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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai'i

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy's Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company's GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

building cooling↗
DOE OSTI2025

2025 Geothermal Drilling Cost Curves Update: Preprint

Drilling activities account for 30% to 57% of the cost to develop and install a geothermal plant. Therefore, an accurate representation of the cost to drill a well is paramount in techno-economic analysis to determine the feasibility of a geothermal power project. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) endeavored to revise the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) GeoVision baseline drilling cost curves due to extensive improvement in drilling rates at the Utah Frontier Observatory Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) demonstration site. That effort did not culminate in the recommendation of new curves because the actual project costs did not match the reported performance improvements and were at or above the GeoVision baseline. The need for another iteration of this analysis has arisen from industry record drilling performance reported by recent commercial field-scale and demonstration projects, including Fervo Energy’s Cape Station, the Utah FORGE 16B(78)-32 demonstration and the Geysers Power Company’s GDC-36 demonstration. Therefore, in this work, we have estimated the resulting industry average rate of penetration (ROP) and bit life and applied these parameters as inputs to the Well Cost Simplified model used in the GeoVision analysis. The resulting revised cost curves show a significant decline from the GeoVision baseline. For vertical wells, the magnitude of cost decline ranges between 12% and 24% while for deviated wells, cost reductions between 18% and 26% are estimated. The revised cost curves are in good agreement with actual cost data and therefore, quantify the economic impact of the utilization of (and advances in) polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bit technology and the application of physics-based methodologies that optimize mechanical specific energy.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Performance, Cost, and Financial Parameters of Geothermal District Heating Systems for Market Penetration Modeling under Various Scenarios

Geothermal district heating (GDH) systems have limited penetration in the U.S., with an estimated installed capacity of only 100 MWth for a total of 21 sites. We see higher deployment in other regions, for example, in Europe with an installed capacity of more than 4,700 MWth for 257 GDH sites. The U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Vision (GeoVision) Study is currently looking at the potential to increase the deployment in the U.S. and to understand the impact of this increased deployment. This paper reviews 31 performance, cost, and financial parameters as input for numerical simulations describing GDH system deployment in support of the GeoVision effort. The focus is on GDH systems using hydrothermal and Enhanced Geothermal System resources in the U.S.; ground-source heat pumps and heat-to-electricity conversion technology were excluded. Parameters investigated include 1) capital and operation and maintenance costs for both subsurface and surface equipment; 2) performance factors such as resource recovery factors, well flow rates, and system efficiencies; and 3) financial parameters such as inflation, interest, and tax rates. Current values as well as potential future improved values under various scenarios are presented. Sources of data considered include academic and popular literature, software tools such as GETEM and GEOPHIRES, industry interviews, and analysis conducted by other task forces for the GeoVision Study, e.g., on the drilling costs and reservoir performance.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Future of Energy in Hawai'i: Conversations on Culture, Community, and the Role of Geothermal

Beginning in 2023, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), with support from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), began an effort to hear perspectives of Hawaiian communities regarding geothermal energy. These engagement efforts are summarized in this report and were inspired by the GeoVision analysis and the GeoVision Roadmap (Roadmap).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

EGS Collab Experiment 1: 4850L Downhole Camera Surveys During Injection

This package includes data and footage from two rounds of downhole camera surveys performed at the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) on the 4850 level. The exercise was performed once on 25 May 2018 and once on 21 December 2018. On May 25th, the first round was done during fluid injection at the 164-ft stimulation zone in the injection well (E1-I). On December 21st, the second round was carried out during fluid injection at the 142-ft stimulation zone. Prior to the injections, downhole instrumentation was removed from the production well (E1-P) to allow room for the downhole camera system. The water within E1-P was then lifted out by the application of air pressure and the downhole camera system was conveyed into the production well. Finally, the water was injected into E1-I and the camera was used to scan for jetting points, or fluid entry, in E1-P. There is a survey description in this package that further describes the procedure of the survey and the overall results. Additionally, there is a detailed analysis of the surveys in the form of a PowerPoint, which includes animations/visualizations from the camera footage, presents interpretations in detail, and provides some general conclusions. Three animations, along with the two video segments that show the jetting into E1-P, are also provided. The video footage was collected using a GeoVISION Dual-Scan Micro Video Camera, the specs of which are also included in this package as a resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Energy R&D: An Overview of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office

Geothermal energy can provide answers to many of America’s essential energy questions. The United States has tremendous geothermal resources, as illustrated by the results of the DOE GeoVision analysis, but technical and non-technical barriers have historically stood in the way of widespread deployment of geothermal energy. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Geothermal Technologies Office within the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy has invested more than $470 million in research and development (R&D) since 2015 to meet its three strategic goals: (1) unlock the potential of enhanced geothermal systems, (2) advance technologies to increase geothermal energy on the U.S. electricity grid, and (3) support R&D to expand geothermal energy opportunities throughout the United States. Here, we describe many of those R&D initiatives and outlines future directions in geothermal research.

