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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Towards Articulated Mobility and Efficient Docking for the DuAxel Tethered Robot System

Sites of increasing interest for planetary science,such as craters, cold traps, and vents lie in terrains that are inaccessible to state-of-the-art rovers. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in collaboration with Caltech, is actively developing a tethered mobile robot, Axel, for traversing and exploring extremely steep terrain, such as Recurring Slope Lineae on Mars and vertical pits on the Moon. However, on Mars, where landing-site uncertainty is high due to the presence of an atmosphere, Axel may need to traverse several kilometers from its lander untethered due to a finite tether carrying capacity (⇠300m). This paper proposes a novel design for a hybrid mobility system that allows a pair of Axel rovers to dock, lock, and drive long distances as a four-wheeled, articulated steering vehicle. The design improves upon prior efforts to achieve DuAxel mobility by leveraging two actuated docking mechanisms attached on opposite ends of a central module to enable ‘sit/stand’ functionality; the prior DuAxel system was limited to skid steering, which was inefficient due to Axel’s grouser-style, high-friction wheels. In the proposed system, the ‘sit’ configuration is achieved by aligning each dock parallel to the surface, allowing one Axel to detach and explore while the other remains docked and serves as a backup. While ‘sitting’, the central module rests on the ground and is outfitted with shovel-style wedges for passive anchoring to sandy terrain (an optional drill can be integrated for anchoring to rock). In order to ‘stand’, the exploring Axel reattaches, locks, and both docks are rotated until Axel’s tether caster arm is upright and the central module is lifted off the ground. Once upright, each Axel rotates about a pivot point for articulated, all-wheel steering, which is accomplished by applying differential wheel torques. The main contributions of this paper are i) a detailed systems design of the docking mechanism and central module, ii) kinematic modeling of articulated mobility and ‘sit/stand’ docking functionality, and iii) initial testing in a relevant environment to characterize the mobility of the proposed system.

Nesnas, Issa↗
NASA NTRS2021

A NICER View of the Massive Pulsar PSR J0740+6620 Informed by Radio Timing and XMM-Newton Spectroscopy

We report on Bayesian estimation of the radius, mass, and hot surface regions of the massive millisecond pulsar PSR J0740+6620, conditional on pulse-profile modeling of Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer X-ray Timing Instrument event data. We condition on informative pulsar mass, distance, and orbital inclination priors derived from the joint North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves and Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment/Pulsar wideband radio timing measurements of Fonseca et al. We use XMM-Newton European Photon Imaging Camera spectroscopic event data to inform our X-ray likelihood function. The prior support of the pulsar radius is truncated at 16 km to ensure coverage of current dense matter models. We assume conservative priors on instrument calibration uncertainty. We constrain the equatorial radius and mass of PSR J0740+6620 to be-+12.390.981.30km and-+2.0720.0660.067Me respectively, each reported as the posterior credible interval bounded by the 16% and 84% quantiles, conditional on surface hot regions that are non-overlapping spherical caps of fully ionized hydrogen atmosphere with uniform effective temperature; a posteriori, the temperature is=-+TlogK5.99100.060.05([])for each hot region. All software for the X-ray modeling framework is open-source and all data, model, and sample information is publicly available, including analysis notebooks and model modules in the Python language. Our marginal likelihood function of mass and equatorial radius is proportional to the marginal joint posterior density of those parameters(within the prior support)and can thus be computed from the posterior samples.

Millisecond pulsars↗
NASA NTRS2013

Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-Based Risk Model (GERM) Code

This software describes the transport and energy deposition of the passage of galactic cosmic rays in astronaut tissues during space travel, or heavy ion beams in patients in cancer therapy. Space radiation risk is a probability distribution, and time-dependent biological events must be accounted for physical description of space radiation transport in tissues and cells. A stochastic model can calculate the probability density directly without unverified assumptions about shape of probability density function. The prior art of transport codes calculates the average flux and dose of particles behind spacecraft and tissue shielding. Because of the signaling times for activation and relaxation in the cell and tissue, transport code must describe temporal and microspatial density of functions to correlate DNA and oxidative damage with non-targeted effects of signals, bystander, etc. These are absolutely ignored or impossible in the prior art. The GERM code provides scientists data interpretation of experiments; modeling of beam line, shielding of target samples, and sample holders; and estimation of basic physical and biological outputs of their experiments. For mono-energetic ion beams, basic physical and biological properties are calculated for a selected ion type, such as kinetic energy, mass, charge number, absorbed dose, or fluence. Evaluated quantities are linear energy transfer (LET), range (R), absorption and fragmentation cross-sections, and the probability of nuclear interactions after 1 or 5 cm of water equivalent material. In addition, a set of biophysical properties is evaluated, such as the Poisson distribution for a specified cellular area, cell survival curves, and DNA damage yields per cell. Also, the GERM code calculates the radiation transport of the beam line for either a fixed number of user-specified depths or at multiple positions along the Bragg curve of the particle in a selected material. The GERM code makes the numerical estimates of basic physical and biophysical quantities of high-energy protons and heavy ions that have been studied at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) for the purpose of simulating space radiation biological effects. In the first option, properties of monoenergetic beams are treated. In the second option, the transport of beams in different materials is treated. Similar biophysical properties as in the first option are evaluated for the primary ion and its secondary particles. Additional properties related to the nuclear fragmentation of the beam are evaluated. The GERM code is a computationally efficient Monte-Carlo heavy-ion-beam model. It includes accurate models of LET, range, residual energy, and straggling, and the quantum multiple scattering fragmentation (QMSGRG) nuclear database.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging prior mean models for faster Bayesian optimization of particle accelerators

