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34 records · Page 2

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Success Path Method: Introduction to the Success Path Method Software Tool©

As part of its commitment to advancing safety and reliability assessment methodologies, Argonne National Laboratory pioneered the use of an evaluation method called the Success Path Method (SPM) to improve risk management for offshore oil and gas operations. The development of the SPM at Argonne has been driven by the need to improve existing risk assessment methodologies by focusing on the steps necessary for success rather than failure modes alone. This is particularly important for industrial environments like offshore facilities that perform multiple functions under a continuously evolving set of operational conditions – such as water depth and temperature, currents, and weather conditions. In these dynamic environments, the traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) approach is far too complex as it focuses on what can go wrong – which comprises an infinite failure space that must be fully explored and understood. By shifting the focus to a finite space of success paths, the SPM enables operators and decision makers to prioritize a manageable number of steps that must go right to ensure success. Building on its five decades of experience in safety assessments for the nuclear industry, Argonne made major adaptations to existing risk assessment methods utilizing features similar to fault trees that are traditionally used in PRA to map all pathways in which the system can malfunction. In contrast, SPM identifies the components and processes that must function correctly to achieve specific outcomes – such as preventing the uncontrolled release of hydrocarbons during drilling operations. The SPM framework integrates equipment, procedures, software, processes, and human actions to ensure that physical barriers meet critical safety functions in dynamic operational conditions. This approach helps identify failure modes and improve operational risk management by narrowing the focus to key success elements, which in turn reduces uncertainty and helps users understand, manage, and respond to failures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Applications of Nickelate perovskites for neuromorphic computing from electronic structure and Machine Learning

While the limit of Moore's law is presently being reached with current microelectronic technologies, we need to develop new paradigms that overcome this limitation. In that respect, neuromorphic computing is a concept that emulates the neural behavior and response of the human brain, and it has been recognized as a promising alternative approach. In this research project, we will perform multi-fidelity scale bridging to explore the potential use of materials with metal to insulator transition for neuromorphic applications. In particular, rare earth nickelates are promising for such purposes, as the transition in these materials is quite sensitive to a broad set of different external stimuli. Our multi-fidelity approach will bridge the high-fidelity electronic structure calculations with classical potentials. We will bridge dynamical mean field theory with a classical atomistic representation via a deep learning force field. The neural network is trained with energies, charges, and forces obtained by accurate electronic structure theories based on Dynamical Mean Field Theory. The configurational space is generated from known crystal phases, ab initio molecular dynamics with exchange-correlation functionals corrected with the Hubbard model, disordered phases with different concentrations of oxygen vacancies, and nonsymmetrical positions and induced strain by grain interfaces or contact with a substrate. Strategies to train the model with a reduced number of training examples are obtained from active learning methods, and new structures for improving the learning process are generated by using machine learning autoencoders. This classical potential will be validated through a diversity of electronic structure methods and represents an important step to combine the flexibility and accuracy of first-principles with the speed of classical potentials. The generated multi-fidelity surrogate model will be used to understand the role of strain, oxygen vacancies, proton doping, the variation of the crystal phase, substrate effects, vibrational effects as the octahedral rotation, grain boundaries and defect effects on the response of a Metal to Insulator Transition (MIT) in correlated materials. Long time and large-scale simulations will help understand the role of different stimuli to control the hysteresis of the MIT, as it has been experimentally suggested. Selected configurations will be analyzed with higher-level theories to provide an accurate electronic description and to study how the orbitals and charges are rearranged under different conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Statistical Design of Experiments Enables Rapid Exploration of Perfluorobutane Sulfonate Degradation

The phase-out of long-chain PFAS has led to the proliferation of highly recalcitrant short-chain analogs, and mineralization technologies for these short-chain PFAS are needed to mitigate their deleterious effects on environmental and human health. In this study, we utilize a statistical design of experiments, specifically, response surface methodology, to rapidly evaluate the electrochemical degradation of the short-chain PFAS, perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS). We evaluate the impacts of the three primary electrochemical parameters (concentration of PFBS, concentration of supporting electrolyte, and applied current) over multiple orders of magnitude on the three primary reaction outcomes of electrochemical PFBS degradation (incomplete PFBS decomposition, complete PFBS mineralization as fluorine, and anodic energy consumption). Our results correspond with literature and clearly identify the well-known tradeoff between energy consumption and complete mineralization. Intriguingly, partial PFBS decomposition and energy consumption demonstrate nonlinear dependencies in the current/supporting electrolyte concentration space and the current/PFBS concentration space, respectively. These findings highlight the utility of the response surface methodology model to efficiently interrogate a large parameter space, identifying both common results and less-obvious interactions between electrochemical parameters and their influences on reaction outcomes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SANE: strategic autonomous non-smooth exploration for multiple optima discovery in multi-modal and non-differentiable black-box functions

