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At least 37 records · Page 2

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.↗

Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft.

Collision Consequence↗

Valuing Resilience Benefits of Microgrids for an Interconnected Island Distribution System

Extreme climate-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires are becoming more intense in areas exposed to these threats, requiring approaches to improve the resilience of the electrical infrastructure serving these communities. Long-duration outages caused by such high impact events propagate to economic, health, and social consequences for communities. As essential service providers, electric utilities are mandated to provide safe, economical and reliable electricity to their customers. The public is becoming less tolerant to these more frequent disruptions, especially in view of technological advances that are intended to improve power quality, reliability and resilience. One promising solution is state-of-the-art microgrids and the advanced controls employed therein. This paper presents and demonstrates an approach to technoeconomic analysis that can be used to value the avoided economic consequences of grid resilience investments, as applied to the islands of Vieques and Culebra in Puerto Rico. This valuation methodology can support policies to incorporate resilience value into any investment decision-making process, especially those which serve the public interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Cosmic soft gamma-ray bursts and the stellar super-flare hypothesis

Cosmic soft gamma ray bursts are discussed, and the stellar super-flare hypothesis is supported. Previous predictions and observations of gamma ray bursts are cited. Studies show that it is plausible that the bursts are caused by the bremsstrahlung of electrons accelerated to high energies in a stellar flare event. Possible observational consequences are listed for the stellar flare hypothesis.

Stecker, F. W.↗

SURVEILLANCE DETECTION FOR TRANSPORTATION OPERATIONS PERSONNEL TO PREVENT HIJACKING, THEFT, SABOTAGE, AND MALICIOUS SECURITY EVENTS DURING TRANSPORTING NUCLEAR MATERIAL

The secure transportation of high-consequence materials, including nuclear and radiological assets, is a critical global priority in the face of escalating terrorism, security threats, and violent protests targeting these operations. Effective surveillance detection—the ability to identify, assess, and respond to potential threats across a continuum of scenarios—is paramount in addressing these challenges. This paper outlines a phased, multi-tiered training program designed to strengthen the surveillance detection capabilities of organizations responsible for nuclear material transport. The proposed training program adopts a progressive approach, gradually increasing in technical complexity to provide participants with comprehensive knowledge and tools for implementing robust security strategies. It targets a wide spectrum of stakeholders, including competent authorities, regulators, inspectors, shippers, carriers, law enforcement, and emergency response personnel, equipping them to plan, evaluate, and safeguard nuclear material transportation effectively. Each phase of the program emphasizes distinct elements of the surveillance detection continuum and transport security, focusing on critical topics such as threat identification, adversary task timelines, protective methodologies, and attack mitigation strategies. The training framework is anchored in technical exchanges and scenario-driven courses that reflect real-world complexities and challenges. By addressing the surveillance detection continuum comprehensively—from early threat assessment to active countermeasures—the program reinforces global efforts to secure nuclear assets. It aligns with international security objectives and fosters a strong security culture within participating organizations, ensuring personnel are prepared to counter potential threats and maintain the safe, secure movement of these materials. Ultimately, this initiative aims to enhance preparedness, security, and response capabilities, supporting the global mission to safeguard high-consequence materials against evolving threats.

Zineddin, Dr. Z. [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000848740725)↗

Can Cell to Cell Thermal Runaway Propagation be Prevented in a Li-ion Battery Module?