Tuning particle accelerators is a challenging and time-consuming task that can be automated and carried out efficiently using suitable optimization algorithms, such as model-based Bayesian optimization techniques. One of the major advantages of Bayesian algorithms is the ability to incorporate prior information about beam physics and historical behavior into the model used to make control decisions. In this work, we examine incorporating prior accelerator physics information into Bayesian optimization algorithms by utilizing fast executing, neural network models trained on simulated or historical datasets as prior mean functions in Gaussian process models. We show that in ideal cases, this technique substantially increases convergence speed to optimal solutions in high-dimensional tuning parameter spaces. Additionally, we demonstrate that even in non-ideal cases, where prior models of beam dynamics do not exactly match experimental conditions, the use of this technique can still enhance convergence speed. Finally, we demonstrate how these methods can be used to improve optimization in practical applications, such as transferring information gained from beam dynamics simulations to online control of the LCLS injector, and transferring knowledge gained from experimental measurements across different operating modes, such as accelerating different ion species at the ATLAS heavy ion accelerator.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Etch Products of Copper Atomic Layer Etching by Oxidation and Formic Acid Vapor

Atomic layer etching (ALE) of metals offers a path to greater control of selectivity, etch rate, and etch profile. However, tailoring a process to meet these demands requires an understanding of the volatile etch product, which is challenging to detect due to low product concentrations and the paramagnetism of many metalorganic products. Here, in this work, several complementary analysis techniques were used to determine the volatile etch product and residual surface species of a Cu ALE process based on plasma oxidation and formic acid vapor etching of the oxidized layer. It was shown that the volatile product was copper formate with a Cu 2+ paramagnetic center, in concordance with prior density functional theory (DFT) calculations. While copper formate tetrahydrate was formed, it was determined that the tetrahydrate product was confined to the surface, with anhydrous copper formate being the volatile etch product.

Smith, Taylor G. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Materializing Inter-Channel Relationships With Multi-Density Woodcock Tracking

Volume rendering techniques for scientific visualization have recently shifted toward Monte Carlo (MC) methods for their flexibility and robustness, but their use in multi-channel visualization remains underexplored. Traditional multi-channel volume rendering often relies on arbitrary, non-physically based color blending functions that hinder interpretation. Here, we introduce multi-density Woodcock tracking, a simple extension of Woodcock tracking that leverages an MC method to produce high-fidelity, physically grounded multi-channel renderings without arbitrary blending. By generalizing Woodcock’s distance tracking, we provide a unified blending modality that also integrates blending functions from prior works. We further implement effects that enhance boundary and feature recognition. By accumulating frames in real-time, our approach delivers high-quality visualizations with perceptual benefits, demonstrated on diverse datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transformation and gene editing in the bioenergy grass Miscanthus

