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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Influence Diagram Use With Respect to Technology Planning and Investment

Influence diagrams are relatively simple, but powerful, tools for assessing the impact of choices or resource allocations on goals or requirements. They are very general and can be used on a wide range of problems. They can be used for any problem that has defined goals, a set of factors that influence the goals or the other factors, and a set of inputs. Influence diagrams show the relationship among a set of results and the attributes that influence them and the inputs that influence the attributes. If the results are goals or requirements of a program, then the influence diagram can be used to examine how the requirements are affected by changes to technology investment. This paper uses an example to show how to construct and interpret influence diagrams, how to assign weights to the inputs and attributes, how to assign weights to the transfer functions (influences), and how to calculate the resulting influences of the inputs on the results. A study is also presented as an example of how using influence diagrams can help in technology planning and investment. The Space Propulsion Synergy Team (SPST) used this technique to examine the impact of R&D spending on the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of a space transportation system. The question addressed was the effect on the recurring and the non-recurring portions of LCC of the proportion of R&D resources spent to impact technology objectives versus the proportion spent to impact operational dependability objectives. The goals, attributes, and the inputs were established. All of the linkages (influences) were determined. The weighting of each of the attributes and each of the linkages was determined. Finally the inputs were varied and the impacts on the LCC determined and are presented. The paper discusses how each of these was accomplished both for credibility and as an example for future studies using influence diagrams for technology planning and investment planning.

Levack, Daniel J. H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

decision support↗
NASA NTRS2021

Regional Air Mobility: Leveraging Our National Investments to Energize the American Travel Experience

America is home to over 5,000 airports available for public use, yet only 30 of these airports serve over 70% of all travelers.01 Despite this vast network of airports, the majority are underutilized due to air transportation services that have trended towards consolidation by putting more people into fewer, larger aircraft on well-traveled routes. Also, these bigger jet-propelled aircraft can only take off from and land on longer airstrips. Regional Air Mobility (RAM) will fundamentally change how we travel by bringing the convenience, speed, and safety of air travel to all Americans, regardless of their proximity to a travel hub or urban center. We advocate RAM technology investment as complementary to and an accelerator for Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) and other initiatives that aspire to transform the airspace. Through targeted advanced technology investments, such as aircraft automation, enhanced operational models, more efficient aircraft and propulsion systems, and expanded airport renewable energy generation, many of which are already underway, RAM will increase the safety, accessibility, and affordability of regional travel while building on the extensive and underutilized federal, state, and local investment in our nation’s local airports.

Regional Air Mobility↗
NASA NTRS1992

A strategy for investment in space resource utilization

Considerations governing a strategy for investment in the utilization of space resources are discussed. It is suggested on the basis of an examination of current trends in terms of historical processes which operate on new frontiers that the limited markets and unfamiliar technologies associated with space commercialization today may change dramatically in 20 years when lunar resources are accessible. It is argued that the uncertainty of such projections discourages investment at a useful scale unless a strategy for technology development can be implemented which provides tangible and marketable benefits in the intermediate term. At present, technologies can be identified which will be required (and therefore valuable) at the time of lunar settlement, and whose development can be planned to yield marketable intermediate products on earth. It is concluded that the formation of precompetitive collaborative research consortia in the industrial sector could reduce technical and economic risk in the early stages and could promote a favorable political environment for the future growth of space activities.

Mendell, Wendell W.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Combination Of Investment And Centrifugal Casting

Modifications, including incorporation of centrifugal casting, made in investment-casting process reducing scrap rate. Used to make first- and second-stage high-pressure-fuel-turbopump nozzles, containing vanes with thin trailing edges and other thin sections. Investment mold spun for short time while being filled, and stopped before solidification occurs. Centrifugal force drives molten metal into thin trailing edges, ensuring they are filled. With improved filling, preheat and pour temperatures reduced and solidification hastened so less hot tearing.

