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At least 37 records · Page 2

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY

Optimal Uses of Magnetic Fields for Indirect-Drive Inertial Fusion

This project explored how applied magnetic fields can improve inertial confinement fusion (ICF), specifically the indirect-drive approach that uses a hohlraum. This has been proposed for several decades as potentially beneficial, due to thermal insulation (reduced losses) from the imploded hotspot. We performed the most advanced radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic modeling to date of magnetized ICF designs in the ignition regime. We found that adding technologically feasible fields up to 60 – 70 Tesla could increase the fusion yield of current igniting designs for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) by up to 8x. Also, simulations show that in certain cases relatively small fields of 3 – 5 Tesla could double the yield, and be implemented at much lower cost. Early work on re-optimizing NIF designs with magnetic fields, namely by using a thicker ablator with more mass remaining, could increase the yield of a sub-ignition target by 18x and bring it into the ignition regime. A separate benefit of magnetization besides reduced thermal loss is reduced hydrodynamic instability. Modeling work under this project shows this could be significant, though early experiments at NIF and the Omega Laser proved inconclusive. We designed and proposed an improved NIF experiment on magnetized mix, based on a large-amplitude imposed perturbation. The project also supported basic physics research into magnetized laser-plasma interactions, namely cross-beam energy transfer, both with experiments at Omega and theory / modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding

Development of an ab initio learned model of electron deposition range in deuterium-tritium plasmas through time-dependent density functional theory calculations and machine learning

Accurate hydrodynamic modeling for laser-direct-drive (LDD) inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) relies on precise calculations of the electron thermal conduction in all target materials. The nonlocal stopping range of electrons in ICF plasmas directly influences thermal conduction; yet, no first principles model exists for the electron mean free path in the conduction-zone regime. This work utilized time-dependent stochastic density-functional theory (TD-sDFT) to calculate the electron stopping power in deuterium-tritium (DT) plasmas at (ρ, T) conditions relevant to the conduction zone and the compressed shell in ICF. Using a combination of our TD-sDFT data and already established analytical models, we developed and trained an artificial neural network to create a global model for the nonlocal electron deposition range, λ E . We compared our machine-learning (ML) based model for λ E to the currently-used modified-Lee-More model in LDD radiation-hydrodynamic codes, such as lilac, and saw an overall decrease in the deposition range. To understand the effects of λ E on LDD ICF implosion dynamics, we implemented the ML-based model into lilac; specifically, we looked at designs consistent with a current experiment on the OMEGA laser and for a newly designed LDD-ICF target for the future OMEGA-Next facility. In both cases, we saw an overall drop in predicted ablation pressure, peak areal density, and neutron yield due to the reduced thermal conduction (smaller λ E ) in DT plasmas. Comparisons with the experiment on OMEGA are also made.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters

Ponderosa pine hydraulic stress predicts more extreme wildfire behavior under future conditions in Bandelier National Monument, New Mexico

Background Live fuel moisture contributes to wildfire spread and reflects plant stress and physiological traits. The anticipated change in live fuel moisture under future conditions is likely non-linear, owing to physiological plant thresholds in water hydraulics. We constructed a mechanistic model of live fuel moisture’s response to water stress to understand the impact of future climate on live fuel moisture. We first gathered data on plant physiology and live fuel moisture for Pinus ponderosa at Bandelier National Monument, NM, USA, and modeled their relationship. We then parameterized a mechanistic plant hydrodynamics model (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate changes in plant stress and a statistical model to simulate the resulting impact on live fuel moisture. We then simulated FATES-HYDRO under future climate anomalies (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5: 2080–2100) to understand the change in plant stress and estimate its impact on live fuel moisture. Results We found that the number of days below crucial thresholds of live fuel moisture (100% and 79%) increased from contemporary levels (< 100%: 72 days, < 79%: 1.4 days) under SSP2-4.5 (< 100%: 185 days, < 79%: 10.2 day) and increased exponentially under SSP5-8.5 (< 100%: 215 days, < 79%: 65 days). We found that gross primary productivity decreased under both future climate scenarios (contemporary: 336 g C m −2 , SSP2-4.5: 203 g C m −2 , SSP5-8.5: 243 g C m −2 ); however, spring productivity increased under SSP5-8.5, potentially altering fuel loading. We additionally see a potentially lethal loss of conductivity in hydraulic P. ponderosa under SSP5-8.5. Conclusions The overall increase in plant water stress (as represented by loss of hydraulic conductivity and leaf water potential) and lower live fuel moisture appear to be driven by reduced precipitation during late summer monsoons typical of the region, extending the fire season later in the year. We predict increasing variability in the P. ponderosa wildfire regime under both climate projections driven by changing productivity, rising mortality, and an overall decrease in live fuel moisture.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Bayesian Optimization for Anything (BOA): An open-source framework for accessible, user-friendly Bayesian optimization

