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At least 37 records · Page 2

Common Cause Case Study: An Estimated Probability of Four Solid Rocket Booster Hold-Down Post Stud Hang-ups

Until Solid Rocket Motor ignition, the Space Shuttle is mated to the Mobil Launch Platform in part via eight (8) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) hold-down bolts. The bolts are fractured using redundant pyrotechnics, and are designed to drop through a hold-down post on the Mobile Launch Platform before the Space Shuttle begins movement. The Space Shuttle program has experienced numerous failures where a bolt has hung up. That is, it did not clear the hold-down post before liftoff and was caught by the SRBs. This places an additional structural load on the vehicle that was not included in the original certification requirements. The Space Shuttle is currently being certified to withstand the loads induced by up to three (3) of eight (8) SRB hold-down experiencing a "hang-up". The results of loads analyses performed for (4) stud hang-ups indicate that the internal vehicle loads exceed current structural certification limits at several locations. To determine the risk to the vehicle from four (4) stud hang-ups, the likelihood of the scenario occurring must first be evaluated. Prior to the analysis discussed in this paper, the likelihood of occurrence had been estimated assuming that the stud hang-ups were completely independent events. That is, it was assumed that no common causes or factors existed between the individual stud hang-up events. A review of the data associated with the hang-up events, showed that a common factor (timing skew) was present. This paper summarizes a revised likelihood evaluation performed for the four (4) stud hang-ups case considering that there are common factors associated with the stud hang-ups. The results show that explicitly (i.e. not using standard common cause methodologies such as beta factor or Multiple Greek Letter modeling) taking into account the common factor of timing skew results in an increase in the estimated likelihood of four (4) stud hang-ups of an order of magnitude over the independent failure case.

Cross, Robert↗

Binary helium dwarf supernovae

The possibility of helium dwarf evolution to sufficiently high densities for violent helium ignition in low-massed binary systems is investigated. During accretional evolution the occurrence of thermonuclear runaway is found to be probable when the dwarf's mass approaches 1 solar mass, and steady-state discontinuous wave propagation considerations indicate that the dwarf is totally incinerated (i.e., its total mass burns to nuclear equilibrium) by a detonation wave. A numerical stellar dynamic investigation, including the full effects of nuclear statistical equilibrium and electron capture indicates total disruption for all reasonable dwarf central densities. For consistency with the cosmic element abundances, the conclusion of total disruption requires a low frequency for helium supernova events, implying that helium ignition in mass-exchanging binaries must occur at the lower densities of the relatively mild helium flash.

Mazurek, T. J.↗

Presumed PDF Modeling of Early Flame Propagation in Moderate to Intense Turbulence Environments

The present paper describes the results obtained from a one-dimensional time dependent numerical technique that simulates early flame propagation in a moderate to intense turbulent environment. Attention is focused on the development of a spark-ignited, premixed, lean methane/air mixture with the unsteady spherical flame propagating in homogeneous and isotropic turbulence. A Monte-Carlo particle tracking method, based upon the method of fractional steps, is utilized to simulate the phenomena represented by a probability density function (PDF) transport equation. Gaussian distributions of fluctuating velocity and fuel concentration are prescribed. Attention is focused on three primary parameters that influence the initial flame kernel growth: the detailed ignition system characteristics, the mixture composition, and the nature of the flow field. The computational results of moderate and intense isotropic turbulence suggests that flames within the distributed reaction zone are not as vulnerable, as traditionally believed, to the adverse effects of increased turbulence intensity. It is also shown that the magnitude of the flame front thickness significantly impacts the turbulent consumption flame speed. Flame conditions studied have fuel equivalence ratio s in the range phi = 0.6 to 0.9 at standard temperature and pressure.

Carmen, Christina↗

Computer program for prediction of capture maneuver probability for an on-off reaction controlled upper stage

A FORTRAN coded computer program which computes the capture transient of a launch vehicle upper stage at the ignition and/or separation event is presented. It is for a single degree-of-freedom on-off reaction jet attitude control system. The Monte Carlo method is used to determine the statistical value of key parameters at the outcome of the event. Aerodynamic and booster induced disturbances, vehicle and control system characteristics, and initial conditions are treated as random variables. By appropriate selection of input data pitch, yaw and roll axes can be analyzed. Transient response of a single deterministic case can be computed. The program is currently set up on a CDC CYBER 175 computer system but is compatible with ANSI FORTRAN computer language. This routine has been used over the past fifteen (15) years for the SCOUT Launch Vehicle and has been run on RECOMP III, IBM 7090, IBM 360/370, CDC6600 and CDC CYBER 175 computers with little modification.

