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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Granger causal inference for climate change attribution

Abstract Climate change detection and attribution (D&A) is concerned with determining the extent to which anthropogenic activities have influenced specific aspects of the global climate system. D&A fits within the broader field of causal inference, the collection of statistical methods that identify cause and effect relationships. There are a wide variety of methods for making attribution statements, each of which require different types of input data and focus on different types of weather and climate events and each of which are conditional to varying extents. Some methods are based on Pearl causality (direct experimental interference) while others leverage Granger (predictive) causality, and the causal framing provides important context for how the resulting attribution conclusion should be interpreted. However, while Granger-causal attribution analyses have become more common, there is no clear statement of their strengths and weaknesses relative to Pearl-causal attribution and no clear consensus on where and when Granger-causal perspectives are appropriate. In this prospective paper, we provide a formal definition for Granger-based approaches to trend and event attribution and a clear comparison with more traditional methods for assessing the human influence on extreme weather and climate events. Broadly speaking, Granger-causal attribution statements can be constructed quickly from observations and do not require computationally-intesive dynamical experiments. These analyses also enable rapid attribution, which is useful in the aftermath of a severe weather event, and provide multiple lines of evidence for anthropogenic climate change when paired with Pearl-causal attribution. Confidence in attribution statements is increased when different methodologies arrive at similar conclusions. Moving forward, we encourage the D&A community to embrace hybrid approaches to climate change attribution that leverage the strengths of both Granger and Pearl causality.

Risser, Mark D. (ORCID:0000000319561783)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming

The annual cycle of precipitation is a fundamental aspect of the water cycle with global ramification. Climate warming induces a robust phase delay1-5 in zonal mean tropical precipitation concomitant with an amplitude enhancement6-8. Here, we find a large land ocean contrast in the phase response of precipitation annual cycle, with a phase delay over land and a phase advance over ocean as climate warms. The phase delay over land is mainly attributed to the increase in the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, while the phase advance over ocean is associated with a precipitation shift from land to ocean during the peak rainy season. Through the energetic constraint, this precipitation shift is closely related to the opposite changes in the amplitude of surface temperature annual cycle between land and ocean, both as consequences of basic climate feedback processes under global warming: weakening of the summer trade wind over the tropical ocean increases the surface temperature seasonal amplitude through evaporation, while an increase of the atmospheric effective heat capacity and surface cooling feedback induces opposite temperature amplitude changes over the tropical land. The opposite precipitation phase changes between land and ocean will have myriad implications for terrestrial/marine ecosystems and human activities.

Song, Fengfei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quest for environmentally sustainable materials: A case for animal-based fillers and fibers in polymeric biocomposites

This review explores the potential of animal-based fillers and fibers as eco-friendly alternatives to conventional synthetic ones. Examining materials such as wool, silk, feather, hair and beak, the review elucidates their chemistry, structure, properties and sources, emphasizing biodegradability and renewability. It also discusses the compatibility of these materials with polymer matrices and their mechanical, acoustic and thermal performances. Further, the review critically analyzes environmental and ethical implications, presenting challenges and opportunities in the emerging field. By addressing ecological and performance aspects, it contributes to global efforts in fostering sustainability in materials science. Future research to address gaps and enhance the design, manufacture and application of animal-based reinforcements in various industries are clearly outlined at the end of the review.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy and environmental aspects in recycling lithium-ion batteries: Concept of Battery Identity Global Passport

The emergence and dominance of lithium-ion batteries in expanding markets such as consumer electronics, electric vehicles, and renewable energy storage are driving enormous interests and investments in the battery sector. The explosively growing demand is generating a huge number of spent lithium-ion batteries, thereby urging the development of cost-effective and environmentally sustainable recycling technologies to manage end-of-life batteries. Currently, the recycling of end-of-life batteries is still in its infancy, with many fundamental and technological hurdles to overcome. Here in this paper, the authors provide an overview of the current state of battery recycling by outlining and evaluating the incentives, key issues, and recycling strategies. The authors highlight a direct recycling strategy through discussion of its benefits, processes, and challenges. Perspectives on the future energy and environmental science of this important field is also discussed with respect to a new concept introduced as the Battery Identity Global Passport (BIGP).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