We introduce Bayesian Optimization for Anything (BOA), a high-level Bayesian Optimization (BO) framework and model wrapping toolkit, which presents a novel approach to simplifying BO, with the goal of making it more accessible and user-friendly, particularly for those with limited expertise in the field. BOA addresses common barriers in implementing BO, focusing on ease of use, reducing the need for deep domain knowledge, and cutting down on extensive coding requirements. A notable feature of BOA is its language-agnostic architecture, which facilitates broader application in various fields and to a wider audience. We showcase BOA's application through three examples: a high-dimensional optimization with parameters of the SWAT+ watershed model, a highly parallelized optimization of this intrinsically non-parallel model, and a multi-objective optimization of the FETCH Tree-Crown Hydrodynamics model. Furthermore, these test cases illustrate BOA's effectiveness in addressing complex optimization challenges in diverse scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame,

Toward electron temperature profiles in hot-dense plasmas from x-ray spectral ensembles

High repetition rate laser systems enable new strategies for diagnosing plasma behavior with large datasets. Here, we define an ensemble technique that relies on randomized targeting of x-ray tracer micro-stripes. On each shot, a high-intensity laser pulse is focused on a solid target with Ti tracer stripes embedded in an Al foil, randomly targeting a micro-stripe, a portion of a stripe, or a gap between stripes. High-resolution, time-integrated x-ray spectrometers capture line emission from the portion of the micro-stripe that is heated to sufficiently high electron temperatures. Accumulation of many such cases is used to construct ensemble distributions of x-ray line intensities that encompass all relative offsets of the laser focus to the micro-stripe centers. Synthetic intensity distributions are likewise generated using collisional-radiative modeling. Bayesian fitting of modeled to measured intensity distributions establishes the most likely radial temperature profiles, enabling comparison to hydrodynamic models and calling into question the cylindrical symmetry of these micro-stripe-embedded systems. Ensemble techniques have significant potential for high-energy-density plasma diagnostics, especially with the advent of high repetition rate experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Modeling and Verification of Lumped-Parameter, Multibody Structural Dynamics for Offshore Wind Turbines

This paper presents the modeling and verification of multibody structural dynamics for offshore wind turbines. The flexible tower and support structure of a monopile-based offshore wind turbine are modeled using an acausal, lumped-parameter, multibody approach that incorporates structural flexibility, soil-structure interaction, and hydrodynamic models. Simulation results are benchmarked against alternative modeling approaches, demonstrating the model's ability to accurately capture both static and dynamic behaviors under various wind and wave conditions while maintaining computational efficiency. This work provides a valuable tool for analyzing key structural characteristics of wind turbines, including eigenfrequencies, mode shapes, damping, and internal forces.

17 WIND ENERGY

Numerical simulation of compressible fluid-dynamics in the chamber of inertial fusion energy systems

