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NASA NTRS2011

Bridging the Gap between NASA Hydrological Data and the Geospatial Community

There is a vast and ever increasing amount of data on the Earth interconnected energy and hydrological systems, available from NASA remote sensing and modeling systems, and yet, one challenge persists: increasing the usefulness of these data for, and thus their use by, the geospatial communities. The Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), part of the Goddard Earth Sciences DISC, has continually worked to better understand the hydrological data needs of the geospatial end users, to thus better able to bridge the gap between NASA data and the geospatial communities. This paper will cover some of the hydrological data sets available from HDISC, and the various tools and services developed for data searching, data subletting ; format conversion. online visualization and analysis; interoperable access; etc.; to facilitate the integration of NASA hydrological data by end users. The NASA Goddard data analysis and visualization system, Giovanni, is described. Two case examples of user-customized data services are given, involving the EPA BASINS (Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources) project and the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System, with the common requirement of on-the-fly retrieval of long duration time series for a geographical point

Rui, Hualan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissemination of Global Flood Severity and Surface Water Mapping using Remote Sensing Data to Global Stakeholders

Flooding is a natural event that occurs frequently with high severity worldwide, responsible for significant societal and economic impacts. Disaster managers face significant challenges managing essential information for preparedness, response, and recovery efforts. The development of an open access, global flood alerting system for effective identification of flood impacted areas, classification of potential impacts, and the formulation of effective emergency response measures requires the incorporation of a wide variety of flood models and remote sensing data sources from multiple platforms. NASA is currently funding projects focused on flood forecasting, post-event flood mapping, flood depth estimation and pre-event flood severity estimation using Earth observation (EO) datasets and derived flood products. A new initiative in the Disasters Program is underway to disseminate flood products from different hydrologic models and sensors to global stakeholders via Pacific Disaster Center’s DisasterAWARE®, NASA’s Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. This initiative focuses on improving response capacity and use of EO products in near real-time by a broader community for resource planning in case of extreme events. As part of this initiative, we have deployed Model of Models (MoM) – an open-source ensemble approach, that integrates outputs from hydrologic models and EO data from optical imagery to assess flood severity daily at sub-watershed level globally. The MoM output is integrated with the incident event system of DisasterAWARE to generate flood severity risk and flood impact boundaries, which are disseminated via the DisasterAWARE platform to different stakeholders globally for decision-making and response efforts. The next step will focus on using MoM outputs to estimate flood depth and extent mapping using high-resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery, impact assessment using optical imagery and population datasets, and damage estimation using critical infrastructure datasets, which would be disseminated via DisasterAWARE to decision-makers, emergency managers and first responders around the world.

flood↗
NASA NTRS2010

Investigation of the 2006 Drought and 2007 Flood Extremes at the Southern Great Plains Through an Integrative Analysis of Observations

Hydrological years 2006 (HY06, 10/2005-09/2006) and 2007 (HY07, 10/2006-09/2007) provide a unique opportunity to examine hydrological extremes in the central US because there are no other examples of two such highly contrasting precipitation extremes occurring in consecutive years at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in recorded history. The HY06 annual precipitation in the state of Oklahoma, as observed by the Oklahoma Mesonet, is around 61% of the normal (92.84 cm, based on the 1921-2008 climatology), which results in HY06 the second-driest year in the record. In particular, the total precipitation during the winter of 2005-06 is only 27% of the normal, and this winter ranks as the driest season. On the other hand, the HY07 annual precipitation amount is 121% of the normal and HY07 ranks as the seventh-wettest year for the entire state and the wettest year for the central region of the state. Summer 2007 is the second-wettest season for the state. Large-scale dynamics play a key role in these extreme events. During the extreme dry period (10/2005-02/2006), a dipole pattern in the 500-hPa GH anomaly existed where an anomalous high was over the southwestern U.S. region and an anomalous low was over the Great Lakes. This pattern is associated with inhibited moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and strong sinking motion over the SGP, both contributing to the extreme dryness. The precipitation deficit over the SGP during the extreme dry period is clearly linked to significantly suppressed cyclonic activity over the southwestern U.S., which shows robust relationship with the Western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern. The precipitation events during the extreme wet period (May-July 2007) were initially generated by active synoptic weather patterns, linked with moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico by the northward low level jet, and enhanced by the mesoscale convective systems. Although the drought and pluvial conditions are dominated by large-scale dynamic patterns, we have demonstrated that the two positive feedback processes during the extreme dry and wet periods found in this study play a key role to maintain and reinforce the length and severity of existing drought and flood events. For example, during the extreme dry period, with less clouds, LWP, PWV, precipitation, and thinner Cu cloud thickness, more net radiation was absorbed and used to evaporate water from the ground. The evaporated moisture, however, was removed by low-level divergence. Thus, with less precipitation and removed atmospheric moisture, more absorbed incoming solar radiation was used to increase surface temperature and to make the ground drier.