The impact of kinetic and global effects on ideal ballooning 2nd stable pedestals of conventional and low aspect-ratio tokamaks

The EPED model (Snyder et al 2011 Nucl. Fusion 51 103016) has had success in describing the pedestal structure of Type-I ELM and QH-mode plasmas in tokamaks, by combining kinetic ballooning mode (KBM) and peeling–ballooning (PB) constraints. Within EPED, the KBM constraint is often approximated by a technique using calculated ideal ballooning mode (IBM) thresholds, fit to a functional form designed to capture non-local effects. It has been noted that quantitative differences between local ideal MHD and gyro-kinetic (GK) ballooning stability can be larger at low aspect ratio. KBM critical pedestals are consistent with observations in initial studies on conventional and spherical tokamaks. In this work, the application of a reduced model for the calculation of the kinetic ballooning stability boundary is presented based on a novel and newly developed gyro-fluid system (GFS) code (Staebler et al 2023 Phys. Plasmas 30 102501). GFS is observed to capture KBMs in DIII-D as well as the NSTX pedestals, opening a route to integrating this model into EPED. Finally, high but finite $n$ global ballooning modes are observed to limit the access to the local 2nd stability and thus provide a transport mechanism that constrains the pedestal evolution with $β_{p,\textrm{ped}}$. The high $n$ global ballooning stability is approximated by its ideal MHD analog using ELITE. It is shown that nearly-local high $n$ modes with $k_yρ_s$ ~ $0.25 - 0.5$ can provide a proxy for the critical $β_{p,\textrm{ped}}$ when a 2nd stable access exists on DIII-D plasmas. The use of GFS and ELITE scaling in EPED provides improved agreement to EPED1 in an initial comparison with DIII-D pedestal data.

Anastopoulos Tzanis, Michail Savvas [Oak Ridge Nat↗
DOE OSTI2024

A phase-field diffraction model for thermo-hydro-mechanical propagating fractures

This paper introduces a novel diffraction based thermo-hydraulic–mechanical (THM) model for fracture propagation using a phase-field fracture (PFF) approach. The key innovation of the THM-PFF model lies in its integrated treatment of four solution variables—displacements, phase-field, pressure, and temperature—each governed by a combination of conservation of momentum (mechanics problem), a variational inequality (constrained minimization problem), mass conservation (pressure problem), and energy conservation (temperature problem). This leads to a new formulation of a coupled variational inequality system. A major advancement is the development of an extended fixed-stress algorithm, where displacements, phase-field, pressures, and temperatures are solved in a staggered sequence. An important aspect of this work is the global coupling of pressures and temperatures across the domain using diffraction systems, with diffraction coefficients defined by material parameters weighted by the diffusive phase-field variable. To ensure robust local mass conservation, we employ enriched Galerkin finite elements (EG) for both pressure and temperature diffraction equations. By enriching the continuous Galerkin basis functions with discontinuous piecewise constants, EG accurately represents solution and parameter discontinuities while preserving local mass and energy conservation—crucial aspects for THM problems and realistic behavior. Moreover, the use of a predictor–corrector local mesh adaptivity scheme is employed, allowing the model to handle small phase-field length-scale parameters while maintaining high numerical accuracy and reasonable computational cost. Furthermore, these new model and algorithmic developments represent significant advances in the field and have been substantiated through rigorous numerical tests.

Diffraction systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid simulations of sub-cyclotron compressional and global Alfven Eigenmode stability in spherical tokamaks

A comprehensive numerical study has been conducted in order to investigate the stability of beam-driven, sub-cyclotron frequency compressional (CAE) and global (GAE) Alfven Eigenmodes in low aspect ratio plasmas for a wide range of beam parameters. The presence of CAEs and GAEs has previously been linked to anomalous electron temperature profile flattening at high beam power in NSTX experiments, prompting further examination of the conditions for their excitation. Linear simulations are performed with the hybrid MHD-kinetic initial value code HYM in order to capture the general Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance that drives the modes. Three distinct types of modes are found in simulations -- co-CAEs, cntr-GAEs, and co-GAEs -- with differing spectral and stability properties. The simulations reveal that unstable GAEs are more ubiquitous than unstable CAEs, consistent with experimental observations, as they are excited at lower beam energies and generally have larger growth rates. Local analytic theory is used to explain key features of the simulation results, including the preferential excitation of different modes based on beam injection geometry and the growth rate dependence on the beam injection velocity, critical velocity, and degree of velocity space anisotropy. The background damping rate is inferred from simulations and estimated analytically for relevant sources not present in the simulation model, indicating that co-CAEs are closer to marginal stability than modes driven by the cyclotron resonances.

