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At least 37 records · Page 2
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DOE OSTI2021

Field moment expansion method for interacting bosonic systems

In this work, we introduce a numerical method and python package, https://github.com/andillio/CHiMES, that simulates quantum systems initially well approximated by mean field theory using a second order extension of the classical field approach. We call this the field moment expansion method. In this way, we can accurately approximate the evolution of first and second field moments beyond where the mean field theory breaks down. This allows us to estimate the quantum breaktime of a classical approximation without any calculations external to the theory. We investigate the accuracy of the field moment expansion using a number of well studied quantum test problems. Interacting Bosonic systems similar to scalar field dark matter are chosen as test problems. We find that successful application of this method depends on two conditions: the quantum system must initially be well described by the classical theory, and that the growth of the higher order moments be hierarchical.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical Inference of the Lensing Convergence from Photometric Catalogs with Bayesian Graph Neural Networks

Abstract We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ( κ ) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight (LOS). The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time-delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the “external convergence” ( κ ext ) from the lens environment and LOS is necessary for precise Hubble constant ( H 0 ) inference. Starting from a large-scale simulation with a κ resolution of ∼1′, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy–galaxy lensing scales of ∼1″ and extract random sight lines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1000 sight lines, the BGNN infers the individual κ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of κ precisely and without bias (within the 2 σ credible interval), resulting in a contribution to the H 0 error budget well under 1%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sight line, extracts a stronger κ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the κ ext characterization for precision TDC. The code is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy ⏬ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing data change in scientific datasets

Summary Scientific datasets are growing rapidly and becoming critical to next‐generation scientific discoveries. The validity of scientific results relies on the quality of data used and data are often subject to change, for example, due to observation additions, quality assessments, or processing software updates. The effects of data change are not well understood and difficult to predict. Datasets are often repeatedly updated and recomputing derived data products quickly becomes time consuming and resource intensive and may in some cases not even be necessary, thus delaying scientific advance. Despite its importance, there is a lack of systematic approaches for best comparing data versions to quantify the changes, and ad‐hoc or manual processes are commonly used. In this article, we propose a novel hierarchical approach for analyzing data changes, including real‐time (online) and offline analyses. We employ a variety of fast‐to‐compute numerical analyses, graphical data change representations, and more resource‐intensive recomputations of a subset of the data product. We illustrate the application of our approach using three scientific diverse use cases, namely, satellite, cosmological, and x‐ray data. The results show that a variety of data change metrics should be employed to enable a comprehensive representation and qualitative evaluation of data changes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence for Cosmic Acceleration Is Robust to Observed Correlations between Type Ia Supernova Luminosity and Stellar Age

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful standardizable candles for constraining cosmological models and provided the first evidence of the accelerated expansion of the universe. Their precision derives from empirical correlations, now measured from >1000 SNe Ia, between their luminosities, light-curve shapes, colors, and most recently with the stellar mass of their host galaxy. As mass correlates with other galaxy properties, alternative parameters have been investigated to improve SN Ia standardization though none have been shown to significantly alter the determination of cosmological parameters. We re-examine a recent claim, based on 34 SN Ia in nearby passive host galaxies, of a 0.05 mag Gyr -1 dependence of standardized SN Ia luminosity on host age, which, if extrapolated to higher redshifts, would be a bias up to 0.25 mag, challenging the inference of dark energy. We reanalyze this sample of hosts using both the original method and a Bayesian hierarchical model and find after a fuller accounting of the uncertainties the significance of a dependence on age to be ≤2σ and ~1σ after the removal of a single poorly sampled SN Ia. Here, to test the claim that a trend seen in old stellar populations can be applied to younger ages, we extend our analysis to a larger sample that includes young hosts. We find the residual dependence of host age (after all standardization typically employed for cosmological measurements) to be consistent with zero for 254 SNe Ia from the Pantheon sample, ruling out the large but low significance trend seen in passive hosts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Auriga Streams – I: disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass haloes at multiple resolutions

