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DOE OSTI2025

STREAM: A technology planning and capacity expansion model for the industrial sector

The Strategic Technology Roadmapping and Energy, Environmental, and Economic Analysis Model—STREAM—is an optimization-based modeling tool and analysis framework to assist with strategic planning and technology investments of the industrial sector. This open-source framework is written in Julia using the JuMP package, which enables users to model future “pathways” for incumbent and future production technologies, costs, fuels and energy carriers, and energy and non-energy environmental impacts from industries as they transform in pursuit of a robust and competitive manufacturing sector. The model starts with an initial stock of industrial production technologies and assets at a facility level and then determines pathways that minimize cost, subject to an array of possible constraints on demand, market shares, environmental flows, and other exogenously specified operational considerations such as capacity utilization rates or regional energy costs. Key features of the framework include flexibility to model a wide range of industries and industrial technologies/processes at varying levels of granularity, ability to perform parametric sensitivity analyses, and ability to visualize model results using visualization objects.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2022

MPC4CLR (Model-Predictive-Control-for-Critical-Load-Restoration-in-Power-Distribution-Systems) [SWR-22-24]

Model predictive control (MPC) is a system or process control technique for making decisions under uncertainty via rolling look-ahead optimizations at each control step where only the current step decisions are applied, and the rest are discarded. In this work, we developed an MPC for a critical load restoration (CLR) in power distribution systems to recover system service (electricity delivery) following an extreme event-triggered substation outage. The method considers the problem of controlling distributed energy resources (DERs) of the distribution system with the objective of achieving maximum load pick up while satisfying distribution network flow and voltage constraints. A linearized optimal power flow (OPF) model is employed to represent the physics of the network. The problem formulation is augmented with a ramping (up) reserve product for the DERs to ensure improved and upward monotonic load restoration as time evolves. Simulation analysis and performance tests are performed using a modified IEEE 13-bus test feeder integrated with wind, solar, microturbine, and energy storage battery. The software is developed using various software packages in Julia and Python. The MPC model is implemented using the JuMP optimization language in Julia while the data analytics including renewable generation and load demand forecasts, running the MPC simulation and visualizations is performed in Python.

Eseye, Abinet Tesfaye↗

DOE OSTI2025

Turbulent Processes that Influence Boundary-Layer Cloud Structure (Final Technical Report)

Many models of the atmosphere simulate vertical profiles of observable fields, such as temperature, moisture, and vertical velocity. To assess the realism of such model output, it is important to evaluate the modeled profiles against observations. However, many extant evaluations consist of comparing time averaged profiles from the model and the observations. Such time averages can smooth out unrealistic features that appear in instantaneous profiles. In this way, the time averages may obscure certain model errors from detection. For instance, many models misrepresent turbulent processes, leading to profiles that are too smoothed out or too noisy. E.g., if a model has coarse vertical resolution and overly strong diffusion, then the model may be unable to produce observed sharp peaks. On the other hand, a model may have artificial approximations that produce spurious jumps in the vertical. Much can be learned by browsing through instantaneous snapshots of model output. But the volume of output produced by a global model is far too great to rely purely on visual inspection. In addition, we need a way to statistically characterize the profiles, so that anomalies can be detected more conveniently.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic analysis of masked loads with aggregated photovoltaic production

In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the photovoltaic generation and a stochastic differential equation with jumps that represents the demand. Here, we employ this model to disaggregate the behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation using net load and irradiance measurements.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature Measurements in Hypersonic Wind Tunnels via Femtosecond Coherent Anti-Stokes Raman Scattering