Compressional Alfven Eigenmodes↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Little Change in Apparent Hydrological Sensitivity at Large CO 2 Forcing

Apparent hydrological sensitivity (η a ), the change in the global mean precipitation per degree K of global surface warming, is a key aspect of the climate system's response to increasing CO 2 forcing. To determine whether ηa depends on the forcing amplitude we analyze idealized experiments over a broad range of abrupt CO 2 forcing, from 2× to 8× preindustrial values, with two distinct climate models. We find little change in η a between 2× and 4×CO 2 , and almost no change beyond 5×CO 2 . We validate this finding under transient CO 2 forcing at 1%-per-year, up to 8×CO 2 . We further corroborate this result by analyzing the 1%-per-year output of more than 15 CMIP5/6 models. Lastly, we examine the 1,000-year long LongrunMIP model output, and again find little change in η a . This wealth of results demonstrates that η a is a very weak function of CO 2 forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Three-Dimensional Analysis of Particle Distribution on Filter Layers inside N95 Respirators by Deep Learning

The global COVID-19 pandemic has changed many aspects of daily lives. Wearing personal protective equipment, especially respirators (face masks), has become common for both the public and medical professionals, proving to be effective in preventing spread of the virus. Nevertheless, a detailed understanding of respirator filtration-layer internal structures and their physical configurations is lacking. Here, we report three-dimensional (3D) internal analysis of N95 filtration layers via X-ray tomography. Using deep learning methods, we uncover how the distribution and diameters of fibers within these layers directly affect contaminant particle filtration. The average porosity of the filter layers is found to be 89.1%. Contaminants are more efficiently captured by denser fiber regions, with fibers <1.8 μm in diameter being particularly effective, presumably because of the stronger electric field gradient on smaller diameter fibers. This study provides critical information for further development of N95-type respirators that combine high efficiency with good breathability.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid simulations of sub-cyclotron compressional and global Alfvén eigenmode stability in spherical tokamaks

A comprehensive numerical study has been conducted in order to investigate the stability of beam-driven, sub-cyclotron-frequency compressional Alfvén eigenmodes (CAEs) and global Alfvén eigenmodes (GAEs) in low-aspect-ratio plasmas for a wide range of beam parameters. The presence of CAEs and GAEs has previously been linked to anomalous electron temperature profile flattening at high beam powers in NSTX experiments, prompting a further examination of the conditions necessary for their excitation. Linear simulations have been performed with the hybrid MHD–kinetic initial value code HYM in order to capture the general Doppler-shifted cyclotron resonance that drives the modes. Additionally, three distinct types of modes were found in the simulations—co-CAEs, cntr-GAEs, and co-GAEs—with differing spectral and stability properties. The simulations revealed that unstable GAEs are more ubiquitous than unstable CAEs, which is consistent with experimental observations, as they are excited at lower beam energies and generally have larger growth rates. Local analytic theory is used to explain key features of the simulation results, including the preferential excitation of different modes based on beam injection geometry and the growth rate dependence on the beam injection velocity, critical velocity, and degree of velocity space anisotropy. The background damping rate is inferred from the simulations and analytically estimated for relevant sources absent from the simulation model, indicating that co-CAEs are closer to marginal stability than modes driven by the cyclotron resonances.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Material Resilience in Harsh Service Conditions

Resilience describes the attributes of a material that allow it to withstand or resist detrimental environmental effects degrading properties and performance. In service, materials may experience harsh or extreme conditions, but even modest thermal or load conditions experienced over a long period can degrade performance. Thus, the National Nuclear Security Administration mission requires predictive understanding of materials performance in harsh and extreme conditions over long periods. This performance is particularly relevant for applications in which replacement is impractical, impossible, or costly. This area of leadership addresses the evolution of material properties in environments that include static and dynamic stress, radiation, and chemical or thermal extremes. A particular focus is on situations when environments coexist or for which collection of experimental data is challenging or impossible. The capability to predict and control the nature and evolution of properties to allow designing resilience is a crucial aspect of mission success in national nuclear, global, and energy security.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Project Earthrise: Proceedings of the Ninth Annual Conference of in VIVO Planetary Health