Dong, Xiquan↗
NASA NTRS2014

Technology Development for 3-D Wide Swath Imaging Supporting ACE

The National Academy of Sciences Decadal Survey (DS) Aerosol-Cloud-Ecosystems Mission (ACE) aims to advance our ability to observe and predict changes to the Earth's hydrological cycle and energy balance in response to climate forcing, especially those changes associated with the effects of aerosol on clouds and precipitation. ACE is focused on obtaining measurements to reduce the uncertainties in current climate models arising from the lack in understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions. As part of the mission instrument suite, a dual-frequency radar comprised of a fixed-beam 94 gigahertz (W-band) radar and a wide-swath 35 gigahertz (Ka-band) imaging radar has been recommended by the ACE Science Working Group.In our 2010 Instrument Incubator Program project, we've developed a radar architecture that addresses the challenge associated with achieving the measurement objectives through an innovative, shared aperture antenna that allows dual-frequency radar operation while achieving wide-swath (100 kilometers) imaging at Ka-band. The antenna system incorporates 2 key technologies; a) a novel dual-band reflectorreflectarray and b) a Ka-band Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) feed module. The dual-band antenna is comprised of a primary cylindrical reflectorreflectarray surface illuminated by a point-focus W-band feed (compatible with a quasi-optical beam waveguide feed, such as that employed on CloudSat); the Ka-band AESA line feed provides wide-swath across-track scanning. The benefits of this shared-aperture approach include significant reductions in ACE satellite payload size, weight, and cost, as compared to a two aperture approach. Four objectives were addressed in our project. The first entailed developing the tools for the analysis and design of reflectarray antennas, assessment of candidate reflectarray elements, and validation using test coupons. The second objective was to develop a full-scale aperture design utilizing the reflectarray surface and to detail specific requirements and trades for the Ka-band AESA line feed. As part of the third objective a subscale antenna, similar to the full-scale aperture design, was developed, integrated, and flown with the Cloud Radar System during the 2014 Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment. The fourth and ongoing objective entails developing a GaN MMIC (Gallium Nitride Monolithic Microwave Integrated Circuits) power amplifier for use in the Ka-band AESA. An overview of the progress made on this project and a look ahead at the 2013 IIP (Instrument Incubator Program) award selection will be presented.

Antenna↗
NASA NTRS2011

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Llovel, W.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Python-Based Scientific Analysis and Visualization of Precipitation Systems at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

At NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Python is used several different ways to analyze and visualize precipitating weather systems. A number of different Python‐based software packages have been developed, which are available to the larger scientific community. The approach in all these packages is to utilize pre‐existing Python modules as well as to be object‐oriented and scalable. The first package that will be described and demonstrated is the Python Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) Data Toolkit, or PyAMPR for short. PyAMPR reads geolocated brightness temperature data from any flight of the AMPR airborne instrument over its 25‐year history into a common data structure suitable for user‐defined analyses. It features rapid, simplified (i.e., one line of code) production of quick‐look imagery, including Google Earth overlays, swath plots of individual channels, and strip charts showing multiple channels at once. These plotting routines are also capable of significant customization for detailed, publication‐ready figures. Deconvolution of the polarization‐varying channels to static horizontally and vertically polarized scenes is also available. Examples will be given of PyAMPR's contribution toward real‐time AMPR data display during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), which took place in the Carolinas during May‐June 2014. The second software package is the Marshall Multi‐Radar/Multi‐Sensor (MRMS) Mosaic Python Toolkit, or MMM‐Py for short. MMM‐Py was designed to read, analyze, and display three‐dimensional national mosaicked reflectivity data produced by the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). MMM‐Py can read MRMS mosaics from either their unique binary format or their converted NetCDF format. It can also read and properly interpret the current mosaic design (4 regional tiles) as well as mosaics produced prior to late July 2013 (8 tiles). MMM‐Py can easily stitch multiple tiles together to provide a larger regional or national picture of precipitating weather systems. Composites, horizontal and vertical crosssections, and combinations thereof are easily displayed using as little as one line of code. MMM‐Py can also write to the native MRMS binary format, and sub‐sectioning of tiles (or multiple stitched tiles) is anticipated to be in place by the time of this meeting. Thus, MMM‐Py also can be used to power the creation of custom mosaics for targeted regional studies. Overlays of other data (e.g., lightning observations) are easily accomplished. Demonstrations of MMM‐Py, including the creation of animations, will be shown. Finally, Marshall has done significant work to interface Python‐based analysis routines with the U.S. Department of Energy's Py‐ART software package for radar data ingest, processing, and analysis. One example of this is the Python Turbulence Detection Algorithm (PyTDA), an MSFC‐based implementation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) for the purposes of convective‐scale analysis, situational awareness, and forensic meteorology. PyTDA exploits Py‐ART's radar data ingest routines and data model to rapidly produce aviation‐relevant turbulence estimates from Doppler radar data. Work toward processing speed optimization and better integration within the Py‐ART framework will be highlighted. Python‐based analysis within the Py‐ART framework is also being done for new research related to intercomparison of ground‐based radar data with satellite estimates of ocean winds, as well as research on the electrification of pyrocumulus clouds.

Lang, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗
NASA NTRS2002

Fluvial Degradation of the Highlands: The Terra Tyrrhena Region of Mars

Geologic and geomorphic analyses of highland terrains reveal the effects of fluvial erosion by well-integrated valley networks. Hydrologic modeling using 128 pix/deg Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA) gridded topography is being done to quantitatively characterize these systems. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Mest, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solid-State Cloud Radar System (CRS) Upgrade and Deployment

The recent decade has brought rapid development in solid-state power amplifier (SSPA) technology. This has enabled the use of solid-state precipitation radar in place of high-power and high-voltage systems such as those that use Klystron or Magnetron transmitters. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has recently completed a comprehensive redesign of the 94 gigahertz Cloud Radar System (CRS) to incorporate a solid-state transmitter. It is the first cloud radar to achieve sensitivity comparable to that of a high-voltage transmitter using solid-state. The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Cloud Radar System (CRS) is a 94 gigahertz Doppler radar that flies on the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. The upgraded CRS system utilizes a state-of-the-art solid-state 94 gigahertz power amplifier with a peak transmit power of 30 watts. The modernized CRS system is detailed here with data results from its deployment during the 2014 Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEX).

Radar Radiometer Sampling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cloud and Precipitation Analyses using Merged Datasets from Two Airborne Microwave Radiometers Covering 10–183 GHz

Microwave radiometers provide valuable insight into the structure and characteristics of clouds and precipitation. In NASA’s airborne remote-sensing arsenal, the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) and the Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) have been used extensively in field campaigns throughout the world. AMPR operates with four channels between 10.7 and 85.5 GHz, while CoSMIR operates with nine channels ranging from 50.3 to 183.31 GHz. Although these datasets provide key information when used separately, the combination of these radiometers covers virtually the full range of frequencies used by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI), enabling suborbital observations to compare with GPM spaceborne measurements. This presentation will detail the merger of AMPR and CoSMIR data during two NASA airborne field campaigns: the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) and the Olympic Mountains Experiment / Radar Definition Experiment (OLYMPEX/RADEX). Other field campaigns, such as the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS), may be included as well. Using the merged brightness temperature dataset, features of precipitating and non-precipitating clouds containing liquid and/or ice hydrometeors will be discussed from selected flight segments. Geophysical retrievals derived from these brightness temperatures using a one-dimensional variational (1DVAR) technique and/or multi-linear regression equations will also be employed in these analyses. Observed transitions between precipitating and non-precipitating systems will be explored in greater detail. Dropsonde data will be used to provide environmental contexts throughout each flight, and additional observations (e.g., from airborne and/or land-based radar) will be incorporated to supplement the radiometer-based results. The broader implications of these results and pathways for future work will also be discussed.