In a hierarchically formed Universe, galaxies accrete smaller systems that tidally disrupt as they evolve in the host’s potential. We present a complete catalogue of disrupting galaxies accreted onto Milky Way-mass haloes from the Auriga suite of cosmological magnetohydrodynamic zoom-in simulations. We classify accretion events as intact satellites, stellar streams, or phase-mixed systems based on automated criteria calibrated to a visually classified sample, and match accretions to their counterparts in haloes re-simulated at higher resolution. Most satellites at the present day have lost substantial amounts of stellar mass – 67 per cent have $f_\text{bound} < 0.97$ (our threshold of lost stellar mass to no longer be considered intact), while 53 per cent satisfy a more stringent $f_\text{bound} < 0.8$. Streams typically outnumber intact systems, contribute a smaller fraction of overall accreted stars, and are substantial contributors at intermediate distances from the host centre ($\sim$0.1 to $\sim 0.7R_\text{200m}$, or $\sim$35 to $\sim$250 kpc for the Milky Way). We also identify accretion events that disrupt to form streams around massive intact satellites instead of the main host. Streams are more likely than intact or phase-mixed systems to have experienced pre-processing, suggesting this mechanism is important for setting disruption rates around Milky Way-mass haloes. All of these results are preserved across different simulation resolutions, though we do find some hints that satellites disrupt more readily at lower resolution. The Auriga haloes suggest that disrupting satellites surrounding Milky Way-mass galaxies are the norm and that a wealth of tidal features waits to be uncovered in upcoming surveys.

galaxies: haloes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Modeling of STRIDES Strongly Lensed Quasars Using Neural Posterior Estimation

Strongly lensed quasars can be used to constrain cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography. Models of the lens masses are a necessary component of this analysis. To enable time-delay cosmography from a sample of $\mathcal{O}(10^3)$ lenses, which will soon become available from surveys like the Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Euclid Wide Survey, we require fast and standardizable modeling techniques. To address this need, we apply neural posterior estimation (NPE) for modeling galaxy-scale strongly lensed quasars from the Strong Lensing Insights into the Dark Energy Survey (STRIDES) sample. NPE brings two advantages: speed and the ability to implicitly marginalize over nuisance parameters. We extend this method by employing sequential NPE to increase precision of mass model posteriors. We then fold individual lens models into a hierarchical Bayesian inference to recover the population distribution of lens mass parameters, accounting for out-of-distribution shift. After verifying our method using simulated analogs of the STRIDES lens sample, we apply our method to 14 Hubble Space Telescope single-filter observations. We find the population mean of the power-law elliptical mass distribution slope, γ lens , to be $\mathcal{M}_γ$ lens = 2.13 ± 0.06. Our result represents the first population-level constraint for these systems. This population-level inference from fully automated modeling is an important stepping stone toward cosmological inference with large samples of strongly lensed quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A closer look in the mirror: reflections on the matter/dark matter coincidence

We argue that the striking similarity between the cosmic abundances of baryons and dark matter, despite their very different astrophysical behavior, strongly motivates the scenario in which dark matter resides within a rich dark sector parallel in structure to that of the standard model. The near cosmic coincidence is then explained by an approximate ℤ$_{2}$ exchange symmetry between the two sectors, where dark matter consists of stable dark neutrons, with matter and dark matter asymmetries arising via parallel WIMP baryogenesis mechanisms. Taking a top-down perspective, we point out that an adequate ℤ$_{2}$ symmetry necessitates solving the electroweak hierarchy problem in each sector, without our committing to a specific implementation. A higher-dimensional realization in the far UV is presented, in which the hierarchical couplings of the two sectors and the requisite ℤ$_{2}$-breaking structure arise naturally from extra-dimensional localization and gauge symmetries. We trace the cosmic history, paying attention to potential pitfalls not fully considered in previous literature. Residual ℤ$_{2}$-breaking can very plausibly give rise to the asymmetric reheating of the two sectors, needed to keep the cosmological abundance of relativistic dark particles below tight bounds. We show that, despite the need to keep inter-sector couplings highly suppressed after asymmetric reheating, there can naturally be order-one couplings mediated by TeV scale particles which can allow experimental probes of the dark sector at high energy colliders. Massive mediators can also induce dark matter direct detection signals, but likely at or below the neutrino floor.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anisotropic Satellite Galaxy Quenching: A Unique Signature of Energetic Feedback by Supermassive Black Holes?

The quenched fraction of satellite galaxies is aligned with the orientation of the halo's central galaxy, such that on average, satellites form stars at a lower rate along the major axis of the central. This effect, called anisotropic satellite galaxy quenching (ASGQ), has been found in observational data and cosmological simulations. Analyzing the IllustrisTNG simulation, Martín-Navarro et al. recently argued that ASGQ is caused by anisotropic energetic feedback and constitutes "compelling observational evidence for the role of black holes in regulating galaxy evolution." In this Letter, we study the causes of ASGQ in state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations to evaluate this claim. We show that cosmological simulations predict that on average, satellite galaxies along the major axis of the dark matter halo tend to have been accreted at earlier cosmic times and are hosted by subhalos of larger peak halo masses. As a result, a modulation of the quenched fraction with respect to the major axis of the central galaxy is a natural prediction of hierarchical structure formation. We show that ASGQ is predicted by the UniverseMachine galaxy formation model, a model without anisotropic feedback. Furthermore, we demonstrate that even in the IllustrisTNG simulation, anisotropic satellite accretion properties are the main cause of ASGQ. Ultimately, we argue that ASGQ is not a reliable indicator of supermassive black hole feedback in galaxy formation simulations and, thus, should not be interpreted as such in observational data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extremely massive disc galaxies in the nearby Universe form through gas-rich minor mergers

