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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgement↗
NASA NTRS1975

Judgments of aircraft noise in a traffic noise background

An investigation was conducted to determine subjective response to aircraft noise in different road traffic backgrounds. In addition, two laboratory techniques for presenting the aircraft noise with the background noise were evaluated. For one technique, the background noise was continuous over an entire test session; for the other, the background noise level was changed with each aircraft noise during a session. Subjective response to aircraft noise was found to decrease with increasing background noise level, for a range of typical indoor noise levels. Subjective response was found to be highly correlated with the Noise Pollution Level (NPL) measurement scale.

Powell, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Difference thresholds for judgments of sink rate during the flare

Past studies have shown that touchdown rates of descent (sink rates) are higher in aircraft simulators than in aircraft under similar conditions. The objective of this paper was to use a psychophysical technique to investigate a pilot's ability to distinguish between two different sink rates close to the ground. The pilots observed a collimated computer graphics display of a typical runway with edge, zone, and centerline lights. The results showed that with a forward velocity of 120 knots, pilots could reliably distinguish between a sink rate of 0.5 m/sec (1.7 ft/sec) and 0.9 m/sec (2.9 ft/sec). The results also showed that the absolute rate of sink did not significantly affect the perception of sink rate. Time of sink and total height drop during the sink did affect the minimum detectable difference between sink rates (the differential threshold). The effects were such that a greater time of sink and greater height drop produced lower thresholds

Palmer, E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Judgments of natural and anomalous trajectories in the presence and absence of motion

Three experiments using McCloskey's curved tube problem, in which people are asked to predict the path that a ball takes when it is shot through a tube curved in a 'C' or spiral, are reported. The first experiment compared the perceptual and representational competencies of observers in recognizing the natural trajectory of the ball, and the second examined the competencies of children on this problem. The third experiment attempted to enhance the representational competence of observers by encouraging them to use a mental imagery approach to the problem. The subjects were presented with both on-going events and with static representations of the event. Men performed better than women under both these conditions, a result not attributable to formal instruction in physics. Children showed no gender effect. The use of mental imagery did not enhance performance on the static test.

Kaiser, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Expert systems should be more accurate than human experts - Evaluation procedures from human judgment and decisionmaking

Two procedures for the evaluation of the performance of expert systems are illustrated: one procedure evaluates predictive accuracy; the other procedure is complementary in that it uncovers the factors that contribute to predictive accuracy. Using these procedures, it is argued that expert systems should be more accurate than human experts in two senses. One sense is that expert systems must be more accurate to be cost-effective. Previous research is reviewed and original results are presented which show that simple statistical models typically perform better than human experts for the task of combining evidence from a given set of information sources. The results also suggest the second sense in which expert systems should be more accurate than human experts. They reveal that expert systems should share factors that contribute to human accuracy, but not factors that detract from human accuracy. Thus the thesis is that one should both require and expect systems to be more accurate than humans.

Levi, Keith↗
NASA NTRS1991

Chimpanzee counting and rhesus monkey ordinality judgments

An investigation is conducted to address the questions of whether chimpanzees can count and whether rhesus monkeys can differentiate written numbers. One investigation demonstrates the capacity of a chimpanzee to produce a quantity of responses appropriate to a given Arabic numeral. Rhesus monkeys are shown to have the capability for making fine differentiations between quantities of pellets and Arabic numerals.

Rumbaugh, Duane M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Influence of animation on dynamical judgments

The motions of objects in the environment reflect underlying dynamical constraints and regularities. The conditions under which people are sensitive to natural dynamics are considered. In particular, the article considers what determines whether observers can distinguish canonical and anomalous dynamics when viewing ongoing events. The extent to which such perceptual appreciations are integrated with and influence common-sense reasoning about mechanical events is examined. It is concluded that animation evokes accurate dynamical intuitions when there is only 1 dimension of information that is of dynamical relevance. This advantage is lost when the observed motion reflects higher dimension dynamics or when the kinematic information is removed or degraded.

