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NASA NTRS2023

Auroral, Ionospheric and Ground Magnetic Signatures of Magnetopause Surface Modes

Surface waves on Earth's magnetopause have a controlling effect upon global magnetospheric dynamics. Since spacecraft provide sparse in situ observation points, remote sensing these modes using ground-based instruments in the polar regions is desirable. However, many open conceptual questions on the expected signatures remain. Therefore, we provide predictions of key qualitative features expected in auroral, ionospheric, and ground magnetic observations through both magnetohydrodynamic theory and a global coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a magnetopause surface eigenmode. These show monochromatic oscillatory field-aligned currents (FACs), due to both the surface mode and its non-resonant Alfvén coupling, are present throughout the magnetosphere. The currents peak in amplitude at the equatorward edge of the magnetopause boundary layer, not the open-closed boundary as previously thought. They also exhibit slow poleward phase motion rather than being purely evanescent. We suggest the upward FAC perturbations may result in periodic auroral brightenings. In the ionosphere, convection vortices circulate the poleward moving FAC structures. Finally, surface mode signals are predicted in the ground magnetic field, with ionospheric Hall currents rotating perturbations by approximately (but not exactly) 90° compared to the magnetosphere. Thus typical dayside magnetopause surface modes should be strongest in the East-West ground magnetic field component. Overall, all ground-based signatures of the magnetopause surface mode are predicted to have the same frequency across L-shells, amplitudes that maximize near the magnetopause's equatorward edge, and larger latitudinal scales than for field line resonance. Implications in terms of ionospheric Joule heating and geomagnetically induced currents are discussed.

M. O. Archer↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Pullkkinen, A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2013

Forecasting Propagation and Evolution of CMEs in an Operational Setting: What Has Been Learned

One of the major types of solar eruption, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) not only impact space weather, but also can have significant societal consequences. CMEs cause intense geomagnetic storms and drive fast mode shocks that accelerate charged particles, potentially resulting in enhanced radiation levels both in ions and electrons. Human and technological assets in space can be endangered as a result. CMEs are also the major contributor to generating large amplitude Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs), which are a source of concern for power grid safety. Due to their space weather significance, forecasting the evolution and impacts of CMEs has become a much desired capability for space weather operations worldwide. Based on our operational experience at Space Weather Research Center at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (http://swrc.gsfc.nasa.gov), we present here some of the insights gained about accurately predicting CME impacts, particularly in relation to space weather operations. These include: 1. The need to maximize information to get an accurate handle of three-dimensional (3-D) CME kinetic parameters and therefore improve CME forecast; 2. The potential use of CME simulation results for qualitative prediction of regions of space where solar energetic particles (SEPs) may be found; 3. The need to include all CMEs occurring within a ~24 h period for a better representation of the CME interactions; 4. Various other important parameters in forecasting CME evolution in interplanetary space, with special emphasis on the CME propagation direction. It is noted that a future direction for our CME forecasting is to employ the ensemble modeling approach.

forecasting↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2019

Method of Using Power Grid as Large Antenna for Geophysical Imaging

A high-voltage power transmission system is used as an extremely large antenna to extract spatiotemporal space, physical, and geological information from geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). A differential magnetometer method is used to measure GIC and involves acquiring line measurements from a first fluxgate magnetometer under a high-voltage transmission line, acquiring natural field measurements from a reference magnetometer nearby but not under the transmission line, subtracting the natural field measurements from the line measurements, and determining the GIC-related Biot-Savart field from the difference. NASA warning and alarm systems can be triggered based on determinations of GIC amplitude levels that exceed a set threshold value.

