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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Enabling Low-Temperature (LTP) Ignition Technologies for Multi-Mode Engines through the Development of a Validated High-Fidelity LTP Model for Predicative Simulations Tools

The goal of multi-mode engine architectures is to extend current lean-burn dilution limits with renewable fuels, which requires spark plugs to deposit high energies (hundreds of mJ) in order to initiate ignition and complete combustion. At elevated energy deposition rates, spark plugs experience increased electrode erosion and thermal losses, which ultimately shortens the spark-plug lifetime and lowers ignition efficiency. As such, in order to safeguard the efficiency gains of multi-mode concepts, new and improved ignition technologies are required. Recently, non-equilibrium low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have been shown to promote energy-efficient ignition via quenching and transport of electronically excited atoms and molecules, selective radical production and fast heating of hydrocarbon/air mixtures [1-2]. Thus, LTP is seen as a technology that can potentially improve the energy extraction efficiency of fuels, while enabling kinetically controlled combustion modes towards fuel leaner conditions to realize current DOE VTO goals of improving the sustainability of future mobility [3]. Although many previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of plasma-assisted ignition to enhance combustion, the detailed enhancement mechanisms remain largely unknown, especially for oxygenated fuels and at elevated pressures that are most relevant to practical engine conditions. These barriers hinder the development of accurate and comprehensive numerical models that seek to describe LTP-based ignition in existing engine design software tools and methods. Current state-of-the-art simulation capabilities for LTP ignition systems are in need of improvements since they deliver qualitative results only due to important limitations of existing approaches. Firstly, validated kinetic models with elementary steps for plasma discharges in oxygenated fuel/air mixtures of relevance to the transportation sector are required. Such kinetic models do not exist at present and will be developed and validated within this project. Secondly, plasma discharges and reactive mixture ignition are multi-scale, unsteady processes requiring high-performance numerical methods and software that execute efficiently on DOE supercomputers. Such software does not exist at present and will be developed and applied to practical LTP ignition scenarios as part of this project. Thirdly, experimental databases that are tailored to serve as benchmark in support of the development of predictive computational models of LTP ignition do not exist and will be part of this project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Resilience-Oriented Assessment Approach for Transmission Networks Under Wildfires

The rising threat of wildfires poses significant challenges to power transmission networks, particularly in areas prone to such disasters. Traditional approaches for wildfire risk assessment neglect some potential wildfire scenarios. Here, this paper introduces a probabilistic resilience-oriented assessment approach for power transmission networks to address this gap. Initially, a probabilistic wildfire model is developed to capture uncertainties in ignition, intensity, and fire spread. Next, a spatiotemporal fragility model is constructed to assess the impact of wildfires on transmission corridors, incorporating Thermal Aging (TA) and Dynamic Thermal Rate (DTR) change. Finally, a comprehensive resilience metric is defined to evaluate system performance, leveraging the fragility model to determine component and system-level resilience. The approach employs a combinatorial enumeration method to generate potential wildfire scenarios, enhanced by an impact-increment-based state enumeration (IISE) method for computational efficiency. The proposed method provides critical insights for identifying system vulnerabilities and developing robust strategies to protect transmission networks from wildfires. The efficacy of this approach is validated through extensive scenarios of the RTS-GMLC system across Southern California, Nevada and Arizona.

Vahedi, Soroush [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Approaching hydro-equivalent ignition in laser direct-drive via target design optimization using novel statistical modeling

Laser direct-drive offers significant advantages in terms of target simplicity, improved energy coupling, and large fuel masses over indirect drive. However, performance degradations from hydrodynamic and laser-plasma instabilities seeded and driven by the direct illumination pose limitations on the parameter space available for achieving ignition. In this paper, new design improvements are identified to forge a path forward for a hydro-equivalent ignition demonstration. The first is related to a new formulation of the statistical model (SM) used to accurately predict target performance directly from input parameters such as laser pulse shape and target specifications. This new SM formulation provides direct guidance on target dimensions and laser beam-to-target radius to achieve the highest fusion yield on the OMEGA laser. The second improvement comes from cooling the deuterium–tritium (DT) ice layer below the triple point right before shot time leading to lower DT vapor densities and higher convergence. Guided by these design improvements, a Bayesian optimization algorithm was used to design an implosion that is predicted to closely approach a Lawson triple product that hydrodynamically scales to ignition if equivalent laser–target coupling is achieved at laser energies typical of the National Ignition Facility.