Corey G. Amiot↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Geophysical Retrievals and Cloud Analyses from Merged Airborne Radiometer Datasets Covering 10–684 GHz

Airborne microwave radiometers provide insight about numerous aspects of Earth’s atmosphere and yield critical validation datasets for spaceborne radiometers. Three radiometers that are important to NASA’s airborne remote-sensing arsenal include: the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), covering 10–85 GHz; the Conical Scanning Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR), covering 50–183 GHz; and the Compact Scanning Submillimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (CoSSIR), covering 170–684 GHz. The NASA field campaigns of interest to this study include: the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx) in 2014, the Olympic Mountains Experiment and Radar Definition Experiment (OLYMPEX/RADEX) in 2015–2016, the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) in 2020–2023, and the Airborne Lightning Observatory for FEGS and TGFs (ALOFT) in 2023. To provide a more comprehensive perspective on clouds and precipitation observed during these airborne field campaigns, AMPR data were merged spatiotemporally with CoSMIR data for IPHEx, OLYMPEX/RADEX, and IMPACTS (2020 and 2022), while considering differences in instrument characteristics and operations, providing brightness temperature (Tb) values from 10–183 GHz in a common background grid throughout each flight. AMPR and CoSSIR data were similarly merged for IMPACTS (2023) and ALOFT, providing a common background grid with Tb values covering 10–684 GHz throughout each flight. These merged Tb data were employed in geophysical retrievals using the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), an Eddington radiative transfer model, and a one-dimensional variational (1DVAR) inversion method. Retrievals of cloud liquid water path were of primary interest. This presentation will include an overview of the methods for the radiometer data mergers, the radiative transfer methods, the geophysical retrievals, and detailed results from examining trends in Tb and cloud liquid water path in clouds, precipitation, and cloud-to-precipitation transition zones.

Corey G Amiot↗
NASA NTRS1971

Definition of the Informational Requirements of Hydrologic Resource Managers

The objectives of the integrated study are; (1) to delinate the parameters involved in hydrologic systems; (2) to outline the conventional means used in acquiring information relative to those parameters; and (3) to consider the potential usefulness of modern remote sensing techniques for acquiring certain parts of this information.

Burgy, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Central Asia Hydrologic Monitoring Dataset for Food and Water Security Applications in Afghanistan

From the Hindu Kush mountains to the Registan Desert, Afghanistan is a diverse landscape where droughts, floods, conflict, and economic market accessibility pose challenges for agricultural livelihoods and food security. The ability to remotely monitor environmental conditions is critical to support decision making for humanitarian assistance. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) global and Central Asia data streams provide information on hydrologic states for routine integrated food security analysis. While developed for a specific project, these data are publicly available and useful for other applications that require hydrologic estimates of the water and energy balance. These two data streams are unique because of their suitability for routine monitoring, as well as for being a historical record for computing relative indicators of water availability. The global stream is available at ∼ 1-month latency, and monthly average outputs are on a 10 km grid from 1982–present. The second data stream, Central Asia (21–56°N, 30–100°E), at ∼ 1 d latency, provides daily average outputs on a 1 km grid from 2000–present. This paper describes the configuration of the two FLDAS data streams, background on the software modeling framework, selected meteorological inputs and parameters, and results from previous evaluation studies. We also provide additional analysis of precipitation and snow cover over Afghanistan. We conclude with an example of how these data are used in integrated food security analysis. For use in new and innovative studies that will improve understanding of this region, these data are hosted by U.S. Geological Survey data portals and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The Central Asia data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/VQ4CD3Y9YC0R (Jacob and Slinski, 2021), and the global data described in this paper can be accessed via the NASA repository at https://doi.org/10.5067/5NHC22T9375G (McNally, 2018).

Amy McNally↗
NASA NTRS1982

Combining remotely sensed and other measurements for hydrologic areal averages

A method is described for combining measurements of hydrologic variables of various sampling geometries and measurement accuracies to produce an estimated mean areal value over a watershed and a measure of the accuracy of the mean areal value. The method provides a means to integrate measurements from conventional hydrological networks and remote sensing. The resulting areal averages can be used to enhance a wide variety of hydrological applications including basin modeling. The correlation area method assigns weights to each available measurement (point, line, or areal) based on the area of the basin most accurately represented by the measurement. The statistical characteristics of the accuracy of the various measurement technologies and of the random fields of the hydrologic variables used in the study (water equivalent of the snow cover and soil moisture) required to implement the method are discussed.