energy storage systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

GeoThermalCloud: Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration

Geothermal is a renewable energy source that can provide reliable and flexible electricity generation for the world. In the past decade, the U.S. Geological Survey's resource assessments, Play Fairway Analyses (PFA), and GeoVision report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Geothermal Technologies Office provided insights on enormous untapped potential for geothermal energy to contribute to the U.S. domestic energy needs. The past studies identified that geothermal resources without surface expression (e.g., blind/hidden hydrothermal systems) comprise a huge potential. These blind systems can significantly increase power generation. But a primary challenge is locating and quantifying these hidden resources, which do not have any thermal manifestations on the surface. PFA has successfully identified some blind systems in the western USA (e.g., specific locations in the Great Basin region within Nevada). However, a comprehensive search for these blind systems can be time-consuming, expensive, and resource-intensive with a low probability of success. Accelerated discovery of these blind resources is needed with growing energy needs and higher chances of exploration success. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have shown promise in shortening the timeline for this discovery. This paper presents a novel ML-based methodology for geothermal exploration towards PFA applications. Our methodology is provided through our open-source ML framework called GeoThermalCloud \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl}. GeoThermalCloud uses a series of unsupervised, supervised, and physics-informed ML methods available in SmartTensors AI platform \url{https://github.com/SmartTensors}. Here, the presented analyses are performed using our unsupervised ML algorithm called NMF$k$, which is available in the SmartTensors AI platform. Our ML algorithm facilitates the discovery of new phenomena, hidden patterns, and mechanisms that helps us to make informed decisions. Moreover, the GeoThermalCloud enhances the collected PFA data and discovers signatures representative of geothermal resources. Through GeoThermalCloud, we were able to identify hidden patterns in the geothermal field data needed for the efficient discovery of blind systems. Crucial geothermal signatures often overlooked in traditional PFA are extracted using GeoThermalCloud and analyzed by the subject matter experts to provide ML-enhanced PFA, which is informative for efficient exploration. We applied our ML methodology on various open-source geothermal datasets within the U.S. (some of these are collected by past PFA work), and the results provide valuable insights on resource types within those explored regions. This ML-enhanced workflow makes GeoThermalCloud attractive for the geothermal community to improve existing datasets and extract valuable information often unnoticed during geothermal exploration.

machine learning (ML), geothermal energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

GTO Multi-Year Program Plan FY 2022-2026

The GTO Multi-Year Program Plan (MYPP), building on the findings of the GeoVision analysis, outlines a 5-year plan of activities GTO will pursue to support the growth and long-term contribution of geothermal energy to the U.S. electricity grid and American homes and buildings. The MYPP outlines GTO’s vision and mission and presents a high-level technology plan for key areas of GTO research starting in Fiscal Year (FY) 2022 and running through the end of FY 2026.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Geothermal Roadmap for Indonesia

The technical geothermal roadmapping exercise described by this report is part of the NZW Collaborative Work Program with the Government of Indonesia. Indonesia currently has the second largest installed geothermal power generation capacity in the world and has abundant undeveloped resources that allow for continued expansion of its geothermal resource development, which can serve to contribute to the country’s goal of achieving net zero emissions for power generation by 2060. The DOE GeoVision study (2019) highlighted the importance of technical improvements as the key for accelerating the development of geothermal resources in the United States by reducing the costs and risks to make geothermal more competitive, and this also applies to Indonesia. The main objective of the roadmap is to identify and discuss key technical challenges and discuss how implementation of geothermal technology advances could reduce the risks, costs, and time associated with geothermal exploration and development activities and expand the potential resource base to include unconventional resource types, thus accelerating geothermal deployment in Indonesia.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geothermal Sector Cybersecurity Vulnerability Assessment

A review of geothermal sector-specific cybersecurity vulnerabilities and risks (consequences) was conducted at the request of the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO). The vulnerabilities and risks reviewed in this study have relevance to achieving the 2019 GeoVision Report (DOE GTO 2019) technological advancements and expected sector growth. The study offers areas for consideration but does not quantify the likelihood (frequency) of the consequences. This cybersecurity analysis project represents a proactive effort to identify areas to enhance cybersecurity in geothermal development and operations. It was not initiated to address any immediate threat or specific known risk. Of the eight identified vulnerabilities analyzed, the review identified reservoir data system monitoring as one that is unique to geothermal systems and may warrant further investigation to better understand risk and mitigation. A detailed analysis of the other vulnerabilities may highlight additional uniqueness relative to other industries. Further research actions are recommended to better quantify risk and enhance cybersecurity preparedness of the sector. As the geothermal industry grows, the cybersecurity strategies to be deployed will be of increasing importance to ensure resilient, reliable, and secure clean energy for years to come.

cyber-physical security↗
DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office: Preprint

