SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “LCOE”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Challenging conventional assumptions in PV: a high-throughput open-air approach to low-cost perovskite module production

Perovskite solar modules (PSMs) offer a promising pathway to low-cost photovoltaics, yet their commercialization is challenged by manufacturing scalability, device uniformity, additive costs, interlayer complexity, and module stability. This study introduces a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of single junction PSM's and projections for tandem perovskite-Si modules that integrate all materials and manufacturing steps, module performances, projected lifetimes, and manufacturing costs across scales. Here, we highlight an open-air manufacturing approach to fabricate all active layers of serially interconnected PSMs, including electrodes and charge transport layers, enabling high-throughput production without inert or vacuum environments. The analysis reveals two orders of magnitude throughput enhancement and cost reductions of 24% in all-open-air production, escalating to over 60% at 1 GW factory capacity compared to conventional methods. Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) projections for utility-scale installations over 30 years, accounting for module replacement and recycling, demonstrate the potential to achieve the 2030 US target of $0.03 per kWh with realistic 7–11-year PSM lifetimes, outperforming incumbent silicon-based modules. Neither four terminal (4T) nor two terminal (2T) tandem-Si PSMs improve over single junction perovskite or silicon LCOE regardless of higher efficiencies at any modeled lifetime. Addressing PSM technical challenges with a cost-modeling framework guides commercialization efforts and provides a convincing pathway for challenging incumbent Si-based PV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recyclable Design for Retaining High Solar Absorptivity of the Media in CSP

Efficient thermal energy storage is pivotal to lowering the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In solid-particle systems, however, prolonged high-temperature service degrades particle solar absorptivity, eroding overall efficiency. This project demonstrates a hydrogen-assisted recovery process that reliably restores absorptivity to >90 %, offering a practical route to sustain long-term CSP performance. Bench-scale investigations mapped the reduction kinetics of optically faded particles across hydrogen concentrations, temperatures, and residence times. Coupling mass-spectrometric monitoring with machine-learning optimization minimized energy demand while maximizing absorptivity gain. The resulting process window—moderate hydrogen partial pressures, 15–30 min dwell times, and temperatures well below initial calcination levels—cuts energy consumption well below that of incumbent re-blackening methods. A prototype recovery reactor processed multiple 2 kg batches with repeatable outcomes, confirming scalability and operational robustness. Integrated techno-economic analysis indicates material and operating cost reductions exceeding 15 % relative to conventional particle replacement or chemical re-coating, translating directly into lower LCOE for next-generation CSP facilities. By uniting fundamental reaction-kinetics insight with pragmatic engineering, this work advances the solid-particle pathway, delivering a cost-effective, field-deployable solution to one of CSP’s key durability challenges and strengthening the commercial outlook for high-temperature renewable power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variable Curvature Pultruded Vertical Axis Wind Blades

XFlow Energy is developing a floating offshore vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) enabling a 70% reduction in the levelized cost of energy compared to floating horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs). While the wind industry has historically been successful at lowering the cost of terrestrial wind systems, there are no scalable, economically viable floating wind solutions on the market with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of current floating offshore solutions is $200/MWh (Musial 2022). Low-cost blade production is one of the key technologies for realizing this target LCOE reduction. The proposed design uses a constant cross-section blade, enabling the use of pultrusion, a continuous, automated, mold-free production method. By employing blades with variable curvature, XFlow can minimize the bending stresses in the blades, allowing for light-weighting. Constant curvature pultrusion has been demonstrated on hollow sections. Variable curvature pultrusion has been demonstrated on solid sections. This project aims to develop a method of variable curvature pultrusion for hollow sections, as required for mass-optimal VAWT blades.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variable Curvature Pultruded Vertical Axis Wind Blades