Here, this paper aims to establish new and innovative modeling capabilities for analyzing chambers in Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) systems. IFE is emerging as a promising method to achieve fusion power production, but several challenges must be overcome to develop an IFE pilot plant or deploy commercial IFE systems. These challenges are both theoretical and technical, encompassing a deeper understanding of the underlying physical phenomena and the development of new technologies and materials. One of the needs is to develop mathematical models to describe IFE systems and numerical tools to simulate them. This paper contributes to this endeavor by presenting a new OpenFOAM solver for IFE systems, focusing on gas dynamics in their chambers. The analysis and development of chamber designs will play a significant role in the transition from single-shot experiments to high-repetition rates, as there is a need to protect the chamber walls from the intense radiation fields produced by fusion reactions. A promising design option, normally referred to as thick wall chamber design, consists in using lithium or molten salt jet arrays within the chamber. A critical phenomenon is the venting of high-pressure gases from the center to the external part of the chamber, passing through the blanket array. This process involves the propagation and attenuation of strong pressure waves, requiring suitable modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics. The solver proposed in this work implements a multi-material hydrodynamics model tailored to accurately describe the non-linear propagation of pressure waves while avoiding numerical oscillation issues typical of high-velocity compressible simulation. This solver is verified against numerical test cases, validated against experimental data, and applied to the analysis of the High-Yield Lithium-Injection Fusion-Energy (HYLIFE-I) concept. The relevance of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it contributes to developing and testing modeling approaches for compressible fluid-dynamics phenomena, with specific focus on the new and unexplored topic of IFE thick-liquid-wall blanket modeling. Secondly, it marks one of the first applications of the OpenFOAM library in the research field of IFE systems. Finally, the investigated problem is of practical interest for IFE developers, as it provides useful indications about relevant phenomena in pressure wave propagation in the chamber of these systems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

An efficient hybrid downscaling framework to estimate high-resolution river hydrodynamics

Flow depth and velocity are the most important hydrodynamic variables that govern various river functions, including water resources, navigation, sediment transport, and biogeochemical cycling. Existing high-resolution flow depth simulations rely on either computationally expensive river hydrodynamic models (RHMs) or data-driven models with formidable training costs, whereas data-driven modeling of flow velocity has rarely been explored. Here, using the hybrid Low-fidelity, Spatial analysis, and Gaussian process learning (LSG) model, we developed a downscaling approach to construct high-resolution flow depth and velocity from a two-dimensional (2-D) RHM simulation at coarse resolution. The LSG models were trained and tested in an urban watershed in Houston using two different hurricane-driven flood events. The high-resolution (as fine as 30 m resolution) and low-resolution (mostly 1000 m resolution) meshes include 664 724 and 14 536 grid cells, respectively. The results showed that through downscaling, the simulation errors were reduced to less than one-fourth and one-third of the errors of the low-resolution 2-D RHM for flow depth and velocity, respectively. Our analysis further revealed that the dominant uncertainty sources of the downscaled hydrodynamics are different, with flow velocity dominated by the dimensionality reduction error, which we reduced by using a regionalized training procedure. The downscaling approach achieves an 84-fold acceleration in computational time compared to the high-resolution 2-D RHM, making high-fidelity ensemble flood modeling feasible. More importantly, the developed method provides an opportunity to couple large-scale hydrodynamical processes with local physical, chemical, and biological processes in river models.

Tan, Zeli [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (

Resource Assessment Study of Long Island Sound Tidal Resource in New York State Waters Based on Numerical Modeling (Abstract)

To refine the understanding of the tidal energy resource in Long Island Sound (LIS), Verdant Power and PNNL will collaborate to conduct a numerical modeling campaign in accordance with a Stage 2 resource assessment according to IEC TC 62600-201. The work will develop a high resolution tidal hydrodynamic model using FVCOM in LIS, validate the model using NOAA C-MIST ADCP data, and conduct a Stage 2 array layout design study at selected hotspots within the project area. The teams will also model tidal energy extraction using the FVCOMTEC module at the hotspot sites, based on specific device technologies provided by Verdant Power. Model results from this study will inform additional resource assessment activities such as in situ water velocity measurements for further model validation and elucidate understanding of other key sites in Long Island Sound for commercial-scale tidal energy deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Supercooled Goldstone Bosons at the QCD Chiral Phase Transition

We discuss a universal nonequilibrium enhancement of long-wavelength Goldstone bosons induced by quenches to the broken phase in Model G—the dynamical universality class of an 𝑂⁡(4) antiferromagnet and the chiral phase transition in QCD. Scaling arguments for the coarsening dynamics describing the formation of the chiral condensate predict a parametric enhancement in the infrared spectra of Goldstone bosons, a prediction confirmed by stochastic simulations of the transition. The details of the enhancement are determined by the nonlinear dynamics of a superfluid effective theory, which is a limit of Model G reflecting the broken 𝑂⁡(4) symmetry. Our results translate to a parametric enhancement of low-momentum pions in heavy-ion collisions at the LHC, which are underpredicted in current hydrodynamic models without critical dynamics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea