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DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Interpretability in Generative Modeling: Statistically Disentangled Latent Spaces Guided by Generative Factors in Scientific Datasets

This study addresses the challenge of statistically extracting generative factors from complex, high-dimensional datasets in unsupervised or semi-supervised settings. We investigate encoder-decoder-based generative models for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, focusing on disentangling low-dimensional latent variables corresponding to independent physical factors. Introducing Aux-VAE, a novel architecture within the classical Variational Autoencoder framework, we achieve disentanglement with minimal modifications to the standard VAE loss function by leveraging prior statistical knowledge through auxiliary variables. These variables guide the shaping of the latent space by aligning latent factors with learned auxiliary variables. We validate the efficacy of Aux-VAE through comparative assessments on multiple datasets, including astronomical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Quantum Networks with Discrete Polarizations and Continuous Quadrature Variables

Final Scientific/Technical Report for DOE Project DE-SC0022069. Quantum communication and computation systems have evolved along two largely independent paradigms: discrete-variable (DV) systems that encode information in qubits such as photon polarizations or photon-number states, and continuous-variable (CV) systems that encode information in optical field quadratures. Each approach offers distinct advantages—DVs provide low error rates and compatibility with single-photon platforms, while CVs support deterministic operations and efficient quantum state manipulation. A fundamental challenge for building a scalable Quantum Internet lies in interfacing these two regimes into a unified hybrid architecture that can coherently distribute and process quantum information across heterogeneous quantum nodes. This project aims to develop and demonstrate a hybrid optical quantum network that seamlessly integrates DV and CV systems. Specifically, we investigate a new class of hybrid entanglement between the discrete polarizations of single photons and the continuous quadrature variables of optical cat states, overcoming incompatibilities in existing DV–CV demonstrations. Using this new entanglement resource, the team investigates a multi-node hybrid quantum local area network (Q-LAN) testbed capable of DV–CV entanglement generation, swapping, and distribution across fiber links.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural Design of Bismuth Telluride Nanoplates through Process Variables

Binary pnictogen chalcogen compounds, primarily bismuth tellurides and selenides, are of great interest due to their applications in emerging quantum devices, as well as thermoelectric generators. The performance of bismuth telluride in these roles depends on its structure at the nanoscale, particularly the size, shape, and crystallinity of its nanocrystalline forms. However, current methods for controlling these features are often slow, inconsistent, or difficult to scale. Here, we demonstrate that through a solvothermal synthesis and hot injection process, precise control over the morphology of bismuth telluride nanoplates is possible with independent tuning of process variables, such as temperature and reaction time. We find that the nanoplate shape and internal porosity vary systematically with synthesis temperature and that the same morphological outcomes can be rapidly achieved at a fixed temperature by adjusting reaction duration. These results reveal that both the temperature and time can independently direct bismuth telluride morphological features, allowing for rapid, tunable synthesis strategies. Our approach offers a scalable framework, not only for bismuth telluride but also for related layered chalcogenides used in energy harvesting and quantum technologies.

Ackley, Jordan [Boise State Univ., ID (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fuel cells for single-aisle regional aircraft: System configuration, performance and cost

A hydrogen fuel cell propelled electric aircraft can compete with incumbent turbofan technologies for single-aisle regional aircraft by coupling design of stack, air handling, thermal management, propulsion, and airframe to optimize performance. The stack operates at 95°C to facilitate heat rejection during take-off and below 75°C during cruise to extend lifetime and is oversized to satisfy power requirements at end of life. A multi-stage turbocompressor with a compression ratio >10 is selected to reach high stack power density at 11,300-m cruise altitude. The propulsion system is configured to accommodate air handling within the core duct, an inclined heat exchanger in the outer duct to limit the nacelle size, and variable area nozzles to independently control mass flows through the core and bypass ducts. The airframe is modified for maximum lift coefficient and longer balanced field length for dramatically reduced thrust during take-off, and the fuselage is stretched by 20% to store liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ). Modularization of power systems promotes safety in one engine inoperative scenarios and allows reaching specific power metrics for stack, balance-of-plant and fuel cell system (FCS), necessary for acceptable take-off weight. In conclusion, cost parity requires increase in FCS lifetime, LH 2 cost reduction, and improved FCS specific power.

