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At least 37 records · Page 2

ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution using the Community Ice Sheet Model

Abstract. The future retreat rate for marine-based regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest uncertainties in sea-level projections. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) aims to improve projections and quantify uncertainties by running an ensemble of ice sheet models with atmosphere and ocean forcing derived from global climate models. Here, the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM) is used to run ISMIP6-based projections of ocean-forced Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. Using multiple combinations of sub-ice-shelf melt parameterizations and calibrations, CISM is spun up to steady state over many millennia. During the spin-up, basal friction parameters and basin-scale thermal forcing corrections are adjusted to optimize agreement with the observed ice thickness. The model is then run forward for 550 years, from 1950–2500, applying ocean thermal forcing anomalies from six climate models. In all simulations, the ocean forcing triggers long-term retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, especially in the Filchner–Ronne and Ross sectors. Mass loss accelerates late in the 21st century and then rises steadily for several centuries without leveling off. The resulting ocean-forced sea-level rise at year 2500 varies from about 150 to 1300 mm, depending on the melt scheme and ocean forcing. Further experiments show relatively high sensitivity to the basal friction law, moderate sensitivity to grid resolution and the prescribed collapse of small ice shelves, and low sensitivity to the stress-balance approximation. The Amundsen sector exhibits threshold behavior, with modest retreat under many parameter settings but complete collapse under some combinations of low basal friction and high thermal forcing anomalies. Large uncertainties remain, as a result of parameterized sub-shelf melt rates, simplified treatments of calving and basal friction, and the lack of ice–ocean coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness

Abstract To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx): 2. Evaluating Linear Kinematic Features in High-Resolution Sea Ice Simulations

Simulating sea ice drift and deformation in the Arctic Ocean is still a challenge because of the multiscale interaction of sea ice floes that compose the Arctic Sea ice cover. The Sea Ice Rheology Experiment (SIREx) is a model intercomparison project of the Forum of Arctic Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS). In SIREx, skill metrics are designed to evaluate different recently suggested approaches for modeling linear kinematic features (LKFs) to provide guidance for modeling small-scale deformation. These LKFs are narrow bands of localized deformation that can be observed in satellite images and also form in high resolution sea ice simulations. In this contribution, spatial and temporal properties of LKFs are assessed in 36 simulations of state-of-the-art sea ice models and compared to deformation features derived from the RADARSAT Geophysical Processor System. All simulations produce LKFs, but only very few models realistically simulate at least some statistics of LKF properties such as densities, lengths, or growth rates. All SIREx models overestimate the angle of fracture between conjugate pairs of LKFs and LKF lifetimes pointing to inaccurate model physics. The temporal and spatial resolution of a simulation and the spatial resolution of atmospheric boundary condition affect simulated LKFs as much as the model's sea ice rheology and numerics. Only in very high resolution simulations (≤2 km) the concentration and thickness anomalies along LKFs are large enough to affect air-ice-ocean interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Metatranscriptomic analysis reveals dissimilarity in viral community activity between an ice-free and ice-covered winter in Lake Erie

Winter is a relatively under-studied season in freshwater ecology. The paucity of wintertime surveys has led to a lack of knowledge regarding microbial community activity during the winter in Lake Erie, a North American Great Lake. Viruses shape microbial communities and regulate biogeochemical cycles by acting as top-down controls, yet very few efforts have been made to examine active virus populations during the winter in Lake Erie. Furthermore, climate change-driven declines in seasonal ice cover have been shown to influence microbial community structure, but no studies have compared viral community activity between different ice cover conditions. We surveyed surface water metatranscriptomes for viral hallmark genes as a proxy for active virus populations and compared activity metrics between ice-covered and ice-free conditions from two sampled winters. Transcriptionally active viral communities were detected in both winters, spanning diverse phylogenetic clades of putative bacteriophage (Caudoviricetes), giant viruses (Nucleocytoviricota, or NCLDV), and RNA viruses (Orthornavirae). However, viral community activity metrics revealed pronounced differences between the ice-covered and ice-free winters. Viral community composition was distinct between winters and viral hallmark gene richness was reduced in the ice-covered relative to the ice-free conditions. In addition, the observed differences in viral communities correlated with microbial community activity metrics. Overall, these findings contribute to our understanding of the viral populations that are active during the winter in Lake Erie and suggest that viral community activity may be associated with ice cover extent.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A New Method for Ice-Ice Aggregation in the Adaptive Habit Model