Deuterium↗
DOE OSTI2025

CFD modeling of near-wall combustion and unburned methane prediction in natural gas spark ignition engines

Natural gas-powered engines play a critical role in gas drilling, compression, and transmission sectors, but methane (CH 4 ) from engine combustion slip can be significant over their lifespan, contributing to atmospheric pollution and signaling reduced engine efficiency. Here, to address this challenge, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations offer valuable insights into the in-cylinder combustion process, enabling the optimization of combustion strategies and engine designs to minimize unburned CH 4 slip. This study aims to evaluate and improve combustion models for simulating the combustion process and predicting unburned CH 4 concentrations in natural gas spark-ignition (SI) engines, including engines that are part of combined reformer-engine systems. Specifically, the performance of two flamelet-based combustion models—the Extended Coherent Flame Model (ECFM) and the G-equation model—was assessed using experimental engine data collected under varying excess-air ratio (λ) conditions and fuel compositions, including natural gas and syngas blends. In addition, to enhance the predictive capabilities of the G-equation model, a flame-wall interaction (FWI) sub-model was integrated into its framework. The effects of its model parameters, such as quenching and influence distance, on combustion behavior and unburned methane predictions were analyzed in detail. The ECFM tended to predict delayed combustion phasing under diluted mixture conditions, resulting in overprediction of unburned CH 4 concentrations. In contrast, the G-equation model provided reasonable predictions of combustion pressure, while representing higher the CH 4 reduction rate across the operating condition compared to experimental data. Incorporating the FWI sub-model—with the quenching distance calculated based on a pressure-dependent relation (P -0.48 ) and a fixed influence distance of 1.5 mm—further improved the G-equation model’s accuracy in predicting CH 4 reduction rates without compromising its ability to simulate the combustion process.

Combustion model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flame Chemistry Workshop: a perspective on challenges and strategic actions in combustion experiments and chemical kinetics modeling

Continued progress in the development of predictive models for combustion chemistry—including ignition and flame behavior, species evolution, and combustion system performance—relies on overcoming enduring and emerging challenges in experimental measurements, theoretical formulations, and chemical kinetics mechanism construction. As combustion science continues to coincide with advances in sustainable fuels development, plasma technologies, and automated modeling capabilities, the need for coordinated, community-driven strategies is essential. The Flame Chemistry Workshop (FCWS), held biennially before the International Symposium on Combustion, serves as a dedicated platform to identify, consolidate, and address these challenges in a structured and collaborative manner. This perspective arises from discussions at the 7th FCWS in Milan, Italy (2024), and presents a collective view of the critical barriers currently limiting progress. Across the five technical domains discussed during the 7th FCWS – sustainable fuels combustion, advanced diagnostics for combustion measurements, experiments and modeling in plasma combustion, artificial intelligence and automated methods for theory and mechanisms generation, and chemical kinetic models—a series of persistent and emerging scientific challenges were identified, highlighting the need for deeper integration between three areas: theory, experiments, and modeling. In conclusion, the present article concisely describes present challenges that were identified in each of the technical domains in an effort to streamline and coordinate solutions to accelerate progress in combustion science.

Chemical kinetics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Key advancements toward eliminating the “drive deficit” in ICF hohlraum simulations

This paper, extended from a Letter [Chen et al., Phys. Rev. E 110, L013201 (2024)] published in Phys. Rev. E in 2024, presents detailed results from a set of experiments studying the x-ray drive produced in laser-heated ignition-scale hohlraums at the National Ignition Facility. The results reveal that deficiencies in non-local thermodynamic equilibrium atomics physics calculations of gold emissivity lead to the overestimation of the “M-band” radiation and are responsible for discrepancies in drive predictions vs measurements in these hohlraums. These experiments were performed on ViewFactor targets with the same gas fill and laser pulse shapes as currently used in ongoing ignition experiments. The common hohlraum model with a magnetohydrodynamics heat transport model and a 10%–20% reduction to the M-band absorption and emission opacity can bring the simulations into agreement with several independent measurements, including the absolute radiation flux, the radiation flux in the 2–4 keV spectral range, and spectroscopic measurements of both K-shell dopant and L-shell gold. This new model is applicable to ICF and high-energy density experiments that use gold hohlraums as drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal reaction models for methane combustion

A local-sensitivity-analysis technique is employed to generate new skeletal reaction models for methane combustion from the foundational fuel chemistry model (FFCM-1). Here, the sensitivities of the thermo-chemical variables with respect to the reaction rates are computed via the forced-optimally time dependent (f-OTD) methodology. In this methodology, the large sensitivity matrix containing all local sensitivities is modeled as a product of two low-rank time-dependent matrices. The evolution equations of these matrices are derived from the governing equations of the system. The modeled sensitivities are computed for the auto-ignition of methane at atmospheric and high pressures with different sets of initial temperatures, and equivalence ratios. These sensitivities are then analyzed to rank the most important (sensitive) species. A series of skeletal models with different number of species and levels of accuracy in reproducing the FFCM-1 results are suggested. The performances of the generated models are compared against FFCM-1 in predicting the ignition delay, the laminar flame speed, and the flame extinction. The results of this comparative assessment suggest the skeletal models with 24 and more species generate the FFCM-1 results with an excellent accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burn propagation in magnetized high-yield inertial fusion

