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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Foundations of Rigorous Cyber Experimentation

This report presents the results of the “Foundations of Rigorous Cyber Experimentation” (FORCE) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project. This project is a companion project to the “Science and Engineering of Cyber security through Uncertainty quantification and Rigorous Experimentation” (SECURE) Grand Challenge LDRD project. This project leverages the offline, controlled nature of cyber experimentation technologies in general, and emulation testbeds in particular, to assess how uncertainties in network conditions affect uncertainties in key metrics. We conduct extensive experimentation using a Firewheel emulation-based cyber testbed model of Invisible Internet Project (I2P) networks to understand a de-anonymization attack formerly presented in the literature. Our goals in this analysis are to see if we can leverage emulation testbeds to produce reliably repeatable experimental networks at scale, identify significant parameters influencing experimental results, replicate the previous results, quantify uncertainty associated with the predictions, and apply multi-fidelity techniques to forecast results to real-world network scales. The I2P networks we study are up to three orders of magnitude larger than the networks studied in SECURE and presented additional challenges to identify significant parameters. The key contributions of this project are the application of SECURE techniques such as UQ to a scenario of interest and scaling the SECURE techniques to larger network sizes. This report describes the experimental methods and results of these studies in more detail. In addition, the process of constructing these large-scale experiments tested the limits of the Firewheel emulation-based technologies. Therefore, another contribution of this work is that it informed the Firewheel developers of scaling limitations, which were subsequently corrected.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new method for predicting hurricane rapid intensification based on co-occurring environmental parameters

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo Rapid Intensification (RI) can pose serious socioeconomic threats and can potentially result in major damaging impacts along coastal areas. Considering the complexity of various physical mechanisms that play a role in RI and its relatively low probability of occurrence, predicting RI remains a major operational challenge. In this study, we propose a simple deterministic binary classification model based on the co-occurrence of environmental parameters (MCE) to predict an RI event. More specifically, the model determines the possibility of RI based on a simple count of the number of environmental predictors deemed favorable and unfavorable. We compare our model results to logistic regression (LR) and decision tree (DT) models, well-trained using the same set of environmental predictors. Results reveal that at an RI threshold of 30 kt, the MCE exhibits a critical success index score of 0.233 which is 14% higher than DT and LR model performances. When tested at multiple RI thresholds, the MCE displays relatively higher skill scores across multiple metrics. By simultaneously evaluating the favorability of predictors, the MCE is able to comparatively reduce the number of false alarms predicted when certain predictors are unfavorable toward RI. Interpreting these model results to gain a physical understanding of how co-occurring environmental parameters can affect RI, we highlight future directions for using models based on the MCE approach to understand and predict TC RI as well as other meteorological extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign

The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning–Adjusted WRF Forecasts to Support Wind Energy Needs in Black Start Operations

Abstract The push for increased capacity of renewable sources of electricity has led to the growth of wind-power generation, with a need for accurate forecasts of winds at hub height. Forecasts for these levels were uncommon until recently, and that, combined with the nocturnal collapse of the well-mixed boundary layer and daytime growth of the boundary layer through the levels important for energy generation, has contributed to errors in numerical modeling of wind generation resources. The present study explores several machine learning algorithms to both forecast and correct standard WRF Model forecasts of winds and temperature at hub height within wind turbine plants over several different time periods that are critical for the anticipation of potential blackouts and aiding in black start operations on the power grid. It was found that mean square error for day-2 wind forecasts from the WRF Model can be improved by over 90% with the use of a multioutput neural network, and that 60-min forecasts of WRF error, which can then be used to adjust forecasts, can be made with an LSTM with great accuracy. Nowcasting of temperature and wind speed over a 10-min period using an LSTM produced very low error and especially skillful forecasts of maximum and minimum values over the turbine plant area.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of time-frequency-analysis techniques applied in building energy data noise cancellation for building load forecasting: A real-building case study

Time-frequency analysis that disaggregates a signal in both time and frequency domain is an important supporting technique for building energy analysis such as noise cancellation in data-driven building load forecasting. There is a gap in the literature related to comparing various time–frequency-analysis techniques, especially discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and empirical mode decomposition (EMD), to guide the selection and tuning of time–frequency-analysis techniques in data-driven building load forecasting. This article provides a framework to conduct a comprehensive comparison among thirteen DWT/EMD techniques with various parameters in a load forecasting modeling task. A real campus building is used as a case study for illustration. The DWT and EMD techniques are also compared under various data-driven modeling algorithms for building load forecasting. The results in the case study show that the load forecasting models trained with noise-cancelled energy data have increased their accuracy to 9.6% on average tested under unseen data. This study also shows that the effectiveness of DWT/EMD techniques depends on the data-driven algorithms used for load forecasting modeling and the training data. Hence, DWT/EMD-based noise cancellation needs customized selection and tuning to optimize their performance for data-driven building load forecasting modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intercomparison of Deep Learning Model Architectures for Atmospheric River Prediction