Catalyst durability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Critical fluid dynamics in two and three dimensions

We describe a numerical method for simulating stochastic fluid dynamics near a critical point in the Ising universality class. This theory is known as model H, and is expected to govern the nonequilibrium dynamics of quantum chromodynamics (QCD) near a possible critical endpoint of the phase transition between a hadron liquid and the quark-gluon plasma. The numerical algorithm is based on a Metropolis scheme, and automatically ensures that the distribution function of the hydrodynamic variables in equilibrium is independent of the transport coefficients and only governed by the microscopic free energy. We verify dynamic scaling near the critical point of a two and three-dimensional fluid and extract the associated critical exponent z. Here, we find z≃3 in three dimensions, and z≃2 for a two-dimensional fluid. In a finite system, we observe a crossover between the mean field value z=4 and the true critical exponent z≃3 (z≃2 in d=2). This crossover is governed by the values of the correlation length and the renormalized shear viscosity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Class of Sparse Johnson–Lindenstrauss Transforms and Analysis of their Extreme Singular Values

The Johnson–Lindenstrauss (JL) lemma is a powerful tool for dimensionality reduction in modern algorithm design. The lemma states that any set of high-dimensional points in a Euclidean space can be projected into lower dimensions while approximately preserving pairwise Euclidean distances. Random matrices satisfying this lemma are called JL transforms (JLTs). Inspired by existing $s$-hashing JLTs with exactly $s$ nonzero elements on each column, the present work introduces an ensemble of sparse matrices encompassing so-called $s$-hashing-like matrices whose expected number of nonzero elements on each column is $s$. The independence of the sub-Gaussian entries of these matrices and the knowledge of their exact distribution play an important role in their analyses. Using properties of independent sub-Gaussian random variables, these matrices are demonstrated to be JLTs, and their smallest nontrivial singular values and largest singular values are estimated nonasymptotically using a technique from geometric functional analysis. As the dimensions of the matrix grow to infinity, these singular values are proved to converge almost surely to fixed quantities (by using the universal Bai–Yin law) and in distribution to the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble Tracy–Widom law after proper rescalings. Understanding the behaviors of extreme singular values is important in general because they are often used to define a measure of stability of matrix algorithms. For example, JLTs were recently used in derivative-free optimization algorithmic frameworks to select random subspaces in which are constructed random models or poll directions to achieve scalability, and hence estimating their smallest singular value in particular helps determine the dimension of these subspaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Agnostic Approach to Building Empirical Type Ia Supernova Light Curves: Evidence for Intrinsic Chromatic Flux Variation Using Nearby Supernova Factory Data

We present a new empirical Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) model with three chromatic flux variation templates: one phase dependent and two phase independent. No underlying dust extinction model or patterns of intrinsic variability are assumed. Implemented with Stan and trained using spectrally binned Nearby Supernova Factory spectrophotometry, we examine this model's 2D, phase-independent flux variation space using two motivated basis representations. In both, the first phase-independent template captures variation that appears dust-like, while the second captures a combination of effectively intrinsic variability and second-order dust-like effects. We find that ≈13% of the modeled phase-independent flux variance is not dust-like. Previous empirical SN Ia models either assume an effective dust extinction recipe in their architecture, or only allow for a single mode of phase-independent variation. The presented results demonstrate such an approach may be insufficient, because it could "leak" noticeable intrinsic variation into phase-independent templates.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structural and mechanistic insights into protective non-neutralizing antibodies targeting Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus nucleocapsid protein

Abstract Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne virus endemic to Africa, Asia, and expanding regions within Europe. With mortality rates approaching 40%, rising incidence, and no currently approved countermeasures, CCHFV is recognized as a priority public health threat. CCHFV nucleocapsid protein (NP) has long been a key target for diagnostics. Recently, NP-specific humoral responses have also been correlated with protection conferred by protective vaccines candidates. Additionally, the first non-neutralizing monoclonal antibody (mAb) 9D5 demonstrated protective efficacy against CCHFV challenge, underscoring NP as a viable antiviral target. Here, nine anti-NP mAb were utilized to identify four antigenic sites on NP as well as localize these sites to the head or stalk domains. These mAb also revealed variable levels of in vivo protection, independent from whether the epitope site is located in the head or stalk regions. Additionally, three X-ray crystallography structures were obtained that included CCHFV NP from strain Afg09-2990 in complex with the most potent mAb (9D5). This, along with additional structures of two unbound NPs, revealed structural elements critical for mAb-9D5 broad-spectrum protective characteristics. These findings provide a path towards the rapid identification of broadly protective anti-NP mAb countermeasures.

Moresco, Vanessa↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Addressing challenges for operating electrochemical solar fuels technologies under variable and diurnal conditions

The outdoor operation of electrochemical solar fuels devices must contend with challenges presented by the cycles of solar irradiance, temperature, and other meteorological factors. Herein, we discuss challenges associated with these fluctuations presented over three timescales, including the effects of diurnal cycling over the course of many days, a single diurnal cycle over the course of hours, and meteorological phenomena that cause fluctuations on the order of seconds to minutes. We also highlight both reaction-independent and reaction-specific effects of variable conditions for the hydrogen evolution reaction and CO 2 reduction reaction. We identify key areas of research for advancing the outdoor operation of solar fuels technology and highlight the need for metrics and benchmarks to enable the comparison of diurnal studies across systems and geographical locations.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Split Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) System Building Energy Simulations Using Performance Maps