Knauber, R. N.↗

Testing metals and alloys for use in oxygen systems

When oxygen is present in high concentrations or large quantities, as in oxygen-based life-support systems, the likelihood of combustion and the probable intensity of a conflagration increase, together with the severity of the damage caused. Even stainless steel will burn vigorously when ignited in a 1000-psi oxygen environment. The hazards involved in the use of oxygen increase with system operation at the elevated temperatures typical of propulsion systems. Fires in oxygen systems are generally catastrophic, causing a threat to life in manned vehicles. When mechanical components of a mechanism generate friction heat in the presence of oxygen, many commonly used metal alloys ignite and burn. Attention is presently given to frictional heating, particle impact, and flame propagation tests conducted in oxygen environments.

Stoltzfus, Joel M.↗

Mishaps with Oxygen in NASA Operations

Data from a substantial number of oxygen mishaps obtained from NASA and contractor records are presented. Information from several Air Force records, concerning oxygen accidents involving aircraft operations, are also included. Descriptions of the mishaps and their causes, for both liquid and gaseous oxygen in ground test facilities and space vehicle systems, are given. A number of safety regulations aimed at reducing the accident probability is discussed. The problems related to material compatibility and materials testing are considered, and the limited information on factors affecting the ignition of materials in oxygen is presented. In addition, details are given of several of the accident/incidents listed in order to define the combination of conditions causing the mishap. In addition to propellant system mishaps, accident/incidents which occurred in space and ground system structures were included, as well as those in electrical systems, ground support facilities, ordnance, and related operations.

Ordin, Paul M.↗

Modeling Forest Understory Fires in an Eastern Amazonian Landscape

Forest understory fires are an increasingly important cause of forest impoverishment in Ammonia, but little is known of the landscape characteristics and climatic phenomena that determine their occurrence. We developed empirical functions relating the occurrence of understory fires to landscape features near Paragominas, a 35- yr-old ranching and logging center in eastern Ammonia. An historical sequence of maps of forest understory fire was created based on field interviews With local farmers and Landsat TM images. Several landscape features that might explain spatial variations in the occurrence of understory fires were also mapped and co-registered for each of the sample dates, including: forest fragment size and shape, forest impoverishment through logging and understory fires, source of ignition (settlements and charcoal pits), roads, forest edges, and others. The spatial relationship between forest understory fire and each landscape characteristic was tested by regression analyses. Fire probability models were then developed for various combinations of landscape characteristics. The analyses were conducted separately for years of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are associated with severe drought in eastern Amazonia, and non-ENS0 years. Most (91 %) of the forest area that burned during the 10-yr sequence caught fire during ENSO years, when severe drought may have increased both forest flammability and the escape of agricultural management fires. Forest understory fires were associated with forest edges, as reported in previous studies from Ammonia. But the strongest predictor of forest fire was the percentage of the forest fragment that had been previously logged or burned. Forest fragment size, distance to charcoal pits, distance to agricultural settlement, proximity to forest edge, and distance to roads were also correlated with forest understory fire. Logistic regression models using information on fragment degradation and distance to ignition sources accurately predicted the location of lss than 80% of the forest fires observed during the ENSO event of 1997- 1998. In this Amazon landscape, forest understory fire is a complex function of several variables that influence both the flammability and ignition exposure of the forest.

Alencar, A. A. C.↗

Effect of gravity on halogenated hydrocarbon flame retardant effectiveness

Flammability limits, burning velocities, and minimum ignition energies under initially quiescent conditions were measured for stoichiometric and fuel-lean methane-, ethane-, and propane-air mixtures containing varying concentrations of Halon 1301. The characteristics of near-limit flames were strongly affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration. The conclusions were that the mechanism of the flammability limits was affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration, that the zero-g flammability limit is probably related to a stability criterion which is affected mostly by the molecular diffusion characteristics of the reactant gases and is mostly independent of chemical kinetics, and that the one-g upward flammability and ignition limits provide adequate criteria for safety at one-g and zero-g for both uninhibited and inhibited mixtures.