A femtosecond coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (fs CARS) instrument is developed to perform gas-phase thermometry in cold-flow hypersonic wind tunnels. Measurements are reported for Mach 8 and 14 pure-nitrogen flows. The fs CARS instrument includes a 100 fs pump/Stokes pulse and a spectrally narrow probe pulse from a second harmonic bandwidth compressor. Important experimental considerations such as limits on the pump/Stokes pulse energy are discussed. The fs CARS focusing and collimating optics are mounted on a two-axis translation stage system to scan the measurement location during a 30 second wind tunnel run. Single-laser-shot rotational CARS spectra are recorded at the laser repetition rate of 1 kHz in the wind tunnel freestream and near simple cone models. Spectral fitting is used to determine quantitative gas temperatures. Freestream temperatures at Mach 8 and 14 spanned ranges of 40–75 and 35–50 K, respectively, depending on tunnel operating conditions. Temperature variations across the central 100 mm span of the wind tunnel were quantified. Measured temperature jumps across conical bow shocks from various models varied by less than 1% from predicted values. Hypersonic boundary layer measurements were demonstrated. In conclusion, these measurements illustrate the utility and robustness of this instrument for the study of complex fluid flow phenomena in challenging ground test facilities.

Aerodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Paschen Jump as a Diagnostic of the Diffuse Nebular Continuum Emission in Active Galactic Nuclei*

Photoionization modeling of active galactic nuclei (AGN) predicts that diffuse continuum (DC) emission from the broad-line region makes a substantial contribution to the total continuum emission from ultraviolet through near-infrared wavelengths. Evidence for this DC component is present in the strong Balmer jump feature in AGN spectra, and possibly from reverberation measurements that find longer lags than expected from disk emission alone. However, the Balmer jump region contains numerous blended emission features, making it difficult to isolate the DC emission strength. In contrast, the Paschen jump region near 8200 Å is relatively uncontaminated by other strong emission features. Here, we examine whether the Paschen jump can aid in constraining the DC contribution, using Hubble Space Telescope Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph spectra of six nearby Seyfert 1 nuclei. The spectra appear smooth across the Paschen edge, and we find no evidence of a Paschen spectral break or jump in total flux. We fit multicomponent spectral models over the range 6800–9700 Å and find that the spectra can still be compatible with a significant DC contribution if the DC Paschen jump is offset by an opposite spectral break resulting from blended high-order Paschen emission lines. The fits imply DC contributions ranging from ~10% to 50% at 8000 Å, but the fitting results are highly dependent on assumptions made about other model components. These degeneracies can potentially be alleviated by carrying out fits over a broader wavelength range, provided that models can accurately represent the disk continuum shape, Fe ii emission, high-order Balmer line emission, and other components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computation of Direct Sensitivities of Spatial Multibody Systems With Joint Friction

Abstract Friction exists in most mechanical systems and may have a major influence on the dynamic performance of the system. The incorporation of friction in dynamic systems has been a subject of active research for several years owing to its high nonlinearity and its dependence on several parameters. Consequently, optimization of dynamic systems with friction becomes a challenging task. Gradient-based optimization of dynamical systems is a prominent technique for optimal design and requires the computation of model sensitivities with respect to the design parameters. The novel contribution of this paper is the derivation of the analytical methodology for the computation of direct sensitivities for smooth multibody systems with joint friction using the Lagrangian index-1 formulation. System dynamics have been computed using two different friction models; the Brown and McPhee, and the Gonthier et al. model. The methodology proposed to obtain model sensitivities has also been validated using the complex finite difference method. A case study has been conducted on a spatial multibody system to observe the effect of friction on the dynamics and model sensitivities, compare sensitivities with respect to different parameters and demonstrate the numerical and validation aspects. Since design parameters can have very different magnitudes and units, the sensitivities have been scaled with the parameters for comparison. Finally, a discussion has been presented on the interpretation of the case study results. Due to the incorporation of joint friction, ‘jumps’ or discontinuities are observed in the model sensitivities akin to those observed for hybrid dynamical systems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hybrid Star Models in the Light of New Multimessenger Data