With a rapid surge in the application of machine learning (ML) for a diverse range of tasks in climate science, the present study addresses a challenge for climate scientists when selecting the optimal ML or deep learning (DL) architecture for a given application. In particular, a DL intercomparison study was performed with a focus on forecasting the position of atmospheric rivers (ARs) on short-range time scales (up to 5-day lead times). AR predictions from multiple DL architectures, including various types of convolutional autoencoders and a vision transformer (ViT), were compared against ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis and hindcasts from a global climate model. DL models with similar trainable parameters were trained on ERA5 reanalysis data and AR positions derived from a thresholding algorithm to ensure a fair comparison among the DL models. Each model’s performance and accuracy in forecasting AR location and key input fields within a 5-day window were assessed using metrics of root-mean-square error, anomaly correlation, and mean intersection over union. The ViT architecture outperformed other autoencoder models in most of the metrics. Incorporating additional meteorological fields only yielded slight improvements in forecasting certain fields at longer lead times. The results also suggest that a smaller number of input time steps or smaller number of autoregressive steps can achieve better prediction skills, while also improving the overall computational efficiency. This research offers valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of different DL techniques for AR forecasting, hopefully guiding the development of improved models for forecasting this phenomenon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simple, low-cost and accurate data-driven geophysical forecasting with learned kernels

Modelling geophysical processes as low-dimensional dynamical systems and regressing their vector field from data is a promising approach for learning emulators of such systems. We show that when the kernel of these emulators is also learned from data (using kernel flows, a variant of cross-validation), then the resulting data-driven models are not only faster than equation-based models but are easier to train than neural networks such as the long short-term memory neural network. In addition, they are also more accurate and predictive than the latter. When trained on geophysical observational data, for example the weekly averaged global sea-surface temperature, considerable gains are also observed by the proposed technique in comparison with classical partial differential equation-based models in terms of forecast computational cost and accuracy. When trained on publicly available re-analysis data for the daily temperature of the North American continent, we observe significant improvements over classical baselines such as climatology and persistence-based forecast techniques. Although our experiments concern specific examples, the proposed approach is general, and our results support the viability of kernel methods (with learned kernels) for interpretable and computationally efficient geophysical forecasting for a large diversity of processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Constrained Data Assimilation Algorithm Based on GSI Hybrid 3D-EnVar and Its Application

Abstract Data assimilation (DA) at mesoscales is important for severe weather forecasts, yet the techniques of data assimilation at this scale remain a challenge. This study introduces dynamical constraints in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional ensemble variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation algorithm to enable the use of high-resolution surface observations of precipitation to improve atmospheric analysis at mesoscales. The constraints use the conservations of mass and moisture. Mass constraint suppresses the unphysical high-frequency oscillation, while moisture conservation constrains the atmospheric states to conform with the observed high-resolution precipitation. We show that the constrained data assimilation (CDA) algorithm significantly reduced the spurious residuals of the mass and moisture budgets compared to the original data assimilation (ODA). A case study is presented for a squall line over the Southern Great Plains on 20 May 2011 during Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program by using ODA or CDA analysis as initial condition of forecasts. The state variables, and the location and intensity of the squall line are better simulated in the CDA experiment. Results show how surface observation of precipitation can be used to improve atmospheric analysis through data assimilation by using the dynamical constraints of mass and moisture conservations.

