Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Lake Long-term”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

A Strategy for Mars Exopaleontology

There is compelling geological evidence that the climate of early Mars was much more Earth-like, with a denser atmosphere and abundant surface water. Given that life developed on the Earth very quickly (between 4.2 and 3.5 Ga), it is quite plausible that life may have also developed on Mars during this early clement period. If Martian life developed, it is likely to have left behind a fossil record. Thus, an important focus for upcoming Mars missions is to explore for an ancient biosphere. This presents a set of goals and problems that are quite distinct from Exobiology. I call this new activity "Exopaleontology", whose core principles derive from studies of the Precambrian fossil record on Earth, biosedimentology and microbial fossilization. Such studies reveal that the most important factor favoring the long-term preservation of microbial fossils is rapid entombment of microorganisms by fine-grained, stable mineral phases such as silica, phosphate, carbonate and metal sulfides. Terrestrial environments where such aqueous mineral phases frequently entomb and preserve microorganisms include subaerial and subaqueous springs and shallow hydrothermal systems, evaporitic alkaline lakes, "hardpan" soils (e.g. calcretes, silcretes, ferracretes), and frozen soils or ground ice. With the exception of ice, which has a short crustal residence time, such deposits am known to retain a record of terrestrial life for billions of years. Current activities seek to refine and apply this strategy to the Mars Global Surveyor missions and beyond. Ongoing studies of microbial fossilization in each of the target environments identified above are aimed at improving our understanding of how biological information is incorporated into aqueous mineral deposits and preserved. Viking data is being used to target sites for high resolution orbital imaging and spectroscopy during upcoming Mars missions. Such data will provide a basis for selecting sites for future landed missions and eventually, sample return.

Farmer, Jack D.↗

GLBRC Soil Yearlong Incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics

Data package for Lipids represent a dynamic, yet stable pool of microbially-derived soil carbon This data is published under a CC0 license. The authors encourage data reuse and request attribution by referencing the below citations for the data packages and associated manuscript. Please cite as: Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. GLBRC Soil Yearlong Incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics. [Data Set] PNNL DataHub. doi: Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. MSV000097435: GLBRC soil yearlong incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics [Data Set] MassIVE. doi:10.25345/C57659T3K Rempfert KR, Bell SL, Kasanke CP, Kyle JE, Hofmockel KS. 2025. Lipids represent a dynamic, yet stable pool of microbially-derived soil carbon. In Prep This data package consists of compound-specific 13C SIP-lipidomics data from a yearlong tracer incubation experiment designed to investigate microbial lipid persistence in switchgrass bioenergy crop soils. In order to explore how lipid structure may modulate the persistence of C in soil lipids, we leveraged soils from two sites (Michigan - sandy texture, Wisconsin - silty texture) operated by the U.S. Department of Energy-funded Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC). These sites had comparable climates, identical management practices, but contrasting soil textures, allowing us to assess the variability of lipid accrual or degradation in soils as well as provide insight regarding the degree to which edaphic properties may regulate the retention of soil lipids. Untargeted lipidomics analyses were performed to identify 13C-labeled lipids in the soil microbiome after long-term incubation. Soils were supplemented with 100 micrograms glucose per gram dry soil (99 atom % 13C or natural abundance for paired control) and incubated; samples were collected two months and one year after glucose addition. Lipid extracts (MPLEx) were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and identified using LIQUID. Calculation of isotopic enrichment of lipids was performed by targeted approach using TarMet to quantify lipid isotopologues and IsoCorrectoR to correct for natural abundance isotopes. Contents: Data package contents reported here are the first version and contain downstream analysis files for the raw LC-MS mass spectrometry files (.mzXML) deposited at the MassIVE database repository under accession MSV000097435 (80 experimental runs; 5.85 GB) | MassIVE DOI: 10.25345/C57659T3K. Support files include the additional data download 'Read Me' file containing data descriptor information. Reported data download contents are structured for compliance with project data sharing guidelines, community standards initiatives, and sponsor stakeholder policies supporting FAIR data principles. Data processing software, analysis tools, and data workflows are listed below corresponding to the host repository long-term location. Available Data Downloads (0.3 GB): "GLBRC soil yearlong incubation 13C-SIP-Lipidomics_readme.txt" - 'Read Me' data package content file (txt) "GLBRC_DataPackage_analysis files" - Data processing files (Rmd) and saved intermediate data processing outputs (rds, csv, xlsx) "GLBRC_13C_lipidomics_dataset.xlsx" - processed data in tabular format (xlsx) Linked Software: LIQUID LC-MS Analysis Software | 10.5281/zenodo.6459462 Lipid Mini-On Software Tools | 10.5281/zenodo.1492803 pmartR Omics Statistical Software | 10.5281/zenodo.6108667 xcms (v4.3.3) TarMet (v1.1.1) IsoCorrectoR (1.24.0) Funding Acknowledgments: This research was supported by an Early Career Research Program award funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) Genomic Science program under FWP 68292, FWP 07880 and EMSL Exploratory Research Project 51095. A portion of this work was performed in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, a national scientific user facility sponsored by OBER and located at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). PNNL is a multi-program national laboratory operated by Battelle for the DOE under Contract DE-AC05-76RLO1830.