Pulkkinen, Antti A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Global Ozone Loss Following Extreme Solar Proton Storms Based on the July 2012 Coronal Mass Ejection

Large solar coronal mass ejections pose a threat in the near-Earth space. As a cause of extreme periods of space weather, they can damage satellite-based communications and create geomagnetically induced currents in power and energy grids. Further, the solar wind energetic particles can reduce the protecting layer of atmospheric ozone and pose a threat to life on Earth. The large coronal mass ejection (CME) of July 2012, although directed away from the Earth, is often highlighted as a prime example of a potentially devastating super storm. Here we show, based on proton fluxes recorded by the instruments aboard the STEREO-A satellite, that the atmospheric response to the July 2012 event would have been comparable to those of the largest solar proton events of the satellite era. Significant impact on total ozone outside polar regions would require a much larger event, similar to those recorded in historical proxy data sets. Such an extreme event would cause long-term ozone reduction all the way to the equator and increase the size, duration, and depth of the Antarctic ozone hole. The impact would be comparable to predicted drastic and sudden ozone reduction from major volcanic eruptions, regional nuclear conflicts, or long-term stratospheric geoengineering.

ozone depletion↗
NASA NTRS2022

Revisiting the Ground Magnetic Field Perturbations Challenge: A Machine Learning Perspective

Forecasting ground magnetic field perturbations has been a long-standing goal of the space weather community. The availability of ground magnetic field data and its potential to be used in geomagnetically induced current studies, such as risk assessment, have resulted in several forecasting efforts over the past few decades. One particular community effort was the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) challenge of ground magnetic field perturbations that evaluated the predictive capacity of several empirical and first principles models at both mid- and high-latitudes in order to choose an operative model. In this work, we use three different deep learning models-a feed-forward neural network, a long short-term memory recurrent network and a convolutional neural network-to forecast the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field rate of change (dB H /dt) over 6 different ground magnetometer stations and to compare as directly as possible with the original GEM challenge. We find that, in general, the models are able to perform at similar levels to those obtained in the original challenge, although the performance depends heavily on the particular storm being evaluated. We then discuss the limitations of such a comparison on the basis that the original challenge was not designed with machine learning algorithms in mind.

Victor A. Pinto↗
NASA NTRS2017

Introduction to NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Institute GIC Working Group Special Collection

This paper is a brief introduction to the NASA Living With a Star (LWS) Institute GIC Working Group Special Collection that is product of work by a group of researchers from more than 20 different international organizations. In this introductory paper, I summarize the group's work in the context of novel NASA LWS Institute element and introduce the individual contributions in the collection.

geomagnetically induced currents↗
NASA NTRS1979

The problem of solar induced currents

The production of surface electric fields by geomagnetic variations is discussed with reference to magnetotelluric theory; and evidence is presented to show that the severity of solar-induced currents (SIC) at Cornerbrook, Newfoundland is due to channeling of currents induced in the sea through a region adjacent to the power line. An 'isolated loop' approximation is proposed for calculating the quasi-dc currents produced in the power system by the surface electric fields. Identification of the processes causing the geomagnetic perturbations responsible for SIC would be aided by investigation of the local time dependence of SIC occurrence. Such knowledge could potentially be used to provide several hours warning of SIC.

Boteler, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Transforming Community Access to Space Science Models

Researching and forecasting the ever changing space environment (often referred to as space weather) and its influence on humans and their activities are model-intensive disciplines. This is true because the physical processes involved are complex, but, in contrast to terrestrial weather, the supporting observations are typically sparse. Models play a vital role in establishing a physically meaningful context for interpreting limited observations, testing theory, and producing both nowcasts and forecasts. For example, with accurate forecasting of hazardous space weather conditions, spacecraft operators can place sensitive systems in safe modes, and power utilities can protect critical network components from damage caused by large currents induced in transmission lines by geomagnetic storms.

MacNeice, Peter↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-dimensional Global MHD Simulations

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al., (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst approx. = −1600 nT.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS1974

Temperature and electrical conductivity of the lunar interior from magnetic transient measurements in the geomagnetic tail

Magnetometers were deployed at four Apollo sites on the moon to measure remanent and induced lunar magnetic fields. Measurements from this network of instruments were used to calculate the electrical conductivity, temperature, magnetic permeability, and iron abundance of the lunar interior. Global lunar fields due to eddy currents, induced in the lunar interior by magnetic transients in the geomagnetic tail field, were analyzed to calculate an electrical conductivity profile for the moon: the conductivity increases rapidly with depth from 10 to the minus 9 power mhos/meter at the lunar surface to .0001 mhos/meter at 200 km depth, then less rapidly to .02 mhos/meter at 1000 km depth. A temperature profile is calculated from conductivity: temperature rises rapidly with depth to 1100 K at 200 km depth, then less rapidly to 1800 K at 1000 km depth. Velocities and thicknesses of the earth's magnetopause and bow shock are estimated from simultaneous magnetometer measurements. Average speeds are determined to be about 50 km/sec for the magnetopause and 70 km/sec for the bow shock, although there are large variations in the measurements for any particular boundary crossing.