Miscanthus, a C4 member of Poaceae, is a promising perennial crop for bioenergy, renewable bioproducts, and carbon sequestration. Species of interest include nothospecies M. x giganteus and its parental species M. sacchariflorus and M. sinensis. Use of biotechnology-based procedures to genetically improve Miscanthus, to date, have only included plant transformation procedures for introduction of exogenous genes into the host genome at random, non-targeted sites. We developed gene editing procedures for Miscanthus using CRISPR/Cas9 that enabled the mutation of a specific (targeted) endogenous gene to knock out its function. Classified as paleo-allopolyploids (duplicated ancient Sorghum-like DNA plus chromosome fusion event), design of guide RNAs (gRNAs) for Miscanthus needed to target both homeologs and their alleles to account for functional redundancy. Prior research in Zea mays demonstrated that editing the lemon white1 (lw1) gene, involved in chlorophyll and carotenoid biosynthesis, via CRISPR/Cas9 yielded pale green/yellow, striped or white leaf phenotypes making lw1 a promising target for visual confirmation of editing in other species. Using sequence information from both Miscanthus and sorghum, orthologs of maize lw1 were identified; a multi-step screening approach was used to select three gRNAs that could target homeologs of lw1. Embryogenic calli of M. sacchariflorus, M. sinensis and M. x giganteus were transformed via particle bombardment (biolistics) or Agrobacterium tumefaciens introducing the Cas9 gene and three gRNAs to edit lw1. Leaves on edited Miscanthus plants displayed the same phenotypes noted in maize. Sanger sequencing confirmed editing; deletions in lw1 ranged from 1 to 26 bp in length, and one deletion (433 bp) encompassed two target sites. Confocal microscopy verified lack of autofluorescence (chlorophyll) in edited leaves/sectors. We developed procedures for gene editing via CRISPR/Cas9 in Miscanthus and, to the best of our knowledge, are the first to do so. This included five genotypes representing three Miscanthus species. Designed gRNAs targeted all copies of lw1 (homeologous copies and their alleles); results also confirmed lw1 made a good editing target in species other than Z. mays. The ability to target specific loci to enable endogenous gene editing presents a new avenue for genetic improvement of this important biomass crop.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Space shuttle solid rocket booster processing and recovery operations at Kennedy Space Center

This paper describes the processing and recovery operations at Kennedy Space Center as applied to the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster. The introductory portion covers the overall Space Shuttle launch vehicle with a description of the Solid Rocket Boosters and explanations of their functions. Processing operations begin with the arrival of the new or refurbished Solid Rocket Motor segments by rail cars from the manufacturer. Segment buildup is performed on the Mobile Launch Platform, and the completed major booster elements are functionally tested prior to their integration with other prime elements that comprise a complete Shuttle launch vehicle. The recovery operations following launch include Solid Rocket Booster separation, parachute deployment, splashdown, and the activities associated with retrieval of the reusable components of the Solid Rocket Boosters. Subsequently, the paper describes the processing required to thoroughly clean the retrieved items, the disassembly activities, and refurbishment steps planned for restoration of the hardware components to usable condition.

Dickinson, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Visible-infrared remote-sensing model and applications for ocean waters

Remote sensing has become important in the ocean sciences, especially for research involving large spatial scales. To estimate the in-water constituents through remote sensing, whether carried out by satellite or airplane, the signal emitted from beneath the sea surface, the so called water-leaving radiance (L(w)), is of prime importance. The magnitude of L(w) depends on two terms: one is the intensity of the solar input, and the other is the reflectance of the in-water constituents. The ratio of the water-leaving radiance to the downwelling irradiance (E(d)) above the sear surface (remote-sensing reflectance, R(sub rs)) is independent of the intensity of the irradiance input, and is largely a function of the optical properties of the in-water constituents. In this work, a model is developed to interpret r(sub rs) for ocean water in the visible-infrared range. In addition to terms for the radiance scattered from molecules and particles, the model includes terms that describe contributions from bottom reflectance, fluorescence of gelbstoff or colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and water Raman scattering. By using this model, the measured R(sub rs) of waters from the West Florida Shelf to the Mississippi River plume, which covered a (concentration of chlorophyll a) range of 0.07 - 50 mg/cu m, were well interpreted. The average percentage difference (a.p.d.) between the measured and modeled R(sub rs) is 3.4%, and, for the shallow waters, the model-required water depth is within 10% of the chart depth. Simple mathematical simulations for the phytoplankton pigment absorption coefficient (a(sub theta)) are suggested for using the R(sub rs) model. The inverse problem of R(sub rs), which is to analytically derive the in-water constituents from R(sub rs) data alone, can be solved using the a(sub theta) functions without prior knowledge of the in-water optical properties. More importantly, this method avoids problems associated with a need for knowledge of the shape and value of the chlorophyll-specific absorption coefficient. The simulation was tested for a wide range of water types, including waters from Monterey Bay, the West Florida Shelf, and the Mississippi River plume. Using the simulation, the R(sub rs)-derived in-water absorption coefficients were consistent with the values from in-water measurements (r(exp 2) greater than 0.94, slope approximately 1.0). In the remote-sensing applications, a new approach is suggested for the estimation of primary production based on remote sensing. Using this approach, the calculated primary production (PP) values based upon remotely sensed data were very close to the measured values for the euphotic zone (r(exp 2) = 0.95, slope 1.26, and 32% average difference), while traditional, pigment-based PP model provided values only one-third the size of the measured data. This indicates a potential to significantly improve the accuracy of the estimation of primary production based upon remote sensing.