Recent experiments at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have demonstrated ignition for the first time in an inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiment, a major milestone allowing the possibility of high energy gain through burn propagation. Use of external magnetic fields, applied primarily to reduce thermal losses, could increase hotspot temperature and ease requirements for ignition, opening up the capsule design space for high energy gain. However, this same restriction of thermal transport has the potential to inhibit burn propagation, which is vital in the attainment of high gain. In this work, radiation-magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations carried out using the code Chimera are used to investigate the effect of a pre-imposed magnetic field on ignition and burn propagation. This paper studies the propagation of burn using both an idealized planar model and in fully integrated 2D MHD simulations of an igniting NIF capsule. A study of magnetized burn propagation in the idealized planar model identifies three regimes of magnetized burn propagation: (1) thermal conduction driven; (2) alpha transport driven; and (3) fully suppressed burn. Simulations of NIF shot N210808 with an applied 40 T axial field show clear indication of burn suppression perpendicular to field lines, with rapid burn observed along field lines. Implosion shape is altered by the field, and anisotropic conduction causes significant modification to the rate of ablation during stagnation. These results highlight the fundamental changes to implosion dynamics in high-yield magnetized ICF and motivate further study to better optimize future magnetized target designs for high gain.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Uses of Magnetic Fields for Indirect-Drive Inertial Fusion

This project explored how applied magnetic fields can improve inertial confinement fusion (ICF), specifically the indirect-drive approach that uses a hohlraum. This has been proposed for several decades as potentially beneficial, due to thermal insulation (reduced losses) from the imploded hotspot. We performed the most advanced radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic modeling to date of magnetized ICF designs in the ignition regime. We found that adding technologically feasible fields up to 60 – 70 Tesla could increase the fusion yield of current igniting designs for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) by up to 8x. Also, simulations show that in certain cases relatively small fields of 3 – 5 Tesla could double the yield, and be implemented at much lower cost. Early work on re-optimizing NIF designs with magnetic fields, namely by using a thicker ablator with more mass remaining, could increase the yield of a sub-ignition target by 18x and bring it into the ignition regime. A separate benefit of magnetization besides reduced thermal loss is reduced hydrodynamic instability. Modeling work under this project shows this could be significant, though early experiments at NIF and the Omega Laser proved inconclusive. We designed and proposed an improved NIF experiment on magnetized mix, based on a large-amplitude imposed perturbation. The project also supported basic physics research into magnetized laser-plasma interactions, namely cross-beam energy transfer, both with experiments at Omega and theory / modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-dependent density-functional theory study on nonlocal electron stopping for inertial confinement fusion

Understanding laser–target coupling is of the utmost importance for achieving high performance in laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. Thus, accurate modeling of electron transport and deposition through ICF-relevant materials and conditions is necessary to quantify the total thermal conduction and ablation. The stopping range is a key transport quantity used in thermal conduction models; in this work, we review the overall role that the electron mean free path (MFP) plays in thermal conduction and hydrodynamic simulations. The currently used modified Lee–More model employs various physics approximations. We discuss a recent model that uses time-dependent density functional theory (TD-DFT) to eliminate these approximations in both the calculation of the electron stopping power and corresponding MFP in conduction zone polystyrene (CH) plasma. In general, the TD-DFT calculations showed a larger MFP (lower stopping power) than the standard modified Lee–More model. Using the TD-DFT results, an analytical model for the electron deposition range, λTD−DFT(ρ,T,K), was devised for CH plasmas between ρ=[0.05−1.05] g/cm3, kBT=[100−1000] eV. We implemented this model into LILAC, for simulations of a National Ignition Facility-scale LDD implosion and compared key physics quantities to ones obtained by simulations using the standard model. The implications of the obtained results and the path moving forward to calculate this same quantity in conduction-zone deuterium–tritium plasmas are further discussed, to hopefully close the understanding gap for laser target coupling in LDD-ICF simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling ablator defects as a source of mix in high-performance implosions at the National Ignition Facility

