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ATAT: Astronomical Transformer for time series and Tabular data

Context. The advent of next-generation survey instruments, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory and its Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), is opening a window for new research in time-domain astronomy. The Extended LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (ELAsTiCC) was created to test the capacity of brokers to deal with a simulated LSST stream. Aims. Our aim is to develop a next-generation model for the classification of variable astronomical objects. We describe ATAT, the Astronomical Transformer for time series And Tabular data, a classification model conceived by the ALeRCE alert broker to classify light curves from next-generation alert streams. ATAT was tested in production during the first round of the ELAsTiCC campaigns. Methods. ATAT consists of two transformer models that encode light curves and features using novel time modulation and quantile feature tokenizer mechanisms, respectively. ATAT was trained on different combinations of light curves, metadata, and features calculated over the light curves. We compare ATAT against the current ALeRCE classifier, a balanced hierarchical random forest (BHRF) trained on human-engineered features derived from light curves and metadata. Results. When trained on light curves and metadata, ATAT achieves a macro F1 score of 82.9 ± 0.4 in 20 classes, outperforming the BHRF model trained on 429 features, which achieves a macro F1 score of 79.4 ± 0.1. Conclusions. The use of transformer multimodal architectures, combining light curves and tabular data, opens new possibilities for classifying alerts from a new generation of large etendue telescopes, such as theVera C. RubinObservatory, in real-world brokering scenarios.

Astronomy & Astrophysics

The Landscape of Thermal Transients from Supernovae Interacting with a Circumstellar Medium

The interaction of supernova ejecta with a surrounding circumstellar medium (CSM) generates a strong shock, which can convert ejecta kinetic energy into observable radiation. Given the diversity of potential CSM structures (arising from diverse mass-loss processes such as late-stage stellar outbursts, binary interaction, and winds), the resulting transients can display a wide range of light-curve morphologies. We provide a framework for classifying the transients arising from interaction with a spherical CSM shell. The light curves are decomposed into five consecutive phases, starting from the onset of interaction and extending through shock breakout and subsequent shock cooling. The relative prominence of each phase in the light curve is determined by two dimensionless quantities representing the CSM-to-ejecta mass ratio η, and the breakout parameter ξ. These two parameters define four light-curve morphology classes, where each class is characterized by the location of the shock breakout and the degree of deceleration as the shock sweeps up the CSM. We compile analytic scaling relations connecting the luminosity and duration of each light-curve phase to the physical parameters. We then run a grid of radiation hydrodynamics simulations for a wide range of ejecta and CSM parameters to numerically explore the landscape of interaction light curves, and to calibrate and confirm the analytic scalings. We connect our theoretical framework to several case studies of observed transients, highlighting the relevance in explaining slow-rising and superluminous supernovae, fast blue optical transients, and double-peaked light curves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

The Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program: slow supernovae show cosmological time dilation out to z ~ 1.

ABSTRACT We present a precise measurement of cosmological time dilation using the light curves of 1504 Type Ia supernovae from the Dark Energy Survey spanning a redshift range $0.1\lesssim z\lesssim 1.2$. We find that the width of supernova light curves is proportional to $(1+z)$, as expected for time dilation due to the expansion of the Universe. Assuming Type Ia supernovae light curves are emitted with a consistent duration $\Delta t_{\rm em}$, and parametrizing the observed duration as $\Delta t_{\rm obs}=\Delta t_{\rm em}(1+z)^b$, we fit for the form of time dilation using two methods. First, we find that a power of $b \approx 1$ minimizes the flux scatter in stacked subsamples of light curves across different redshifts. Secondly, we fit each target supernova to a stacked light curve (stacking all supernovae with observed bandpasses matching that of the target light curve) and find $b=1.003\pm 0.005$ (stat) $\pm \, 0.010$ (sys). Thanks to the large number of supernovae and large redshift-range of the sample, this analysis gives the most precise measurement of cosmological time dilation to date, ruling out any non-time-dilating cosmological models at very high significance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Studying the Power Sources behind Type Ic Supernovae

Astrophysical transients can be powered by a broad range of energy sources, including shock heating (internal and external shocks), decay of radioactive isotopes, and long-lived central engines (magnetar and fallback). The dominant energy source for astrophysical transients depends on the nature of the explosive engine and its progenitor. To model all transients, light-curve codes must include all of these energy sources. Here, we present a supernova light-curve code implementing analytic source models to compare the role of different energy sources in these transients. To demonstrate the utility of this code, we conduct an extensive study of Type Ic broad-line (Ic-BL) supernovae. A diverse set of energy sources have been linked to Ic-BL supernovae, making them an excellent candidate for this light-curve code. In this paper, we explore which features of the explosion (mass, velocity, etc.) affect the Type Ic supernovae light curves, focusing on shock-interaction and radioactive-decay energy sources. Although the explosion properties under both energy sources can be tuned to match the peak emission, matching the light-curve evolution in many Ic-BL supernovae requires fine-tuned conditions. We find that shock interactions in the stellar wind are likely to be the dominant energy source at peak for these supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Millimeter-wave Detections of Symbiotic Stars in SPT and ACT Data