In this paper, a novel methodology for modeling ice-ice aggregation is presented. This methodology combines a modified hydrodynamic collection algorithm with bulk aggregate characteristic information from an offline simulator that collects ice particles, namely, the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator, and has been implemented into the Adaptive Habit Microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Aggregates, or snow, are formed via collection of cloud ice particles, where initial ice characteristics and the resulting geometry determine aggregate characteristics. Upon implementation, idealized squall-line simulations are performed to examine the new methodology in comparison with commonly used bulk microphysics schemes. It is found that the adaptive habit aggregation parameterization develops snow and reduces ice mass and number concentrations compared to other schemes. The development of aggregates through the new methodology cascades into other interesting effects, including enhancements in ice and snow growth, as well as homogeneous freezing. Further microphysical analyses reveal varying sensitivities, where snow processes are most sensitive to the new parameterization, followed by ice, then cloud, rain, and graupel processes. Further, the new scheme results in enhancements in surface precipitation due to the persistence of snow at lower altitudes. This persistence is a result of shape-dependent melting and sublimation, increasing the residence time. Moreover, these low-level enhancements are reflected in increases in radar reflectivity at the surface and its spatial distribution. Finally, the ability to predict snow shape and density allows for the simulation of polarimetric radar quantities, resulting in signature enhancements compared to schemes that do not consider spatial and temporal variations in snow shape and density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Framework for Characterizing the Risk of Ice Fall and Ice Throw from Small Wind Turbines

Small wind turbines rated up through 100 kW in size are typically deployed as distributed energy resources. Their proximity to populations, buildings, and other infrastructure can generate safety concerns regarding ice throw (ice detaching from operational turbines) and ice fall (ice detaching from a turbine during standstill or idling) even when the turbines are not installed in cold climates. This paper presents a data-driven approach to characterize and mitigate the potential risk from icing on small wind turbines. By identifying how likely it is that an icing event will occur each year, estimating the distances at which ice could throw or fall from the turbine, defining the risk context, and establishing risk management practices, small wind turbine developers and installers can help address communities’ safety concerns around ice throw and ice fall.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evidence of Abrupt Transitions Between Sea Ice Dynamical Regimes in the East Greenland Marginal Ice Zone

Sea ice modulates the energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean through its kinematics. Marginal ice zone (MIZ) dynamics are complex and are not well resolved in routine observations. Here, we investigate sea ice dynamics in the Greenland Sea MIZ using in situ and remote sensing Lagrangian drift datasets. These datasets provide a unique view into ice dynamics spanning spatial scales. We find evidence of tidal currents strongly affecting sub-daily ice motion. Velocity anomalies show abrupt transitions aligned with gradients in seafloor topography, indicating changes in ocean currents. Remote-sensed ice floe trajectories derived from moderate resolution satellite imagery provide a view of small-scale variability across the Greenland continental shelf. Ice floe trajectories reveal a west-east increasing velocity gradient imposed by the East Greenland Current, with maximum velocities aligned along the continental shelf edge. These results highlight the importance of small scale ocean variability for ice dynamics in the MIZ.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric ice nuclei concentration measurements over a high altitude-station in the Western Ghats, India

Mixed-phase and ice clouds play a significant role in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, and modeling studies suggest that inaccurate representation of ice nucleating particles (INP) is one of the factors, which have resulted in a deficiency in the prediction of cloud properties and hydrological cycle. We do not understand the ice nucleation mechanisms to represent the ice formation in the model, and therefore more INP measurements at various supercooled temperatures are needed. This study reports for the first time real-time INP concentration at a high altitude station in the Western Ghats region of India, and these results will be used to constrain the ice nucleation parameterizations in the model. The variation of INP for any particular cloud condition can have strong microphysical responses of mixed-phase precipitation formation processes. Also, to improve the representation of heterogeneous ice nucleation, INP measurements of various types of aerosols commonly observed over the Indian region are needed. This study presents, the INP concentrations and daily concentration of non-refractory chemical composition (organics, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and chloride), cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and aerosol size distribution. Spectrometer for Ice Nuclei (SPIN) was operated to measure INP concentration at the mountain site from August to December 2018. INP measurements were performed at three different temperatures (-25, -30, and - 34 °C) in the immersion freezing mode relevant for mixed-phase cloud conditions. The average INP concentrations approximately varied from 0.18 to 12.4 L-1, 0.39 to 24 L-1, 1.1 to 40.2 L-1 at -25, -30, and - 34 °C, respectively. These concentrations are within the concentrations reported in the literature from different regions across the globe. The air mass back trajectory analysis showed that continental air mass contains more INP compared to maritime air mass. The information on INP concentration and chemical characteristics of aerosol will help to improve heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization in numerical models.

