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Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models–specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

resilience

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models--specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

Daniel Hulse

Mount Protects Thin-Walled Glass or Ceramic Tubes from Large Thermal and Vibration Loads

The design allows for the low-stress mounting of fragile objects, like thin walled glass, by using particular ways of compensating, isolating, or releasing the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) differences between the mounted object and the mount itself. This mount profile is lower than true full kinematic mounting. Also, this approach enables accurate positioning of the component for electrical and optical interfaces. It avoids the higher and unpredictable stress issues that often result from potting the object. The mount has been built and tested to space-flight specifications, and has been used for fiber-optic, optical, and electrical interfaces for a spaceflight mission. This mount design is often metal and is slightly larger than the object to be mounted. The objects are optical or optical/electrical, and optical and/or electrical interfaces are required from the top and bottom. This requires the mount to be open at both ends, and for the object s position to be controlled. Thin inside inserts at the top and bottom contact the housing at defined lips, or edges, and hold the fragile object in the mount. The inserts can be customized to mimic the outer surface of the object, which further reduces stress. The inserts have the opposite CTE of the housing material, partially compensating for the CTE difference that causes thermal stress. A spring washer is inserted at one end to compensate for more CTE difference and to hold the object against the location edge of the mount for any optical position requirements. The spring also ensures that any fiber-optic or optic interface, which often requires some pressure to ensure a good interface, does not overstress the fragile object. The insert thickness, material, and spring washer size can be traded against each other to optimize the mount and stresses for various thermal and vibration load ranges and other mounting requirements. The alternate design uses two separate, unique features to reduce stress and hold the object. A release agent is applied to the inside surface of the mount just before the binding potting material is injected in the mount. This prevents the potting material from bonding to the mount, and thus prevents stress from being applied, at very low temperatures, to the fragile object being mounted. The potting material mixing and curing is temperature- and humidity-controlled. The mount has radial grooves cut in it that the potting material fills, thus controlling the vertical position of the mounted object. The design can easily be used for long and thin objects, short and wide objects, and any shape in between. The design s advantages are amplified for long and thin fragile objects. The general testing range was 45 to +45 C, but multiple mounts were successfully tested down to 60 and up to 50 C and the design can be adjusted for larger ranges.

Amato, Michael

Aerogel Development

Aerogel is one of the most promising materials of the future. It's unique properties, including high porosity, transparency, very high thermal tolerance, and environmental friendliness give it the potential of replacing many different products used in society today. However, the market for aerogel is still very limited because of the cost of producing the material and its fragility. The principle objective of my project has been to find new ways to apply aerogel in order to increase its practicality and appeal to different aspects of society. More specifically, I have focused on finding different chemicals that will coat aerogel and increase its durability. Because aerogel is so fragile and will crumble under the pressure of most coatings this has been no easy task. However, by experimenting with many different coatings and combinations of aerogel properties, I have made several significant discoveries. Aerogel (ideally, high density and hydrophobic) can be coated with several acrylic polymers, including artist's gel and nail polish. These materials provide a protective layering around the aerogel and keep it from breaking as easily. Because fragility is one of the main reasons applications of aerogel are limited, these discoveries will hopefully aid in finding future applications for this extraordinary material.

Sahai, Rashmi K.

Polymer Crosslinked 3-D Assemblies of Nanoparticles: Mechanically Strong Lightweight Porous Materials

In analogy to supramolecular assemblies, which are pursued because of properties above and beyond those of the individual molecules, self-standing monolithic three-dimensional assemblies of nanoparticles also have unique properties attributed to their structure. For example, ultra low-density 3-D assemblies of silica nanoparticles, known as silica aerogels, are characterized by large internal void space, high surface area and very low thermal conductivity. Aerogels, however, are also extremely fragile materials, limiting their application to a few specialized environments, e.g., in nuclear reactors as Cerenkov radiation detectors, in space (refer to NASA's Stardust Program) and aboard certain planetary vehicles (thermal insulators on Mars Rovers in 1997 and 2004). The fragility problem is traced to well-defined weak points in the aerogel skeletal framework, the interparticle necks. Using the surface functionality of the nanoparticle building blocks as a focal point, we have directed attachment of a conformal polymer coating over the entire framework, rendering all necks wider. Thus, although the bulk density may increase only by 3x, the mesoporosity (pores in the range 2-50 nm) remains unchanged, while the strength of the material increases by up to 300... Having addressed the fragility problem, aerogels are now robust materials, and a variety of applications, ranging from thermal/acoustic insulators to catalyst supports, to platform for sensors, and dielectrics are all within reach. Our approach employs molecular science to manipulate nanoscopic matter for achieving useful macroscopic properties, and in our view it resides at the core of what defines nanotechnology. In that spirit, this technology is expandable in three directions. Thus, we have already crosslinked successfully amine-modified silica, and we anticipate that more rich chemistry will be realized by been creative with the nanoparticle surface modifiers. On the other hand, although we do not expect orders-of-magnitude increase in strength, nevertheless, by varying the polymer we expect to impart other properties such as hydrophobicity, thermal stability and perhaps electrical conductivity. Besides polymers, crosslinkers will include metals and ceramics (e.g., through POSS precursors). Finally, network morphology directs load dissipation, and of approximately 30 different crosslinked oxide aerogels, vanadia, whose structure is fibrous rather than particulate, yields a much stronger (by 4..) material than silica of the same density. It seems imperative to implement control of network morphology, even through templating.