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and multimodal parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, material structure image spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are black-boxes and time-consuming to evaluate, which resulted in strong interest towards active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO). However, these systems are often noisy which make the black box function severely multi-modal and non-differentiable, where a vanilla BO can get overly focused near a single or faux optimum, deviating from the broader goal of scientific discovery. To address these limitations, here we developed Strategic Autonomous Non-Smooth Exploration (SANE) to facilitate an intelligent Bayesian optimized navigation with a proposed cost-driven probabilistic acquisition function to find multiple global and local optimal regions, avoiding the tendency to becoming trapped in a single optimum. To distinguish between a true and false optimal region due to noisy experimental measurements, a human (domain) knowledge driven dynamic surrogate gate is integrated with SANE. We implemented the gate-SANE into pre-acquired piezoresponse spectroscopy data of a ferroelectric combinatorial library with high noise levels in specific regions, and piezoresponse force microscopy (PFM) hyperspectral data. SANE demonstrated better performance than classical BO to facilitate the exploration of multiple optimal regions and thereby prioritized learning with higher coverage of scientific values in autonomous experiments. Our work showcases the potential application of this method to real-world experiments, where such combined strategic and human intervening approaches can be critical to unlocking new discoveries in autonomous research.

Biswas, Arpan [University of Tennessee, Knoxville,↗

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications (Full Report)

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was developed to address the pressing need for faster, more reliable, and more adaptable scientific discovery. Traditional experimentation is limited by manual labor, long cycle times, and fragmented data streams, which constrain the ability to explore complex chemical and materials design spaces. To overcome these limitations, we created an integrated, modular platform that combines laboratory robotics, diverse measurement instruments, and a central data infrastructure with artificial intelligence–driven decision-making. The system links liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and optical plate readers into a closed loop where experiments are executed automatically, data is analyzed in real time, and subsequent experimental conditions are adaptively chosen to maximize information gain. Over the course of the project, MARS was validated on two primary test cases—spectroscopic metal–ligand binding assays and peptide-directed mineralization—which highlighted the system’s ability to handle uncertainty and variability in experimental measurements. To further demonstrate modularity and extensibility, we also established additional testbeds in electrochemistry for catalyst discovery and electrolyte formulation for advanced batteries. The results show that MARS can reliably conduct autonomous campaigns with minimal human intervention, adapt to distinct scientific domains, and provide a scalable model for future self-driving laboratories. This work establishes new capabilities for modular, uncertainty-aware automation and directly supports the need for advanced, data-driven research platforms capable of accelerating discovery across a wide range of scientific and national security missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating Kinetic Mechanisms of Soot Formation in Plasma Pyrolysis of Methane via Active Learning (Final Technical Report)

Plasma pyrolysis of methane is an effective route for zero-carbon hydrogen production. Yet, soot generated from pyrolysis of hydrocarbons is detrimental to the climate and human health. There is ample experimental and theoretical evidence that suggests polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the molecular precursors to soot particles. The reaction pathways of PAH formation are intricately dependent on a multitude of process parameters, whose kinetic mechanisms are not well-understood in plasma pyrolysis. This project aims to leverage advances in the kinetic modeling of soot formation in combustion, as well as in surrogate modeling and active learning, to systematically investigate the effects of process parameter on the kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis of methane. To this end, we propose to use the PAH formation kinetics model developed by the PPPL/PU group based on the well-established ABF and HACA mechanisms, coupled with low-temperature plasma models. We will develop an active learning (AL) framework based on Bayesian optimization to systematically and data-efficiently explore the complex and multivariable parameter space of plasma pyrolysis in order to quantify the effects of plasma and feed parameters on the ABF and HACA kinetic pathways. AL is the branch of machine learning concerned with systematically querying samples from a system (experimental or computational) to train a data-driven model that maps design parameters to a performance criterion. We will use the data generated via AL to perform global sensitivity analysis, combined with uncertainty quantification, to elucidate the impact of different reaction pathways on minimizing formation of soot precursors. This study will result in an improved understanding of kinetics of PAH formation in plasma pyrolysis and can pave the way for more advanced mechanistic studies (e.g., soot nucleation mechanisms). Additionally, the findings will be useful for establishing practical strategies for increasing the pyrolysis efficiency and producing high-grade carbon for synthesis of nanomaterials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Bacterial community dynamics as a result of growth-yield trade-off and multispecies metabolic interactions toward understanding the gut biofilm niche