Recent indirect drive inertial confinement fusion implosions on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [Spaeth et al., Fusion Sci. Technol. 69, 25 (2016)] have crossed the threshold of ignition. However, performance has been variable due to several factors. One of the leading sources of variability is the quality of the high-density carbon (HDC) shells used as ablators in these experiments. In particular, these shells can have a number of defects that have been found to correlate with the appearance of ablator mix into the hot spot and a degradation in nuclear yield. These defects include pits on the ablator surface, voids in the ablator bulk, high-Z debris from the Hohlraum wall that adheres to the capsule surface, and finally the inherent granular micro-structure of the crystalline HDC itself. This paper summarizes high-resolution modeling of each of these mix sources in two recent high-performance NIF implosion experiments. The simulated impact from a range of individual capsule defects is found to be broadly consistent with the trends seen in experiment, lending credence to the modeling results and the details of the mixing process that they reveal. Interestingly, modeling of the micro-structure inherent to HDC shows that this perturbation source results in considerable mixing of the deuterium–tritium fuel with ablator material during the implosion. The reduction in fuel compression from this mix results in an approximately factor of two reduction in neutron yield in current implosions and emphasizes the importance of mitigating this significant performance degradation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preliminary Kinetic Analysis of Non-Equilibrium Plasma- Assisted Methanol Pyrolysis and Oxidation Experiments

Efforts to enhance power generation efficiency and reduce emissions have driven interest in novel combustion techniques, including non-equilibrium plasma (NEP) ignitors. NEP ignitors show promise in improving energy conversion efficiency, fuel reforming, emission control, and lean-flammability limits. However, their adoption is hindered by a limited understanding of the interplay between plasma-enhanced combustion and thermal chemistry, particularly for complex fuels under engine-relevant conditions. Developing experimentally validated kinetic mechanisms is therefore critical. Additionally, the increasing interest in renewable biofuels like ethanol and methanol, coupled with the desirable qualities of NEP ignitors, presents a compelling opportunity for study. Therefore, this work acts as an extension of a previous work (Bopaiah et al., 2023) pertaining to the experimental results of NEP-assisted methanol pyrolysis and oxidation. Experiments were performed with a custom-built plasma flow reactor at 0.5 atm and temperatures from 523-1203 K. All reactive mixtures are extremely diluted to minimize exothermicity due to reactivity, allowing isothermal assumptions and the isolation of plasma chemistry from thermal chemistry. A dielectric barrier discharge plasma, at 14 kV and 15 ns full-width half maximum, was applied to the reactive mixture at varying frequencies to maintain the number of pulses with increasing temperature. Steady-state product speciation was performed downstream of the reactor with ex-situ GC/MS diagnostics. The attained experimental results were examined through in-depth analysis performed by means of an in-development plasma-coupled kinetic mechanism. As discussed in the previous work, the plasma significantly accelerates methanol pyrolysis, increasing stable intermediate production, including oxygenated and nitrile species. Plasma-assisted oxidation shows even faster fuel consumption compared to pyrolysis and a 200 K ignition shift compared to thermal oxidation. For plasma-assisted pyrolysis, the model demonstrates that accelerated fuel consumption stems from dissociative quenching of excited N2 states with fuel and H2, generating H radicals that react to rapidly form CH3 and CH2OH radicals. At low temperatures, these radicals recombine to produce oxygenates, while CH3 drives nitrile and hydrocarbon formation at higher temperatures. While the model captures pyrolysis trends well, discrepancies in methane, ethylene, and ethanol predictions are present. Similarly, the model faces challenges in accurately representing plasma-assisted oxidation, predicting a much steeper fuel gradient and ignition 100 K earlier than the experiment. While a similar scheme to pyrolysis is nested in the reaction pathway, the enhancement of the O and H radical fluxes and their initiation of the OH and HO2 radical pools dominate fuel and intermediate oxidation. The overestimation of these processes is shown to be responsible for the divergence of model from experiment. While the modelling predictions of this preliminary mechanism are not perfect, they serve as a valuable starting point. Primarily, they elicited new reaction pathways that are not otherwise possible in thermal chemistry induced reaction kinetics. The results also provide a basis for the future work that should be performed. For example, theoretical and experimental studies on excited nitrogen species and fuel/fuel radical interactions, quantification of the NOx production, and the kinetics behind the slow ignition observed in oxidation should be emphasized.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Symbolic construction of the chemical Jacobian of quasi-steady state (QSS) chemistries for Exascale computing platforms

The Quasi-Steady State Approximation (QSSA) can be an effective tool for reducing the size and stiffness of chemical mechanisms for implementation in computational reacting flow solvers. However, for many applications, the resulting model still requires implicit methods for efficient time integration. Here, in this paper, we outline an approach to formulating the QSSA reduction that is coupled with a strategy to generate C++ source code to evaluate the net species production rates, and the chemical Jacobian. The code-generation component employs a symbolic approach enabling a simple and effective strategy to analytically compute the chemical Jacobian. For computational tractability, the symbolic approach needs to be paired with common subexpression elimination which can negatively affect memory usage. Several solutions are outlined and successfully tested on a 3D multipulse ignition problem, thus allowing portable application across chemical model sizes and GPU capabilities. The implementation of the proposed method is available at https://github.com/AMReX-Combustion/PelePhysics under an open-source license.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