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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Game Theory to Qualitatively Analyze Global Relations

As the world becomes smaller, the importance of global education increases. Technological advancements have made news instantaneous. The advent of the Internet has made contact with another part of the world just a click away. Such achievements have put pressure on educational institutions to prepare students for the global community in which they already live. !~ey must not only ~e taug~~ about the world and the interactions among countries, but also, how the decIsions are made which facillta~e. these interactions and what factors might contribute to the chain reactions which might erupt from such declsl?n~. It is critical that students learn the skills of decision-making and analysis in order to be able to operate Within a world where threats and crises abound. As tomorrow's leaders, today's students must be exposed to the global world and its mechanisms and learn the tools to navigate within it.

Tacosa, Corliss A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Survey of Mathematical Structures for Lunar Networks

To sustain the current and increasing accessibility of space, a scalable communications infrastructure (i.e. the Solar System Internet, SSI) is necessary. The goal of this paper is to begin the discovery of the fundamental underlying mathematical structure of space networks to help the research community harness these structures for algorithm development and optimization. To ensure the applicability of the research, the approaches are considered through the lens of simulated scenarios inspired by the Artemis Back-to-the-Moon mission set for 2024. We note that any approach to an SSI must fit under the umbrella of Delay Tolerant Networking (DTN), due to celestial mobility, high link latencies, high variance in link latencies, disconnections, lack of end-to-end paths, and so on. These difficulties are exacerbated by the fact that the underlying structure of a space network is a time-evolving network and may experience multiple discontinuities in its topology. In this paper we propose several novel approaches to a mathematical foundation for Delay Tolerant Networking Theory that fall outside the traditional scope of temporal network theory. These techniques include methods from Topological Data Analysis, Dynamic Graph Analysis, Applied Algebraic Geometry, Probability Theory, and Game Theory. Some of these methods include tools adapted to the study of dynamic metric spaces, such as zigzag persistent homology and their higher parameter analogs. We find that several of these methods target desired engineering outcomes such as discovery and automatic sub-netting. While each approach is theoretical, they are also algorithmic in nature and offer immediate practical applications. The paper concludes with comparisons of the various methods along with suggestions for future work.

Delay tolerant networking↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cooperative Clustering Techniques For Space Network Scalability

Routing in the space internet must face many unique challenges - from unplanned disconnections and interruptions to predictable intermittent connectivity due to high network mobility and long propagation delays. NASA’s current approach to such routing is Contact Graph Routing (CGR), using a graph formed of prescheduled communication contacts to compute routes through the network. While this approach manages to tackle issues of connectivity and propagation delays, it is a global approach that requires continuous knowledge of the entire network. In a potential future Solar Space Internet (SSI) such an approach on its own cannot scale to large networks with thousands of members. In this paper we propose clustering as a solution to CGR scalability. Clustering has been used in many networking problems as a way to subdivide the network and allow for localized routing and better scalability. Using techniques from graph theory and game theory, we explore various existing clustering algorithms and adapt them to the Contact Graph Routing setting. We propose a way to combine multiple algorithms to create a Delay Tolerant Clustering Protocol (DTCP). In addition, we explore the underlying networking mechanisms such as multicast, neighbor discovery, and software defined networking that may be used to enable DTCP.

Delay Tolerant Networking↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cooperative Game Theory-based Approach to Under-frequency Load Shedding Control

This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) approach for frequency stability and control in power systems. UFLS is a crucial factor for frequency stability and control especially in power grids with high penetration of renewable energy sources and restructured power systems. Conventional UFLS methods, most of which are off-line, usually shed fixed amounts of predetermined loads based on a predetermined schedule which can lead to over or under curtailment of load. This paper presents a co-operative game theory-based two-stage strategy to effectively and precisely determine locations and amounts of loads to be shed for UFLS control. In the first stage, the total amount of loads to be shed, also referred to as deficit in generation or the disturbance power, is computed using the initial rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) referred to the equivalent inertial center. In the second stage, the Shapley value, one of the solution concepts of cooperative game theory, is used to determine load shedding amounts and locations. The proposed method is implemented on the reduced 9-bus 3-machine Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system and simulated on Real-time Digital Simulators (RTDS). The results show that the proposed UFLS approach can effectively return the system to normal state after disturbances.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2012