Kumar, Anil V.↗

A review of black carbon in snow and ice and its impact on the cryosphere

Black carbon (BC) has emerged as an important short-lived climate forcer. Due to its light absorption properties, BC can darken the snow/ice surface, affect the energy balance, and further lead to acceleration of the cryospheric melting. By reviewing the recent published literatures, we present an overview of the historical changes, spatial distribution of BC in snow/ice, and how these changes are related to the melting of the cryosphere (e.g., glaciers, snow cover, and sea ice). Ice core records show an abrupt increase of BC concentrations that began in the 1850s and continued throughout the 20th century, which is consistent with an increase in BC emissions owing to industrialization. A decrease in the amount of BC since 1970s in Arctic and European ice cores has been partially attributed to the Clean Air Act. However, in the Himalayas, BC records show a continuous increase during this period. BC concentrations in snow and ice in the mid-latitude regions are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the polar regions. In particular, BC concentrations in aged snow and granular ice in ablation areas of mountain glaciers are one to three orders of magnitude higher than those in fresh snow or snowpits in the glacier accumulation areas due to BC accumulation during melting season. BC in the surface snow/ice is responsible for about 20% of the albedo reduction in the Tibetan Plateau during glacier melt season. Globally, observations and modeling results indicate that radiative forcing (RF) induced by BC in snow and ice is highest in the mid-latitudes, ranging from several W m–2 in fresh snow to hundreds of W m–2 in aged snow and granular ice in glacier ablation areas. The large BC-in-snow RF and associated snow albedo feedback lead to an acceleration in the total glacier melt (approximately 20%) and/or a reduction in the duration of the snow cover by several days, resulting in an increase of glacier discharge. Given our limited understanding of the role of BC in cryospheric melting, it is important to synthesize the existing research on the multi-scale processes related to BC in snow and ice to identify the gaps in our understanding of these processes and to propose a path forward to improve the quality of our observations of the aforementioned phenomena to fill these gaps.

Kang, Shichang↗

Linear Response Function Reveals the Most Effective Remote Forcing in Causing September Arctic Sea Ice Melting in CESM

We apply the linear response function method to investigate the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice and its corresponding remote oceanic forcing in climate models. The method is useful in identifying the fundamental, dynamical and causal relationship between the remote forcing and sea ice response. We find that the most excitable mode of the September Arctic sea ice preferentially takes place over the Pacic side of the Arctic and its remote forcing corresponds to a dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly in the tropics with an increase of precipitation over the western and central tropical and subtropical Pacic ocean while a decrease over the Maritime Continent. The tropical precipitation anomaly likely drives a Rossby wave train propagating toward higher latitudes and leads to a ridge anomaly over the Pacic side of the Arctic, resulting in poleward atmospheric heat transport, enhanced downward longwave radiation and thus melting of the sea ice. In addition, a good agreement is found with the leading tropical Arctic teleconnection mode detected in a pre-industrial control simulation, which supports the usefulness and robustness of the linear response function method and the importance of tropical forcing in shaping the sea ice variability.

Wu, Yutian↗

Retreat and Regrowth of the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial as Simulated by the CESM2‐CISM2 Coupled Climate–Ice Sheet Model

Abstract During the Last Interglacial, approximately 129 to 116 ka (thousand years ago), the Arctic summer climate was warmer than the present, and the Greenland Ice Sheet retreated to a smaller extent than its current state. Previous model‐derived and geological reconstruction estimates of the sea‐level contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Last Interglacial vary widely. Here, we conduct a transient climate simulation from 127 to 119 ka using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2), which includes a dynamic ice sheet component (the Community Ice Sheet Model, CISM2) that is interactively coupled to the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea ice components. Vegetation distribution is updated every 500 years based on biomes simulated using a monthly climatology to force the BIOME4 equilibrium vegetation model. Results show a substantial retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet, reaching a minimum extent at 121.9 ka, equivalent to a 3.0 m rise in sea level relative to the present day, followed by gradual regrowth. In contrast, a companion simulation employing static vegetation based on pre‐industrial conditions shows a much smaller ice‐sheet retreat, highlighting the importance of the changes in high‐latitude vegetation distribution for amplifying the ice‐sheet response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multiple freezing–melting pathways of high-density ice through ice XXI phase at room temperature