XFlow Energy is developing a floating offshore vertical-axis wind turbine (VAWT) enabling a 70% reduction in the levelized cost of energy compared to floating horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs). While the wind industry has historically been successful at lowering the cost of terrestrial wind systems, there are no scalable, economically viable floating wind solutions on the market with the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of current floating offshore solutions is $\$$200/MWh (Musial 2022). Low-cost blade production is one of the key technologies for realizing this target LCOE reduction. The proposed design uses a constant cross-section blade, enabling the use of pultrusion, a continuous, automated, mold-free production method. By employing blades with variable curvature, XFlow can minimize the bending stresses in the blades, allowing for light-weighting. Constant curvature pultrusion has been demonstrated on hollow sections. Variable curvature pultrusion has been demonstrated on solid sections. This project aims to develop a method of variable curvature pultrusion for hollow sections, as required for mass-optimal VAWT blades.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Front-of-Meter Model Results

These files contains aggregations of key variables from the NREL Distributed Wind Futures Study using full parcel level data. These variables describe total technical and economic potential for distributed wind turbine deployment. Aggregations are available at the (1) county, (2) zipcode (zip code tabulation area or zcta), and (3) US Census block group level. Each scenario is coded with the scenario name (e.g., baseline) and year (e.g., 2022). Those files postfixed with 'econpot' contain results for only those parcels that are economically viable while the files postfixed with 'techpot' include results for all parcels that are technically feasible. Hence these correspond to technoeconomic and technical potential respectively. The data are available as CSV or Geopackage. Columns in the files are as follows: * geoid: geographic identifier (FIPS code or similar) * min_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW using turbines downsized to demand when appropriate * max_techpot_sum_kw: technical potential for all parcels in kW without downsizing turbines * aep_sum_kwh: annual energy production estimate in kWh * cf_mean_ratio: mean capacity factor * lcoe_mean_cents_per_kwh: mean levelized cost of energy for parcels in geography in cents per kWh * lcoe_std_cents_per_kwh: standard deviation of the above * parcel_area_sum_acres: total area of viable parcels in acres * n_turbines: number of cited turbines (one per viable parcel currently) Note: These are preliminary results from the full-parcel 2024 update of the Distributed Wind Energy Futures study. Please take care when making use of the data, and feel free to contact the team with any questions. Full documentation in support of these data is in progress and will follow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Behind-the-Meter Model Results

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Viability Assessment of Wind and Solar Renewable Energy Generation in Support of Nationwide Vehicle Electrification

In 2022, the U.S. transportation sector was the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the country, with the combination of passenger and commercial vehicles contributing 80% of these emissions. As adoption of passenger electric vehicles continues to climb, sights are being set on the electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicle (HDCV) fleets. The sustainability of these shifts relies in part on the addition of significant renewable energy generation resources to both bolster the grid in the face of increased demand, and to prevent a shift in the source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to the grid, as opposed to a true net reduction. Additionally, it is necessary to quantify the variations in economic viability across the country for these technologies as it pertains to their productive capabilities. Doing so will encourage investment and ensure that the transition to electrified HDCV fleets is commercially viable, as well as sustainable. In an effort to meet these goals, multiple computational frameworks are used to locate suitable land for renewable infrastructure development, and to quantify spatiotemporal variations in the potential energy generation and financial viability of development sites across the Unites States. First, the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion tool (OR-SAGE) is used to assess the suitability of land for potential wind and solar energy development across the contiguous U.S. From there, resource data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) are used in concert with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Renewable Energy Potential (ReV) model to calculate the variation in potential generation capacity for each resource. Additionally, the capital and operational expenditures are calculated for an example configuration of each renewable technology. These measures are then used to calculate the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of potential sites. All of these results are then processed and analyzed to determine where in the U.S. solar and wind energy are most viable. This viability is based on available generation potential, consistency and stability of energy generation over time, and economic viability with respect to LCOE.