Colonel Blotto Games and Lancaster's Equations: A Novel Military Modeling Combination

Military strategists face a difficult task when engaged in a battle against an adversarial force. They have to predict both what tactics their opponent will employ and the outcomes of any resultant conflicts in order to make the best decision about their actions. Game theory has been the dominant technique used by analysts to investigate the possible actions that an enemy will employ. Traditional game theory can be augmented by use of Lanchester equations, a set of differential equations used to determine the outcome of a conflict. This paper demonstrates a novel combination of game theory and Lanchester equations using Colonel Blotto games. Colonel Blotto games, which are one of the oldest applications of game theory to the military domain, look at the allocation of troops and resources when fighting across multiple areas of operation. This paper demonstrates that employing Lanchester equations within a game overcomes some of practical problems faced when applying game theory.

Collins, Andrew J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Cooperative Game Theory-based Secondary Frequency Regulation in Distribution Systems

Participation of distribution systems in frequency regulation has become an important factor for grid operation after the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs). While available reserves from a single distribution system may not be sufficient for frequency regulation, aggregated reserves from several distribution systems can provide frequency regulation at grid-scale. This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based approach for secondary frequency regulation in distribution systems consisting of distributed energy resources (DERs). A two-stage strategy is proposed to effectively and precisely determine a change in active power set points of DERs following a command from system operators. In the first stage, the value or worth of each DER and their coalitions are determined using initial rates of change of frequency (ROCOF) for each DER/coalition. In the second stage, the Shapley value, one of the solution concepts of cooperative game theory, is used to determine changes in active power set points of DERs. The proposed method is implemented on several distribution systems including a modified IEEE 13-node system and modified 33-node distribution system.

Gautam, Mukesh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cooperative Clustering Techniques Applied to Contact Graph Routing

Routing in the space internet has to face many unique challenges - from unplanned disconnections and interruptions to predictable intermittent connectivity due to high network mobility and long propagation delays. NASA’s current approach to such routing is Contact Graph Routing (CGR), using a graph formed of prescheduled communication contacts to compute routes through the network. While this approach manages to tackle issues of connectivity and propagation delays, it is a global approach that requires continuous knowledge of the entire network. In a potential future Solar Space Internet (SSI) such an approach on its own cannot scale to large networks with thousands of members. In this presentation we propose clustering as a solution to CGR scalability. Clustering has been used in many networking problems as a way to subdivide the network and allow for localized routing and better scalability. Using techniques from graph theory and game theory, we explore various existing clustering algorithms and adapt them to the Contact Graph Routing setting. Finally, we propose a way to combine multiple algorithms to create a Delay Tolerant Clustering Protocol.

Yael Kirkpatrick↗
NASA NTRS1984

Design of vibration isolation systems using multiobjective optimization techniques

The design of vibration isolation systems is considered using multicriteria optimization techniques. The integrated values of the square of the force transmitted to the main mass and the square of the relative displacement between the main mass and the base are taken as the performance indices. The design of a three degrees-of-freedom isolation system with an exponentially decaying type of base disturbance is considered for illustration. Numerical results are obtained using the global criterion, utility function, bounded objective, lexicographic, goal programming, goal attainment and game theory methods. It is found that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution with proper balance of the various objective functions.

Rao, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Structural design using equilibrium programming formulations

Solutions to increasingly larger structural optimization problems are desired. However, computational resources are strained to meet this need. New methods will be required to solve increasingly larger problems. The present approaches to solving large-scale problems involve approximations for the constraints of structural optimization problems and/or decomposition of the problem into multiple subproblems that can be solved in parallel. An area of game theory, equilibrium programming (also known as noncooperative game theory), can be used to unify these existing approaches from a theoretical point of view (considering the existence and optimality of solutions), and be used as a framework for the development of new methods for solving large-scale optimization problems. Equilibrium programming theory is described, and existing design techniques such as fully stressed design and constraint approximations are shown to fit within its framework. Two new structural design formulations are also derived. The first new formulation is another approximation technique which is a general updating scheme for the sensitivity derivatives of design constraints. The second new formulation uses a substructure-based decomposition of the structure for analysis and sensitivity calculations. Significant computational benefits of the new formulations compared with a conventional method are demonstrated.

