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Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF

Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.

Hou, Arthur↗

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗

Current Trends in Satellite Laser Ranging

Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) techniques are used to accurately measure the distance from ground stations to retroreflectors on satellites and the moon. SLR is one of the fundamental techniques that define the international Terrestrial Reference Frame (iTRF), which is the basis upon which we measure many aspects of global change over space, time, and evolving technology. It is one of the fundamental techniques that define at a level of precision of a few mm the origin and scale of the ITRF. Laser Ranging provides precision orbit determination and instrument calibration/validation for satellite-borne altimeters for the better understanding of sea level change, ocean dynamics, ice budget, and terrestrial topography. Laser ranging is also a tool to study the dynamics of the Moon and fundamental constants. Many of the GNSS satellites now carry retro-reflectors for improved orbit determination, harmonization of reference frames, and in-orbit co-location and system performance validation. The GNSS Constellations will be the means of making the reference frame available to worldwide users. Data and products from these measurements support key aspects of the GEOSS 10-Year implementation Plan adopted on February 16, 2005, The ITRF has been identified as a key contribution of the JAG to GEOSS and the ILRS makes a major contribution for its development since its foundation. The ILRS delivers weekly additional realizations that are accumulated sequentially to extend the ITRF and the Earth Orientation Parameter (EOP) series with a daily resolution. Additional products are currently under development such as precise orbits of satellites, EOP with daily availability, low-degree gravitational harmonics for studies of Earth dynamics and kinematics, etc. SLR technology continues to evolve toward the next generation laser ranging systems as programmatic requirements become more stringent. Ranging accuracy is improving as higher repetition rate, narrower pulse lasers and faster detectors are implemented. Automation and pass interleaving at some stations is already expanding temporal coverage. Web-based safety keys are allowing the SLR network stations to range to optically vulnerable satellites. Some stations are experimenting with two-wavelength operation as a means of better understanding the atmospheric refraction and with very low power laser to improve eye-safety conditions. New retroreflector designs are improving the signal link and enable daylight ranging. Dramatic improvements have also been made with lunar ranging with the new APOLLO Site in New ?Mexico, USA and the upgraded lunar station "MEO" in Grasse,

Pearlman, M. R.↗

Relations between ergodicity and observability

Aspects of global observability (GO) for some standard examples of chaotic systems are considered, the underlying philosophy being that such systems should be easy to observe and should be observed by large classes of scalar functions. Consideration is given to GO for piecewise monotone maps of the interval (a standard example of a chaotic system). Attention is then given to GO for ergodic translations on compact (metrizable) topological groups; the most familiar examples are the irrational translation flows on the n-torus.

Drager, L.↗

Predicting the earth's future

The development of earth system models that will simulate the past and present and provide predictions of future conditions is essential now that human activities have the potential to induce changes in the planetary environment. Critical aspects of global change include its pervasiveness and ubiquity, its distribution in several distinct time-scale bands, and the interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and the terrestrial and marine biospheres. A model of the earth system on the scale of decades to centuries, developed by the Earth System Science Committee (NASA) with the strategy of dividing by time scale rather than discipline, is presented and the requirements for observations to support the implementation of the model are reviewed.

Dutton, J. A.↗

Solar activity influences on atmospheric electricity and on some structures in the middle atmosphere

Only processes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere are reviewed. General aspects of global atmospheric electricity are summarized in Chapter 3 of NCR (1986); Volland (1984) has outlined the overall problems of atmospheric electrodynamics; and Roble and Hays (1982) published a summary of solar effects on the global circuit. The solar variability and its atmospheric effects (overview by Donelly et al, 1987) and the solar-planetary relationships (survey by James et al. 1983) are so extremely complex that only particular results and selected papers of direct relevance or historical importance are compiled herein.

Reiter, Reinhold↗

Water-Ice Clouds in the LMDs Martian General Circulation Model

The interest for Martian water ice clouds has recently taken a new extent given their likely involvement both in climate and in the hydrological cycle. Previous related microphysical studies have already discussed the complex interactions between airborne dust and clouds [2]. Whereas water ice mantles upon dust cores enhance sedimentation rates and thus possibly change the vertical distribution of dust and water, the advection of clouds by winds could also modulate the geographical distribution of volatiles. Within this context, only 3D modeling based on the use of Martian General Circulation Models (MGCM) is able to give us a consistent clue of the global climatic aspects of Martian clouds.