Miller, Brandon [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000300169201)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reference floating wind array designs for three representative regions

This work presents the systematic development of three open-source reference floating wind array designs. The designs are tailored to representative site conditions for three regions of the United States: Humboldt Bay off the coast of California, the Gulf of Maine, and the Gulf of America. We adopted existing reference designs for the individual 15 MW turbines, semisubmersible floating platforms, substations, mooring systems, and power cables – integrating and adapting them as needed for each location. We adapted existing dynamic cable designs to use larger conductor sizes to meet the arrays' power transmission requirements, and we set up redundant mooring systems for each substation. The layout of each array is a uniform-grid design optimized to approximately minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) within a square lease area while satisfying spatial constraints. These constraints ensure adequate clearances between adjacent turbines and between underwater components during the layout optimization to prevent clashing and ensure that all components reside within the lease boundaries. Substations are included to allow accounting for intra-array cable costs. They are placed within the uniform grid to maintain the navigability of the arrays. For each feasible layout considered, annual energy production and cable routing costs are calculated and updated in the LCOE objective function. After the optimization, we refined the cable routing with a mix of algorithmic and manual methods to ensure that the cables avoid mooring system components and approach the substation with adequate clearances. We confirmed the suitability of each reference array's layout by comparing the wake losses at each wind heading angle to the wind rose, observing that the optimized layouts largely avoid wake losses in the predominant wind directions. These reference arrays provide open-source baseline designs to enable future research and innovation of floating wind technology at the array scale.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area: Preprint

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs drilled in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated including a single, double, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within area is characterized by deep, hot (> 200degreesC) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lies within a target depth of 6 km where temperatures are estimated to approach 300degreesC. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down technoeconomic analysis model. The results show that the performance and cost optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60degreesC/km. By injecting 20 degreesC-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWh and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal and Well Flow Performance of Closed-Loop Geothermal in the Wattenberg Area

Closed-loop geothermal systems provide an alternative to resource-constrained hydrothermal systems and stimulation-intensive enhanced geothermal systems. In this work, we apply the slender-body theory (SBT) model, to simulate the well flow and heat transfer performance of U-loop well designs in the Wattenberg area of the Denver-Julesburg Basin. Three U-loop well patterns are investigated, including a single-, double-, and multi-lateral design. The subsurface within the area of interest is characterized by deep, hot (> 200 degrees C) igneous/metamorphic basement rock underlying multiple sedimentary formations. The lateral section(s) of the U-loop lie(s) within a target depth of 6 km, where temperatures are estimated to approach 300 degrees C. As a base case, conduction-only heat transfer is investigated through simulations with the SBT model within U-loops with open-hole laterals that exchange heat directly with the hot, dry rock using water as a working fluid. The utilization of supercritical CO2 as a heat transfer fluid is also considered. For each scenario, the system performance in terms of annual heat production and temperature profile over a 20-year project lifetime are assessed. Also, the levelized costs of heat and electricity (LCOH and LCOE) are determined using a top-down techno-economic analysis model. The results show that the performance- and cost-optimized U-loop design is one having an injection-production well spacing of 1,000 meters with ten 50-meter-spaced laterals that traverse a subsurface system with a temperature gradient of 60 degrees C/km. By injecting 20 degrees C-water at a rate of 60 kg/s through this loop, an average heat production of 19 MWth (i.e., 2.2 MWe net plant output) can be achieved, resulting in an LCOE and LCOH of $136/MWhe and $1.53/GJ, respectively, over a 20-year project life.

closed-loop geothermal↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Viability of Flexible Dispatch of Unconventional Geothermal Systems