Various metastable ice phases and their complicated transition pathways have been found by pressurization at low temperatures at which slow kinetics and high metastability are easily achieved. By contrast, such diversity is less expected at room or elevated temperatures. Here, using a combination of a dynamic diamond anvil cell and X-ray free electron laser techniques, we demonstrate that supercompressed water transforms into ice VI through multiple freezing–melting pathways at room temperature, hidden within the pressure region of ice VI. These multiple transition pathways occur via a metastable ice (more specifically, ice XXI with body-centred tetragonal structure ($I\bar{4}2d$)) discovered in this study and a metastable ice VII that exists within the pressure range of ice VI. We find that supercompressed water structurally evolves from high-density water to very-high-density water, causing multiple transition pathways. These findings provide an insight to find more metastable ice phases and their transition pathways at elevated temperatures.

Lee, Yun-Hee [Korea Research Institute of Standard↗

A rigorous framework for an improved Messinger/Myers model of ice accretion under conditions of variable property and unsteady aircraft icing

We analyse the Messinger/Myers model by critically evaluating simplifying assumptions through a rigorous formulation of the rime ice accretion process. We explore the effects of both constant and variable ice density and thermal conductivity, along with the effects of sublimation from the ice surface. The effects of key factors such as droplet impact rate, ambient temperature relative to the freezing temperature and the temperature difference between the ambient air and the airfoil surface are examined. Under these varying conditions, the present rigorous formulation is used to assess the significance of unsteady effects, variable ice properties and sublimation. We observe that the Myers model performs remarkably well in certain icing situations and analyse the reasons for this strong performance. We also show that partially relaxing the model’s assumptions can lead to poorer performance. The Myers model can lead to overprediction of ice surface temperature and correspondingly underprediction of transition time under conditions of relatively weak sublimation and surface cooling. A modified Myers model is presented, which can be used to recover near-perfect results under widely varying icing conditions of relevance. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Investigating anode off-gas under spark-ignition combustion for SOFC-ICE hybrid systems

Solid oxide fuel cell – internal combustion engine (SOFC-ICE) hybrid systems are an attractive solution for electricity generation. The system can achieve up to 70% theoretical electric power conversion efficiency through energy cascading enabled by utilizing the anode off-gas from the SOFC as the fuel source for the ICE. Experimental investigations were conducted with a single cylinder Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine by altering fuel-air equivalence ratio (φ), and compression ratio (CR) to study the engine load, combustion characteristics, and emissions levels of dry SOFC anode off-gas consisting of 33.9% H 2 , 15.6% CO, and 50.5% CO 2 . The combustion efficiency of the anode off-gas was directly evaluated by measuring the engine-out CO emissions. The highest net-indicated fuel conversion efficiency of 31.3% occurred at φ = 0.90 and CR = 13:1. These results demonstrate that the anode off-gas can be successfully oxidized using a spark ignition combustion mode. The fuel conversion efficiency of the anode tail gas is expected to further increase in a more modern engine architecture that can achieve increased burn rates in comparison to the CFR engine. NO x emissions from the combustion of anode off-gas were minimal as the cylinder peak temperatures never exceeded 1800 K. This experimental study ultimately demonstrates the viability of an ICE to operate using an anode off-gas, thus creating a complementary role for an ICE to be paired with a SOFC in a hybrid power generation plant.