Rempfert, Kaitlin R [Pacific Northwest National La↗

Mesospheric and lower thermospheric winds, temperatures densities, and volume emission rates

This memo has been written to report on the progress made under grant NAG1-1315 and to request a continuation of funding for this work. Our proposal involved a plan to utilize an existing ground-based chain of optical and radar facilities to assemble a comprehensive, long-term, multi-station base of upper-mesospheric and lower thermospheric measurements of neutral winds, temperatures, and volume emission rates that can be used to make comparisons with data from the HRDI and WINDII instruments that are flying aboard the UARS spacecraft. The ground-based, optical data were to be obtained on a routine basis from five geographically separated observatories at: Thule, Greenland; Sondrestrom, Greenland; Watson Lake, Yukon (replacing Calgary, Alberta); Ann Arbor, Michigan; and Maynooth, Eire. Several different optical instruments are present at these sites: the total array of instruments is comprised of five Fabry-Perot interferometers, two half meter Ebert-Fastie spectrometers, one all-sky CCD imager, and a near infra-red Michelson Fourier transform spectrometer. In addition to these optical instruments, data were to be obtained from the incoherent scatter radar at Sondrestrom, Greenland. These radar measurements are comprised of neutral winds, temperatures, and densities from altitudes between approximately 70 - 120 km. The optical measurements are obtained locally from specific altitudes depending on the emission line studied. For example, red line optical data come from about 220 km. In this report we summarize the progress made in obtaining these data and relate it to the specific tasks outlined in the original grant application. These tasks are discussed in the next section. Progress towards their completion is discussed in section three, while future plans and summary are described in section four.

Killeen, Timothy L.↗

Farm Practice Typologies as a Strategy for Management-Relevant Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in the Great Lakes Region (Version 1) [Dataset]

Dataset overview and development This dataset provides spatially explicit agricultural land-use and land-management typologies developed for the Great Lakes Region (GLR) at the farm-parcel level. The typologies were designed to characterize not only the land-use and land-cover (LULC) associated with individual agricultural farm parcels, but also the land-management practices (LMPs), including irrigation, tile drainage, and conservation easements, occurring within those parcels and how these characteristics change through time. The dataset contains four related typology products: Annual integrated typology – describes the combined LULC and land-management characteristics for each farm parcel for individual years. LULC transition typology – describes the temporal pattern of LULC change for each farm parcel across the study period (2008-2023). LMP trend typology – describes the temporal pattern in the occurrence of LMPs for each farm parcel across the study period. Multi-year integrated typology – combines the LULC transition typology and LMP trend typology to provide an integrated characterization of long-term land-use and management patterns. Purpose of the dataset The purpose of these products is to provide a management-relevant integrated and consistent framework for evaluating the spatial and temporal organization of agricultural landscapes across the GLR. The resulting typologies can: support landscape-scale environmental and land-use analysis; provide spatial information relevant to land-management strategies, conservation planning, policy development, and program evaluation; characterize spatial patterns of agricultural land use and management; examine changes in agricultural landscapes through time; and identify persistent, transitional, and changing agricultural systems. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details.