ABSTRACT In our hierarchical structure-formation paradigm, the observed morphological evolution of massive galaxies – from rotationally supported discs to dispersion-dominated spheroids – is largely explained via galaxy merging. However, since mergers are likely to destroy discs, and the most massive galaxies have the richest merger histories, it is surprising that any discs exist at all at the highest stellar masses. Recent theoretical work by our group has used a cosmological, hydrodynamical simulation to suggest that extremely massive (M* > 1011.4 M⊙) discs form primarily via minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites, which create new rotational stellar components and leave discs as remnants. Here, we use UV-optical and H i data of massive galaxies, from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS), and Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA surveys, to test these theoretical predictions. Observed massive discs account for ∼13 per cent of massive galaxies, in good agreement with theory (∼11 per cent). ∼64 per cent of the observed massive discs exhibit tidal features, which are likely to indicate recent minor mergers, in the deep DECaLS images (compared to ∼60 per cent in their simulated counterparts). The incidence of these features is at least four times higher than in low-mass discs, suggesting that, as predicted, minor mergers play a significant (and outsized) role in the formation of these systems. The empirical star formation rates agree well with theoretical predictions and, for a small galaxy sample with H i detections, the H i masses and fractions are consistent with the range predicted by the simulation. The good agreement between theory and observations indicates that extremely massive discs are indeed remnants of recent minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

TDCOSMO - IV. Hierarchical time-delay cosmography – joint inference of the Hubble constant and galaxy density profiles

The H0LiCOW collaboration inferred via strong gravitational lensing time delays a Hubble constant value of H0 = 73.3−1.8+1.7 km s−1 Mpc−1, describing deflector mass density profiles by either a power-law or stars (constant mass-to-light ratio) plus standard dark matter halos. The mass-sheet transform (MST) that leaves the lensing observables unchanged is considered the dominant source of residual uncertainty in H0. We quantify any potential effect of the MST with a flexible family of mass models, which directly encodes it, and they are hence maximally degenerate with H0. Our calculation is based on a new hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the MST is only constrained by stellar kinematics. The approach is validated on mock lenses, which are generated from hydrodynamic simulations. We first applied the inference to the TDCOSMO sample of seven lenses, six of which are from H0LiCOW, and measured H0 = 74.5−6.1+5.6 km s−1 Mpc−1. Secondly, in order to further constrain the deflector mass density profiles, we added imaging and spectroscopy for a set of 33 strong gravitational lenses from the Sloan Lens ACS (SLACS) sample. For nine of the 33 SLAC lenses, we used resolved kinematics to constrain the stellar anisotropy. From the joint hierarchical analysis of the TDCOSMO+SLACS sample, we measured H0 = 67.4−3.2+4.1 km s−1 Mpc−1. This measurement assumes that the TDCOSMO and SLACS galaxies are drawn from the same parent population. The blind H0LiCOW, TDCOSMO-only and TDCOSMO+SLACS analyses are in mutual statistical agreement. The TDCOSMO+SLACS analysis prefers marginally shallower mass profiles than H0LiCOW or TDCOSMO-only. Without relying on the form of the mass density profile used by H0LiCOW, we achieve a ∼5% measurement of H0. While our new hierarchical analysis does not statistically invalidate the mass profile assumptions by H0LiCOW – and thus the H0 measurement relying on them – it demonstrates the importance of understanding the mass density profile of elliptical galaxies. The uncertainties on H0 derived in this paper can be reduced by physical or observational priors on the form of the mass profile, or by additional data.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / galaxies: general / galaxies: kinematics and dynamics / distance scale / cosmological parameters / cosmology: observations⋆ The full analysis is available at https://github.com/TDCOSMO/hierarchy_analysis_2020_public.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The High Fraction of Thin Disk Galaxies Continues to Challenge ΛCDM Cosmology