Engineering↗

Marine ice sheet experiments with the Community Ice Sheet Model

Ice sheet models differ in their numerical treatment of dynamical processes. Simulations of marine-based ice are sensitive to the choice of Stokes flow approximation and basal friction law and to the treatment of stresses and melt rates near the grounding line. We study the effects of these numerical choices on marine ice sheet dynamics in the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM). In the framework of the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project 3d (MISMIP3d), we show that a depth-integrated, higher-order solver gives results similar to a 3D (Blatter–Pattyn) solver. We confirm that using a grounding line parameterization to approximate stresses in the grounding zone leads to accurate representation of ice sheet flow with a resolution of ~2 km, as opposed to ~0.5 km without the parameterization. In the MISMIP+ experimental framework, we compare different treatments of sub-shelf melting near the grounding line. In contrast to recent studies arguing that melting should not be applied in partly grounded cells, it is usually beneficial in CISM simulations to apply some melting in these cells. This suggests that the optimal treatment of melting near the grounding line can depend on ice sheet geometry, forcing, or model numerics. In both experimental frameworks, ice flow is sensitive to the choice of basal friction law. To study this sensitivity, we evaluate friction laws that vary the connectivity between the basal hydrological system and the ocean near the grounding line. CISM yields accurate results in steady-state and perturbation experiments at a resolution of ~2 km (arguably 4 km) when the connectivity is low or moderate and ~1 km (arguably 2 km) when the connectivity is strong.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase Equilibrium of Water with Hexagonal and Cubic Ice Using the SCAN Functional

Machine learning models are rapidly becoming widely used to simulate complex physicochemical phenomena with ab initio accuracy. Here, we use one such model as well as direct density functional theory (DFT) calculations to investigate the phase equilibrium of water, hexagonal ice (Ih), and cubic ice (Ic), with an eye toward studying ice nucleation. The machine learning model is based on deep neural networks and has been trained on DFT data obtained using the SCAN exchange and correlation functional. We use this model to drive enhanced sampling simulations aimed at calculating a number of complex properties that are out of reach of DFT-driven simulations and then employ an appropriate reweighting procedure to compute the corresponding properties for the SCAN functional. This approach allows us to calculate the melting temperature of both ice polymorphs, the driving force for nucleation, the heat of fusion, the densities at the melting temperature, the relative stability of ices Ih and Ic, and other properties. We find a correct qualitative prediction of all properties of interest. In some cases, quantitative agreement with experiment is better than for state-of-the-art semiempirical potentials for water. Furthermore, our results also show that SCAN correctly predicts that ice Ih is more stable than ice Ic.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Abundance and Sources of Ice Nucleating Particles Within Alaskan Ice Fog

Abstract The Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis (ALPACA) field campaign included deployment of a suite of atmospheric measurements in January–February 2022 with the goal of better understanding atmospheric processes and pollution under cold and dark conditions in Fairbanks, Alaska. We report on measurements of particle composition, particle size, ice nucleating particle (INP) composition, and INP size during an ice fog period (29 January–3 February). During this period, coarse particulate matter (PM 10 ) concentrations increased by 150% in association with a decrease in air temperature, a stronger temperature inversion, and relatively stagnant conditions. Results also show a 18%–78% decrease in INPs during the ice fog period, indicating that particles had activated into the ice fog via nucleation. Peroxide and heat treatments performed on INPs indicated that, on average, the largest contributions to the INP population were heat‐labile (potentially biological, 63%), organic (31%), then inorganic (likely dust, 6%). Measurements of levoglucosan and bulk and single‐particle composition corroborate the presence of dust and aerosols from combustion sources. Heat‐labile and organic INPs decreased during the peak period of the ice fog, indicating those were preferentially activated, while inorganic INPs increased, suggesting they remained as interstitial INPs. In general, INP concentrations were unexpectedly high in Fairbanks compared to other locations in the Arctic during winter. The fact that these INPs likely facilitated ice fog formation in Fairbanks has implications for other high latitude locations subject to the hazards associated with ice fog.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Swirls and scoops: Ice base melt revealed by multibeam imagery of an Antarctic ice shelf

Knowledge gaps about how the ocean melts Antarctica’s ice shelves, borne from a lack of observations, lead to large uncertainties in sea level predictions. Using high-resolution maps of the underside of Dotson Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we reveal the imprint that ice shelf basal melting leaves on the ice. Convection and intermittent warm water intrusions form widespread terraced features through slow melting in quiescent areas, while shear-driven turbulence rapidly melts smooth, eroded topographies in outflow areas, as well as enigmatic teardrop-shaped indentations that result from boundary-layer flow rotation. Full-thickness ice fractures, with bases modified by basal melting and convective processes, are observed throughout the area. This new wealth of processes, all active under a single ice shelf, must be considered to accurately predict future Antarctic ice shelf melt.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