Lee, Zhongping↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER): Design and Development

During 2014 and 2015, NASA's Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission proceeded successfully through Phase C, Design and Development. An X-ray (0.2{12 keV) astrophysics payload destined for the International Space Station, NICER is manifested for launch in early 2017 on the Commercial Resupply Services SpaceX-11 flight. Its scientific objectives are to investigate the internal structure, dynamics, and energetics of neutron stars, the densest objects in the universe. During Phase C, flight components including optics, detectors, the optical bench, pointing actuators, electronics, and others were subjected to environmental testing and integrated to form the flight payload. A custom-built facility was used to co-align and integrate the X-ray \concentrator" optics and silicon-drift detectors. Ground calibration provided robust performance measures of the optical (at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center) and detector (at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) subsystems, while comprehensive functional tests prior to payload-level environmental testing met all instrument performance requirements. We describe here the implementation of NICER's major subsystems, summarize their performance and calibration, and outline the component-level testing that was successfully applied.

SEXTANT↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Design for a Two-Stage Solid Mars Ascent Vehicle

A solid propulsion system design is being considered for a conceptual Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) as part of a potential robotic Mars Sample Return campaign. A Preliminary Architecture Assessment for a MAV is being conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center. Experts from all relevant areas are involved in a rapid design and analysis cycle to define a MAV vehicle utilizing solid propulsion. The design presented here is the solid motor propulsion concept result of the study. Whereas solid motors have been used on Mars missions in the past during descent, none have been required to reside on the surface for a period of time prior to functioning. This difference will expose the MAV to relatively extreme temperatures. Other challenges exist in designing a solid propulsion system for MAV including performance interactions with other vehicle inert masses and minimizing orbit dispersions. These considerations were examined and a preliminary CAD model of the motors was created. Along with additional pertinent inputs from other disciplines, a solid propulsion vehicle concept for the MAV is described.

Prince, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS1973

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops.

An approach to the analysis of performance of quasi-optimum digital phase-locked loops (DPLL's) is presented. An expression for the characteristic function of the prior error in the state estimate is derived, and from this expression an infinite dimensional equation for the prior error variance is obtained. The prior error-variance equation is a function of the communication system model and the DPLL gain and is independent of the method used to derive the DPLL gain. Two approximations are discussed for reducing the prior error-variance equation to finite dimension. The effectiveness of one approximation in analyzing DPLL performance is studied.

Polk, D. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in Ref. [2]. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized data are perfect. 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal. 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in [1] could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in [1] to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implementing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS and the stochastic method, respectively. The graphic in Figure 1 categorizes the methods discussed in terms of the assumptions that they employ to determine posterior PDFs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Generalized Bayesian Framework for Evaluation of Integral Benchmark Experiments

A recently published generalized Bayesian optimization framework has provided a way to retract any or all of the three common assumptions underlying the conventional Generalized Linear Least Squares (GLLS) optimization method based on the concepts introduced in reference two. These assumptions are: 1. Perfection: The model used for data evaluation and the prior probability distribution function (PDF) of generalized* data are perfect; 2. Normality: The prior and posterior PDF are normal; and 3. Linearity: The model is linear. In this work we outline how the framework in 1 could be directly adopted for improved evaluation of nuclear criticality integral benchmark experiments (IBEs) by: 1. Removing the first assumption alone by utilizing the concept of imperfections introduced in 1 to enable evaluation in the presence of discrepancies between the data and model or of missing covariance information by a GLLS method that will be seen as a generalization of the conventional GLLS method employed by the TSURFER code, and by 2. Removing the remaining two assumptions by implement- ing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for computation of the posterior PDF in the SAMPLER code, where TSURFER and SAMPLER are the uncertainty quantification (UQ) codes for IBEs in the SCALE code system based on the GLLS, and the stochastic method, respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

On singular cases in the design derivative of Green's functional

The author's prior development of a general abstract representation for the design sensitivities of Green's functional for linear structural systems is extended to the case where the structural stiffness vanishes at an internal location. This situation often occurs in the optimal design of structures. Most optimality criteria require that optimally designed beams be statically determinate. For clamped-pinned beams, for example, this is possible only if the flexural stiffness vanishes at some intermediate location. The Green's function for such structures depends upon the stiffness and the location where it vanishes. A precise representation for Green's function's sensitivity to the location of vanishing stiffness is presented for beams and axisymmetric plates.