Any viable cosmological framework has to match the observed proportion of early- and late-type galaxies. In this contribution, we focus on the distribution of galaxy morphological types in the standard model of cosmology (Lambda cold dark matter, ΛCDM). Using the latest state-of-the-art cosmological ΛCDM simulations known as Illustris, IllustrisTNG, and EAGLE, we calculate the intrinsic and sky-projected aspect ratio distribution of the stars in subhalos with stellar mass M * > 10 10 M ⊙ at redshift z = 0. There is a significant deficit of intrinsically thin disk galaxies, which however comprise most of the locally observed galaxy population. Consequently, the sky-projected aspect ratio distribution produced by these ΛCDM simulations disagrees with the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and Sloan Digital Sky Survey at ≥12.52σ (TNG50-1) and ≥14.82σ (EAGLE50) confidence. The deficit of intrinsically thin galaxies could be due to a much less hierarchical merger-driven build-up of observed galaxies than is given by the ΛCDM framework. It might also arise from the implemented sub-grid models, or from the limited resolution of the above-mentioned hydrodynamical simulations. We estimate that an 8 5 times better mass resolution realization than TNG50-1 would reduce the tension with GAMA to the 5.58σ level. Finally, we show that galaxies with fewer major mergers have a somewhat thinner aspect ratio distribution. Given also the high expected frequency of minor mergers in ΛCDM, the problem may be due to minor mergers. In this case, the angular momentum problem could be alleviated in Milgromian dynamics because of a reduced merger frequency arising from the absence of dynamical friction between extended dark matter halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Weak lensing trispectrum and Kurt-spectra

We introduce two kurt-spectra to probe fourth-order statistics of weak lensing convergence maps. Using state-of-the-art numerical simulations, we study the shapes of these kurt-spectra as a function of source redshifts and smoothing angular scales. We employ a pseudo-Cℓ approach to estimate the spectra from realistic convergence maps in the presence of an observational mask and noise for stage-IV large-scale structure surveys. We compare these results against theoretical predictions calculated using the FFTLog formalism, and find that a simple nonlinear clustering model — the hierarchical ansatz — can reproduce the numerical trends for the kurt-spectra in the nonlinear regime. In addition, we provide estimators for beyond fourth-order spectra where no definitive analytical results are available, and present corresponding results from numerical simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling pair count to next galaxy surveys

ABSTRACT Counting pairs of galaxies or stars according to their distance is at the core of real-space correlation analyses performed in astrophysics and cosmology. Upcoming galaxy surveys (LSST, Euclid) will measure properties of billions of galaxies challenging our ability to perform such counting in a minute-scale time relevant for the usage of simulations. The problem is only limited by efficient access to the data, hence belongs to the big data category. We use the popular Apache Spark framework to address it and design an efficient high-throughput algorithm to deal with hundreds of millions to billions of input data. To optimize it, we revisit the question of non-hierarchical sphere pixelization based on cube symmetries and develop a new one dubbed the ‘Similar Radius Sphere Pixelization’ (SARSPix) with very close to square pixels. It provides the most adapted indexing over the sphere for all distance-related computations. Using LSST-like fast simulations, we compute autocorrelation functions on tomographic bins containing between a hundred million to one billion data points. In each case, we achieve the construction of a standard pair-distance histogram in about 2 min, using a simple algorithm that is shown to scale, over a moderate number of nodes (16–64). This illustrates the potential of this new techniques in the field of astronomy where data access is becoming the main bottleneck. They can be easily adapted to other use-cases as nearest-neighbours search, catalogue cross-match or cluster finding. The software is publicly available from https://github.com/astrolabsoftware/SparkCorr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sleptonic SUSY: from UV framework to IR phenomenology

We study an attractive scenario, “Sleptonic SUSY”, which reconciles the 125 GeV Higgs scalar and the non-observation of superpartners thus far with potentially pivotal roles for slepton phenomenology: providing viable ongoing targets for LHC discovery, incorporating a co-annihilation partner for detectable thermal relic dark matter, and capable of mediating the potential muon g – 2 anomaly. This is accomplished by a modestly hierarchical spectrum, with sub-TeV sleptons and electroweakinos and with multi-TeV masses for the other new states. We study new elements in the UV MSSM realization of Sleptonic SUSY based on higher-dimensional sequestering and the synergy between the resulting gaugino-mediation, hypercharge D-term mediation and Higgs-mediation of SUSY-breaking, so as to more fully capture the range of possibilities. This framework stands out by harmoniously solving the flavor, CP and μ – Bμ problems of the supersymmetric paradigm. We discuss its extension to orbifold GUTs, including gauge-coupling and b-tau unification. We also develop a non-minimal model with extra Higgs fields, in which the electroweak vacuum is more readily cosmologically stable against decay to a charge-breaking vacuum, allowing a broader range of sleptonic spectra than in the MSSM alone. We survey the rich set of signals possible at the LHC and future colliders, covering both R-parity conservation and violation, as well as for dark matter detection. While the multi-TeV squarks imply a Little Hierarchy Problem, intriguingly, small changes in parameter space to improve naturalness result in dramatic phase transitions to either electroweak-preservation or charge-breaking. In a Multiverse setting, the modest unnaturalness may then be explained by the “principle of living dangerously”.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

