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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Reconstruction of Global Hydroclimate and Dynamical Variables Over the Common Era

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere?ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Nino indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Natural hazards↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extreme hydroclimates amplify the biophysical effects of advanced green-up in temperate China

Vegetation phenology modulates climate by altering energy and water exchange between the land and atmosphere. However, how extreme hydroclimatic conditions modify these phenology-climate feedbacks is still poorly understood. Here, in this study, we used a land–atmosphere-coupled Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the impacts of advanced green-up on air temperature under different hydroclimate conditions across temperate China and to Mechanistic analysis elucidate the underlying biophysical mechanisms. By imposing a 14-day earlier green-up in line with recent satellite observations, we found that under mean climate conditions, an earlier leaf-out induces immediate surface cooling of 0.14 °C during green-up and a lagging 0.02 °C warming during senescence averaged for temperate China. Extremely humid conditions amplify the cooling effects to 0.18 °C during green-up, extending this cooling into the senescence period. Conversely, under extremely arid conditions, earlier green-up cools air temperature by 0.09 °C, and amplified senescence warming to 0.16 °C. Mechanism analysis revealed that evapotranspiration-dominated non-radiative processes drive immediate cooling during green-up while radiation and circulation process dominates the delayed but opposite warming/cooling effects during senescence in extremely arid/humid hydroclimates. Given the projected continuation of warming trends and increased frequency of extreme climatic events, it is imperative to incorporate the biophysical effects of vegetation phenology into local climate adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate and hydraulic traits interact to set thresholds for liana viability

Lianas, or woody vines, and trees dominate the canopy of tropical forests and comprise the majority of tropical aboveground carbon storage. These growth forms respond differently to contemporary variation in climate and resource availability, but their responses to future climate change are poorly understood because there are very few predictive ecosystem models representing lianas. We compile a database of liana functional traits (846 species) and use it to parameterize a mechanistic model of liana-tree competition. The substantial difference between liana and tree hydraulic conductivity represents a critical source of inter-growth form variation. Here, we show that lianas are many times more sensitive to drying atmospheric conditions than trees as a result of this trait difference. Further, we use our competition model and projections of tropical hydroclimate based on Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 to show that lianas are more susceptible to reaching a hydraulic threshold for viability by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Dichotomy of Wet and Dry Trends Over India by Aerosol Indirect Effects in CMIP5 Models

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions, also known as aerosol indirect effect (AIE), substantially impact rainfall frequency and intensity. Here, we analyze NEX‐GDDP, a multimodel ensemble of high‐resolution (0.25°) historical simulations and future projections statistically downscaled from 21 CMIP5 models, to quantify the importance of AIE on extreme climate indices, specifically consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The 21 NEX‐GDDP CMIP5 models are classified into models with reliable (REM) and unreliable (UREM) monsoon climate simulated over India based on their simulations of the climate indices. The REM group is further decomposed based on whether the models represent only the direct (REM ADE ) or the direct and indirect (REM ALL ) aerosol effects. Compared to REM ADE , including all aerosol effects significantly improves the model skills in simulating the observed historical trends of all three climate indices over India. Specifically, AIE enhances dry days and reduces wet days in India in the historical period, consistent with the observed changes. However, by the middle and end of the 21st century, there is a relative decrease in dry days and an increase in wet days and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the REM ALL simulated future CWD and CDD changes are mostly opposite to those in REM ADE , indicating the substantial role of AIE in the future projection of dry and wet climates. These findings underscore the crucial role of AIE in future projections of the Indian hydroclimate and motivate efforts to accurately represent AIE in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Is Bias Correction in Dynamical Downscaling Defensible?

Localized projections of 21st‐century hydroclimate variables obtained from downscaling Global Climate Model (GCM) output are central to informing regional impact assessments and infrastructure planning. Regional GCM biases can be significant and, for dynamical downscaling, can be addressed either before (a priori) or after (a posteriori) downscaling. However, a priori bias correction (APBC) has generally unexplored effects on climate change signals. Here we analyze dynamically downscaled solutions of CMIP6 GCMs over the Western U.S., with and without APBC, and quantify APBC's impact on climate change signals relative to other irreducible uncertainty sources. For temperature and precipitation, the uncertainty introduced by APBC is negligible compared to that arising from GCM choice or internal variability. Furthermore, APBC greatly reduces regional models' unrealistically high snow‐water‐equivalent (SWE) biases that result directly from GCM errors. We leverage this finding to encourage the dynamical downscaling community to adopt APBC as a standard operating procedure.