Reiss, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Bayesian image reconstruction - The pixon and optimal image modeling

In this paper we describe the optimal image model, maximum residual likelihood method (OptMRL) for image reconstruction. OptMRL is a Bayesian image reconstruction technique for removing point-spread function blurring. OptMRL uses both a goodness-of-fit criterion (GOF) and an 'image prior', i.e., a function which quantifies the a priori probability of the image. Unlike standard maximum entropy methods, which typically reconstruct the image on the data pixel grid, OptMRL varies the image model in order to find the optimal functional basis with which to represent the image. We show how an optimal basis for image representation can be selected and in doing so, develop the concept of the 'pixon' which is a generalized image cell from which this basis is constructed. By allowing both the image and the image representation to be variable, the OptMRL method greatly increases the volume of solution space over which the image is optimized. Hence the likelihood of the final reconstructed image is greatly increased. For the goodness-of-fit criterion, OptMRL uses the maximum residual likelihood probability distribution introduced previously by Pina and Puetter (1992). This GOF probability distribution, which is based on the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals, has the advantage that it ensures spatially uncorrelated image reconstruction residuals.

Pina, R. K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Predicting Li-Ion Battery Capacity Fade Using Early-Life Data and a Hybrid Data-Driven Gaussian Process-Bayesian Regression Approach

Accurately predicting Li-ion battery capacity trajectories using early-life data can dramatically improve battery-life understandings and be used to rapidly evaluate design/cost/performance trade-offs when developing new battery materials. Accurate early-life predictions enable researchers to quickly iterate over cell designs and material precursor properties without consistently cycling cells to failure. To this end, we present a toolbox that uses a combined Gaussian Process and Bayesian regression approach that capitalizes on signals other than just capacity (e.g., dQ/dV, voltage drops) to rapidly predict capacity-fade trajectories. The prediction tool uses Bayesian regression to fit functional forms, e.g., power law, sigmoids, etc., to predict capacity-fade dynamics. By fitting functional forms, the capacity fade can be interrogated at any point in the future, allowing for early cell-failure prediction. Additionally, Bayesian regression allows for accurate uncertainty estimates that account for cell-to-cell variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and the lack of observation data (epistemic uncertainty). By only using early cycle data to predict the capacity fade trajectory, uncertainty bounds at end-of-life can be extremely large. The large uncertainty bounds are further exacerbated because there is no systematic way to define the prior distribution of the functional forms' parameters. We improve our the predicted trajectory confidence interval of our predicted trajectory using two methods. First, we shows that a small amount of held-out cycling data is sufficientuse some train cells, that have been cycled to failure to derive information regarding the appropriate prior distributions for the functional forms' parameters of the functional form, effectively leading to data-driven priors.. We propose constructing the data-driven priors by first running a Bayesian regression starting with uninformed priors to generate intermediate cell-specific posterior parameter distributions. These posterior distributions are combined using a Ggaussian mixture model for each parameter to create the data-driven priors. These mixture models serve as the data-driven prior distributions for the parameters for. Second, we derive multiple features, e.g., C_dchg 0.5 DoD 0.5, log (|mean(dQ/dV_(w_3-w_0 ) (V)|), etc., from the train cellsheld-out cycling data, identify which the features are that best predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles, and then create Ggaussian process regression models that are used for predicting capacity at early/mid-life cycles for the test cells (see blue dots with error bars in Fig 1b). Finally, these predicted data-points are used in addition to the actual early cycle data capacity fade to construct the Bayesian regression trajectory for the test cell s. Notably. We note that these two methods are complementary and can be combined with each other. We evaluate the performance of our proposed method on an testing open-source dataset from Iowa State University and Iowa Lakes Community College (ISU-ILCC). This dataset comprises of 251 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Lithium-ion cells that are cycled under 63 different conditions. We compute the mean average percentage error (MAPE) and negative log predictive density (NLPD) to quantify the efficacy of our method. Our initial findings suggest that, when only few observations are available, for test cells, when using only Bayesian regression with uninformed priors, a power law functional provides the most accurate predictions. with very few data points. However, asHowever, a the number of data points increases, a twin sigmoidal function becomes more accurate as the number of observations further increases. We also find that using as little as 10% of the data set towards generating data-driven priors can lead to significant improvement in prediction accuracy when using early cycle data. Lastly, we found that augmenting early-cycle data with Gaussian process-predicted capacity data for Bayesian regression greatly improves the prediction accuracy. We will present a comprehensive comparison of our methods to other methods available in the literature and apply this method to additional battery datasets.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