Leventis, Nicholas

Implementation of a Non-Metallic Barrier in an Electric Motor

Electric motors that run in pure oxygen must be sealed, or "canned," for safety reasons to prevent the oxygen from entering into the electrical portion of the motor. The current canning process involves designing a metallic barrier around the rotor to provide the separation. This metallic barrier reduces the motor efficiency as speed is increased. In higher-speed electric motors, efficiency is greatly improved if a very thin, nonmetallic barrier can be utilized. The barrier thickness needs to be approximately 0.025-in. (.0.6-mm) thick and can be made of a brittle material such as glass. The motors, however, designed for space applications are typically subject to high-vibration environments. A fragile, non-metallic barrier can be utilized in a motor assembly if held in place by a set of standard rubber O-ring seals. The O-rings provide the necessary sealing to keep oxygen away from the electrical portion of the motor and also isolate the fragile barrier from the harsh motor vibration environment. The compliance of the rubber O-rings gently constrains the fragile barrier and isolates it from the harsh external motor environment. The use of a non-metallic barrier greatly improves motor performance, especially at higher speeds, while isolating the electronics from the working fluid with an inert liner.

M?Sadoques, George

Bone Turnover Does Not Reflect Skeletal Aging in Older Hispanic Men with Type 2 Diabetes

The paradox of fragility fracture in the presence of non-osteoporotic bone mineral density in older patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) makes it difficult to clinically predict fracture in this vulnerable group. Serum osteocalcin (OC), a marker of bone turnover, increases with normal skeletal aging indicating risk of fracture. However, OC has been reported to be lower in patients with DM2. An inverse association between higher glycated hemoglobin levels (HbA1c) and lower serum OC in older DM2 patients triggered discussions encouraging further investigation. A key question to be answered is whether changes in glucose metabolism is responsible for bone metabolic changes, ultimately leading to increased risk of fragility fractures in DM2 patients. While these studies were conducted among Caucasian and Asian populations, this has not been studied in Hispanic populations who suffer from a higher prevalence of DM2. The Cameron County Hispanic Cohort (CCHC) in Texas is a homogeneous Hispanic cohort known to have high prevalence of DM2 (30%). Our preliminary data from this cohort reported OC levels lower than the suggested threshold for fragility fracture in post-menopausal women. We further investigated whether bone turnover in older CCHC adults with DM2 show a normal pattern of skeletal aging. Samples and data were obtained from a nested cohort of 68 (21 men and 47 women) Hispanic older adults (≥50 years) who had a diagnosis of DM2. Given high prevalence of uncontrolled DM2 in this cohort, we divided population into two groups: i) poor DM2 control with HbA1c level ≥8 (48% men and 38% women) and ii) good DM2 control with HbA1c level <8). A crosssectional analysis documented associations between serum OC and age adjusted HbA1c levels. There was no direct association between age and OC concentrations in our study. Higher HbA1c was associated with lower serum OC in men (odds ratio -6.5, 95% confidence interval -12.7 to - 0.3, p < 0.04). No significant associations were identified in women. Bone turnover in older Hispanic men with DM2 in our study does not reflect normal pattern of skeletal aging. It is unclear why similar results were not identified in women. We will continue to follow this cohort to investigate longitudinal trend of changes of bone turnover and its relationship with HbA1c in both men and women of this cohort.

Rianon, N.