Multi-split variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems are highly energy-efficient HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) technologies that connect a single outdoor unit to multiple independent indoor terminal units using a common refrigerant circuit and a variable-speed compressor. Building energy simulations that incorporate VRF systems help model their unique operational characteristics and predict energy consumption in specific building designs. Traditionally, EnergyPlus models these systems by employing multiple sets of performance curves to characterize both individual terminal units and the outdoor unit. However, producing these curves is labor intensive and error prone, and they often do not capture all the key input and output variables. This paper introduces a novel approach that uses multi-dimensional performance maps to model VRF systems in building environments for space cooling. In this approach, performance maps are developed at the component level—separately for the outdoor unit and for each indoor terminal. The new modeling method is validated within EnergyPlus via a Python plug-in that contains a simple solver loop to coordinate the component-level, indoor, and outdoor unit maps. Furthermore, because performance maps can span more variables than traditional performance curves, they offer the opportunity to implement advanced controls, such as enhanced dehumidification and compressor modulation. A VRF air conditioner’s hardware system was modeled using the DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model, which was automated to produce extensive performance maps for both the indoor and outdoor units.

Shen, Bo [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000336600393)↗

DOE OSTI2026

PV Operations Software Transparency: A PVMAC Industry Snapshot

The rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) deployment has increased reliance on software platforms for monitoring, workflow automation, diagnostics, and performance analytics. As these tools play a central role in asset management and operations and maintenance (O&M), greater transparency in methodologies, data handling, and validation practices benefits the broader PV ecosystem. To better understand current practices and identify opportunities for improved clarity and interoperability, 24 software providers contributed detailed responses through the PV O&M Analytics Collaborative (PVMAC) initiative, the first structured questionnaire of its kind in the industry, covering onboarding, interoperability, data quality, diagnostics, AI/ML, and other operational categories. These providers represent over 1.1 TW of solar assets under management. The analysis shows broad adoption of digital twins, AI/ML, and API integrations, but also highlights challenges in onboarding processes, inconsistent definitions and methodologies, variability in key performance indicator (KPI) calculations, and limited independent validation. Greater standardization, clearer documentation, and stronger validation frameworks could improve transparency, comparability, and trust across PV operations software platforms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-independent measurement of the Higgs boson associated production with two jets and decaying to a pair of W bosons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A model-independent measurement of the differential production cross section of the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of W bosons, with a final state including two jets produced in association, is presented. In the analysis, events are selected in which the decay products of the two W bosons consist of an electron, a muon, and missing transverse momentum. The model independence of the measurement is maximized by employing a discriminating variable, developed through machine learning, that is agnostic to the signal hypothesis. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV collected with the CMS detector from 2016–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb −1 . The production cross section is measured as a function of the difference in azimuthal angle between the two jets. The differential cross section measurements are used to constrain Higgs boson couplings within the standard model effective field theory framework.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Scales in Black Hole Accretion and Feedback: Relativistic Jet Linking the Horizon to the Host Galaxy

Simulating black hole (BH) accretion and feedback from the BH horizon to galactic scales is extremely challenging, as it involves a vast range of scales. Recently, our multizone method has successfully achieved global dynamical steady states of hot accretion flows in 3D general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations by tracking the bidirectional interaction between a nonspinning BH and its host galaxy. In this paper, we present technical improvements to the method and apply it to spin a * = 0.9 BHs, which power relativistic jets. We first test the new multizone setup with a smaller Bondi radius, R B ≈ 400 r g , where r g is the gravitational radius. The strongly magnetized accretion launches a relativistic jet with an intermediate feedback efficiency η ∼ 30%, in between that of a prograde (η ∼ 100%) and retrograde (η ∼ 10%) torus. Interestingly, both prograde and retrograde simulations also eventually converge to the same intermediate efficiency when evolved long enough, as accumulated magnetic fields remove gas rotation. We then extend strongly magnetized simulations to larger Bondi radii, R B ≈ 2 × 10 3 , 2 × 10 4 , 2 × 10 5 r g . We find that the BH accretion rate $\dot{M}$ is suppressed with respect to the Bondi rate as $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}$ as $\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}} ∝ R_{\textrm{B}}^{-1/2}$. However, despite some variability, the time-averaged feedback efficiency remains at η ∼ 30%, independent of R B . This suggests that BH feedback efficiency in hot accretion flows is mainly governed by the BH spin (a * ) rather than by the galactic properties (R B ). From these first-principles simulations, we provide a feedback subgrid prescription for cosmological simulations: $\dot{E}_{\textrm{fb}} = 2$ x $10^{-3}[R_{\textrm{B}}/(2$ x $10^5 r_g)]^{-1/2}$ $\dot{M}_{\textrm{B}}c^2$ for BH spin a * = 0.9.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