In 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began the Energy Earthshots initiatives to accelerate breakthroughs of reliable clean energy solutions within the next 10 years. In 2022, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was asked by the DOE Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to provide analysis for developing Energy Earthshot targets for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), human-made underground reservoirs that extract thermal energy from the earth for electricity generation and/or heating applications. The Enhanced Geothermal Shot analysis is based on the technology assumptions in the 2019 GTO report GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet. For Earthshot, we updated some of the technology cost and performance assumptions based on recent technology advances and updated the EGS resource potential to include more detailed analysis. We used the updated EGS supply cost curves to forecast the amount of geothermal electricity generation that could be deployed in the US by 2050 using a capacity expansion model. The results were used to develop a cost target for EGS. On September 8th, 2022, the Enhanced Geothermal Shot was announced. Its target - reduce the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per megawatt hour by 2035. This paper summarizes the cost and resource assumptions used in the Enhanced Geothermal Shot. It describes the assumptions used in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to forecast geothermal deployment and discusses the results.

analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geothermal Collegiate Competition: Evolution and Impact

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the launch of its inaugural National Geothermal Student Competition. The competition was open to all colleges, universities, and other post-secondary institutions in the United States, and was labeled as the first-ever to address geothermal education. The GeoVision, published in 2019 by the Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), stated that improving geothermal energy education and outreach is critical in reducing risks and costs of geothermal technology deployment. The key actions included improving public education and outreach about geothermal energy and providing resources intended to attract and inform a skilled geothermal workforce. Student competitions in particular have the ability to increase awareness of renewable energy fields by engaging multi-disciplinary students in compelling design challenges to prepare them for careers in renewable energy. GTO, in partnership with an administration team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), currently supports the Geothermal Collegiate Competition (GCC), with the main objective of advancing and cultivating collegiate student knowledge and career interest in geothermal energy. The administrating team works toward growing the number of students and collegiate institutions engaged, as well as diversifying the scope of the student design challenges. The main intentions of this publication are documenting the competition’s evolution, setting a baseline for future GCC impact analysis and serving as a guide to other students’ competition design committees looking for ideas to capture and increase the interest of students in collegiate competitions.

Geothermal Collegiate Competition↗
DOE OSTI2016

US Low-Temperature EGS Resource Potential Estimate

Shapefile of shallow, low-temperature EGS resources for the United States, and accompanying paper (submitted to GRC 2016) describing the methodology and analysis. These data are part of a very rough estimate created for use in the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technology Office's Vision Study. They are not a robust estimate of low-temperature EGS resources in the U.S, and should be used accordingly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Characterizing U.S. Heat Demand for Potential Application of Geothermal Direct Use: Preprint

In this paper, we assess the U.S. demand for low-temperature thermal energy at the county resolution for four major end-use sectors: residential buildings, commercial buildings, manufacturing facilities, and agricultural facilities. Existing, publicly available data on the U.S. thermal demand market are characterized by coarse spatial resolution, with assessments typically at the state-level or larger. For many uses, these data are sufficient; however, our research was motivated by an interest in assessing the potential demand for direct use (DU) of low-temperature (30 degrees to 150 degrees C) geothermal heat. The availability and quality of geothermal resources for DU applications are highly spatially heterogeneous; therefore, to assess the potential market for these resources, it is necessary to understand the spatial variation in demand for low-temperature resources at a local resolution. This paper presents the datasets and methods we used to develop county-level estimates of the thermal demand for the residential, commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. Although this analysis was motivated by an interest in geothermal energy deployment, the results are likely to have broader applications throughout the energy industry. The county-resolution thermal demand data developed in this study for four major U.S. sectors may have far-reaching implications for building technologies, industrial processes, and various distributed renewable energy thermal resources (e.g. biomass, solar).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Characterizing U.S. Heat Demand Market for Potential Application of Geothermal Direct Use

In this paper, we assess the U.S. demand for low-temperature thermal energy at the county resolution for four major end-use sectors: residential buildings, commercial buildings, manufacturing facilities, and agricultural facilities. Existing, publicly available data on the U.S. thermal demand market are characterized by coarse spatial resolution, with assessments typically at the state-level or larger. For many uses, these data are sufficient; however, our research was motivated by an interest in assessing the potential demand for direct use (DU) of low-temperature (30 degrees to 150 degrees C) geothermal heat. The availability and quality of geothermal resources for DU applications are highly spatially heterogeneous; therefore, to assess the potential market for these resources, it is necessary to understand the spatial variation in demand for low-temperature resources at a local resolution. This paper presents the datasets and methods we used to develop county-level estimates of the thermal demand for the residential, commercial, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. Although this analysis was motivated by an interest in geothermal energy deployment, the results are likely to have broader applications throughout the energy industry. The county-resolution thermal demand data developed in this study for four major U.S. sectors may have far-reaching implications for building technologies, industrial processes, and various distributed renewable energy thermal resources (e.g. biomass, solar).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