Abstract Bacterial communities are ubiquitous, found in natural ecosystems, such as soil, and within living organisms, like the human microbiome. The dynamics of these communities in diverse environments depend on factors such as spatial features of the microbial niche, biochemical kinetics, and interactions among bacteria. Moreover, in many systems, bacterial communities are influenced by multiple physical mechanisms, such as mass transport and detachment forces. One example is gut mucosal communities, where dense, closely packed communities develop under the concurrent influence of nutrient transport from the lumen and fluid-mediated detachment of bacteria. In this study, we model a mucosal niche through a coupled agent-based and finite-volume modeling approach. This methodology enables us to model bacterial interactions affected by nutrient release from various sources while adjusting individual bacterial kinetics. We explored how the dispersion and abundance of bacteria are influenced by biochemical kinetics in different types of metabolic interactions, with a particular focus on the trade-off between growth rate and yield. Our findings demonstrate that in competitive scenarios, higher growth rates result in a larger share of the niche space. In contrast, growth yield plays a critical role in neutralism, commensalism, and mutualism interactions. When bacteria are introduced sequentially, they cause distinct spatiotemporal effects, such as deeper niche colonization in commensalism and mutualism scenarios driven by species intermixing effects, which are enhanced by high growth yields. Moreover, sub-ecosystem interactions dictate the dynamics of three-species communities, sometimes yielding unexpected outcomes. Competitive, fast-growing bacteria demonstrate robust colonization abilities, yet they face challenges in displacing established mutualistic systems. Bacteria that develop a cooperative relationship with existing species typically obtain niche residence, regardless of their growth rates, although higher growth yields significantly enhance their abundance. Our results underscore the importance of bacterial niche dynamics in shaping community properties and succession, highlighting a new approach to manipulating microbial systems.

Microbiology↗

Agentic framework for programmatic crystal structure generation using a fine-tuned worker–supervisor large language model

Platinum group metals (PGMs) underpin many catalytic technologies but face severe supply constraints, motivating the search for alternative materials and computational methods to accelerate discovery. While atomistic simulation tools such as Pymatgen and ASE have streamlined structure manipulation, they require detailed inputs, limiting accessibility for experimentalists and slowing early-stage exploration. Here, in this study, we present an AI-driven agentic framework that orchestrates worker–supervisor large language models (LLMs). The worker translates natural-language prompts of varying abstraction into valid crystallographic structures using a compact LLM fine-tuned with low-rank adaptation on a curated text–code–CIF dataset, emphasizing energy-efficient training. Benchmarking against the baseline CodeGen-350M-mono model shows that fine-tuning reduces hallucination rates from 100% to as low as 5% and improves structural match accuracy to up to 82% for fully specified inputs. Accuracy declines with decreasing prompt detail but remains nontrivial even when only stoichiometry and space group are provided, underscoring the LLM’s capacity for crystallographic inference. The supervisor Claude LLM evaluates the outputs and triggers iterative refinement through the worker’s built-in structure manipulation capabilities (e.g., supercell scaling, strain, vacancy, and substitution operations). We further demonstrate use cases for technologically relevant catalysts, including IrO 2 , pyrochlore Pb 2 Ir 2 O 7 , Ni 2 FeO 4 , and Ni 3 Mo, where the framework generates physically consistent structures that can be refined via geometry optimization. This work introduces a low-energy, language-driven pathway for integrating human and machine intelligence in materials design, paving the way for AI-assisted synthesis planning and high-throughput screening of complex oxides.

AI agent↗

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

Application of Atmospheric Gases and Particulate Matter to the Assessment of Urban Heat Island

Background: Urban heat island (UHI), where built areas are warmer compared to non-urban regions, increases human related diseases and mortality. A key challenge in UHI analysis is the designation of sites as urban or suburban/rural; however, the growing complexity of green spaces in urban areas and the predominance of the transportation sector in nonurban areas creates a dilemma for distinct delineation. Objectives: This study aims to utilize the variability of atmospheric components such as particulate matter (PM), inorganic gases, and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) as direct tracers of the degree of urbanization for ground-based measurements to fully comprehend UHI in convoluted regions with indistinct delineation of urban and nonurban environments. Methods: Atmospheric gases and aerosols were used as direct tracers of urbanization for UHI analysis. Inorganic gases and particulate matter were monitored in two sites in a southeastern US city with varying degrees of urbanization. VOCs were analyzed using a proton transfer reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer. Results: The more-urbanized site exhibited warmer night conditions and elevated total oxidant levels, leading to the formation of nanometer-sized particles. Machine learning analysis revealed similar atmospheric pollutant profiles for both sites, suggesting comparable sources and variability. Biogenic VOCs were enhanced at the less-urbanized site; however, levels of anthropogenic aromatic VOCs were comparable for both sites. A comprehensive mass spectra analysis revealed distinct molecular backbones per site that further affirmed the applicability of VOCs as indicators of urbanization. Conclusion: This study concludes that VOCs provide more direct and accurate information than typical inorganic gases and PM parameters for characterizing the degree of urbanization. Further exploration of VOCs can enhance our understanding of UHI dynamics and its interaction with vegetation in urban green spaces.