Agriculture↗

Two decades of bacterial ecology and evolution in a freshwater lake

Ecology and evolution are considered distinct processes that interact on contemporary time scales in microbiomes. Here, to observe these processes in a natural system, we collected a two-decade, 471-metagenome time series from Lake Mendota (Wisconsin, USA). We assembled 2,855 species-representative genomes and found that genomic change was common and frequent. By tracking strain composition via single nucleotide variants, we identified cyclical seasonal patterns in 80% and decadal shifts in 20% of species. In the dominant freshwater family Nanopelagicaceae, environmental extremes coincided with shifts in strain composition and positive selection of amino acid and nucleic acid metabolism genes. Further, these genes identify organic nitrogen compounds as potential drivers of freshwater responses to global change. Seasonal and long-term strain dynamics could be regarded as ecological processes or, equivalently, as evolutionary change. Rather than as distinct interacting processes, we propose a conceptualization of ecology and evolution as a continuum to better describe change in microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term productivity in the cryptoendolithic microbial community of the Ross Desert, Antarctica

Annual gross productivity of the lichen-dominated cryptoendolithic community was calculated from a computer analysis of photosynthetic response based on laboratory measurements of CO2 exchange and three years (1985-1988) of field nanoclimate data. Photosynthetic optimum increased from -3 to 2 degrees C between irradiance levels of 100 and 1500 micromoles photons m-2 s-1, while the upper compensation point rose from 1 to 17 degrees C. The mean yearly total time available for metabolic activity (temperature above -10 degrees C and moisture present) was 771.3 h for horizontal rock, 421.5 h for northeast-oriented sloped rock, and 1042.2 h for a small depression in horizontal rock (the characteristic site of occasional lichen apothecia). The calculated mean gross productivity value for a horizontal rock was 1215 mg C m-2 y-1, and net photosynthetic gain was 606 mg C m-2 y-1. Net ecosystem productivity (annual accretion of cellular biomass) estimated from long-term events amounted to only about 3 mg C m-2 y-1. The difference between these two values may represent the long-term metabolic costs of the frequent dehydration-rehydration and freezing-thawing cycles or of overwintering, and may account for the leaching of organic substances to the rock. The yearly gross productivity of the cryptoendolithic microbial community of the entire Ross Desert area was estimated at approximately 120,000-180,000 kg C. Of this, 600-900 kg C is in microbial biomass, and much of the rest is soluble compounds that leach into the rocks and possibly percolate to the valleys, providing a source of organic matter for lakes, rivers, and soils.

NASA Program Exobiology↗

Microbial Fossilization in Mineralizing Environments: Relevance for Mars "EXOPALEONTOLOGY"

The goals of post-Viking exobiology include the search for a Martian fossil record. How can we optimize future exploration efforts to search for fossils on Mars? The Precambrian fossil record indicates that key factors for the long-term preservation of microbial fossils include: 1) the rapid entombment and/or replacement of organisms and organic matter by fine-grained, stable mineral phases (e.g. silica, phosphate, and to a lesser extent, carbonate), 2) low-permeability host sediments (maintaining a closed chemical system during early diagenesis), and 3) shallow burial (maintaining post-depositional temperatures and pressures within the stability range for complex organic molecules). Modem terrestrial environments where early mineralization commonly occurs in association with microbial organisms include: subaerial thermal springs and shallow hydrothermal systems, sub-lacustrine springs and evaporites of alkaline lakes, and subsoil environments where hardpans (e.g. calcretes, silcretes) and duricrusts form. Studies of microbial fossilization in such environments provide important insights preservation patterns in Precambrian rocks, while also playing a role in the development of strategies for Mars exopaleontology. The refinement of site priorities for Mars exopaleontology is expected to benefit greatly from high resolution imaging and altimetry acquired during upcoming orbital missions, and especially infrared and gamma ray spectral data needed for determining surface composition. In anticipation of future orbital missions, constraints for identifying high priority mineral deposits on Mars are being developed through analog remote sensing studies of key mineralizing environments on Earth.