Fireball end heights - A diagnostic for the structure of meteoric material

An earlier analysis of Prairie Network fireball trajectory data failed to discriminate between the varieties of meteoric materials that are thought to be present. The Lost City meteorite event offers another calibration of the fireball data and prompts a reanalysis intended to distinguish between ordinary chondritic meteorites and the more fragile early-type carbonaceous chondrites. The carbonaceous material is expected to ablate more readily and have shorter trajectories or higher end heights. Observational error and natural dispersion in the structures produce severe smoothing effects, and the end-height diagnostic is, in itself, not entirely convincing. However, after making a tentative division of the data, one can discern differences in orbits and beginning heights among the three end-height groups. These are consistent with expectations of the behavior of chondritic stones (group I), weak carbonaceous chondrites (group II), and still more fragile cometary material (group III). It is concluded that if the carbonaceous material occurs in reasonable abundance among the fireballs, it has been properly identified by this analysis.

Ceplecha, Z.

Tailorable advanced blanket insulation using aluminoborosilicate and alumina batting

Two types of Tailorable Advanced Blanket Insulation (TABI) flat panels for Advanced Space Transportation Systems were produced. Both types consisted of integrally woven, 3-D fluted core having parallel faces and connecting ribs of Nicalon yarns. The triangular cross section flutes of one type was filled with mandrels of processed Ultrafiber (aluminoborosilicate) stitchbonded Nextel 440 fibrous felt, and the second type wall filled with Saffil alumina fibrous felt insulation. Weaving problems were minimal. Insertion of the fragile insulation mandrels into the fabric flutes was improved by using a special insertion tool. An attempt was made to weave fluted core fabrics from Nextel 440 yarns but was unsuccessful because of the yarn's fragility. A small sample was eventually produced by an unorthodox weaving process and then filled with Saffil insulation. The procedures for setting up and weaving the fabrics and preparing and inserting insulation mandrels are discussed. Characterizations of the panels produced are also presented.

Calamito, Dominic P.

Microtextured metals for stray-light suppression in the Clementine startracker

Anodized blacks for suppressing stray light in optical systems can now be replaced by microscopically textured metal surfaces. An application of these black surfaces to the Clementine star-tracker navigational system, which will be launched in early 1994 to examine the Moon, en route to intercept an asteroid, is detailed. Rugged black surfaces with Lambertian BRDF less than 10(exp -2) srad(sup -1) are critical for suppressing stray light in the star-tracker optical train. Previously available materials spall under launch vibrations to contaminate mirrors and lenses. Microtextured aluminum is nearly as dark, but much less fragile. It is made by differential ion beam sputtering, which generates light-trapping pores and cones slightly smaller than the wavelength to be absorbed. This leaves a sturdy but light-absorbing surface that can survive challenging conditions without generating debris or contaminants. Both seeded ion beams and plasma immersion (from ECR plasmas) extraction can produce these microscopic textures without fragile interfaces. Process parameters control feature size, spacing, and optical effects (THR, BRDF). Both broad and narrow absorption bands can be engineered with tuning for specific wavelengths and applications. Examples are presented characterized by FTIR in reflection librators (0.95 normal emissivity), heat rejection, and enhanced nucleate boiling.

Johnson, E. A.

Structural load control during construction

In the absence of gravitational pull, the major design considerations for large space structures are stiffness for controllability, and transient dynamic loadings (as opposed to the traditional static load associated with earth-based structures). Because of the absence of gravitational loading, space structures can be designed to be significantly lighter than their counterparts on Earth. For example, the Space Shuttle manipulator arm is capable of moving and positioning a 60,000 lb payload, yet weighs less than 1,000 lbs. A recent design for the Space Station which had a total weight of about 500,000 lbs. used a primary loadcarrying keel beam which weighed less than 10,000 lbs. For many large space structures designs it is quite common for the load-carrying structure to have a mass fraction on the order of one or two percent of the total spacecraft mass. This significant weight reduction for large space structures is commonly accompanied by very low natural frequencies. These low frequencies cause an unprecedented level of operational complexity for mission applications which require a high level of positioning and control accuracy. This control problem is currently the subject of considerable research directed towards reducing the flexibility problem. In addition, however, the small mass fraction typically results in structures which are quite unforgiving to inadvertent high loadings. In other words, the structures are 'fragile.' In order to deal with the fragility issue CSC developed a load-limiting concept for space truss structures. This concept is aimed at limiting the levels of load which can occur in a large space structure during the construction process as well as during subsequent operations. Currently, the approach for dealing with large loadings is to make the structure larger. The impact this has on construction is significant. The larger structures are more difficult to package in the launch vehicle, and in fact in some instances the concept must be changed from a deployable truss to an erectable truss to permit packaging. The new load-limiting concept is aimed at permitting the use in large space structures of smaller trusses with a high level of strength robustness, in order to simplify the construction process. To date several analyses conducted on the concept have demonstrated its feasibility, and an experiment is currently being designed to demonstrate its operation.