Creeger, Gordon A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Nonaqueous slip casting of high temperature ceramic superconductors using an investment casting technique

A process for slip casting ceramic articles that does not employ parting agents and affords the casting of complete, detailed, precision articles that do not possess parting lines is presented. This process is especially useful for high temperature superconductors and water-sensitive ceramics. A wax pattern for a shell mold is provided, and an aqueous mixture of a calcium sulfate-bonded investment material is applied as a coating to the wax pattern. The coated wax pattern is then dried, followed by curing to vaporize the wax pattern and leave a shell mold of the calcium sulfate-bonded investment material. The shell mold is cooled to room temperature, and a ceramic slip, created by dispersing a ceramic powder in an organic liquid, is poured therein. After a ceramic shell of desired thickness or a solid article has set up in the shell mold, excess ceramic slip is poured out. The shell mold is misted with water and peeled away from the ceramic article, after which the ceramic is fired to provide a complete, detailed, precision, high temperature superconductive ceramic article without parting lines. The casting technique may take place in the presence of a magnetic field to orient the ceramic powders during the casting process.

Hooker, Matthew W.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optimal technology investment strategies for a reusable launch vehicle

Within the present budgetary environment, developing the technology that leads to an operationally efficient space transportation system with the required performance is a challenge. The present research focuses on a methodology to determine high payoff technology investment strategies. Research has been conducted at Langley Research Center in which design codes for the conceptual analysis of space transportation systems have been integrated in a multidisciplinary design optimization approach. The current study integrates trajectory, propulsion, weights and sizing, and cost disciplines where the effect of technology maturation on the development cost of a single stage to orbit reusable launch vehicle is examined. Results show that the technology investment prior to full-scale development has a significant economic payoff. The design optimization process is used to determine strategic allocations of limited technology funding to maximize the economic payoff.

Moore, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Third Generation)

To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based model with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models flat are envisioned for ASAC.

Wingrove, Earl R., III↗
NASA NTRS1999

Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Investment Model-Cargo

The purpose of the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Air Cargo Investment Model-Cargo (ACIMC), is to examine the economic effects of technology investment on the air cargo market, particularly the market for new cargo aircraft. To do so, we have built an econometrically based model designed to operate like the ACIM. Two main drivers account for virtually all of the demand: the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the fare yield (which is a proxy of the price charged or fare). These differences arise from a combination of the nature of air cargo demand and the peculiarities of the air cargo market. The net effect of these two factors are that sales of new cargo aircraft are much less sensitive to either increases in GDP or changes in the costs of labor, capital, fuel, materials, and energy associated with the production of new cargo aircraft than the sales of new passenger aircraft. This in conjunction with the relatively small size of the cargo aircraft market means technology improvements to the cargo aircraft will do relatively very little to spur increased sales of new cargo aircraft.

Johnson, Jesse↗
NASA NTRS2002

Revolutionary Aerospace Systems Concepts - Planning for the Future of Technology Investments

In January, 2000, the NASA Administrator gave the following directions to Langley: "We will create a new role for Langley as a leader for the assessment of revolutionary aerospace system concepts and architectures, and provide resources needed to assure technology breakthroughs will be there to support these advanced concepts. This is critical in determining how NASA can best invest its resources to enable future missions." The key objective of the RASC team is to look beyond current research and technology (R&T) programs and missions and evolutionary technology development approaches with a "top-down" perspective to explore possible new mission capabilities. The accomplishment of this objective will allow NASA to provide the ability to go anywhere, anytime - safely, and affordably- to meet its strategic goals for exploration, science, and commercialization. The RASC Team will seek to maximize the cross-Enterprise benefits of these revolutionary capabilities as it defines the revolutionary enabling technology areas and performance levels needed. The product of the RASC Team studies will be revolutionary systems concepts along with enabling technologies and payoffs in new mission capabilities, which these concepts can provide. These results will be delivered to the NASA Enterprises and the NASA Chief Technologist for use in planning revolutionary future NASA R&T program investments.