Farmer, Jack D.↗

A 12,000-year record of vertical deformation across the Yellowstone caldera margin: The shorelines of Yellowstone Lake

The 600 ka Yellowstone caldera exhibits several signs of unrest, the most evident of which is historic ground deformation including both uplift and subsidence. We document deformation in the area of the southern caldera across approximately 12,000 years using the postglactic shoreline terraces of Yellowstone Lake. Raised shoreline elevations were interpreted from 230 leveling profiles surveyed across flights of terraces, with an accuracy of +/- 0.5 m. Of about 11 recognizable terraces, the five most continuous raised shorelines were correlated around the lake basin to reveal deformation patterns. Net deformation over the past approximatley 3 kyr has been dominantly up within the caldera interior and slightly down along the caldera rim, relative to the extracaldera region. This uplift is roughly similar to the historic pattern and may largely represent the effects of the most recent inflation episode. Subtraction of the total estimated magnitude of inflation in this epsiode suggests that the overall trend of postglacial deformation has been subsidence. The cause of this trend is undetermined but is most likely related to the effects of regional extension and long-term cooling within the Yellowstone caldera.

Locke, William W.↗

National Hydropower Fish Passage Database User's Guide and Methodology

Fish passage facilities are used to mitigate the impacts of hydropower dams on migratory fish in rivers, but information on the location, types, and characteristics of this infrastructure is incomplete at a national scale. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory partnered with federal agency and industry stakeholders to create the first national-scale database of fish passage infrastructure at U.S. hydropower developments. This database contains information of great value to a broad range of stakeholders; it includes fish passage facility engineering characteristics, targeted fish species, operational schedules, and costs. This data resource addresses a large gap in knowledge of the deployment of fish passage technology and is freely available to members of the hydropower community, including federal and state regulators and resource agencies, non-governmental organizations, industry, and other user groups to support project planning and regulatory (re)licensing activities. This database supports the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office objective to develop decision support tools and data resources that improve environmental performance and ensure hydropower’s long-term value to the American public.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Global ozone long-term trends from satellite measurements and the response to solar activity variations

Analysis of global ozone variations for the period April 1970 to December 1975 was performed by using the reprocessed Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) measurements of total ozone. A correlation coefficient of 0.97 is found between the 6-month running mean of global mean total ozone (filtered for mean semiannual, annual, and quasibiennial variations) and the 10.7-cm solar activity index. Correcting ozone for a time-dependent latitudinal bias relative to Dobson ozone measurements reduces to 2-3% the global mean ozone variation over the solar cycle. The solar ultraviolet variability required in a one-dimensional time-dependent radiative photochemical model to account for the observed ozone variation appears to be consistent with recent solar UV observations.

Keating, G. M.↗

ORNL National Hydropower Fish Passage Database

Fish passage facilities are used to mitigate impacts of hydropower dams to migratory fish in rivers, but information on the location, types, and characteristics of this infrastructure is incomplete at a national scale. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) partnered with fish passage engineers and hydropower experts from the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NOAA NMFS), and the Low Impact Hydropower Institute (LIHI) to create the first national scale database of fish passage infrastructure at US hydropower developments. This database consists of the ORNL_Fish_Passage_Dataset.zip file with 13 individual .csv files that contain information on fish passage facility engineering characteristics, targeted fish species, operational schedule, and costs. which is of great value to a diverse range of stakeholders. This information was collected between December 2023 and July 2025 from project partners, other hydropower stakeholders, online datasets available for download, and a stakeholder questionnaire Information. This data resource addresses a large gap in knowledge of the deployment of fish passage technology and is freely available to members of the hydropower community, including federal and state regulators and resource agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), industry, and other user groups to support project planning and regulatory (re)licensing activities. This database supports the US Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office objective to develop decision support tools and data resources that improve environmental performance and ensure hydropower’s long-term value to the American public.