Johnson, E. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integrating Data from GRACE and Other Observing Systems for Hydrological Research and Applications

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides a unique view of water cycle dynamics, enabling the only space based observations of water on and beneath the land surface that are not limited by depth. GRACE data are immediately useful for large scale applications such as ice sheet ablation monitoring, but they are even more valuable when combined with other types of observations, either directly or within a data assimilation system. Here we describe recent results of hydrological research and applications projects enabled by GRACE. These include the following: 1) global monitoring of interannual variability of terrestrial water storage and groundwater; 2) water balance estimates of evapotranspiration over several large river basins; 3) NASA's Energy and Water Cycle Study (NEWS) state of the global water budget project; 4) drought indicator products now being incorporated into the U.S. Drought Monitor; 5) GRACE data assimilation over several regions.

Rodell, M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Multi-Satellite Framework to Rapidly Evaluate Extreme Biosphere Cascades: The Western US 2021 Drought and Heatwave

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes and complex ecosystem responses motivate the need for integrated observational studies at low-latency to determine biosphere responses and carbon-climate feedbacks. Here, we develop a satellite-based rapid attribution workflow and demonstrate its use at a 1–2-month latency to attribute drivers of the carbon cycle feedbacks during the 2020-2021 Western US drought and heatwave. In the first half of 2021, concurrent negative photosynthesis anomalies and large positive column CO 2 anomalies were detected with satellites. Using a simple atmospheric mass balance approach, we estimate a surface carbon efflux anomaly of 132 TgC in June 2021, a magnitude corroborated 28 independently with a dynamic global vegetation model. Integrated satellite observations of hydrologic processes, representing the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC), show that these surface carbon flux anomalies are largely due to substantial reductions in photosynthesis because of a spatially widespread moisture-deficit propagation through the SPAC between 2020 and 2021. A causal model indicates deep soil moisture stores partially drove photosynthesis, maintaining its values in 2020 and driving its declines throughout 2021. The causal model also suggests legacy effects may have amplified photosynthesis deficits in 2021 beyond the direct effects of environmental forcing. The integrated, observation framework presented here provides a valuable first assessment of a biosphere extreme response and an independent testbed for improving drought propagation and mechanisms in models. The rapid identification of extreme carbon anomalies and hotspots can also aid mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Causal model↗
NASA NTRS1991

Terrestrial glacial eskers: Analogs for Martian sinuous ridges

A glacial model was introduced last year for the Argyre region, a concept which is now extended, and which was recently integrated with a Global Hydrologic Model incorporating many other aspects of Martian geology. Despite wide agreement that the Martian ridges strongly resemble glacial eskers, this hypothesis has been presented with great equivocation due to a perceived lack of other glacial landforms. Quite to the contrary, it is shown that the Martian ridges actually do occur in logical ordered sequences with many other types of characteristically glacial appearing landforms. Herein, the esker hypothesis is further supported in isolation from considerations of regional landform assemblages. It is concluded that Martian sinuous ridges are similar in every respect to terrestrial eskers: scale, morphology, planimetric pattern, and associations with other probable glaciogenic landforms. It is found that the esker hypothesis is well supported. Eskers are glaciofluvial structures, and owe their existence to large scale melting of stagnant temporate glaciers. Thus, eskers are indicators of an ameliorating climatic regime after a protracted episode of cold, humid conditions.

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comprehensive system models: Strategies for evaluation

The task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models is vast involving validations of every model component at every scale of organization, as well as tests of all the individual linkages. Even the most detailed evaluation of each of the component processes and the individual links among them should not, however, engender confidence in the performance of the whole. The integrated earth system is so rich with complex feedback loops, often involving components of the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere, and cryosphere, that it is certain to exhibit emergent properties very difficult to predict from the perspective of a narrow focus on any individual component of the system. Therefore, a substantial share of the task of evaluating comprehensive earth system models must reside at the level of whole system evaluations. Since complete, integrated atmosphere/ ocean/ biosphere/ hydrology models are not yet operational, questions of evaluation must be addressed at the level of the kinds of earth system processes that the models should be competent to simulate, rather than at the level of specific performance criteria. Here, we have tried to identify examples of earth system processes that are difficult to simulate with existing models and that involve a rich enough suite of feedbacks that they are unlikely to be satisfactorily described by highly simplified or toy models. Our purpose is not to specify a checklist of evaluation criteria but to introduce characteristics of the earth system that may present useful opportunities for model testing and, of course, improvement.

Field, Christopher↗