Ronney, P. D.↗

Effect of gravity on halogenated hydrocarbon flame retardant effectiveness

Flammability limits, burning velocities, and minimum ignition energies under initially quiescent conditions were measured for stoichiometric and fuel-lean methane-, ethane-, and propane-air mixtures containing varying concentrations of Halon 1301. The characteristics of near-limit flames were strongly affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration. The conclusions were that the mechanism of the flammability limits was affected by fuel type but not Halon concentration, that the zero-g flammability limit is probably related to a stability criterion which is affected mostly by the molecular diffusion characteristics of the reactant gases and is mostly independent of chemical kinetics, and that the one-g upward flammability and ignition limits provide adequate criteria for safety at one-g and zero-g for both uninhibited and inhibited mixtures.

Ronney, P. D.↗

Oxygen Compatibility Testing of Composite Materials

Composite materials offer significant weight-saving potential for aerospace applications in propellant and oxidizer tanks. This application for oxygen tanks presents the challenge of being oxygen compatible in addition to complying with the other required material characteristics. This effort reports on the testing procedures and data obtained in examining and selecting potential composite materials for oxygen tank usage. Impact testing of composites has shown that most of these materials initiate a combustion event when impacted at 72 ft-lbf in the presence of liquid oxygen, though testing has also shown substantial variability in reaction sensitivities to impact. Data for screening of 14 potential composites using the Bruceton method is given herein and shows that the 50-percent reaction frequencies range from 17 to 67 ft-lbf. The pressure and temperature rises for several composite materials were recorded to compare the energy releases as functions of the combustion reactions with their respective reaction probabilities. The test data presented are primarily for a test pressure of 300 psia in liquid oxygen. The impact screening process is compared with oxygen index and autogenous ignition test data for both the composite and the basic resin. The usefulness of these supplemental tests in helping select the most oxygen compatible materials is explored. The propensity for mechanical impact ignition of the composite compared with the resin alone is also examined. Since an ignition-free composite material at the peak impact energy of 72 ft-lbf has not been identified, composite reactivity must be characterized over the impact energy level and operating pressure ranges to provide data for hazard analyses in selecting the best potential material for liquid tank usage.

Engel, Carl D.↗

Lithium cell tests at Langley Research Center

The long duration exposure facility mission places temperature requirements of from -30 F to +150 F on the batteries to be used. A hermetically sealed lithium sulfur dioxide cell was tested to predict what the temperature of the battery would be over a given spectrum of temperatures of operation. Near the end of cell discharge, as the voltage started collapsing, a very high heat output rise due to chemical reaction took place. However, if the cells were thermally insulated, they vented, ignited, and burned if an attempt was made to discharge them all the way. The cells do not go into reversal. It was determined that the root of the problem was probably the chemical reaction between the lithium and the acetonitrite solvent. A redesigned cell is discussed as well as some alternates.

Bene, J.↗

The influence of structural response on sympathetic detonation

The role that a munition's structural response plays in the ignition process and the development of violent reactions and detonations is explored. The munition's structural response is identified as one of the factors that influences reaction violence. If the structural response of a round is known, this knowledge can be used to redstruce the probability that a large explosion would result from the sequential detonation of individual rounds within a large storage array. The response of an acceptor round was studied. The castings fail in the same manner regardless of whether or not there is a fill material present in the round. These failures are caused by stress waves which are transformed from compressive waves to tensile waves by reflection as the impact energy moves around the casting. Since these waves move in opposite directions around the projectile circumference and collide opposite the point of impact, very high tensile forces are developed which can crack the casing.

Watson, J. L.↗

Knocking Combustion Observed in a Spark-Ignition Engine with Simultaneous Direct and Schlieren High-Speed Motion Pictures and Pressure Records

Simultaneous direct and Schlieren photographs at 40,000 frames per second and correlated pressure records were taken of knocking combustion in a special spark-ignition engine to ascertain the intensity of certain end-zone reactions previously noted from Schlieren photography alone. A violent propagated homogeneous autoignition, or a similar phenomenon, previously observed, was again observed. The pressure records show autoignition of varying violence before the passage of a probable detonation wave. Extensive autoignition without occurrence of gas vibrations was seen in one explosion.