F Montmessin↗

U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan

The vision document provides an overview of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) long-term strategic plan to enhance scientific understanding of global climate change.This document is a companion to the comprehensive Strategic Plan for the Climate Change Science Program. The report responds to the Presidents direction that climate change research activities be accelerated to provide the best possible scientific information to support public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues.The plan also responds to Section 104 of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which mandates the development and periodic updating of a long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science and Technology Council.This is the first comprehensive update of a strategic plan for U.S. global change and climate change research since the origal plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program was adopted at the inception of the program in 1989.

Climate change↗

Modeling and Assimilating Ocean Color Radiances

Radiances are the source of information from ocean color sensors to produce estimates of biological and geochemical constituents. They potentially provide information on various other aspects of global biological and chemical systems, and there is considerable work involved in deriving new information from these signals. Each derived product, however, contains errors that are derived from the application of the radiances, above and beyond the radiance errors. A global biogeochemical model with an explicit spectral radiative transfer model is used to investigate the potential of assimilating radiances. The results indicate gaps in our understanding of radiative processes in the oceans and their relationships with biogeochemical variables. Most important, detritus optical properties are not well characterized and produce important effects of the simulated radiances. Specifically, there does not appear to be a relationship between detrital biomass and its optical properties, as there is for chlorophyll. Approximations are necessary to get beyond this problem. In this reprt we will discuss the challenges in modeling and assimilation water-leaving radiances and the prospects for improving our understanding of biogeochemical process by utilizing these signals.

Gregg, Watson↗

Navigation and the Mars global surveyor mission

Navigation and trajectory planning aspects for the Mars global surveyor (MGS) mission, are discussed. In the first 205 days of the mission since launch on 7 November July 1996, two trajectory maneuvers were successfully completed. The third maneuver was cancelled due to the accuracy of the targeting of the previous maneuvers. The final trajectory correction maneuver will occur on arrival in order to adjust the arrival conditions for the Mars orbit insertion maneuver. The planned capture orbit is highly elliptical with a 45 hour orbital period, a 300 km periapsis altitude and a descending node. Two-way coherent Doppler and time delay measurements are acquired in the X-band by the Deep Space network and used to navigate the spacecraft. After capture, the orbit will be circularized by aerobraking and propulsive maneuvers. The three-phase aerobraking maneuver is described. During the 687 earth-day observation period, navigation will maintain a 2:00 pm descending node, sun-synchronous low altitude, short periodic orbit. Ground track coverage will remain almost uniform in order to maximize data acquisition.

Esposito, P.↗

Some aspects of understanding changes in the global carbon cycle

The collective character of carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and other pools is partially revealed by comparing the record of CO2 concentration beginning in 1958 with estimates of the releases from fossil fuels during this period. In analyzing the secular increase in CO2 concentration induced by fossil fuel use, the atmosphere is generally treated as a single well-mixed reservoir; however, to study finer structure in the CO2 records, the influence of atmospheric circulation must be more carefully considered. The rate of carbon uptake by the oceans, the primary sink for fossil fuel CO2, is assessed more reliably than influences on the atmosphere due to interactions with other pools. Models of the global carbon cycle are being substantially refined while data that reflect the response of the cycle to fossil fuel use and other perturbations are being extended.

Emanuel, W. R.↗

The global sulfur cycle

The results of the planetary biology microbial ecology's 1984 Summer Research Program, which examined various aspects of the global sulfur cycle are summarized. Ways in which sulfur flows through the many living and chemical species that inhabit the surface of the Earth were investigated. Major topics studied include: (1) sulfur cycling and metabolism of phototropic and filamentous sulfur bacteria; (2) sulfur reduction in sediments of marine and evaporite environments; (3) recent cyanobacterial mats; (4) microanalysis of community metabolism in proximity to the photic zone in potential stromatolites; and (5) formation and activity of microbial biofilms on metal sulfides and other mineral surfaces. Relationships between the global sulfur cycle and the understanding of the early evolution of the Earth and biosphere and current processes that affect global habitability are stressed.