Scotti, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

What Information Theory Says about Bounded Rational Best Response

Probability Collectives (PC) provides the information-theoretic extension of conventional full-rationality game theory to bounded rational games. Here an explicit solution to the equations giving the bounded rationality equilibrium of a game is presented. Then PC is used to investigate games in which the players use bounded rational best-response strategies. Next it is shown that in the continuum-time limit, bounded rational best response games result in a variant of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory. It is then shown that for team (shared-payoff) games, this variant of replicator dynamics is identical to Newton-Raphson iterative optimization of the shared utility function.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

What Information Theory Says About Best Response and About Binding Contracts

Product Distribution (PD) theory is the information-theoretic extension of conventional full- rationality game theory to bounded rational games. Here PD theory is used to investigate games in which the players use bounded rational best-response strategies. This investigation illuminates how to determine the optimal organization chart for a corporation, or more generally how to order the sequence of moves of the players / employees so as to optimize an overall objective function. It is then shown that in the continuum-time limit, bounded rational best response games result in a variant of the replicator dynamics of evolutionary game theory. This variant is then investigated for team games, in which the players share the same utility function, by showing that such continuum- limit bounded rational best response is identical to Newton-Raphson iterative optimization of the shared utility function. Next PD theory is used to investigate changing the coordinate system of the game, i.e., changing the mapping from the joint move of the players to the arguments in the utility functions. Such a change couples those arguments, essentially by making each players move be an offered binding contract.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Beyond Mechanism Design

The field of mechanism design is concerned with setting (incentives superimposed on) the utility functions of a group of players so as to induce desirable joint behavior of those players. It arose in the context of traditional equilibrium game theory applied to games involving human players. This has led it to have many implicit restrictions, which strongly limits its scope. In particular, it ignores many issues that are crucial for systems that are large (and therefore far off-equilibrium in general) and/or composed of non-human players (e.g., computer-based agents). This also means it has concentrated on issues that are often irrelevant in those broader domains (e.g., incentive compatibility). This paper illustrates these shortcomings by reviewing some of the recent theoretical work on the design of collectives, a body of work that constitutes a substantial broadening of mechanism design. It then presents computer experiments based on a recently suggested nanotechnology testbed that demonstrates the power of that extended version of mechanism design.

Wolpert, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Multiobjective optimization in structural design with uncertain parameters and stochastic processes

The application of multiobjective optimization techniques to structural design problems involving uncertain parameters and random processes is studied. The design of a cantilever beam with a tip mass subjected to a stochastic base excitation is considered for illustration. Several of the problem parameters are assumed to be random variables and the structural mass, fatigue damage, and negative of natural frequency of vibration are considered for minimization. The solution of this three-criteria design problem is found by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It is observed that the game theory approach is superior in finding a better optimum solution, assuming the proper balance of the various objective functions. The procedures used in the present investigation are expected to be useful in the design of general dynamic systems involving uncertain parameters, stochastic process, and multiple objectives.

Rao, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Multiobjective optimization techniques for structural design

The multiobjective programming techniques are important in the design of complex structural systems whose quality depends generally on a number of different and often conflicting objective functions which cannot be combined into a single design objective. The applicability of multiobjective optimization techniques is studied with reference to simple design problems. Specifically, the parameter optimization of a cantilever beam with a tip mass and a three-degree-of-freedom vabration isolation system and the trajectory optimization of a cantilever beam are considered. The solutions of these multicriteria design problems are attempted by using global criterion, utility function, game theory, goal programming, goal attainment, bounded objective function, and lexicographic methods. It has been observed that the game theory approach required the maximum computational effort, but it yielded better optimum solutions with proper balance of the various objective functions in all the cases.

Rao, S. S.↗