Osterstrom, Gordon E↗

Most Probable Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft and Extraterrestrial Habitats: Why NASA's Current Test 1 Might Not Always be Conservative

NASA's current method of material screening determines fire resistance under conditions representing a worst-case for normal gravity flammability - the Upward Flame Propagation Test (Test 1). Its simple pass-fail criteria eliminates materials that burn for more than 12 inches from a standardized ignition source. In addition, if a material drips burning pieces that ignite a flammable fabric below, it fails. The applicability of Test 1 to fires in microgravity and extraterrestrial environments, however, is uncertain because the relationship between this buoyancy-dominated test and actual extraterrestrial fire hazards is not understood. There is compelling evidence that the Test 1 may not be the worst case for spacecraft fires, and we don t have enough information to assess if it is adequate at Lunar or Martian gravity levels.

Olson, S. L.↗

Clarification of confirmation in the FACE-2 experiment

Definitions of the data acquisition and interpretation goals which were sought in the Florida Area Cumulus Experiment (FACE) phase-II experiment as confirmation of results from FACE-I are presented. The FACE-1 trials in cloud seeding to increase rainfall were conducted in 1970, '71, '73, '75, and '76 and phase II proceeded from June 1978-August 1980. The data from the second set were to be treated with a block randomization scheme using the mean vector wind speed and direction and superposition of rainfall data, considering fixed and floating target clouds. A first level of probability was configured to eliminate cells from further investigation, and then two other levels are included in the analyses, each of continually increasing levels of likelihood. The instances of rainfall with seeding cover periods of either 60 or more or 60 or less seeding flares being ignited.

Woodley, W. L.↗

Most Probable Fire Scenarios in Spacecraft and Extraterrestrial Habitats: Why NASA's Current Test 1 Might Not Always Be Conservative

NASA s current method of material screening determines fire resistance under conditions representing a worst-case for normal gravity flammability - the Upward Flame Propagation Test (Test 1[1]). Its simple pass-fail criteria eliminates materials that burn for more than 12 inches from a standardized ignition source. In addition, if a material drips burning pieces that ignite a flammable fabric below, it fails. The applicability of Test 1 to fires in microgravity and extraterrestrial environments, however, is uncertain because the relationship between this buoyancy-dominated test and actual extraterrestrial fire hazards is not understood. There is compelling evidence that the Test 1 may not be the worst case for spacecraft fires, and we don t have enough information to assess if it is adequate at Lunar or Martian gravity levels.

Olson, S. L.↗

Old Faithful Model for Radiolytic Gas-Driven Cryovolcanism at Enceladus

A new model is presented on how chemically driven cryovolcanism might contribute to episodic outgassing at the icy moon Enceladus and potentially elsewhere including Europa and Kuiper Belt Objects. Exposed water ices can become oxidized from radiolytic chemical alteration of near-surface water ice by space environment irradiation. In contact with primordially abundant reductants such as NH3, CH4, and other hydrocarbons, the product oxidants can react exothermically to produce volatile gases driving cryovolcanism via gas-piston forces on any subsurface liquid reservoirs. Radiolytic oxidants such as H2O2 and O2 can continuously accumulate deep in icy regoliths and be conveyed by rheological flows to subsurface chemical reaction zones over million-year time scales indicated by cratering ages for active regions of Enceladus and Europa. Surface blanketing with cryovolcanic plume ejecta would further accelerate regolith burial of radiolytic oxidants. Episodic heating from transient gravitational tides, radioisotope decay, impacts, or other geologic events might occasionally accelerate chemical reaction rates and ignite the exothermic release of cumulative radiolytic oxidant energy. The time history for the suggested "Old Faithful" model of radiolytic gas-driven cryovolcanism at Enceladus and elsewhere therefore consists of long periods of chemical energy accumulation punctuated by much briefer episodes of cryovolcanic activity. The most probable sequence for detection of activity in the current epoch is a long evolutionary phase of slow but continuous oxidant accumulation over billions of years followed by continuous but variable high activity over the past 10(exp 7)-10(exp 8) years. Detectable cryovolcanic activity could then later decline due to near-total oxidation of the rheologically accessible ice crust and depletion the accessible reductant abundances, as may have already occurred for Europa in the more intense radiation environment of Jupiter's magnetosphere. Astrobiological potential of Enceladus could correspondingly be higher than at Europa due to a less extreme state of oxidation and greater residual abundance of organics.

Cooper, John F.↗

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Ring, Robert W.↗