Increasing cell spacing decreased adjacent cell damage center dotElectrically connected adjacent cells drained more than physically adjacent cells center dotRadiant barrier prevents propagation when fully installed between BP cells center dotBP cells vent rapidly and expel contents at 100% SOC -Slower vent with flame/smoke at 50% -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 160 degC center dotLG cells vent but do not expel contents -Thermal runaway event typically occurs at 200 degC center dotSKC LFP modules did not propagate; fuses on negative terminal of cell may provide a benefit in reducing cell to cell damage propagation. New requirement in NASA-Battery Safety Requirements document: JSC 20793 Rev C 5.1.5.1 Requirements - Thermal Runaway Propagation a. For battery designs greater than a 80-Wh energy employing high specific energy cells (greater than 80 watt-hours/kg, for example, lithium-ion chemistries) with catastrophic failure modes, the battery shall be evaluated to ascertain the severity of a worst-case single-cell thermal runaway event and the propensity of the design to demonstrate cell-to-cell propagation in the intended application and environment. NASA has traditionally addressed the threat of thermal runaway incidents in its battery deployments through comprehensive prevention protocols. This prevention-centered approach has included extensive screening for manufacturing defects, as well as robust battery management controls that prevent abuse-induced runaway even in the face of multiple system failures. This focused strategy has made the likelihood of occurrence of such an event highly improbable. b. The evaluation shall include all necessary analysis and test to quantify the severity (consequence) of the event in the intended application and environment as well as to identify design modifications to the battery or the system that could appreciably reduce that severity. In addition to prevention protocols, programs developing battery designs with catastrophic failure modes should take the steps necessary to assess the severity of a possible thermal runaway event. Programs should assess whether there are reasonable design changes that could appreciably affect the severity of the outcome. Evaluation should include environmental effects to surrounding hardware (i.e., temperature, pressure, shock), contamination effects due to any expelled contaminates, and venting propulsive effects when venting overboard.

Jeevarajan, Judith↗

The risk of solar proton events to space missions

The total dose in rads-tissue from solar protons was tabulated for weekly time intervals, and the number of weeks which gave a dose above 25 rads behind 10 g/sq cm of aluminum for the active 6 years of the 19th cycle were called dangerous or large event weeks. The number of such event weeks was found to be only 3 weeks for the past 20 years. Even though the chance for smaller events is examined, it was found that for any reasonable, high confidence level (95%), the smaller events could be ignored. Consequently, the total particle flux for the 19th cycle was divided by a factor of 3 and determined a single large event week. Using this spectrum, the tissue dose in rads is calculated at the center of an aluminum spherical shell.

Burrell, M. O.↗

Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

Holloway, C. M.↗

'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

Holloway, C. M.↗

Applications of elastic-viscoplastic constitutive models in dynamic analyses of crack run-arrest events

Applications of nonlinear techniques to the first series of six HSST wide-plate crack-arrest tests that were performed are described. The experiments include crack initiations at low temperatures and relatively long (20 cm) cleavage propagation phases which are terminated by arrest in high temperature regions. Crack arrest are then followed by ductile tearing events. Consequently, the crack front regions are exposed to wide ranges of strain rates and temperatures.

Bass, B. R.↗

Gravitational microlensing - The effect of random motion of individual stars in the lensing galaxy

We investigate the influence of random motion of individual stars in the lensing galaxy on the light curve of a gravitationally lensed background quasar. We compare this with the effects of the transverse motion of the galaxy. We find that three-dimensional random motion of stars with a velocity dispersion sigma in each dimension is more effective in producing 'peaks' in a microlensed light curve by a factor a about 1.3 than motion of the galaxy with a transverse velocity v(t) = sigma. This effectiveness parameter a seems to depend only weakly on the surface mass density. With an assumed transverse velocity of v(t) = 600 km/s of the galaxy lensing the QSO 2237+0305 and a measured velocity dispersion of sigma = 215 km/s, the expected rate of maxima in the light curves calculated for bulk motion alone has to be increased by about 10 percent due to the random motion of stars. As a consequence, the average time interval Delta t between two high-magnification events is smaller than the time interval Delta(t) bulk, calculated for bulk motion alone, Delta t about 0.9 Delta(t) bulk.

Kundic, Tomislav↗

Collision in space

On June 25, 1997, the Russian supply spacecraft Progress 234 collided with the Mir space station, rupturing Mir's pressure hull, throwing it into an uncontrolled attitude drift, and nearly forcing evacuation of the station. Like many high-profile accidents, this collision was the consequence of a chain of events leading to the final piloting errors that were its immediate cause. The discussion in this article does not resolve the relative contributions of the actions and decisions in this chain. Neither does it suggest corrective measures, many of which are straightforward and have already been implemented by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Russian Space Agency. Rather, its purpose is to identify the human factors that played a pervasive role in the incident. Workplace stress, fatigue, and sleep deprivation were identified by NASA as contributory factors in the Mir-Progress collision (Culbertson, 1997; NASA, forthcoming), but other contributing factors, such as requiring crew to perform difficult tasks for which their training is not current, could potentially become important factors in future situations.

Mir Project↗

Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of collisional events in chondrite parent bodies

Ar-40/Ar-39 age dating of a number of shocked ordinary chondrites is interpreted in terms of collisional degassing events of meteorite parent bodies, probably in the asteroid belt. Examples of L, H, and at least one LL chondrite show episodic degassing. Degassing ages suggest several distinct events ranging from about 0.03 aeon to 0.7 aeon and probably higher. All specimens of either the H or L chondrites are not consistent with a single age event. A direct correlation exists between the degree of shock heating and the fraction of argon lost during degassing. However, no chondrite yet analyzed shows complete degassing of its high-temperature phase. Consequently, whole rock K-Ar ages are not accurate monitors of the time of the shock event.

Bogard, D. D.↗

Analysis of Impact Induced Damage and its Effect on Structural Integrity of Space Flight Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

The objective of this research work has been to provide analytical background and support to the ongoing experimental program at NASA, White Sands Test Facility, involving testing composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPV) for impact damage and cyclic pressurization. Preliminary theoretical basis, including the governing equations for a shallow shell subjected to internal pressure, has been established. Effects of the Griffith type cracks on the structural integrity of the cylindrical vessel were evaluated by methods of Fracture Mechanics. The results indicate that the effective mass of the pressure vessel is an important factor influencing the response to impact events. We also have found that the material properties of the target, contained in the constitutive equations of the composite attached to the Aluminum liner, dominate the impact event in the low velocity range, the material properties become less important, while the target mass distribution and the impactor mass become more significant as the velocity of the impactor increases. Therefore, at high-velocity impact it is not only the kinetic energy of the impactor but also its mass which has a significant effect on the dynamics of the event, and consequently on the induced damage. This work also suggests a methodology for an assessment of the rate of loading effects on the degradation of the material toughness associated with a high-velocity impact where the rate effects become significant. To model the rate dependence of the material response a viscoelastic-plastic constitutive equations were assumed, and on this basis predictions are made regarding the rate dependent material resistance curve. Other dynamic phenomena associated with the impact event have been treated in the framework of the Computational Mechanics using the courtesy of Prof. P. Guebelle and his graduate student at University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign who have an access to a super-fast computer located on their campus. Finally, the guidelines for a follow-up research program are provided in the body of this report. They address three major areas: theoretical research, numerical studies, and further experimental work.

Wnuk, Michael P.↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Medicine and Pharmacogenomics for Human Deep Space Exploration

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expanding duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be even more essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to further tailor medications included in the spacecraft formulary and increased examination of appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of cutting-edge research and medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique factors and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. One example is the field of pharmacogenomics (PGX),the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on pharmaceutical choice and dosing to avoid adverse drug events and maximize pharmacological efficacy. The goal of this study was to evaluate which drugs in the current space pharmacy could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs onboard the International Space Station (ISS) was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both personal astronaut medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in 157 total drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure. Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent adverse events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost or technical and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high).A comprehensive assessment of commercially available PGX solutions is currently underway to evaluate specimen requirements, cost/benefit analysis (cost vs. number of alleles assessed), utility of variant analysis, relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments(LxC 5x5 table) indicated29medicationswere in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly by drug failure or safety concerns, with the remainder(n=128)of the medications in the green zone where risk is acceptable. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive pre-flight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve targeting drug efficacy and safety, and further open the door to countermeasure research exploring PGX-related allelic variants. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more cost effective and more efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing crew autonomy and providing tailored countermeasures

Alice R W Tang↗

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh↗

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