Mikulas, Martin M., Jr.

Formation and chemical reactivity of carbon fibers prepared by defluorination of graphite fluoride

Defluorination of graphite fluoride (CFX) by heating to temperatures of 250 to 450 C in chemically reactive environments was studied. This is a new and possibly inexpensive process to produce new carbon-based materials. For example, CF 0.68 fibers, made from P-100 carbon fibers, can be defluorinated in BrH2C-CH = CH-CH2Br (1,4-dibromo-2butene) heated to 370 C, and graphitized to produce fibers with an unusually high modulus and a graphite layer structure that is healed and cross-linked. Conversely, a sulfur-doped, visibly soft carbon fiber was produced by defluorinating CF 0.9 fibers, made from P-25, in sulfur (S) vapor at 370 C and then heating to 660 C in nitrogen (N2). Furthermore, defluorination of the CF 0.68 fibers in bromine (Br2) produced fragile, structurally damaged carbon fibers. Heating these fragile fibers to 1100 C in N2 caused further structural damage, whereas heating to 150 C in bromoform (CHBr3) and then to 1100 C in N2 healed the structural defects. The defluorination product of CFX, tentatively called activated graphite, has the composition and molecular structure of graphite, but is chemically more reactive. Activated graphite is a scavenger of manganese (Mn), and can be intercalated with magnesium (Mg). Also, it can easily collect large amounts of an alloy made from copper (Cu) and type 304 stainless steel to form a composite. Finally, there are indications that activated graphite can wet metals or ceramics, thereby forming stronger composites with them than the pristine carbon fibers can form.

Hung, Ching-Cheh

Comet Grains: Their IR Emission and Their Relation to ISM Grains

Comets and the chodritic, porous interplanetary dust particles (CP IDPs) that they shed in their comae are reservoirs of primitive solar nebula materials. The high porosity and fragility of cometary grains and CP IDPs, and anomalously high deuterium contents of highly fragile, pyroxene-rich Cluster IDPs imply these aggregate particles contain significant abundances of grains from the interstellar medium (ISM). IR spectra of comets (3 - 40 micron) reveal the presence of a warm (nearIR) featureless emission modeled by amorphous carbon grains. Broad and narrow resonances near 10 and 20 microns are modeled by warm chondritic (50% Fe and 50% Mg) amorphous silicates and cooler Mg-rich crystalline silicate minerals, respectively. Cometary amorphous silicates resonances are well matched by IR spectra of CP IDPs dominated by GEMS (0.1 micron silicate spherules) that are thought to be the interstellar Fe-bearing amorphous silicates produced in AGB stars. Acid-etched ultramicrotomed CP IDP samples, however, show that both the carbon phase (amorphous and aliphatic) and the Mg-rich amorphous silicate phase in GEMS are not optically absorbing. Rather, it is Fe and FeS nanoparticles embedded in the GEMS that makes the CP IDPs dark. Therefore, CP IDPs suggest significant processing has occurred in the ISM. ISM processing probably includes in He' ion bombardment in supernovae shocks. Laboratory experiments show He+ ion bombardment amorphizes crystalline silicates, increases porosity, and reduces Fe into nanoparticles. Cometary crystalline silicate resonances are well matched by IR spectra of laboratory submicron Mg-rich olivine crystals and pyroxene crystals. Discovery of a Mg-pure olivine crystal in a Cluster IDP with isotopically anomalous oxygen indicates that a small fraction of crystalline silicates may have survived their journey from AGB stars through the ISM to the early solar nebula. The ISM does not have enough crystalline silicates (<5%) , however, to account for the deduced abundance of crystalline silicates in comet dust. An insufficient source of ISM Mg-rich crystals leads to the inference that most Mg-rich crystals in comets are primitive grains processed in the early solar nebula prior to their incorporation into comets. Mg-rich crystals may condense in the hot (approx. 1450 K), inner zones of the early solar nebula and then travel large radial distances out to the comet-forming zone. On the other hand, Mg-rich silicate crystals may be ISM amorphous silicates annealed at approx. 1000 K and radially distributed out to the comet-forming zone or annealed in nebular shocks at approx. 5 - 10 AU. Determining the relative abundance of amorphous and crystalline silicates in comets probes the relative contributions of ISM grains and primitive grains to small, icy bodies in the solar system. The life cycle of dust from its stardust origins through the ISM to its incorporation into comets is discussed.