Air quality sensor↗

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗

Tractometry of the Human Connectome Project: resources and insights

The Human Connectome Project (HCP) has become a keystone dataset in human neuroscience, with a plethora of important applications in advancing brain imaging methods and an understanding of the human brain. We focused on tractometry of HCP diffusion-weighted MRI (dMRI) data. We used an open-source software library (pyAFQ; https://yeatmanlab.github.io/pyAFQ) to perform probabilistic tractography and delineate the major white matter pathways in the HCP subjects that have a complete dMRI acquisition (n = 1,041). We used diffusion kurtosis imaging (DKI) to model white matter microstructure in each voxel of the white matter, and extracted tract profiles of DKI-derived tissue properties along the length of the tracts. We explored the empirical properties of the data: first, we assessed the heritability of DKI tissue properties using the known genetic linkage of the large number of twin pairs sampled in HCP. Second, we tested the ability of tractometry to serve as the basis for predictive models of individual characteristics (e.g., age, crystallized/fluid intelligence, reading ability, etc.), compared to local connectome features. To facilitate the exploration of the dataset we created a new web-based visualization tool and use this tool to visualize the data in the HCP tractometry dataset. Finally, we used the HCP dataset as a test-bed for a new technological innovation: the TRX file-format for representation of dMRI-based streamlines. We released the processing outputs and tract profiles as a publicly available data resource through the AWS Open Data program's Open Neurodata repository. We found heritability as high as 0.9 for DKI-based metrics in some brain pathways. We also found that tractometry extracts as much useful information about individual differences as the local connectome method. We released a new web-based visualization tool for tractometry—“Tractoscope” (https://nrdg.github.io/tractoscope). We found that the TRX files require considerably less disk space-a crucial attribute for large datasets like HCP. In addition, TRX incorporates a specification for grouping streamlines, further simplifying tractometry analysis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Imaging shapes of atomic nuclei in high-energy nuclear collisions

Atomic nuclei are self-organized, many-body quantum systems bound by strong nuclear forces within femtometre-scale space. These complex systems manifest a variety of shapes, traditionally explored using non-invasive spectroscopic techniques at low energies. However, at these energies, their instantaneous shapes are obscured by long-timescale quantum fluctuations, making direct observation challenging. Here we introduce the collective-flow-assisted nuclear shape-imaging method, which images the nuclear global shape by colliding them at ultrarelativistic speeds and analysing the collective response of outgoing debris. This technique captures a collision-specific snapshot of the spatial matter distribution within the nuclei, which, through the hydrodynamic expansion, imprints patterns on the particle momentum distribution observed in detectors. We benchmark this method in collisions of ground-state uranium-238 nuclei, known for their elongated, axial-symmetric shape. Our findings show a large deformation with a slight deviation from axial symmetry in the nuclear ground state, aligning broadly with previous low-energy experiments. This approach offers a new method for imaging nuclear shapes, enhances our understanding of the initial conditions in high-energy collisions and addresses the important issue of nuclear structure evolution across energy scales.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A compact, low-power epithermal neutron counter for lunar water detection

The detection and characterization of lunar water are critical for enabling sustainable human and robotic exploration of the Moon. Orbital neutron spectrometers, such as instruments on Lunar Prospector and the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, have revealed hydrogen-rich regions near the poles but are limited by coarse spatial resolution and low counting efficiency. We present a compact, lightweight, and low-power epithermal neutron detector based on boron-coated silicon imagers, designed to probe subsurface hydrogen at decimeter scales from mobile platforms such as lunar rovers. This instrument leverages the high neutron capture cross-section of 10 B to convert epithermal neutrons into detectable α and 7 Li ions in a fully-depleted silicon imager, providing a unique event topology to identify neutrons while suppressing backgrounds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that a 3 μm boron layer achieves optimal neutron detection efficiency, further enhanced with polyethylene moderation to improve sensitivity to the 0.4 eV–500 keV epithermal energy range. For a 10 cm 2 active area, the detector achieves sensitivity to H 2 O weight fractions as low as 0.01 wt% in a 15 minute measurement. This scalable, portable, low-mass design is well-suited for integration into upcoming Artemis and commercial lunar rovers, providing a transformative capability for in-situ resource prospecting and ground-truth validation of orbital measurements.

Detector modelling and simulations I (interaction ↗

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