We present the results of a joint targeted search of candidate symbiotic stars at millimeter wavelengths using the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). Candidates are selected from the New Online Database of Symbiotic Variables, restricting to objects that are within either the SPT-3G or ACT~DR6 footprint, covering most of the southern hemisphere and up to a declination of $+20^\circ$. Forced photometry on the 828 candidate symbiotic star locations in SPT and ACT data results in 31 unique objects detected with more than a $3σ$ significance using two frequency bands: 18 confirmed and 13 suspected symbiotic stars. We provide the SPT and ACT 95/98, 150, and 220~GHz light curves, along with optical and infrared light curves from 2016--2026, as well as spectral energy distributions, physical parameters from the literature, and brief summaries regarding the nature of each individual object. Using Herschel SPIRE data from 2013, we place upper limits on millimeter flux for CN Cha near the beginning of the optical rise in its 2012/2013 nova, which suggests a strong variability and lag at millimeter wavelengths and results in a rare observance of a Galactic millimeter slow transient. In addition, we provide coadded thumbnails and light curves for the remaining 797 candidate symbiotic stars that did not pass our detection thresholds. Millimeter-wave emission from symbiotic stars is primarily a combination of free-free emission of the ionization region and optically thick blackbody emission of the cooler dust components of the system. When combined with contemporaneous multi-wavelength observations, millimeter-wave observations can be used to test binary models of symbiotic stars and provide insight on the geometry and physical properties of these systems.

Tandoi, C. [Illinois U., Urbana, Astron. Dept.] (O

Joint Modeling of Quasar Variability and Accretion Disk Reprocessing Using Latent Stochastic Differential Equations

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing, trained with supervised learning on simulated LSST-like 10 yr quasar light curves. We encode the light curves using a transformer encoder, and the driving variability is reconstructed using latent stochastic differential equations, a physically motivated generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding the physical processes of the driving signal and reprocessing into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We demonstrate that our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wave bands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series.

Fagin, Joshua [City Univ. of New York (CUNY), NY (

High-quality Extragalactic Legacy-field Monitoring (HELM) with DECam

High-quality Extragalactic Legacy-field Monitoring (HELM) is a long-term observing program that photometrically monitors several well-studied extragalactic legacy fields with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) imager on the CTIO 4m Blanco telescope. Since Feb 2019, HELM has been monitoring regions within COSMOS, XMM-LSS, CDF-S, S-CVZ, ELAIS-S1, and SDSS Stripe 82 with few-day cadences in the $(u)gri(z)$ bands, over a collective sky area of $\sim 38$ deg${\rm ^2}$. The main science goal of HELM is to provide high-quality optical light curves for a large sample of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and to build decades-long time baselines when combining past and future optical light curves in these legacy fields. These optical images and light curves will facilitate the measurements of AGN reverberation mapping lags, as well as studies of AGN variability and its dependences on accretion properties. In addition, the time-resolved and coadded DECam photometry will enable a broad range of science applications from galaxy evolution to time-domain science. We describe the design and implementation of the program and present the first data release that includes source catalogs and the first $\sim 3.5$ years of light curves during 2019A--2022A.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

ZTF SN Ia DR2: Improved SN Ia colors through expanded dimensionality with SALT3+

Context. Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are a key probe in modern cosmology, as they can be used to measure luminosity distances at gigaparsec scales. Models of their light curves are used to project heterogeneous observed data onto a common basis for analysis. Aims. The SALT model currently used for SN Ia cosmology describes SNe as having two sources of variability, accounted for by a color parameter c , and a “stretch” parameter x 1 . We extend the model to include an additional parameter we label x 2 , to investigate the cosmological impact of currently unaddressed light-curve variability. Methods. We constructed a new SALT model, that we dub “SALT3+”. This model was trained by an improved version of the SALTshaker code, using training data combining a selection of the second data release of cosmological SNe Ia from the Zwicky Transient Facility and the existing SALT3 training compilation. Results. We find additional, coherent variability in supernova light curves beyond SALT3. Most of this variation can be described as phase-dependent variation in g − r and r − i color curves, correlated with a boost in the height of the secondary maximum in i -band. These behaviors correlate with spectral differences, particularly in line velocity. We find that fits with the existing SALT3 model tend to address this excess variation with the color parameter, leading to less informative measurements of supernova color. We find that neglecting the new parameter in light-curve fits leads to a trend in Hubble residuals with x 2 of 0.039 ± 0.005 mag, representing a potential systematic uncertainty. However, we find no evidence of a bias in current cosmological measurements. Conclusions. We conclude that extended SN Ia light-curve models promise mild improvement in the accuracy of color measurements, and corresponding cosmological precision. However, models with more parameters are unlikely to substantially affect current cosmological results.