Kaiser, Mary K.↗
NASA NTRS1964

The Effect of Information Feedback Upon Psychophysical Judgments

An analysis was made of the role of presentation schedules and information feedback on performance in a forced-choice signal detection task. The experimental results indicate that information feedback facilitates performance, but only for certain presentation schedules. The present study was designed to assess performance in a signal detection task under two conditions of information feedback. In the I-condition, S was told on each trial whether his detection response was correct or incorrect; in the !-condition S was given no feedback regarding the correctness of his response. The task involved a 2-response, forced-choice auditory detection problem. On each trial 2 temporal intervals were defined and S was required to report which interval he believed contained the signal; i. e., in one interval a tone burst in a background of white noise was presented, while the other interval contained only white noise. A trial will be denoted as s1 or s2, depending on whether the signal was embedded in the 1st or 2nd interval; the S's response will be denoted A1 or A2 to indicate which interval he reported contained the signal. The probability of an s1 trial will be denoted as y. In this study two values of y were used (.50 and.75) and, as indicated above, two conditions of information feedback. Thus there were 4 experimental conditions (501, · 50I, 751, 75I); each S was run under all 4 conditions. Method Gaussian noise was presented binaurally in S's headphones throughout a test session and the signal was a 1000-cps sinusoid tone; the tone was presented for 100 msec. including equal fall and rise times of 20 msec. The ratio of signal energy to noise power in a unit bandwidth was 2.9, and was constant throughout the study. The. S was seated before a stimulus display board. On each trial a red warning light was flashed for 100 msec. Two amber lights then came on successively each for 1 sec.; these lights defined the 2 observation intervals. The onset of the signal occurred 500 msec. after the onset of one of the observation intervals. After the second amber light went off, S indicated his response by pressing 1 of 2 wand switches under cards reading "1st interval" and "2nd interval." For the !-condition a green light flashed on above the correct response key after S's response; the green light was omitted in the !-condition. Each trial lasted 6 sec. The S's were 12 male college students with normal hearing. They were run for two practice sessions followed by 20 test sessions. Test sessions were run on consecutive days, 350 trials/day. Each day S ran on 1 of the 4 experimental conditions; in successive 4-day blocks S ran one day on each of the 4 experimental conditions in a random order. Thus, over 20 days each of the experimental conditions was repeated 5 times.

Atkinson, Richard C.↗
NASA NTRS1962

Sequential Phenomena in Psychophysical Judgments: A Theoretical Analysis

This paper deals with an analysis of psychophysical detection experiments designed to assess the limit of a human observer's level of sensitivity. A mathematical theory or the detection process is introduced that, in contrast to previous theories, provides an analysis of the sequential effects observed in psychophysical data. Two variations of the detection task are considered: information feedback and no-information feedback. In the feedback situation the subject is given information concerning the correctness of his responses, whereas in the no-feedback situation he is not. Data from a visual detection experiment with no-information feedback, and from an auditory detection experiment with information feedback are analyzed in terms of the theory. Finally, some general results are derived concerning the relationship between performance in the feedback situation and the no-feedback situation.

Atkinson, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Quantification of human responses

Human perception is a complex phenomenon which is difficult to quantify with instruments. For this reason, large panels of people are often used to elicit and aggregate subjective judgments. Print quality, taste, smell, sound quality of a stereo system, softness, and grading Olympic divers and skaters are some examples of situations where subjective measurements or judgments are paramount. We usually express what is in our mind through language as a medium but languages are limited in available choices of vocabularies, and as a result, our verbalizations are only approximate expressions of what we really have in mind. For lack of better methods to quantify subjective judgments, it is customary to set up a numerical scale such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 1, 2, 3, ..., 9, 10 for characterizing human responses and subjective judgments with no valid justification except that these scales are easy to understand and convenient to use. But these numerical scales are arbitrary simplifications of the complex human mind; the human mind is not restricted to such simple numerical variations. In fact, human responses and subjective judgments are psychophysical phenomena that are fuzzy entities and therefore difficult to handle by conventional mathematics and probability theory. The fuzzy mathematical approach provides a more realistic insight into understanding and quantifying human responses. This paper presents a method for quantifying human responses and subjective judgments without assuming a pattern of linear or numerical variation for human responses. In particular, quantification and evaluation of linguistic judgments was investigated.

Steinlage, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Visual space perception on a computer graphics night visual attachment

A series of experiments was conducted to compare five psychophysical methods of measuring how people perceive visual space in simulators. Psychologists have used such methods traditionally to measure visual space perception in the real world. Of the five tasks - objective-size judgments, angular-size judgments, shape judgments, slant judgments, and distance judgments - only the angular-size judgment task proved to be of potential use as a measure of simulator realism. In this experiment pilots estimated the relative angular size of triangles placed at various distances along a simulated runway. Estimates made when the display was collimated were closer to real-world performance than estimates made with an uncollimated display.

Palmer, E.↗