Wang, Jia↗
DOE OSTI2025

ML-driven Strong Lens Discoveries: Down to θ E ~ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$ and M halo < 10 11 M ⊙

We present results on extending the strong lens discovery space down to much smaller Einstein radii ( θ E ≲ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$) and much lower halo mass (M halo < 10 11 M ⊙ ) through the combination of JWST observations and machine learning (ML) techniques. First, we forecast detectable strong lenses with JWST using CosmoDC2 as the lens catalog, and a source catalog down to 29th magnitude. By further incorporating the VELA hydrodynamical simulations of high-redshift galaxies, we simulate strong lenses. We train a ResNet on these images, achieving near-100% completeness and purity for “conventional” strong lenses ( θ E ≳ $0^{_{''}}_{^.}05$), applicable to JWST, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), the Roman Space Telescope, and Euclid VIS. For the first time, we also search for very low halo mass strong lenses (M halo < 10 11 M ⊙ ) in simulations, with θ E << $0^{_{''}}_{^.}05$, down to the best resolution ($0^{_{''}}_{^.}03$) and depth (10,000 s) limits of JWST using ResNet. A U-Net model is employed to pinpoint these small lenses in images, which are otherwise virtually impossible for human detection. Our results indicate that JWST can find ∼17/deg 2 such low-halo-mass lenses, with the locations of ∼1.1/deg 2 of these detectable by the U-Net at ∼100% precision (and ∼7.0/deg 2 at a 99.0% precision). To validate our model for finding “conventional” strong lenses, we apply it to HST images, discovering two new strong lens candidates previously missed by human classifiers in a crowdsourcing project (E. O. Garvin et al. 2022). This study demonstrates the (potentially “superhuman”) advantages of ML combined with current and future space telescopes for detecting conventional, and especially, low-halo-mass strong lenses, which are critical for testing cold dark matter models.

Silver, Ethan [Harvard University, Cambridge, MA (↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing physics-based input features within a machine learning model to predict wind speed forecasting error

Machine learning is quickly becoming a commonly used technique for wind speed and power forecasting. Many machine learning methods utilize exogenous variables as input features, but there remains the question of which atmospheric variables are most beneficial for forecasting, especially in handling non-linearities that lead to forecasting error. This question is addressed via creation of a hybrid model that utilizes an autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model to make an initial wind speed forecast followed by a random forest model that attempts to predict the ARIMA forecasting error using knowledge of exogenous atmospheric variables. Variables conveying information about atmospheric stability and turbulence as well as inertial forcing are found to be useful in dealing with non-linear error prediction. Streamwise wind speed, time of day, turbulence intensity, turbulent heat flux, vertical velocity, and wind direction are found to be particularly useful when used in unison for hourly and 3 h timescales. The prediction accuracy of the developed ARIMA–random forest hybrid model is compared to that of the persistence and bias-corrected ARIMA models. The ARIMA–random forest model is shown to improve upon the latter commonly employed modeling methods, reducing hourly forecasting error by up to 5 % below that of the bias-corrected ARIMA model and achieving an R 2 value of 0.84 with true wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Value of Information and Data Management Platform Promoting Modern Data Analysis Utilization. STTR Phase I, Final Technical Report

The immense growth in weather and river sensor data availability along with increases in computational power and algorithmic sophistication have enabled the widespread application of physical, machine learning, and artificial intelligence algorithms to river forecasting. The forecasts produced by widely varying model approaches are inherently limited in different ways, such as by the number and quality of training observations, producing biased predictions that achieve optimal skill only over specific ranges of weather and river conditions. Thus, despite the growing availability and new sources of forecasts, hydropower owners cannot fully leverage the information because they lack an effective mechanism to determine the “best” forecast for given conditions or objectives. Tools are needed to consolidate forecast information, demonstrate skill, and extract optimal forecast guidance from the range of possibilities. Such tools will increase uptake and beneficial use of the growing wealth of forecast information, and lead to improved operating decisions, optimal power generation, and enhanced system value. This research proposes to improve the value of forecasts by developing a broadly accessible verification framework and applying machine learning techniques to identify the ‘best’ forecast from an ensemble of sources given the current weather, river, and operating conditions.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Artificial Intelligence Techniques in Smart Grid: A Survey

The smart grid is enabling the collection of massive amounts of high-dimensional and multi-type data about the electric power grid operations, by integrating advanced metering infrastructure, control technologies, and communication technologies. However, the traditional modeling, optimization, and control technologies have many limitations in processing the data; thus, the applications of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques in the smart grid are becoming more apparent. This survey presents a structured review of the existing research into some common AI techniques applied to load forecasting, power grid stability assessment, faults detection, and security problems in the smart grid and power systems. It also provides further research challenges for applying AI technologies to realize truly smart grid systems. Finally, this survey presents opportunities of applying AI to smart grid problems. The paper concludes that the applications of AI techniques can enhance and improve the reliability and resilience of smart grid systems.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2022

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted R 2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neural-network learning of SPOD latent dynamics