Kenworthy, W. D. (ORCID:0000000251535983)

The Dark Energy Survey 5-yr photometrically classified type Ia supernovae without host-galaxy redshifts

ABSTRACT Current and future Type Ia Supernova (SN Ia) surveys will need to adopt new approaches to classifying SNe and obtaining their redshifts without spectra if they wish to reach their full potential. We present here a novel approach that uses only photometry to identify SNe Ia in the 5-yr Dark Energy Survey (DES) data set using the SuperNNova classifier. Our approach, which does not rely on any information from the SN host-galaxy, recovers SNe Ia that might otherwise be lost due to a lack of an identifiable host. We select $2{,}298$ high-quality SNe Ia from the DES 5-yr data set an almost complete sample of detected SNe Ia. More than 700 of these have no spectroscopic host redshift and are potentially new SNIa compared to the DES-SN5YR cosmology analysis. To analyse these SNe Ia, we derive their redshifts and properties using only their light curves with a modified version of the SALT2 light-curve fitter. Compared to other DES SN Ia samples with spectroscopic redshifts, our new sample has in average higher redshift, bluer and broader light curves, and fainter host-galaxies. Future surveys such as LSST will also face an additional challenge, the scarcity of spectroscopic resources for follow-up. When applying our novel method to DES data, we reduce the need for follow-up by a factor of four and three for host-galaxy and live SN, respectively, compared to earlier approaches. Our novel method thus leads to better optimization of spectroscopic resources for follow-up.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Calibrating the absolute magnitude of type Ia supernovae in nearby galaxies using [O II ] and implications for H 0

The present state of cosmology is facing a crisis where there is a fundamental disagreement in measurements of the Hubble constant ($H_{0}$), with significant tension between the early and late Universe methods. Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are important to measuring $H_{0}$ through the astronomical distance ladder. However, there remains potential to better standardize SN Ia light curves by using known dependencies on host galaxy properties after the standard light curve width and colour corrections have been applied to the peak SN Ia luminosities. To explore this, we use the 5-yr photometrically identified SNe Ia sample obtained by the Dark Energy Survey, along with host galaxy spectra obtained by the Australian Dark Energy Survey. Using host galaxy spectroscopy, we find a significant trend with the equivalent width (EW) of the [O II ] $\lambda \lambda$ 3727, 29 doublet, a proxy for specific star formation rate, and Hubble residuals. We find that the correlation with [O II ] EW is a powerful alternative to the commonly used mass step after initial light-curve corrections. Applying this [O II ] EW correction to 20 SNe Ia in calibrator galaxies observed with WiFeS, we examined the impact on SN Ia absolute magnitudes and $H_{0}$. Our [O II ] EW corrections result in $H_{0}$ values ranging between 73.04 and 73.51 $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$, with a combined statistical and systematic uncertainty of $\sim 1.31$ $km$ $s^{-1} \, Mpc^{-1}$. However, even with this additional correction, the impact of host galaxy properties in standardizing SNe Ia appears limited in reducing the current tension ($\sim 5\sigma$) with the cosmic microwave background result for $H_{0}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Analysis of Two Models for the Angular Structure of the Outflows Producing the Swift/XRT “Larger-angle Emission” of Gamma-Ray Bursts