Matson, Paul [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)↗

Switchgrass ( Panicum Virgatum ) and Miscanthus ( Miscanthus × Giganteus ) Long-Term Yield Patterns Reveal Consistent Productivity Declines

Perennial grasses like switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) and miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus ) are expected to supply a substantial amount of the United States bioeconomy's feedstock demand. However, uncertainties around their long-term yields challenge the viability of their potential and limit their wider adoption. To resolve their long-term yield patterns, we analyzed over 200 plantings of switchgrass and miscanthus across Michigan and Wisconsin, USA, measured over 5–15 years. We found a consistent two-phase long-term yield dynamic; during a yield-building phase , peak yields occurred within 4–5 years after planting, followed by a yield-decline phase in which switchgrass and miscanthus lost 30%–47% and 14%–40% of peak yields, respectively. Among the potential drivers of this dynamic and the yield decline, we found that weather conditions had little impact, as the variation across years was not large enough to drive the observed yield differences. Added nitrogen increased peak yields by 10%–20% and attenuated the yield decline by 20%–50%. However, since fertilized stands still showed a yield decline, other factors became limiting as stands aged. This conserved long-term yield dynamic has direct implications on management. A farm-to-gate economic analysis suggests replanting switchgrass and miscanthus 5 and 9 years following their peak yields maximizes profit over a 30-year time horizon. Results call for further management and breeding strategies to mitigate the yield-decline phase, and for reparameterization of global bioenergy models with carbon capture and storage, which may overestimate yields and the economic and environmental benefits of crops grown for bioenergy feedstocks.

bioenergy↗

Enhancing Oxygen Evolution Reaction and Stability in Proton-Conducting Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells (p-SOECs) via a Porous Gadolinium-Doped Ceria Interlayer

Proton-conducting solid oxide electrolysis cells (p-SOECs) offer a promising pathway for intermediate temperature (400-600 °C) hydrogen production. However, they still face critical challenges related to sluggish oxygen evolution reaction (OER) kinetics and low Faradaic efficiencies. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that introducing a thin (~0.8 µm) porous Gd 0.1 Ce 0.9 O 1.95 (GDC) interlayer between a BaCo 0.8 Zr 0.1 Zn 0.1 O 3-δ (BCZZ) oxygen electrode and electrolyte significantly enhances p-SOEC performance. The GDC interlayer reduces polarization resistance by 48% (0.54 to 0.28 O cm 2 ) and increases Faradaic efficiency from 63% to 81% at -0.8 A/cm 2 and 600 °C. GDC interlayer p-SOECs display elevated effective H 2 current densities compared to control p-SOECs and reach up to -1.22 A/cm 2 at 1.3 V. Mechanistic studies on the interactions between GDC and BCZZ reveal that GDC intrinsically promotes OER kinetics by significantly reducing the polarization activation energy (Ea p ), dropping from 1.45 to 1.22 eV for full p-SOECs and 0.98 to 0.76 eV for symmetric cells. This promotional effect is localized in the electrochemically active region near the electrolyte interface. Durability testing for over 1500 hours under 50% H 2 O conditions indicates that the GDC interlayer also improves long-term stability, with a degradation rate 53% lower than control p-SOECs. By pinpointing the interfacial region where GDC exerts its promotional effect, highlighting its role in enhancing OER kinetics, and establishing interlayer engineering as a powerful technique, this work provides a unified pathway to simultaneously improve p-SOEC activity, Faradaic efficiency, and durability.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and grazing pressure on the net ecosystem carbon balance of grazing lands across the continental United States