Sagan, D.↗

The Interaction of Global Biochemical Cycles

The global biosphere in an exceedingly complex system. To gain an understanding of its structure and dynamic features, it is necessary not only to increase the knowledge about the detailed processes but also to develop models of how global interactions take place. Attempts to analyze the detailed physical, chemical and biological processes in this context need to be guided by an advancement of understanding of the latter. It is necessary to develop a strategy of data gathering that severs both these purposes simultaneously. The following papers deal with critical aspects in the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur in details as well as the cycle of water and the flow of energy in the Earth's environment. The objective is to set partly the foundation for the development of mathematical models that allow exploration of the coupled dynamics of the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, as well as energy and water flux.

Moore, B., III↗

Impact of Satellite Atmospheric Motion Vectors In the GMAO GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation System

The WMO and THORPEX co-sponsored fifth Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on Numerical Weather Prediction will be organized by the Expert Team on the Evolution of the Global Observing System in Sedona, Arizona, United States, from 22 to 25 May 2012. Participants are expected to come from all the major NWP centres which are active in the area of impact studies. The workshop will be conducted in English. As for the first four workshops it is planned to produce a workshop report to be published as a WMO Technical Report that will include the papers submitted by the participants. The previous four workshops in this series took place in Geneva {April 1997), Toulouse (March 2000), Alpbach (March 2004) and Geneva (May 2008). Results from Observing System Experiments (OSEs), both with global and regional aspects were presented and conclusions were drawn concerning the contributions of the various components of the observing system to the large scale forecast skill at short and medium range (Workshop Proceedings were published as WMO World Weather Watch Technical Reports TD No. 868, 1034, 1228 and 1450). Since then, some significant changes and developments have affected the global observing system and more efforts have been devoted to meso-scale observing and assimilation systems. There has also been a trend toward using techniques other than OSEs to document data impact, such as adjoint-based sensitivity to observations or ensemble-based sensitivity. Field experiments have been carried out, in particular through the THORPEX project, and the use of targeted data has been assessed.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Thorium Enrichment within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane: The Record in Surface Deposits and Significance for Thermal Evolution

The nearside-farside structural and compositional asymmetry of the Moon was recognized during the early days of Apollo and the suggestion was made that the migration of mantle melts to the nearside would have been favored by early Earth-Moon orbital dynamics and nonuniform planetesimal bombardment. Recent global geochemical mapping by Lunar Prospector has provided additional data, particularly in the Th distribution, that strongly supports the notion of global, preferential melt migration, which led in part to the development of the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) [2-5]. The surface distribution of Th was then reshaped by basin-forming impacts into the PKT, especially the Imbrium impact, which was the last and largest to strike in that region. The Imbrium event probably excavated material from a partially molten zone deep in the crust and delivered Th-rich ejecta Moon-wide. A fundamentally important but poorly understood aspect of the global Th distribution is the concentration of Th in the subsurface rocks of the PKT crustal section. For example, depending on what assumptions are made, the PKT crustal section, which is about 12% of the crust and only about 1.2% of the whole Moon, may contain as much as 40% of the Moon's entire Th budget. Such a distribution of Th and related heat-producing elements would have had a profound effect on melting, mixing, and the thermal evolution of the PKT and the underlying mantle. In this abstract, we examine the compositions of terra formations within the PKT and relate them to some of the Th-bearing rock types known from the Apollo samples. It appears that the existence of the PKT may be a unifying concept for a number of petrologic and geochemical observations. From the initial Lunar Prospector gamma-ray spectrometer data(-about 5 deg. resolution) and from the preliminary low-orbit data, there appears to be a number of relatively hotter "spots" within the PKT in terms of Th concentration. Some of the hotter spots correspond to intermediate-sized craters that penetrated volcanic flows and excavated Th-rich, submare material, such as Aristarchus, Aristillus, and Kepler. Other spots, however, correspond to surficial formations that constitute mainly rough topography associated with Imbrium ejecta or circum-Imbrium ring mountains and do not necessarily imply the presence of exposed KREEP basalts. The Fra Mauro Formation south of Copernicus toward the Apollo 14 site and regions of the Alpes Formation southwest of Copernicus in the vicinity of Reinhold lie within the most prominent hotspot; here them concentration is consistent with that found in the Apollo 14 soils (about 12-13 ppm) when the proportions of Fra Mauro Formation and mare basalt are considered. The area between Copernicus and Kepler and northwest of Copernicus in terra extending to the Carpathians is similarly enriched in Th. The Apennines from Eratosthenes toward the Apollo 15 site contain elevated Th concentrations, as does the northwestern quadrant of circum-Imbrium terra, especially between (but not including) La Condamine and Plato, and in the region northwest of the Jura mountains extending southward past Mairan to the Gruithuisen-Domes region. Within the main topographic rim of Imbrium, the Apennine Bench formation south of Archimedes appears to have relatively elevated Th concentration. Comparing the map of Th distribution to a digital-elevation map derived from Clementine altimetry, it appears that most of the areas richest in Th occur where the surface is elevated relative to the majority of PKT volcanic plains. Not all rough topography within the PKT has such elevated Th, however. Based on an analysis of the 5 deg. data, and using the calibration of, the mean Th concentrations for mainly volcanic-resurfaced terrain and rugged terrain are similar (about 5.5 ppm). This occurs in part because craters that penetrated mare basalt excavated Th-rich material. Even so, there appear to be extensive areas of volcanic resurfacing that have no obvious extrinsic source of Th-rich material, suggesting that the basalts, themselves, may contain as much as 5-6 ppm Th. High-FeO concentrations (18 to >20 wt%) indicate that these are not KREEP basalts but mare basalts. If so, this is surprising because most of the Apollo-sampled mare basalts have very low-Th (typically <2 ppm). A variety of Th-rich materials occur in the sample collection, particularly in the samples from the Apollo 12,14, and 15 sites. The most abundant Th-rich rock types are the mafic impact-melt breccias, which although found at all sites, are most abundant at Apollo 14, where they dominate the rock samples and make up some 40% of the rock particles in the soil. These have Th concentrations ranging up to about 30 ppm and averaging about 18 ppm. The Apollo 14 soils contain about 13 ppm Th, reflecting the high abundance of this melt-breccia component. At the nearby Apollo 12 site, the rocks consist mainly of mare basalts, and these have low-Th concentrations, mostly <1 ppm. Among the nonmare rocks, however, a few such as complex breccia 12013 contain a variety of evolved lithologies and represent potential sources of Th-rich components ranging from 17 to 50 ppm. A single fragment of KREEP basalt from the Apollo 12 soil contains about 50 ppm Th. Despite the identification of highly Th-enriched lithologic components at the Apollo 12 site, the soils there vary linearly in composition so as to extrapolate to a moderate Th KREEP-basalt component or a composition like that of the Fra Mauro formation as reflected by Apollo 14 soil (14 ppm Th at 10 wt% FeO). The nearby Lansberg Crater (39-km diameter) is a likely candidate to have delivered submare material such as buried Fra Mauro or Alpes material to the Apollo 12 site. Additional information contained in the original.

Jolliff, B. L.↗

MHD modelling of the earth's magnetosphere

Attention is given to the shock capturing technique, nonuniform grid system, and multiple time scale problem aspects of a global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere that uses numerical methods. Because of the fast Alfven waves near the earth, the model is more difficult to solve than problems of hydrodynamic flow past bodies. The Rusanov (1962) scheme, which is a variant of the Lax (1954) method that maintains viscosity at a minimum value except where a large one is required, is used. The magnetosphere shape obtained by these means is noted.

Wu, C. C.↗

The formation of low-mass stars

Visible to millimeter wavelength observations of the global and individual aspects of low-mass star formation are discussed. Infrared and millimeter-wave techniques reveal large collections of dust-embedded young stellar objects associated with the densest regions of molecular clouds. Special attention is given to studies of the Taurus-Auriga and Rho Opiuchi molecular cloud complexes. Properties such as the bolometric luminosities and evolutionary states of young objects can be determined by modeling the 1-100-micron spectral energy distributions.

Wilking, Bruce A.↗

Experiments on Thermal Convection in Rotating Spherical Shells With Radial Gravity: The Geophysical Fluid Flow Cell

Experiments designed to study the fluid dynamics of buoyancy driven circulations in rotating spherical shells were conducted on the United States Microgravity Laboratory 2 spacelab mission. These experiments address several aspects of prototypical global convection relevant to large scale motions on the Sun, Earth, and on the giant planets. The key feature is the consistent modeling of radially directed gravity in spherical geometry by using dielectric polarization forces. Imagery of the planforms of thermally driven flows for rapidly-rotating regimes shows an initial separation and eventual merger of equatorial and polar convection as the heating (i.e. the Rayleigh number) is increased. At low rotation rates, multiple-states of motion for the same external parameters were observed.

Hart, John E.↗