Risser, Mark D.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DOE Early Career Award # DE-SC0012152: Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate (Final Report)

This summarizes technical highlights from the DOE Early Career Project entitled “Understanding the Roles of Cloud Microphysics and Land Surface Coupling Feedbacks in Multi-Scale Predictions of Central US Summer Hydroclimate” led by PI Mike Pritchard at the University of California. The project’s original aims were to investigate trade-offs of cloud superparameterization such as the effects of microphysical assumptions on mesoscale convective systems (Section I) and the representation of land-atmosphere coupling under explicit convection (Section II). Under the same broader theme of water cycle dynamics, superparameterization, and land interaction, the project evolved to further investigate the climate dynamics of irrigation, vegetation and streamflow (Section III), the dynamics of the Madden- Julian Oscillation (Section IV), as well as the use of modern machine learning to replace traditional sub grid approaches for climate simulation (Section V). Twenty peer-reviewed journal publications were produced as a result of this project (Section VI).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatial pattern of lake evaporation increases under global warming linked to regional hydroclimate change

Abstract Lakes are critical natural resources that are vulnerable to climate change. In a warmer climate, lake evaporation is projected to increase globally, but with substantial variation between regions. Here, based on ensemble projections of climate and lake models and an attribution method, we show that future lake evaporation increase is strongly modulated by regional hydroclimate change. Specifically, a drying hydroclimate will amplify evaporation increase by enlarging surface vapor pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection. Future lake evaporation increase is amplified in tropical America, the Mediterranean and Southeast China with drier future hydroclimates, and dampened in high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau with wetter future hydroclimates. Such spatially coupled changes in lake evaporation and hydroclimate have important implications on regional lake water balance and volume change, which can aggravate water scarcity and flood risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in African easterly wave activity due to climate change

African easterly waves significantly influence regional hydroclimate, making it crucial to understand how global warming will impact their activity. Here, we investigate future changes in wave activity and assess the underlying mechanisms using an ensemble of Earth system models. We find a robust increase in wave activity over the Sahel–Sahara region by the end of the 21st century under two emission scenarios. This intensification is linked to increased baroclinicity associated with a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinea Coast and the Sahara. Our results also indicate that low-level warming enhances the waves by reinforcing monsoon flow, leading to increased convergence and vertical motion along the intertropical discontinuity. These energetic alterations significantly modify the conditions that currently produce these waves. Overall, our findings suggest that changes in wave activity could impact the transport of Saharan dust and mesoscale convective activity over the Sahel.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust future intensification of winter precipitation over the United States

We investigate 21st-century hydroclimate changes over the United States (US) during winter and the sources of projection uncertainty under three emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) using CMIP6 models. Our study reveals a robust intensification of winter precipitation across the US, except in the Southern Great Plains, where changes are very small. By the end of the 21st century, winter precipitation is projected to increase by about 2–5% K -1 over most of the US. The frequency of very wet winters is also expected to increase, with 6–7 out of 30 winters exceeding the very wet threshold under the different scenarios. Our results suggest that the enhancement of future winter precipitation is modulated largely by coupled dynamic and thermodynamic responses, though partly offset by thermodynamic responses. Overall, our results highlight a high likelihood of increasing impacts from winter precipitation due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonally Dependent Future Changes in the U.S. Midwest Hydroclimate and Extremes

This study investigates the responses of the hydroclimate and extremes in the U.S. Midwest to global warming, based on ensemble projections of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project and the multimodel initial-condition large-ensemble simulations. The precipitation response features a seasonally dependent change with increased precipitation in April–May but reduced precipitation in July–August. In this work, the late-spring wetting is attributed to the enhanced low-level moisture-transporting southerlies, which are induced by regional sea level pressure anomalies linked to the poleward shift of the North American westerly jet (NAWJ). The late-summer drying is attributed to the weakened storm track, which is also linked to the poleward NAWJ shift. The seasonally dependent future changes of the Midwest precipitation are analogous to its climatological seasonal progression, which increases over late spring as the NAWJ approaches the Midwest and decreases over late summer as the NAWJ migrates away. In response to the mean precipitation changes, extremely wet late springs (April–May precipitation above the 99th percentile of the historical period) and extremely dry late summers (below the 1st percentile) will occur much more frequently, implying increased late-spring floods and late-summer droughts. Future warming in the Midwest is amplified in late summer due to the reduced precipitation. With amplified background warming and increased occurrence, future late-summer droughts will be more devastating. Our results highlight that, under a time-invariant poleward jet shift, opposite precipitation changes arise before and after the peak rainy month, leading to substantial increases in the subseasonal extremes. The severity of such climate impacts is obscured in projections of the rainy-season mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project, Phase I (LS4P-I): organization and experimental design