Grazing lands cover approximately one-third of the contiguous United States, support much of the nation's beef production, and are an important component of the U.S. terrestrial carbon budget. In this study, we quantified net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), the net status of grazing lands as a carbon sink (C-sink) or source (C-source) and a key determinant of soil health and productivity. Our primary objective was to synthesize multiple years of annual NECB across heterogeneous grazing lands across the continental U.S and evaluate annual NECB against physical drivers (mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), vegetation, and moisture condition) and management practices (grazing pressure index (GPI) and fertilization history). We hypothesized that (1) NECB is higher in mesic and fertilized grasslands; (2) NECB increases with MAP and MAT but decreases with GPI; and (3) interactive effects exist among MAP, MAT, and GPI. Using carbon fluxes measured by eddy covariance towers and methane emissions including both enteric methane and manure derived from stocking rates across seven USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research Network sites, we found: (1) grazing lands were a C-sink or carbon neutral at most sites; (2) vegetation type, moisture conditions, or fertilization had no significant effect on NECB; (3) NECB increased with MAP and MAT, but decreased with a higher GPI; and (4) MAT had a significant positive effect on NECB when MAP exceeded 750 mm (greater water availability). The effect of GPI on NECB was significantly negative when MAP was below 1000 mm, significantly negative when MAT < 12 °C and significantly positive when MAT > 16 °C. Thus, most grazing lands in our study acted as C-sinks unless water deficit, low temperature, or heavy grazing were interactively present. Understanding how climate and management influence NECB of grazing lands is key to maintaining resilient agroecosystems that secure beef production and sustain rural prosperity.

LTAR↗

Challenges of open data in aquatic sciences: issues faced by data users and data providers

Free use and redistribution of data (i.e., Open Data) increases the reproducibility, transparency, and pace of aquatic sciences research. However, barriers to both data users and data providers may limit the adoption of Open Data practices. Here, we describe common Open Data challenges faced by data users and data providers within the aquatic sciences community (i.e., oceanography, limnology, hydrology, and others). These challenges were synthesized from literature, authors’ experiences, and a broad survey of 174 data users and data providers across academia, government agencies, industry, and other sectors. Through this work, we identified seven main challenges: 1) metadata shortcomings, 2) variable data quality and reusability, 3) open data inaccessibility, 4) lack of standardization, 5) authorship and acknowledgement issues 6) lack of funding, and 7) unequal barriers around the globe. Our key recommendation is to improve resources to advance Open Data practices. This includes dedicated funds for capacity building, hiring and maintaining of skilled personnel, and robust digital infrastructures for preparation, storage, and long-term maintenance of Open Data. Further, to incentivize data sharing we reinforce the need for standardized best practices to handle data acknowledgement and citations for both data users and data providers. We also highlight and discuss regional disparities in resources and research practices within a global perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Standard Library Plant Controller Model Specification for a Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource (REPCGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library plant controller model to interface with the grid-forming hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control algorithms to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Standard Library Grid-Forming Hybrid Control Inverter-Based Resource Model Specification (REGFM_C1)

This document describes a standard library grid-forming (GFM) hybrid control inverter-based resource (IBR) model. The GFM hybrid control approach implements both a typical GFM control and a typical grid-following (GFL) control inside one single inverter simultaneously, so that it can take advantage of both methods without comprising the benefits of a typical GFM. The initial version of model specification was jointly developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Tesla Energy, and EPRI, and it was revised multiple times later to incorporate suggestions from WECC MVS members. Tesla Energy provided main control blocks to support the development of this model specification. This standard library model is developed to help the utility industry better understand the GFM technology. The model could be used to represent equipment for long-term planning studies where vendor-specific models are not available. As equipment matures and improves, standard library models will be updated to capture the new functionalities of GFMs. It is not intended that these models will always remain representative of all future GFM technologies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