TDCOSMO VIII. A key test of systematics in the hierarchical method of time-delay cosmography

The largest source of systematic errors in the time-delay cosmography method likely arises from the lens model mass distribution, where an inaccurate choice of model could in principle bias the value of $H$ 0 . A Bayesian hierarchical framework has been proposed which combines lens systems with kinematic data, constraining the mass profile shape at a population level. The framework has been previously validated using a small sample of lensing galaxies drawn from hydro-simulations. The goal of this work is to expand the validation to a more general set of lenses consistent with observed systems, as well as confirm the capacity of the method to combine two lens populations: one which has time delay information and one which lacks time delays and has systematically different image radii. For this purpose, we generated samples of analytic lens mass distributions made of baryons+dark matter and fit the subsequent mock images with standard power-law models. Corresponding kinematics data were also emulated. The hierarchical framework applied to an ensemble of time-delay lenses allowed us to correct the $H$ 0 bias associated with model choice to find $H$ 0 within 1.5σ of the fiducial value. We then combined this set with a sample of corresponding lens systems which have no time delays and have a source at lower $z$, resulting in a systematically smaller image radius relative to their effective radius. The hierarchical framework has successfully accounted for this effect, recovering a value of $H$ 0 which is both more precise (σ ~ 2%) and more accurate (0.7% median offset) than the time-delay set alone. This result confirms that non-time-delay lenses can nonetheless contribute valuable constraining power to the determination of $H$ 0 via their kinematic constraints, assuming they come from the same global population as the time-delay set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particle physics and cosmology of the string derived no-scale flipped SU(5)

In a recent paper, we identified a cosmological sector of a flipped SU(5) model derived in the free fermionic formulation of the heterotic superstring, containing the inflaton and the goldstino superfields with a superpotential leading to Starobinsky type inflation, while SU(5) × U(1) is still unbroken. Here, we study the properties and phenomenology of the vacuum after the end of inflation, where the gauge group is broken to the Standard Model. We identify a set of vacuum expectation values, triggered by the breaking of an anomalous U(1) A gauge symmetry at roughly an order of magnitude below the string scale, that solve the F and D-flatness supersymmetric conditions up to 6th order in the superpotential which is explicitly computed, leading to a successful particle phenomenology. In particular, all extra colour triplets become superheavy guaranteeing observable proton stability, while the Higgs doublet mass matrix has a massless pair eigenstate with realistic hierarchical Yukawa couplings to quarks and leptons. The supersymmetry breaking scale is constrained to be high, consistent with the non observation of supersymmetry signals at the LHC.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correcting for Selection Biases in the Determination of the Hubble Constant from Time-Delay Cosmography

The time delay between multiple images of strongly lensed quasars has been used to infer the Hubble constant. The primary systematic uncertainty for time-delay cosmography is the mass-sheet transform (MST), which preserves the lensing observables while altering the inferred ⁠H 0 . The TDCOSMO collaboration used velocity dispersion measurements of lensed quasars and lensed galaxies to infer that mass sheets are present, which decrease the inferred H 0 by 8 per cent. Here, we test the assumption that the density profiles of galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses are the same. We use a composite star-plus-dark-matter mass profile for the parent deflector population and model the selection function for galaxy–galaxy and galaxy–quasar lenses. We find that a power-law density profile with an MST is a good approximation to a two-component mass profile around the Einstein radius, but we find that galaxy–galaxy lenses have systematically higher mass-sheet components than galaxy–quasar lenses. For individual systems, λ int correlates with the ratio of the half-light radius and Einstein radius of the lens. By propagating these results through the TDCOSMO hierarchical inference code, we find that H 0 is lowered by a further 3 per cent. Using a more recent measurement of velocity dispersions and our fiducial model for selection biases, we infer H 0 = 66 ± 4 (stat) ± 1 (model sys) ± 2 (measurement sys) km s -1 Mpc -1 for the TDCOSMO plus SLACS data set. The first residual systematic error is due to plausible alternative choices in modelling the selection function, and the second is an estimate of the remaining systematic error in the measurement of velocity dispersions for SLACS lenses. Accurate time-delay cosmography requires precise velocity dispersion measurements and accurate calibration of selection biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