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction, especially the prediction of extreme hydroclimate events such as droughts and floods, is not only scientifically challenging, but also has substantial societal impacts. Motivated by preliminary studies, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)/Global Atmospheric System Study (GASS) has launched a new initiative called “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) as the first international grass-roots effort to introduce spring land surface temperature (LST)/subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies over high mountain areas as a crucial factor that can lead to significant improvement in precipitation prediction through the remote effects of land–atmosphere interactions. LS4P focuses on process understanding and predictability, and hence it is different from, and complements, other international projects that focus on the operational S2S prediction. More than 40 groups worldwide have participated in this effort, including 21 Earth system models, 9 regional climate models, and 7 data groups.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The productivity of perennial crops miscanthus and switchgrass is more resistant to vapor pressure deficit stress than maize

Rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D) with warming is an increasingly important driver of crop productivity loss, yet the relative sensitivity of conventional seed crops and alternative perennial crops remains poorly resolved. In this study, we combined a 9-year eddy covariance carbon flux record (2008 – 2016) with 600+ midday leaf water potential (ψ L ) measurements (2024 – 2025) from adjacent maize (Zea mays), miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) plots to: (1) quantify the limitations of elevated D on crop-specific productivity and (2) evaluate how these responses vary as a function of soil moisture (Θ) status. We found that maize strictly regulated ψ L and its gross primary productivity (GPP) was strongly reduced by increasing D. In contrast, miscanthus and switchgrass allowed larger ψ L declines and sustained higher GPP under similar moisture constraints. D exerted a larger limitation on maize GPP than Θ, but D-driven declines were less severe when accompanied by high Θ. GPP sensitivity to D was also influenced by Θ for miscanthus and switchgrass, but the buffering effect was stronger compared to maize. Specifically, high D paired with high Θ were the most productive conditions for the perennials, reflecting temperature-driven gains in photosynthetic efficiency when evaporative stress was mitigated by sufficient soil water supply. Overall, miscanthus and switchgrass displayed greater resistance to atmospheric drought and more stable GPP across hydroclimate variability than maize. These findings highlight that maize is more vulnerable to future projections of rising D than miscanthus or switchgrass.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2022

The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the research completed during the project entitled "The weathered bedrock vadose zone: A hidden control on water availability in the western United States" (Award: DE-SC0018039). The report covers work completed between 9/15/17 and 9/14/20. The objective of the exploratory project work was to evaluate the overarching hypothesis that the subsurface underlying actively eroding landscapes is systematically structured as a result of a balance between weathering and erosion and that this structure leads to dynamic moisture storage within weathered rock. To accomplish project objectives, we characterized hillslope weathering profile structure and conducted subsurface moisture monitoring across four study sites with comparable bedrock types but differing erosion rate and hydroclimate: The Angelo Coast Range Reserve (ACRR), Sagehorn-Russell Ranch (SRR), Antelope Valley Ranch (AVR), and the LBNL Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). New characterization and monitoring infrastructure at the AVR and SFA sites was established through this project and enables long-term monitoring of hydrologic and carbon fluxes at the sites for comparison with long-term monitoring in other sites. Deep drilling, downhole logging, and characterization of chemistry and porosity of rock recovered from drilling reveals two weathering fronts across the sites. A shallower front is marked by the extent of pervasive fracturing and oxidation of pyrite and organic carbon. A deeper weathering front is marked by the appearance of open fractures and discoloration. At the AVR site, multiple ridge tops of different hillslope length were investigated to establish the relationship between the weathering front and topography. Drilling reveals that the fraction of the hillslope relief that is weathered scales with hillslope length, consistent with the theoretical framework that guided the project relating groundwater drainage with landscape evolution. With the establishment of new boreholes, we have documented significant water storage in weathered bedrock using low-field borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) across all four sites. In the upper 4 m of bedrock, the average water contents at ACRR, AVR, SRR, and SFA are approximately 25%, 16%, 25%, 23% respectively. At the ACRR site, where long-term monitoring via neutron probe surveys and time-domain transmission sensors are available, we have demonstrated that NMR reliably records moisture content and importantly, moisture content dynamics in weathered bedrock. Across all sites, our NMR monitoring has also revealed that a considerable fraction of the water storage occurs in fractures or pores that are significantly larger than the fine-grained bedrock matrix of the parent rock. To identify the proportion of water storage occurring in fractures and large pores, we analyzed the NMR signal by evaluating both the sum of echoes and an inversion of the NMR signal for a distribution of T2 relaxation times. Both methods reveal that at least 20% of the water storage occurs in fractures and larger pores across all sites. To constrain the interpretation of the in-situ field-scale NMR measurements, we compare the NMR response in the field to independent pore-structure information obtained via helium pycnometry. Results support the inference that dynamic seasonal water storage is dominantly restricted to the fracture network, which can reach 7% of the total volume. This dynamic range in water content is comparable to that of some soils, underscoring the need to understand how this region of the Earth System is structured, and functions as a hydrologic reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