Dyal, P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Current-Produced Magnetic Field Effects on Current Collection

Current collection by an infinitely long, conducting cylinder in a magnetized plasma, taking into account the magnetic field of the collected current, is discussed. A region of closed magnetic surfaces disconnects the cylinder from infinity. Due to this, the collected current depends on the ratio between this region and the plasma sheath region and, under some conditions, current reduction arises. The current collection along a realistic "bare wire" space tether is considered. A number of factors are taken into account, including the resistance of the wire and shielding resulting from the current-induced magnetic field produced by current flow in the tether. The plasma density, tether length and radius, the geomagnetic field strength and angle to the orbital velocity vector were all used as parameters in the study. It is shown that magnetic shielding for certain tether system configurations, when combined with particular values of the governing parameters, significantly reduces the collected current. Specifically, it is shown that an electrodynamic tether in the "thruster" mode suffers greater reduction from magnetic shielding than a tether with the same characteristics deployed in the "generator" mode. We find that, for both modes, current-induced magnetic shielding becomes more significant as plasma density and wire radius increase. The same is true for the dependence on the angle of the geomagnetic field to the orbital velocity vector and the motion-induced electric field for the generator mode For the thruster mode, the effect is larger for smaller angles. In both operating modes, the shielding is more important for smaller angles between the tether and magnetic field. In addition to the above dependencies, the effect for the thruster mode essentially depends on the tether length. In general, any parametric change that increases tether current, relative to the strength of the electric field between the tether and the ambient plasma, will increase the shielding effect (thereby reducing overall tether current compared to the case without considering these effects). The effect of the induced magnetic shielding can be significant in some cases.

Khazanov, George V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Practicality of Using a Tether for Electrodynamic Reboost of the International Space Station

ElectroDynamic (ED) Tethers can generate continuous low thrust in a low Earth orbit. An induced current running through the length of the tether reacts with the geomagnetic field to produce thrust. The amount of thrust scales with tether lens!th and current. The International Space Station (ISS) requires periodic reboost to maintain an approximately circular orbit t above the Earth. The baseline reboost method is a traditional bi-propellant rocket thruster and tankage system which must to be refueled via Soyuz / Progress or other launch vehicle. The estimated propellant costs associated with keeping ISS in the designated orbit over a 10-year life have been extremely high. The ED Tether would draw energy from the renewable ISS Solar Array electrical power system. Propulsion requirements for ISS vary depending on solar wind and other conditions. It is projected that a ED Tether could provide the majority of the required reboost thrust for ISS for a nominal solar year. For above nominal solar wind years the ISS would have to use the rocket reboost system, but at a greatly reduced level. Thus resulting in substantial cost savings, via the reduction in the number of Earth-to-orbit launch vehicle flights to the ISS that must bring reboost propellant. However, the purposes of this paper is to further Previous research on an ISS ED Tether and examine the operational and technical issues working against using a ED Tether on ISS. Issues such as Shuttle rendezvous and flight path concerns raise serious safety concerns and restrictions on tether use. Tether issues such as tether librations and off angle thrust raise concerns about impacts to microgravity payloads and the long-term effect on ISS orbital path and inclination. Operational issues such as peak power available to an ED Tether and allowable duty cycle may impose severe restrictions on tether design and ultimately limit the practicality of an ED Tether on ISS. Thus while at first glance the cost numbers appear to be strongly in favor of an ED Tether the limitations imposed by safety, operations and technical concerns may severely undermine the economic model. Possible Solutions to these problems have been investigated and proposed, however some items like off angle thrust are still being actively investigated for an adequate solution.

Blumer, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

MAGSAT for geomagnetic studies over Indian region

The external current field due to ring current and the associated induced part were removed. Adjacent passes over India were elected and best function to account for the trend correction was estimated. The UPCON software sent from Canada was made operational and features of equatorial electrojet were studied from MAGSAT records.

Rastogi, R. G.↗