The quasi-instantaneous emission from a relativistic surface endowed with a Lorentz factor that decreases away from the outflow symmetry axis can naturally explain the three phases observed by Swift X-Ray Telescope (XRT) in gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and their afterglows (GRB tail, afterglow plateau, and postplateau) based only on the angular change of the relativistic Doppler boost across the outflow surface. We develop further the analytical formalism of the “larger-angle emission” model for the case of “n-exponential” outflows (where the Lorentz factor Γ dependence of the angular location θ is Γ ~ exp{-(θ/θ c ) n }), and compare its ability to account for the X-ray emission of XRT afterglows relative to that of “power-law” outflows (Γ ∼ θ −g ). Power-law outflows yield longer afterglow plateaus, followed by slower postplateau flux decays than n-exponential outflows, features which may be used in identifying which type of angular structure is at work in a given afterglow. Identifying the Γ(θ) angular structure that accommodates XRT light curves is slightly complicated by the fact that the afterglow X-ray light curve is also determined by how two characteristics of the comoving-frame emission spectrum (peak energy $E'_p$ and peak intensity $i'_p$) change with the angular location or, equivalently, with the Lorentz factor. Here, we assume power-law Γ dependences of those spectral characteristics and find that, unlike power-law outflows, n-exponential outflows cannot account for plateaus with a temporal dynamical range larger than 100 (2 dex in logarithmic space). To capture all the information contained in XRT afterglow measurements (0.3–10 keV unabsorbed flux and effective spectral slope), we calculate 0.3 and 10 keV light curves using a broken-power-law emission spectrum of peak energy and low- and high-energy slopes that are derived from the effective slope measured by XRT. This economical peak energy determination is found to be consistent with the results of more expensive spectral fits. The angular distributions of the Lorentz factor, comoving frame peak energy, and peak intensity (Γ(θ), $E'_p$(θ), $i'_p$(θ)) constrain the (yet-to-be determined) convolution of various features of the production of relativistic jets by solar-mass black holes and of their propagation through the progenitor/circumburst medium, while the $E'_p$(Γ) and $i'_p$(Γ) dependences may constrain the GRB dissipation mechanism and the GRB emission process.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

User Guide for BLADE_LC_processor.py

BLADE_LC_processor.py is an optional script within the BLADE (Bolide Light-curve Analysis and Discrimination Explorer) open-source software package. It converts per-event light curve CSVs plus a metadata table into maps, plots, a per-sample trajectory file, and an aggregate summary. It anchors each trajectory at peak brightness, assumes constant speed and entry angle across the event, and propagates altitude and ground track relative to that anchor. The script converts the input azimuth internally to a travel bearing for the map and trajectory. Outputs include event folders with figures and a consolidated CSV containing start, peak, and end altitudes and all original metadata, sorted newest to oldest. For further background, users are referred to the foundational publication: Silber, E. A., Sawal, V. (2025), “BLADE: An Automated Framework for Classifying Light Curves from the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Fireball Database,” The Astronomical Journal, doi: 10.3847/1538-3881/adeb55.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

2D end-to-end modelling of kilonovae from binary neutron star merger remnants

We investigate the kilonova emission resulting from outflows produced in a 3D general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulation of a hypermassive neutron star (HMNS) remnant. We map the outflows into the flash hydrodynamics code to model their expansion in axisymmetry, and study the effects of employing different r-process heating rates. Except for the highest heating rate prescription, we find no significant differences with respect to overall ejecta dynamics and morphology compared to the simulation without heating. Once homologous expansion is attained, typically after ~2s for these ejecta, we map the outflows to the sedona radiative transfer code and compute the spectral evolution of the kilonova and broad-band light curves in various Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) bands. The kilonova properties depend on the remnant lifetime, with peak luminosities and peak time-scales increasing for longer lived remnants that produce more massive ejecta. For all models, there is a strong dependence of both the bolometric and broad-band light curves on the viewing angle. While the short-lived (12 ms) remnant produces higher luminosities when viewed from angles closer to the pole, longer lived remnants (240 ms and 2.5 s) are more luminous when viewed from angles closer to the equator. Our results highlight the importance of self-consistent, long-term modelling of merger ejecta, and taking viewing-angle dependence into account when interpreting observed kilonova light curves. We find that magnetized outflows from an HMNS – if it survives long enough – could explain blue kilonovae, such as the blue emission seen in AT2017gfo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David

Measuring Black Hole Light Echoes with Very Long Baseline Interferometry

Light passing near a black hole can follow multiple paths from an emission source to an observer due to strong gravitational lensing. Photons following different paths take different amounts of time to reach the observer, which produces an echo signature in the image. The characteristic echo delay is determined primarily by the mass of the black hole, but it is also influenced by the black hole spin and inclination to the observer. In the Kerr geometry, echo images are demagnified, rotated, and sheared copies of the direct image and lie within a restricted region of the image. Echo images have exponentially suppressed flux, and temporal correlations within the flow make it challenging to directly detect light echoes from the total light curve. In this Letter, we propose a novel method to search for light echoes by correlating the total light curve with the interferometric signal at high spatial frequencies, which is a proxy for indirect emission. We explore the viability of our method using numerical general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of a near-face-on accretion system scaled to M87-like parameters. We demonstrate that our method can be used to directly infer the echo delay period in simulated data. An echo detection would be clear evidence that we have captured photons that have circled the black hole, and a high-fidelity echo measurement would provide an independent measure of fundamental black hole parameters. Our results suggest that detecting echoes may be achievable through interferometric observations with a modest space-based very long baseline interferometry mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS