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At least 37 records · Page 2

ADAPTIVE GROUP TESTING WITH MISMATCHED MODELS

Accurate detection of infected individuals is one of the critical steps in stopping any pandemic. When the underlying infection rate of the disease is low, testing people in groups, instead of testing each individual in the population, can be more efficient. In this work, we consider noisy adaptive group testing design with specific test sensitivity and specificity that select the optimal group given previous test results based on pre-selected utility function. As in prior studies on group testing, we model this problem as a sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) to adaptively design the groups for each test. We analyze the required number of group tests when using the updated posterior on the infection status and the corresponding Mutual Information (MI) as our utility function for selecting new groups. More importantly, we study how the potential bias on the ground-truth noise of group tests may affect the group testing sample complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

eDNAjoint: An R package for interpreting paired or semi‐paired environmental DNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework

Abstract Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is increasingly used in surveys of species distribution as a potentially sensitive and efficient monitoring method. Yet access to modelling tools designed specifically for interpreting this new data type lags behind its ubiquity. While occupancy modelling software has dominated the analytical landscape for eDNA data analysis of single species, this type of model may not always be the most appropriate. The rate of eDNA detection often corresponds to species density, rather than just occupancy, and researchers often have access to observations from non‐genetic sampling methods at the same sites. To provide users access to a modelling framework designed to maximize the use of all available data, we developed an R package, eDNAjoint . The package provides an easy‐to‐use interface for fitting a ‘joint’ model that integrates data from paired or semi‐paired eDNA and traditional surveys in a Bayesian framework. The model can be used to estimate parameters like the probability of a false positive eDNA detection and mean catch rate at a site, and the package allows access to multiple model variations and Bayesian prior customization. Additional functionality can be used for model selection, summarising posteriors and comparing the relative sensitivities of the two survey methods. We demonstrate the use of eDNAjoint by fitting a variation of the model with site‐level covariates that scale the sensitivity of eDNA sampling relative to traditional sampling. The example workflow uses binary eDNA and seine count data for the endangered tidewater goby ( Eucyclogobius newberryi ) from a study by Schmelzle and Kinziger (2016). This use case includes a prior sensitivity analysis and an evaluation of the relationship between detection rates and environmental variables. eDNAjoint has the potential to greatly increase the range of users who will be able to rigorously analyse eDNA and traditional survey data in a Bayesian framework, understand if and how eDNA can improve monitoring practices, and gain confidence in the interpretability of eDNA data.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Impact of acute temperature and air pollution exposures on adult lung function: A panel study of asthmatics

Background Individuals with respiratory conditions, such as asthma, are particularly susceptible to adverse health effects associated with higher levels of ambient air pollution and temperature. This study evaluates whether hourly levels of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) and dry bulb globe temperature (DBGT) are associated with the lung function of adult participants with asthma. Methods and findings Global positioning system (GPS) location, respiratory function (measured as forced expiratory volume at 1 second (FEV 1 )), and self-reports of asthma medication usage and symptoms were collected as part of the Exposure, Location, and Lung Function (ELF) study. Hourly ambient PM 2.5 and DBGT exposures were estimated by integrating air quality and temperature public records with time-activity patterns using GPS coordinates for each participant (n = 35). The relationships between acute PM 2.5 , DBGT, rescue bronchodilator use, and lung function collected in one week periods and over two seasons (summer/winter) were analyzed by multivariate regression, using different exposure time frames. In separate models, increasing levels in PM 2.5 , but not DBGT, were associated with rescue bronchodilator use. Conversely DBGT, but not PM 2.5 , had a significant association with FEV 1 . When DBGT and PM 2.5 exposures were placed in the same model, the strongest association between cumulative PM 2.5 exposures and the use of rescue bronchodilator was identified at the 0–24 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.012–1.049; p-value = 0.001) and 0–48 hours (OR = 1.030; 95% CI = 1.013–1.057; p-value = 0.001) prior to lung function measure. Conversely, DBGT exposure at 0 hours (β = 3.257; SE = 0.879; p-value>0.001) and 0–6 hours (β = 2.885; SE = 0.903; p-value = 0.001) hours before a reading were associated with FEV 1 . No significant interactions between DBGT and PM 2.5 were observed for rescue bronchodilator use or FEV 1 . Conclusions Short-term increases in PM 2.5 were associated with increased rescue bronchodilator use, while DBGT was associated with higher lung function (i.e. FEV 1 ). Further studies are needed to continue to elucidate the mechanisms of acute exposure to PM 2.5 and DBGT on lung function in asthmatics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Interpretability in Generative Modeling: Statistically Disentangled Latent Spaces Guided by Generative Factors in Scientific Datasets

This study addresses the challenge of statistically extracting generative factors from complex, high-dimensional datasets in unsupervised or semi-supervised settings. We investigate encoder-decoder-based generative models for nonlinear dimensionality reduction, focusing on disentangling low-dimensional latent variables corresponding to independent physical factors. Introducing Aux-VAE, a novel architecture within the classical Variational Autoencoder framework, we achieve disentanglement with minimal modifications to the standard VAE loss function by leveraging prior statistical knowledge through auxiliary variables. These variables guide the shaping of the latent space by aligning latent factors with learned auxiliary variables. We validate the efficacy of Aux-VAE through comparative assessments on multiple datasets, including astronomical simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Potent transmission-blocking monoclonal antibodies from naturally exposed individuals target a conserved epitope on Plasmodium falciparum Pfs230

Pfs230 is essential for Plasmodium falciparum transmission to mosquitoes and is the protein targeted by the most advanced malaria-transmission-blocking vaccine candidate. Prior understanding of functional epitopes on Pfs230 is based on two monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with moderate transmission-reducing activity (TRA), elicited from subunit immunization. Here, we screened the B cell repertoire of two naturally exposed individuals possessing serum TRA and identified five potent mAbs from sixteen Pfs230 domain-1-specific mAbs. Structures of three potent and three low-activity antibodies bound to Pfs230 domain 1 revealed four distinct epitopes. Highly potent mAbs from natural infection recognized a common conformational epitope that is highly conserved across P. falciparum field isolates, while antibodies with negligible TRA derived from natural infection or immunization recognized three distinct sites. Our study provides molecular blueprints describing P. falciparum TRA, informed by contrasting potent and non-functional epitopes elicited by natural exposure and vaccination.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A split luciferase system for studying coronavirus Mpro dimerization in vitro and in living cells

The main protease enzyme (Mpro) of coronaviruses cleaves the viral polyprotein into functional units essential for virus replication. Prior work has demonstrated that Mpro functions as a homodimer. However, studies on the mechanism of dimerization have been challenging because the purified protease is mostly dimeric, dimerization-defective mutants lack proteolytic activity, and robust cell-based assays have yet to be reported. To enable work on Mpro dimerization, we have developed a quantitative luciferase-based SARS-CoV-2 (SARS2) Mpro biosensor that accurately reports protein dimerization in living cells and, upon purification, also in vitro. Co-transfection of cells with a construct expressing Mpro fused to the 18 kDa LargeBiT of luciferase (LgBiT) and a second construct with Mpro fused to the 1 kDa SmallBiT of luciferase (SmBiT) results in a reconstitution of luciferase activity in a dose-dependent manner that requires conserved residues within the dimerization interface. Proteolytic activity is dispensable for dimerization and, uniquely, a C145A catalytically inactive mutant exhibits enhanced dimerization signal likely due to lower cytotoxicity. Mpro enzymes from multiple different coronaviruses also dimerize in this system, indicating mechanistic conservation. Interestingly, this dimerization biosensor also provides a quantitative read-out of inhibitor-facilitated dimerization. Covalent SARS2 Mpro inhibitors such as nirmatrelvir cause a 3- to 5-fold increase in luciferase activity. Together with corroborating structural, biophysical, and molecular dynamics experiments, our studies support a model in which covalent Mpro inhibitors such as nirmatrelvir simultaneously block catalytic activity and induce allosteric stabilization of the dimeric complex.

SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro/3CLpro)↗

Performance Evaluation of Distributed Energy Resource Management Systems Using Software- and Hardware-in-the-Loop

Distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS) are an important emerging technology for coordinating distributed energy resources (DERs) integrated in power distribution networks. These solutions implement a software platform to monitor, control, and coordinate DERs in real time to provide aggregate grid services to the electric utility or distribution system operator. To move DERMS technology forward, research and performance validation in a laboratory environment are needed to ensure proper function of DERMS prior to field deployment. This presentation presents a generic hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform to evaluate performance of DERMS using software-in-the-loop (SIL) and power HIL. The platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including accurate modeling of full-scale distribution systems, DERMS software controllers, and at-power distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar and battery inverters. Two case studies are presented to demonstrate how the platform can be used independently as an integrated development and validation approach for different projects. Laboratory testing results are included to showcase the voltage regulation performance of each study and the benefits of implementing such a platform for DERMS evaluation.

DERMS↗

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparing correlation components and approximations in Hartree–Fock and Kohn–Sham theories via an analytical test case study

The asymmetric Hubbard dimer is a model that allows for explicit expressions of the Hartree–Fock (HF) and Kohn–Sham (KS) states as analytical functions of the external potential, Δv, and of the interaction strength, U. We use this unique circumstance to establish a rigorous comparison between the individual contributions to the correlation energies stemming from the two theories in the {U, Δv} parameter space. Within this analysis of the Hubbard dimer, we observe a change in the sign of the HF kinetic correlation energy, compare the indirect repulsion energies, and derive an expression for the “traditional” correlation energy, i.e., the one that corrects the HF estimate, in a pure site-occupation function theory spirit [Eq. (45)]. Next, we test the performances of the Liu–Burke and the Seidl–Perdew–Levy functionals, which model the correlation energy based on its weak- and strong-interaction limit expansions and can be used for both the traditional and the KS correlation energies. Further, our results show that, in the Hubbard dimer setting, they typically work better for the HF reference, despite having been originally devised for KS. These conclusions are somewhat in line with prior assessments of these functionals on various chemical datasets. However, the Hubbard dimer model allows us to show the extent of the error that may occur in using the strong-interaction ingredient for the KS reference in place of the one for the HF reference, as has been carried out in most of the prior assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Psb27, a photosystem II assembly protein, enables quenching of excess light energy during its participation in the PSII lifecycle

Photosystem II (PSII), the enzyme responsible for oxidizing water into molecular oxygen, undergoes a complex lifecycle during which multiple assembly proteins transiently bind to and depart from PSII assembly intermediate complexes. Psb27 is one such protein. It associates with the CP43 chlorophyll-binding subunit of PSII to form a Psb27-PSII sub-complex that constitutes 7–10% of the total PSII pool. Psb27 remains bound to PSII assembly intermediates and dissociates prior to the formation of fully functional PSII. In this study, we compared a series of Psb27 mutant strains in the cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 with varied expression levels of Psb27: wild type (WT); psb27 genetic deletion (Del27), genetically complemented psb27 (Com27); and over-expressed Psb27 (OE27). The Del27 strain demonstrated decreased non-photochemical fluorescence quenching, while the OE27 strain showed increased non-photochemical quenching and tolerance to fluctuating light conditions. Multiple flashes and fluorescence decay analysis indicated that OE27 has the least affected maximum PSII quantum yield of the mutants. OE27 also displayed a minimal impact on the half-life of the fast component of QA – reoxidation over multiple flashes, indicating robust PSII function. Further, we propose that the close association between Psb27 and CP43, and the absence of a fully functional manganese cluster in the Psb27-PSII complex create a PSII sub-population that dissipates excitation energy prior to its recruitment into the functional PSII pool. Efficient energy dissipation prevents damage to this pre-PSII pool and allows for efficient PSII repair and maturation. Participation of Psb27 in the PSII life cycle ensures high-quality PSII assembly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Sensitivity of Variational Bayesian Neural Network Performance to Hyperparameters

In scientific applications, predictive modeling is often of limited use without accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) to indicate when a model may be extrapolating or when more data needs to be collected. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) produce predictive uncertainty by propagating uncertainty in neural network (NN) weights and offer the promise of obtaining not only an accurate predictive model but also accurate UQ. However, in practice, obtaining accurate UQ with BNNs is difficult due in part to the approximations used for model training (such as those made in variational inference) and in part to the need to choose a suitable set of hyperparameters; these hyperparameters outnumber those needed for traditional NNs and often have opaque effects on the results. We aim to shed light on the effects of hyperparameter choices for variational BNNs by performing a global sensitivity analysis of variational BNN performance under varying hyperparameter settings. Our results indicate that many of the hyperparameters interact with each other to affect both predictive accuracy and UQ. For improved usage of variational BNNs in real-world applications, we suggest that thorough hyperparameter tuning, including tuning of prior hyperparameters and loss function parameters, is essential for accurate UQ in variational BNNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Weak Form Scientific Machine Learning: Test Function Construction for System Identification

Weak form Scientific Machine Learning (WSciML) is a recently developed framework for data-driven modeling and scientific discovery. It leverages the weak form of equation error residuals to provide enhanced noise robustness in system identification via convolving model equations with test functions, reformulating the problem to avoid direct differentiation of data. The performance, however, relies on wisely choosing a set of compactly supported test functions. In this work, we mathematically motivate a novel data-driven method for constructing Single-scale-Local reference functions for creating the set of test functions. Our approach numerically approximates the integration error introduced by the quadrature and identifies the support size for which the error is minimal, without requiring access to the model parameter values. Through numerical experiments across various models, noise levels, and temporal resolutions, we demonstrate that the selected supports consistently align with regions of minimal parameter estimation error. We also compare the proposed method against the strategy for constructing Multi-scale-Global (and orthogonal) test functions introduced in our prior work, demonstrating the improved computational efficiency.

FOS: Computer and information sciences↗

Octofitter: Fast, Flexible, and Accurate Orbit Modeling to Detect Exoplanets

As next-generation imaging instruments and interferometers search for planets closer to their stars, they must contend with increasing orbital motion and longer integration times. These compounding effects make it difficult to detect faint planets but also present an opportunity. Increased orbital motion makes it possible to move the search for planets into the orbital domain, where direct images can be freely combined with the radial velocity and proper motion anomaly, even without a confirmed detection in any single epoch. In this paper, we present a fast and differentiable multimethod orbit-modeling and planet detection code called Octofitter. This code is designed to be highly modular and allows users to easily adjust priors, change parameterizations, and specify arbitrary function relations between the parameters of one or more planets. Octofitter further supplies tools for examining model outputs including prior and posterior predictive checks and simulation-based calibration. We demonstrate the capabilities of Octofitter on real and simulated data from different instruments and methods, including HD 91312, simulated JWST/NIRISS aperture masking interferometry observations, radial velocity curves, and grids of images from the Gemini Planet Imager. We show that Octofitter can reliably recover faint planets in long sequences of images with arbitrary orbital motion. This publicly available tool will enable the broad application of multiepoch and multimethod exoplanet detection, which could improve how future targeted ground- and space-based surveys are performed. Finally, its rapid convergence makes it a useful addition to the existing ecosystem of tools for modeling the orbits of directly imaged planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurements of differential two-particle number and transverse momentum correlation functions in pp collisions at $\sqrt{\textit{s}}$ = 13 TeV

Differential two-particle normalized cumulants (R 2 ) and transverse momentum correlations (P 2 ) are measured as a function of the relative pseudorapidity and azimuthal angle difference (Δη, Δφ) of charged particle pairs in minimum bias pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The measurements use charged hadrons in the pseudorapidity region of |η| < 0.8 and the transverse momentum range 0.2 < p T < 2.0 in order to focus on soft multiparticle interactions and to complement prior measurements of these correlation functions in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions. The correlation functions are reported for both unlike-sign and like-sign pairs and their charge-independent and charge-dependent combinations. Both the R 2 and P 2 measured in pp collisions exhibit features qualitatively similar to those observed in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions. The Δη and Δφ root mean square widths of the near-side peak of the correlation functions are evaluated and compared with those observed in p–Pb and Pb–Pb collisions and show smooth evolution with the multiplicity of charged particles produced in the collision. The comparison of the measured correlation functions with predictions from PYTHIA8 shows that this model qualitatively captures their basic structure and characteristics but feature important differences. In addition, the R$^{CD}_{2}$ is used to determine the charge balance function of hadrons produced within the detector acceptance of the measurements. The integral of the balance function is found to be compatible with those reported by a previous measurement in Pb–Pb collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scale dependence in functional equivalence and difference in the soil microbiome

Climatic history can shape the functioning of soil microbial communities and thus rates of ecosystem processes such as organic matter decomposition. For example, broad spatial scale differences in climatic history, such as contrasting precipitation regimes, have been shown to generate unique microbial functional responses to contemporary moisture conditions. Yet it is an open question as to whether local differences in soil microclimate similarly influence the functional potential of decomposer communities. Here, we use a multi-scale approach within and among two temperate forest field sites to investigate this question. Soils from fifty-four microsites, that vary in their soil moisture climate-regimes, were used as inocula for a common leaf litter (Quercus rubra L.) in a controlled, laboratory microcosm study. Microcosms were placed under dry, mesic and wet lab-moisture conditions and the rate of carbon (C) mineralization of the litter was measured over 202 days. Our results reveal differences in decomposition rates under controlled conditions that highlight broad-scale functional differences between the soil communities at each site. Specifically, we found that C mineralization differed by as much as two-fold for soil communities when compared between the sites. Our results also show that functional differences of soil communities are observable within one site but not the other. In the site where local-scale functional legacies were apparent, the historical soil moisture microclimate-regimes generated as much as an 89% change in C mineralization rates of the leaf litter under the same contemporary, lab-imposed moisture conditions. Here, a similar pattern was not observable in the other site; instead, laboratory moisture conditions explained almost all variation in C mineralization. Notably, for the site with pronounced local-scale functional legacies, there was much greater within-site variation in field-soil microsite moisture than at the site which did not exhibit functional legacies, suggesting that the extent of local-scale variation in microclimate may act as control on whether local-scale functional legacies are observed. Regardless of whether this mechanism does explain our findings, our observations do confirm those from prior studies where regional-scale moisture-regime differences shape microbial function, and extend this prior work by providing evidence that pronounced local-scale differences in soil moisture microclimate-regimes are associated with microbial functional legacies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