The “Earthrise” photograph, taken on the 1968 Apollo 8 mission, became one of the most significant images of the 20th Century. It triggered a profound shift in environmental awareness and the potential for human unity—inspiring the first Earth Day in 1970. Taking inspiration from these events 50 years later, we initiated Project Earthrise at our 2020 annual conference of inVIVO Planetary Health. This builds on the emergent concept of planetary health, which provides a shared narrative to integrate rich and diverse approaches from all aspects of society towards shared solutions to global challenges. The acute catastrophe of the COVID-19 pandemic has drawn greater attention to many other interconnected global health, environmental, social, spiritual, and economic problems that have been underappreciated or neglected for decades. This is accelerating opportunities for greater collaborative action, as many groups now focus on the necessity of a “Great Transition”. While ambitious integrative efforts have never been more important, it is imperative to apply these with mutualistic value systems as a compass, as we seek to make wiser choices. Project Earthrise is our contribution to this important process. This underscores the imperative for creative ecological solutions to challenges in all systems, on all scales with advancing global urbanization in the digital age—for personal, environmental, economic and societal health alike. At the same time, our agenda seeks to equally consider our social and spiritual ecology as it does natural ecology. Revisiting the inspiration of “Earthrise”, we welcome diverse perspectives from across all dimensions of the arts and the sciences, to explore novel solutions and new normative values. Building on academic rigor, we seek to place greater value on imagination, kindness and mutualism as we address our greatest challenges, for the health of people, places and planet.

interdependence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges in simulating economic effects of climate change on global agricultural markets

Abstract Many approaches have been used to investigate climate change impacts on agriculture. However, several caveats remain in this field: (i) analyses focus only on a few major crops, (ii) large differences in yield impacts are observed between projections from site-based crops models and Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs), (iii) climate change impacts on livestock are rarely quantified, and (iv) several causal relations among biophysical, environmental, and socioeconomic aspects are usually not taken into account. We investigate how assumptions about these four aspects affect agricultural markets, food supply, consumer well-being, and land use at global level by deploying a large-scale socioeconomic model of the global economy with detailed representation of the agricultural sector. We find global welfare impacts several times larger when climate impacts all crops and all livestock compared to a scenario with impacts limited to major crops. At the regional level, food budget can decrease by 10 to 25% in developing countries, challenging food security. The role of land area expansion as a major source of adaptation is highlighted. Climate impacts on crop yields from site-based process crop models generate more challenging socioeconomic outcomes than those from GGCMs. We conclude that the agricultural research community should expand efforts to estimate climate impacts on many more crops and livestock. Also, careful comparison of the GGCMs and traditional site-based process crop models is needed to understand their major implications for agricultural and food markets.

Gurgel, Angelo C. (ORCID:0000000183319508)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building a better framework for evaluating human well-being impacts in global change analysis: The example of energy security

Human well-being can be greatly impacted by the global environmental and socio-economic change captured in Integrated Models of Global Change (IMGCs). Though most IMGCs address some aspects of well-being, their underlying modeling approach and ‘philosophy’ differ widely, and some key elements – like energy security – are omitted. In this report, we describe a project in which we set out to a create a framework through which the well-being dimensions of the household are connected to key drivers of socio-economic and environmental change – and how the needed metrics, data and modeling methods can be brought to bear. We focus on the well-being dimensions of energy, and lay out the necessary elements to capturing household energy security – using household energy burden as the relevant metric. We begin by showing the conceptual linkage of energy burden to environmental drivers like temperature change, using a simple and straightforward conceptual framework. We then go further to use the example of GCAM-USA to show how some key analytical features of the model can provide insight into how energy security across different groups can change along alternative pathways to sustainability. We compare our preliminary assessment of household energy burden to existing data and suggest further steps to improve and refine this analysis in future research.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

2023 Critical Materials Strategy

The global effort to curb carbon emissions is accelerating demand for clean energy technologies and the materials they rely on. Demand for these materials will only continue to grow, especially as some nations aim to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. While some major materials like steel, copper, and aluminum are already powering the fossil fuel economy, others are more minor materials with potential supply risks. These risks could jeopardize the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the desirable timeframe to avoid significant climate change. In some cases, it may be necessary to take action to improve the resilience of material supply chains and mitigate supply risks. Understanding the importance of individual materials to clean energy and the supply risks associated with them is necessary to identify which materials may serve as potential roadblocks to a clean energy future. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a series of 13 supply chain deep dive assessment reports on various energy technologies in 2022 in response to President Biden’s Executive Order on America’s Supply Chains (E.O. 14017). These reports emphasized that supply chain bottlenecks can occur at any stage of the value chain from mining and refining to component and even sub-system manufacturing. The bottlenecks are a combination of factors such as material availability, equipment availability, work force availability and quality, logistics, regulatory framework, and market conditions. These bottlenecks were worsened during the global Covid-19 pandemic. Its lingering impacts have hindered capacity expansion for material supply chains and prevented product lead-time recovery. One approach to reduce supply chain risks for the United States is to have a strong domestic manufacturing sector with a diverse set of producers. Boosting responsible domestic production would require leveraging the latest science not only in material extraction but also in developing substitutes, recycling, reuse, and remanufacturing. This report is an updated analysis of previous Critical Materials Strategy (CMS) reports published by the DOE in 2010, 2011, and 2019 based on national and global priorities, technology advancement, and technology adoption trends. Like the CMS reports, this analysis presents the results of a formal material criticality assessment to identify which materials are critical to the continued deployment of clean energy technologies globally. The analysis in this report leveraged the DOE supply chain deep dive assessments to develop the initial list of materials to evaluate. This DOE Critical Materials Assessment (CMA) is conducted independently of criticality assessments performed by other U.S. government agencies, such as that conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This analysis complements the USGS critical minerals determination in three aspects. First, the DOE assessment is performed from a global perspective, while the USGS analysis focusses on the importance of minerals to the U.S. economy. Second, this report focuses on the importance of materials to clean energy technologies, rather than to the economy in general. Lastly, this study is forward looking to 2035 based on clean energy deployment scenarios, whereas the USGS assessment is retrospective. Materials evaluated in this report that do not appear in the USGS Critical Minerals List include copper, uranium, electrical steel, and SiC. A draft version of this report received ~80 public comments related to supporting data and methodological improvement. Those comments have been incorporated as much as possible where appropriate. Highlights of findings from this 2023 CMA include: Rare earth materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) used in magnets in electric vehicle (EV) motors and wind turbine generators continue to be critical. While dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb) are both heavy rare earth elements that serve the same function in magnets, the criticality of Tb is slightly lower than that for Dy in the short term due to the widespread use of Dy in high-grade magnets and Tb’s present role as a substitute. Similarly, praseodymium (Pr) is critical in the medium term but only near critical in the short term because it is more substitutable in magnets than neodymium (Nd); Materials used in batteries for EVs and stationary storage are now considered to be critical. While cobalt (Co) was found to be critical in this and previous reports, lithium (Li) becomes critical in the medium term due to its broader use in various battery chemistries and the rampant growth of the EV industry. Natural graphite is a new addition in this assessment and is also found to be critical; Platinum group metals used in hydrogen electrolyzers, such as platinum (Pr) and iridium (Ir), are critical due to an increased focus on hydrogen technologies to achieve net zero carbon emissions, while those used in catalytic converters, such as rhodium (Rh) and palladium (Pd), were screened out due to the decreased importance of catalytic converters in the medium term; Gallium (Ga) continues to be critical due to its use in light-emitting diodes (LEDs). In addition, the use of Ga has increased in magnet manufacturing and in semiconductor in forms such as gallium arsenide (GaAs) or gallium nitride (GaN); Major materials like Aluminum (Al), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), and silicon (Si) move from noncritical in the short term to near critical in the medium term due to their importance in electrification; Electrical steel is near critical due to its use in transformers for the grid and electric motors in EVs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