Wooden, Diane H.

Microgravity Studies of Liquid-Liquid Phase Transitions in Alumina-Yttria Melts

The scientific objective of this research is to increase the fundamental knowledge base for liquid- phase processing of technologically important oxide materials. The experimental objective is to define conditions and hardware requirements for microgravity flight experiments to test and expand the experimental hypotheses that: 1. Liquid phase transitions can occur in undercooled melts by a diffusionless process. 2. Onset of the liquid phase transition is accompanied by a large change in the temperature dependence of melt viscosity. Experiments on undercooled YAG (Y3A15012)- and rare earth oxide aluminate composition liquids demonstrated a large departure from an Arrhenian temperature dependence of viscosity. Liquid YAG is nearly inviscid at its 2240 K melting point. Glass fibers were pulled from melts undercooled by ca. 600 K indicating that the viscosity is on the order of 100 Pans (1000 Poise) at 1600 K. This value of viscosity is 500 times greater than that obtained by extrapolation of data for temperatures above the melting point of YAG. These results show that the liquids are extremely fragile and that the onset of the highly non-Arrhenian viscosity-temperature relationship occurs at a temperature considerably below the equilibrium melting point of the solid phases. Further results on undercooled alumina-yttria melts containing 23-42 mole % yttrium oxide indicate that a congruent liquid-liquid phase transition occurs in the undercooled liquids. The rates of transition are inconsistent with a diffusion-limited process. This research is directed to investigation of the scientifically interesting phenomena of polyamorphism and fragility in undercooled rare earth oxide aluminum oxide liquids. The results bear on the technologically important problem of producing high value rare earth-based optical materials.

Guynes, Buddy

Mechanically Strong, Polymer Cross-linked Aerogels (X-Aerogels)

Aerogels comprise a class of low-density, high porous solid objects consisting of dimensionally quasi-stable self-supported three-dimensional assemblies of nanoparticles. Aerogels are pursued because of properties above and beyond those of the individual nanoparticles, including low thermal conductivity, low dielectric constant and high acoustic impedance. Possible applications include thermal and vibration insulation, dielectrics for fast electronics, and hosting of functional guests for a wide variety of optical, chemical and electronic applications. Aerogels, however, are extremely fragile materials, hence they have found only limited application in some very specialized environments, for example as Cerenkov radiation detectors in certain types of nuclear reactors, aboard spacecraft as collectors of hypervelocity particles (refer to NASA's Stardust program) and as thermal insulators on planetary vehicles on Mars (refer to Sojourner Rover in 1997 and Spirit and Opportunity in 2004). Along these lines, the X-Aerogel is a new NASA-developed strong lightweight material that has resolved the fragility problem of traditional (native) aerogels. X-Aerogels are made by applying a conformal polymer coating on the surfaces of the skeletal nanoparticles of native aerogels (see Scanning Electron Micrographs). Since the relative amounts of the polymeric crosslinker and the backbone are comparable, X-Aerogels can be viewed either as aerogels modified by the templated accumulation of polymer on the skeletal nanoparticles, or as nanoporous polymers made by remplated casting of polymer on a nanostructured framework. The most striking feature of X-Aerogels is that for a nominal 3-fold increase in density (still a ultralighweight material), the mechanical strength can be up to 300 times higher than the strength of the underlying native aerogel. Thus, X-Aerogels combine a multiple of the specific compressive strength of steel, with the the thermal conductivity of styrofoam. X-Aerogels have been demonstrated with several polymers such as polyurethanes/polyureas, epoxies and polyolefins, while crosslinking of approximately 35 different oxide aerogels yields a range of dimensionally stable, porous lightweight materials with unique combinations of structural, magnetic and optical properties. The main theme in materials development for space exploration is multifunction. For example, use of one material for thermal insulation/structural component will free weight for useful payload. In that regard, X-aerogels are evaluated at NASA for cryogenic fuel storage tanks and for spacesuits. Along the same lines, major impact fro X-Aerogels is also expected in commercial applications for thermal/acoustic insulation, in catalytic reformers and converters, in filtration membranes and membranes for fuel cells, as platforms for optical, electrical and magnetic sensors, and as lightweight structural component for aircraft and satellites.

Leventis, Nicholas