Abstract Recent astrophysical mass inferences of compact stars HESS J1731-347 and PSR J0952-0607, with extremely small and large masses respectively, as well as the measurement of the neutron skin of Ca in the CREX experiment challenge and constrain the models of dense matter. We examine the concept of hybrid stars—objects containing quark cores surrounded by nucleonic envelopes—as models that account for these new data along with other inferences. We employ a family of 81 nucleonic equations of state (EOSs) with variable skewness and slope of symmetry energy at saturation density and a constant speed-of-sound EOS for quark matter. For each nucleonic EOS, a family of hybrid EOSs is generated by varying the transition density, the energy jump, and the speed of sound. These models are tested against the data from GW170817 and J1731-347, which favor low-density soft EOS and J0592-0607 and J0740+6620, which require high-density stiff EOS. The addition of J0592-0607's mass measurement to the constraints has no significant impact on the parameter space of the admissible EOS, but allows us to explore the potential effect of pulsars more massive than J0740+6620, if such exists. We then examine the occurrence of twin configurations and quantify the ranges of masses and radii that they can possess. It is shown that including J1731-347 data favors EOSs that predict low-mass twins with M ≲ 1.3 M ⊙ that can be realized if the deconfinement transition density is low. If combined with large speed of sound in quark matter such models allow for maximum masses of hybrid stars in 2.0–2.6 M ⊙ .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Putting multipoint kinetics to the test: preliminary analysis of the MUSE-4 experiment with APOLLO3

Modeling neutron kinetics is a challenging task and over the years, several approaches have been developed offering different tradeoffs between precision and cost. Probably the most popular one is point kinetics (PK), which, despite being very cheap, provides good results for many applications. One of the limitations of PK is that it is not able to model effects that happen before the prompt jump time scale. In practice, applications, where those time scales are interesting, are rare and those for which experimental data are available are even rarer. One of those cases is the MUSE-4 experiment for which the focus is on the very fast behavior and where we have no thermal feedback. As we have shown in a recent paper, a simple extension of PK, known as multipoint kinetics (MPK), can overcome this limitation. In this paper, which is intended as a preliminary study, we show how a simple MPK model can qualitatively reproduce the fast behavior that we cannot model with PK. Moreover, we will show how to exploit its low cost and compact form to model also slow effects as the precursors built up, behaviours that are not affordable to model with more expensive techniques, such as kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. For the periodic pulse transients with no feedbacks we will also provide an analytical solution in closed form. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling of gap conductance for LWR fuel rods applied in the BISON code

A new gap conductance model is proposed in this study as a combination of Toptan’s model and the Ross-Stoute model. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed to understand how simulation results depend on all input parameters of the proposed model. Additionally, new modeling options (e.g. fill gas thermal conductivity, temperature jump distance, thermal accommodation coefficient, etc.) are added into the nuclear fuel performance code, BISON. The need for further investigation of the gap heat transfer between fuel and cladding in BISON motivated this study to evaluate its impact on the code’s predictions. New gap conductance modeling is proposed. A series of integral-effects validation tests is performed: (1) to demonstrate the impact of the proposed model on the code’s fuel temperature predictions at the beginning of life and through the reactor’s life; (2) to ensure that the proposed model is capable of accurately modeling gap heat transfer characteristics in real-world problems; and (3) to investigate the impact of the estimation of fission gas release on the fuel temperature predictions with the proposed model. Overall, the results indicate that the proposed gap conductance model improves BISON’s predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatio-temporal electric field distributions in an atmospheric plasma jet impinging on a microchannel array surface