Here, we aim to reconstruct the latent space dynamics of high dimensional, quasi-stationary systems using model order reduction via the spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). The proposed method is based on three fundamental steps: in the first, once that the mean flow field has been subtracted from the realizations (also referred to as snapshots), we compress the data from a high-dimensional representation to a lower dimensional one by constructing the SPOD latent space; in the second, we build the time-dependent coefficients by projecting the snapshots containing the fluctuations onto the SPOD basis and we learn their evolution in time with the aid of recurrent neural networks; in the third, we reconstruct the high-dimensional data from the learnt lower -dimensional representation. The proposed method is demonstrated on two different test cases, namely, a compressible jet flow, and a geophysical problem known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation. An extensive comparison between SPOD and the equivalent POD-based counterpart is provided and differences between the two approaches are highlighted. The numerical results suggest that the proposed model is able to provide low rank predictions of complex statistically stationary data and to provide insights into the evolution of phenomena characterized by specific range of frequencies. The comparison between POD and SPOD surrogate strategies highlights the need for further work on the characterization of the interplay of error between data reduction techniques and neural network forecasts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Meeting Global Health Needs via Infectious Disease Forecasting: Development of a Reliable Data-Driven Framework

Infectious diseases (IDs) have a significant detrimental impact on global health. Timely and accurate ID forecasting can result in more informed implementation of control measures and prevention policies. To meet the operational decision-making needs of real-world circumstances, we aimed to build a standardized, reliable, and trustworthy ID forecasting pipeline and visualization dashboard that is generalizable across a wide range of modeling techniques, IDs, and global locations. We forecasted 6 diverse, zoonotic diseases (brucellosis, campylobacteriosis, Middle East respiratory syndrome, Q fever, tick-borne encephalitis, and tularemia) across 4 continents and 8 countries. We included a wide range of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models (n=9) and trained them on a multitude of features (average n=2326) within the One Health landscape, including demography, landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. The pipeline and dashboard were created in consideration of crucial operational metrics—prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, spatiotemporal generalizability, uncertainty quantification, and interpretability—which are essential to strategic data-driven decisions. While no single best model was suitable for all disease, region, and country combinations, our ensemble technique selects the best-performing model for each given scenario to achieve the closest prediction. For new or emerging diseases in a region, the ensemble model can predict how the disease may behave in the new region using a pretrained model from a similar region with a history of that disease. The data visualization dashboard provides a clean interface of important analytical metrics, such as ID temporal patterns, forecasts, prediction uncertainties, and model feature importance across all geographic locations and disease combinations. As the need for real-time, operational ID forecasting capabilities increases, this standardized and automated platform for data collection, analysis, and reporting is a major step forward in enabling evidence-based public health decisions and policies for the prevention and mitigation of future ID outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel conditional generative model for efficient ensemble forecasts of state variables in large-scale geological carbon storage

Integrating monitoring data to efficiently update reservoir pressure and CO 2 plume distribution forecasts presents a significant challenge in geological carbon storage (GCS) applications. Inverse modeling techniques are commonly used to fuse observational data and refine reservoir model parameters, thereby improving state variable forecasts. However, these techniques often rely on linear or Gaussian assumptions, which can limit their effectiveness in accurately predicting state variables. Moreover, simulating large-scale three-dimensional (3D) GCS problems is computationally expensive, making iterative runs in inverse problems prohibitive. To address these challenges, we propose a conditional generative model utilizing the score-based diffusion method for real-time 3D pressure and saturation field distribution predictions. Our approach involves solving the score function with a mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to generate labeled data. This data is subsequently employed to train a fully connected neural network, enabling it to learn the conditional sample generator within a supervised learning framework. This method enables the rapid generation of a large ensemble of predictions, facilitating comprehensive uncertainty quantification of state variables. Here we applied our method to forecast the dynamic 3D distributions of pressure and saturation fields over a 30-year injection period. The statistical assessment with low root mean square error (RMSE) values demonstrates that our method can accurately predict the spatiotemporal distributions of both pressure and saturation fields. Moreover, the developed conditional generative model shows high computational efficiency by generating 100 ensemble forecasts of 3D state variables in less than 10 min. The consistency between ensemble averages and ground truth values further illustrates the model’s capability to capture state variable dynamics during the CO 2 plume injection process. Notably, the ground truth values fall within the ensemble forecasts, indicating that our uncertainty quantification effectively captures variability and potential noise in the observations. Thus, the developed conditional generative model proves to be a more efficient, accurate, and practical tool for GCS applications, facilitating timely risk analysis and informed decision-making.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