Ferebee, Melvin J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Cryogenic Fracture Toughness Evaluation of an Investment Cast Al-Be Alloy for Structural Applications

Aluminum-Beryllium metal matrix composite materials are useful due to their desirable performance characteristics for aerospace applications. Desirable characteristics of this material includes light-weight, dimensional stability, stiffness, good vibration damping characteristics, low coefficient of thermal expansion, and workability, This material is 3.5 times stiffer and 22% lighter than conventional aluminum alloys. electro-optical systems, advanced sensor and guidance components for flight and satellite systems, components for light-weight high-performance aircraft engines, and structural components for helicopters. Aluminum-beryllium materials are now available in the form of near net shape investment castings. In this materials properties characterization study, the cryogenic tensile and fracture properties of an investment casting alloy, Beralcast 363, were determined. Tensile testing was performed at 21 C (70 F), -73.3 C (-100 F), -195.5 C (-320 F) and -252.8 C (-423 F), and fracture (K(sub lc) and da/dN) testing was performed at -73.3 C (-100 F), -195.5 C (-320 F) and -252.8 C (-423 F). Their use is attractive for weight critical structural applications such as advanced

Gamwell, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA Propulsion Investments for Exploration and Science

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) invests in chemical and electric propulsion systems to achieve future mission objectives for both human exploration and robotic science. Propulsion system requirements for human missions are derived from the exploration architecture being implemented in the Constellation Program. The Constellation Program first develops a system consisting of the Ares I launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft to access the Space Station, then builds on this initial system with the heavy-lift Ares V launch vehicle, Earth departure stage, and lunar module to enable missions to the lunar surface. A variety of chemical engines for all mission phases including primary propulsion, reaction control, abort, lunar ascent, and lunar descent are under development or are in early risk reduction to meet the specific requirements of the Ares I and V launch vehicles, Orion crew and service modules, and Altair lunar module. Exploration propulsion systems draw from Apollo, space shuttle, and commercial heritage and are applied across the Constellation architecture vehicles. Selection of these launch systems and engines is driven by numerous factors including development cost, existing infrastructure, operations cost, and reliability. Incorporation of green systems for sustained operations and extensibility into future systems is an additional consideration for system design. Science missions will directly benefit from the development of Constellation launch systems, and are making advancements in electric and chemical propulsion systems for challenging deep space, rendezvous, and sample return missions. Both Hall effect and ion electric propulsion systems are in development or qualification to address the range of NASA s Heliophysics, Planetary Science, and Astrophysics mission requirements. These address the spectrum of potential requirements from cost-capped missions to enabling challenging high delta-v, long-life missions. Additionally, a high specific impulse chemical engine is in development that will add additional capability to performance-demanding space science missions. In summary, the paper provides a survey of current NASA development and risk reduction propulsion investments for exploration and science.

Smith, Bryan K.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Computational Support for Technology- Investment Decisions

Strategic Assessment of Risk and Technology (START) is a user-friendly computer program that assists human managers in making decisions regarding research-and-development investment portfolios in the presence of uncertainties and of non-technological constraints that include budgetary and time limits, restrictions related to infrastructure, and programmatic and institutional priorities. START facilitates quantitative analysis of technologies, capabilities, missions, scenarios and programs, and thereby enables the selection and scheduling of value-optimal development efforts. START incorporates features that, variously, perform or support a unique combination of functions, most of which are not systematically performed or supported by prior decision- support software. These functions include the following: Optimal portfolio selection using an expected-utility-based assessment of capabilities and technologies; Temporal investment recommendations; Distinctions between enhancing and enabling capabilities; Analysis of partial funding for enhancing capabilities; and Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. START can run on almost any computing hardware, within Linux and related operating systems that include Mac OS X versions 10.3 and later, and can run in Windows under the Cygwin environment. START can be distributed in binary code form. START calls, as external libraries, several open-source software packages. Output is in Excel (.xls) file format.