The electric field distribution in the ionization waves (IWs) propagating over a microchannel array dielectric surface, with the channels either empty or filled with distilled water, is measured by ps electric field induced second harmonic generation. The surface IW is initiated by the atmospheric pressure N 2 –Ar plasma jet impinging on the surface vertically and powered by ns pulse discharge bursts. The results show that the electric field inside the microchannels, specifically its horizontal component, is enhanced by up to a factor of 2. The field enhancement region is localized within the channels. The vertical electric field inside the channels lags in time compared to the field measured at the ridges, indicating the transient reversal of the IW propagation direction across the channels (toward the jet). This is consistent with the phase-locked plasma emission images and confirmed by the kinetic modeling predictions, which show that the IW ‘jumps’ over the empty channels and propagates into the channels only after the jump between the adjacent ridges. When the channels are filled with water, the wave speed increases by up to 50%, due to the higher effective dielectric constant of the surface. No evidence of a significant electric field enhancement near the dielectric surface (ceramic or water) has been detected, within the spatial resolution of the present diagnostic, ~100 μ m.

plasmas and liquids↗

DOE OSTI2024

HybridSystemsSimulations.jl - Solving the Merchant Collocated Facilities with JuMP

The development of new clean-generation technologies also leads to new plant-level architectures that combine several generation and storage assets behind the point of connection. These co-located generation resources (Hybrid Systems) primarily operate as merchant assets that employ automated market bidding models and internal Energy Management Systems (EMS) to comply with the operator's signals. Formulating an optimal bidding model requires embedding the EMS control model into the bidding algorithm, resulting in a bi-level optimization problem. In this presentation, we first showcase using JuMP to formulate and solve this problem effectively for multiple merchant systems and the bidding outcomes considering different model formulations. Second, the bidding outcomes are later integrated into a PowerSimulations.jl (also built with JuMP) simulation to study the system-level effects of the various merchant bidding and the interactions between market-clearing models and the embedded EMS model. We will showcase simulations conducted in the RTS system considering different levels of merchant hybrid systems participation. The presentation provides the following specific insights on JuMP usage: 1) the Formulation of specialized bi-level problems with custom cuts to solve the merchant hybrid system bidding problem; 2) the integration of a modular model within a complex simulation workflow supported by JuMP in PowerSimulations.jl; 3) Accelerating the solution of power systems operations simulation that employ agent optimization problems using JuMP.

energy markets↗

DOE OSTI2020

Origin of gaplike behaviors in URu 2 Si 2 : Combined study via quasiparticle scattering spectroscopy and resistivity measurements

In this work, we address two long-standing questions regarding the hidden order in URu 2 Si 2 : Is it associated with the hybridization process, and what are the distinct roles played by the localized and itinerant electrons? Our quasiparticle scattering spectroscopy reveals a hybridization gap ubiquitous in the entire phase space spanned by P and Fe substitutions in URu 2 Si 2 , including the no-order and antiferromagnetic regions, with minimal change upon crossing the phase boundary. This indicates its opening is not associated with the ordering, and thus localized electrons must be the major player. Towards a consistent understanding of all the other gaplike behaviors observed only below transition temperatures, we analyze the electrical resistivity using a model in which gapped bosonic excitations are the dominant scattering source. With their stiffness set to follow an unusual temperature dependence (decreasing with decreasing temperature), this model fits all of our resistivity data well including the jump at the transition. Remarkably, the extracted gap increases slowly with increasing Fe content, similarly to the gap detected by inelastic neutron scattering at $Q_1$ = (1.4, 0, 0), suggesting a common origin. Such a model can also naturally explain the Hall effect temperature dependence without invoking Fermi surface gapping.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiquanta flux jumps in superconducting fractal

We study the magnetic field response of millimeter scale fractal Sierpinski gaskets (SG) assembled of superconducting equilateral triangular patches. Directly imaged quantitative induction maps reveal hierarchical periodic filling of enclosed void areas with multiquanta magnetic flux, which jumps inside the voids in repeating bundles of individual flux quanta Φ 0 . The number N s of entering flux quanta in different triangular voids of the SG is proportional to the linear size s of the void, while the field periodicity of flux jumps varies as 1/s. We explain this behavior by modeling the triangular voids in the SG with effective superconducting rings and by calculating their response following the London analysis of persistent currents, J s , induced by the applied field H a and by the entering flux. With changing H a , J s reaches a critical value in the vertex joints that connect the triangular superconducting patches and allows the giant flux jumps into the SG voids through phase slips or multiple Abrikosov vortex transfer across the vertices. The unique flux behavior in superconducting SG patterns, may be used to design tunable low-loss resonators with multi-line high-frequency spectrum for microwave technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiclass Classification Using Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines

We present a new Bayesian model for the problem of multiclass classification. In this model, the probabilities of class membership of a given observation are determined by the mean of a latent Gaussian distribution. The mean functions of this latent distribution consist of combinations of highly flexible basis functions of the inputs: multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), first developed for multiple regression. We use reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to make inference on the classification model, including the number of basis functions. We compare the probabilistic classification performance of our proposed approach to existing methods on simulated and benchmark data, and compare uncertainty estimates on simulated data. Our proposed method compares favorably with existing Bayesian and frequentist multiclass classification methods in out-of-sample probabilistic classification, and uncertainty estimation of these probabilistic classifications. We examine the fit of the proposed method to a data set of hurricane storm surge levels near Delaware Bay, US, and conclude that sea level rise is a key contributor to damage delivered by storm surge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs): An Efficient Physics-Informed Neural Networks Framework for Interface Problems

Here, we present an efficient physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) framework, termed Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs), to improve the modeling of interface problems with discontinuous coefficients and/or interfacial jumps. This framework is an enhanced version of its predecessor, Interface PINNs or I-PINNs (Sarma et al.; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cma.2024.117135), which involves domain decomposition and assignment of different predefined activation functions to the neural networks in each subdomain across a sharp interface, while keeping all other parameters of the neural networks identical. In AdaI-PINNs, the activation functions vary solely in their slopes, which are trained along with the other parameters of the neural networks. This makes the AdaI-PINNs framework fully automated without requiring preset activation functions. Comparative studies on one-dimensional, two-dimensional, and three-dimensional benchmark elliptic interface problems reveal that AdaI-PINNs outperform I-PINNs, reducing computational costs by 2-6 times while producing similar or better accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Summary of GFL Inverter Capability and Performance: Malawi [Slides]

This presentation provides a comprehensive comparison of inverter-based resource (IBR) technical requirements across multiple international grid codes - including IEEE 2800, ESO, EirGrid, and Malawi's evolving regulatory framework - to support capacity building for electricity-sector institutions in Malawi. It highlights key performance expectations for grid-following (GFL) inverters across critical domains such as primary and fast frequency response, ramping behavior, frequency and voltage ride-through capabilities, reactive power and voltage control, ROCOF withstand, phase jump tolerance, system strength considerations, protection schemes, and dynamic modeling requirements. Emphasizing a "Do no harm, do something, do more" philosophy, the document synthesizes best practices and operational benchmarks to guide the integration and stability of inverter-based resources within Malawi's power system. The presentation forms part of the SABESS Center of Excellence initiative supported by the Global Energy Alliance for People and the Planet.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

CIEL ∗ Ch color map for visualization and analysis of sea ice motion

The International Commission on Illumination (CIE) designed its color space to be perceptually uniform so that a given numerical change in the color code corresponds to perceived change in color. This color encoding is demon- strated to be advantageous in scientific visualization and analysis of vector fields. The specific application is analysis of ice motion in the Arctic where patterns in smooth monthly-averaged ice motion are seen. Furthermore, fractures occurring in the ice cover result in discontinuities in the ice motion. This vector jump in displacement can also be visualized. We then analyze modeled and observed fractures through the use of a metric on the color space, and image amplitude and phase metrics. Amplitude and phase met- rics arise from image registration that is accomplished by sampling images using space filling curves, thus reducing the image registration problem to the more reliable functional alignment problem. We demonstrate this through an exploration of the metrics to compare model runs to an observed ice crack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