Flexible geothermal operations could boost project returns through the allocation of improved power purchase agreements and/or exploitation of power price arbitrage opportunities. In this study, we investigated the techno-economic feasibility of variable flow rate control and time-of-day pricing in closed-loop geothermal systems. We considered U-shaped multilateral system configurations and modeled a variety of technical system parameters. These designs were simulated using a slender-body theory (SBT) model for transient heat transfer and fluid flow. This subsurface model was integrated into the flexible geothermal economic model (FGEM) tool to evaluate the overall flexible geothermal system techno-economics. Future hourly ambient temperature conditions were based on the Sup3rCC dataset. Published datasets were used for future hourly wholesale electricity prices. We analyzed four operating strategies: 1) baseload operation, 2) seasonal dispatch (high flow rate during summer and nominal flow rate during the rest of the year), 3) net generation maximization by varying flow rate to maximize net power output, and 4) revenue maximization by varying flow rate to maximize revenue. We ran all four scenarios for a multiloop configuration with 12 lateral passes, 7-km vertical depth and 87-km total drilling length. Furthermore, we assumed a 60 degrees C/km geothermal gradient and ambient temperature and wholesale electricity prices for New Mexico as a typical state location. The nominal flow rate was set to 80 kg/s. When considering drilling costs of $1,000/m and a discount rate of 7%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of ~$150/MWh. When considering project return on investment (ROI), defined as lifetime net income divided by upfront capital costs, all flexible operation scenarios performed better than the base case scenario. The highest ROI of 80% was obtained with the revenue maximization scenario. With drilling costs of $200/m and a discount rate of 5%, the generation maximization scenario resulted in LCOE of $49/MWh.

flexible geothermal↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Cost-Competitive Microreactors

To assess the cost competitiveness of microreactors, a new tool integrating reactor design calculations with economic models was developed. Using detailed cost data and design specifications from the MARVEL project (85 kWth), the tool estimates costs for a more representative commercial microreactor (20 MWth). The LCOE for a 20 MWth MARVEL-like reactor is estimated at $236/MWh, with an overnight cost of about $12,000/kW (excluding fuel). Mass production could reduce costs by 70%, making the 10th unit cost around $3,700/kWe, which is economically competitive. The new neutronics-economics coupling tool also enables studying the impact of the design parameters on the economic figures of merit. The impact of changing the enrichment and reactor capacity on the LCOE has been studied.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

NG-CT Peaker Upgrades with Bottoming Cycle: Preliminary Analysis

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has conducted a preliminary analysis exploring a significant opportunity to increase the nation's power grid capacity and reliability. The study focuses on retrofitting under-utilized natural gas combustion turbines (NG-CTs), often called "peaker" plants, with a bottoming cycle to capture waste heat and generate additional electricity. This analysis shows that upgrading these existing assets could add approximately 26,250 MW of new power capacity across the United States. A detailed study of the PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest grid operator, confirmed the benefits of these upgrades. Key findings for the PJM region include: - A median increase in the plants' capacity factor by 17 percentage points. - A projected 36.2% median reduction in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the upgraded plants, with nearly 88% of them expected to break even. - An average reduction in the regional wholesale price of electricity by approximately 3.0% in the year 2030. - A significant boost to grid reliability, with a 46% reduction in projected Loss of Load Hours (LOLH). These findings suggest that retrofitting peaker plants is a promising and economically viable strategy to enhance grid performance, reduce electricity costs, and meet future demand without the challenges associated with building entirely new facilities.

bottoming cycle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Development of a High-Efficiency Hybrid Dry Cooler System for sCO 2 Power Cycles in CSP Applications

This project addressed a major gap in supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) power cycle research by focusing on the pre-cooler, a component that had received little attention despite its significant impact on cycle efficiency and plant economics. The team developed a compact dry cooler using brazed/diffusion-bonded microchannel passages paired with formed air-side fins, advancing the technology from TRL-2 toward commercial readiness. Compared to conventional fin-tube coolers, the design cuts installation footprint by roughly half for 10+ MWth systems while achieving better heat transfer and lower approach temperatures, translating into a projected LCOE reduction from 6.04 ¢/kWh to between 5.85 and 5.94 ¢/kWh. While fabrication of an aluminum MW-scale prototype revealed brazing and sealing challenges at larger scales, lessons learned informed a subsequent 1 MWth unit that was successfully built and delivered for integration into Sandia's Gen3 Particle Pilot Plant, advancing the technology to TRL-7 with a path toward TRL-8 pending successful testing.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