Adumitroaie, Virgil↗
NASA NTRS2014

Marshall Space Flight Center Technology Investments Overview

NASA is moving forward with prioritized technology investments that will support NASA's exploration and science missions, while benefiting other Government agencies and the U.S. aerospace enterprise. center dotThe plan provides the guidance for NASA's space technology investments during the next four years, within the context of a 20-year horizon center dotThis plan will help ensure that NASA develops technologies that enable its 4 goals to: 1.Sustain and extend human activities in space, 2.Explore the structure, origin, and evolution of the solar system, and search for life past and present, 3.Expand our understanding of the Earth and the universe and have a direct and measurable impact on how we work and live, and 4.Energize domestic space enterprise and extend benefits of space for the Nation.

Tinker, Mike↗
NASA NTRS2012

Technology Investment Agendas to Expand Human Space Futures

The paper develops four alternative core-technology advancement specifications, one for each of the four strategic goal options for government investment in human space flight. Already discussed in the literature, these are: Explore Mars; Settle the Moon; accelerate commercial development of Space Passenger Travel; and enable industrial scale-up of Space Solar Power for Earth. In the case of the Explore Mars goal, the paper starts with the contemporary NASA accounting of ?55 Mars-enabling technologies. The analysis decomposes that technology agenda into technologies applicable only to the Explore Mars goal, versus those applicable more broadly to the other three options. Salient technology needs of all four options are then elaborated to a comparable level of detail. The comparison differentiates how technologies or major developments that may seem the same at the level of budget lines or headlines (e.g., heavy-lift Earth launch) would in fact diverge widely if developed in the service of one or another of the HSF goals. The paper concludes that the explicit choice of human space flight goal matters greatly; an expensive portfolio of challenging technologies would not only enable a particular option, it would foreclose the others. Technologies essential to enable human exploration of Mars cannot prepare interchangeably for alternative futures; they would not allow us to choose later to Settle the Moon, unleash robust growth of Space Passenger Travel industries, or help the transition to a post-petroleum future with Space Solar Power for Earth. The paper concludes that a decades-long decision in the U.S.--whether made consciously or by default--to focus technology investment toward achieving human exploration of Mars someday would effectively preclude the alternative goals in our lifetime.

human space flight↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Investments by NASA's National Force Measurement Technology Capability

The National Force Measurement Technology Capability (NFMTC) is a nationwide partnership established in 2008 and sponsored by NASA's Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project to maintain and further develop force measurement capabilities. The NFMTC focuses on force measurement in wind tunnels and provides operational support in addition to conducting balance research. Based on force measurement capability challenges, strategic investments into research tasks are designed to meet the experimental requirements of current and future aerospace research programs and projects. This paper highlights recent and force measurement investments into several areas including recapitalizing the strain-gage balance inventory, developing balance best practices, improving calibration and facility capabilities, and researching potential technologies to advance balance capabilities.

Commo, Sean A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy: 2016 Decadal Update

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) recently updated its investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as it pertains to NASAs Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade. The last ESTO lidar strategy was documented in 2006. The current (2016) report assesses the state-of-the-art in lidar technologies a decade later. Lidar technology maturation in the past decade has been evaluated, and the ESTO investment strategy is updated and laid out in this report according to current NASA Earth science measurement needs and new emerging technologies.

Valinia, Azita↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA ESTO Lidar Technologies Investment Strategy: 2016 Decadal Update

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) recently updated its investment strategy in the area of lidar technologies as it pertains to NASA's Earth Science measurement goals in the next decade. The last ESTO lidar strategy was documented in 2006. The current (2016) report assesses the state-of-the-art in lidar technologies a decade later. Lidar technology maturation in the past decade has been evaluated, and the ESTO investment strategy is updated and laid out in this report according to current NASA Earth science measurement needs and new emerging technologies.

Valinia, Azita↗