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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Associated Particle Imaging of Neutron Inelastic Scatter: 3-D Reconstruction, Capabilities, and Challenges

Associated particle imaging (API) offers unique advantages for 3-D imaging of neutron inelastic scatter, including single-view tomographic imaging and data acquisition when access is limited to only one side of the interrogated object. However, widespread adoption of neutron inelastic scatter imaging has been impeded by several inherent challenges, most prominently spatial resolution, self-attenuation, and statistical noise. Here, in this work, the capabilities and challenges of neutron inelastic scatter imaging are investigated. Instead of focusing on a single imaging application, we identify imaging principles that hold for various neutron inelastic scatter imaging techniques. The primary challenges for 3-D imaging are characterized. The inherent spatial resolution in the time-of-flight (TOF) dimension is derived based on the known system timing resolution and scan geometry. Three reconstruction algorithms are described and demonstrated, including the introduction of modern iterative reconstruction incorporating a physics-based system model. Simulation is leveraged to demonstrate imaging capability with varying coincidence count levels and system timing resolution. An example of measured data with both back-scatter and forward-scatter detector positioning is presented. System design characteristics and their effects on image quality are identified. The imaging framework presented in this article has the potential to facilitate growth of 3-D neutron inelastic scatter API by identifying applications that are a good match for the technique and by targeting system development resources toward the requirements of a specific imaging task.

Associated particle imaging (API)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tendencies of Soil Microbial NO Emissions During HI‐SCALE as Predicted by a Nitrification/Denitrification Scheme

Many atmospheric chemical processes, including the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), are strongly modulated by the reactions of NO and NO 2 (NO x ). Though NO x is controlled by anthropogenic emissions near urban areas, in rural areas soil microbes can be a significant contribution to NO emission globally. The relative rates of emissions of different nitrogen-containing species (e.g., NO, N 2 O, HONO, and N 2 ) are strong functions of soil properties such as temperature, moisture content, pH, and soil carbon and nitrogen pools. However, typical large-scale biogeochemical models either express these emissions simplistically, or not at all. Here we investigate the potential impact of soil NO emissions on atmospheric chemistry and SOA formation over regional and monthly time scales, specifically the 2016 spring and summer Intensive Observational Periods (IOPs) of the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign. We implement the soil NO nitrification/denitrification parameterization of Rasool et al. (2019) into the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), supplemented by a 1-km soil moisture analysis. We then simulate both IOPs over the U.S. Great Plains, evaluating against ground stations and flight data. We show that soil NO emissions can account for a large fraction of total NO x and locally increase O 3 concentrations by up to 25%, while alleviating negative biases of gases and aerosols toward observations. Soil moisture and temperature changes between IOP1 and IOP2 lead to overall differences in emissions, but with large regional variability due to heterogeneous surface characteristics.

Atmoshpheric Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gallium oxide (Ga 2 O 3 ) energy dependent scintillation response to fast neutrons and flash gamma-rays

Gallium oxide is a newly emerged ultrawide bandgap (4.9 eV) semiconductor that is suitable as a combined electronics and radiation detection platform. We have experimentally demonstrated fast neutron and gamma-ray scintillation from Czochralski-grown β-Ga 2 O 3 in a recent series (October 2023) of experiments at the unmoderated pulsed neutron spallation source located at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. Using the neutron time-of-flight (TOF) technique and a fast-gated intensified CCD camera, we observed energy-dependent neutron scintillation for neutron energies ranging from 1 to 400 MeV, including the 14.1 MeV neutron energy relevant to D–T fusion. Neutron flux is quantified and calibrated by cascading the scintillator after the fission chamber, enabling a detailed analysis of temporal and energy-dependent characteristics of the scintillation events. Further, a pronounced scintillation signal from the spallation gamma flash with a temporal full width of half maximum of ~4 ns is indicative of the material’s rapid response. Neutron energy dependent scintillation is observed using the TOF method at a 22.6-m distance from the neutron source. These results highlight the possibility of developing a Ga 2 O 3 based fusion neutron diagnostic platform integrated with both scintillation and electronics functions on the integrated chip scale.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-resolution Arctic Shrub Cover Dataset Derived from UAS and Airborne SfM and LiDAR (2013-2025)

We synthesized 177 unoccupied aerial system flights and 77 airborne flights across the Arctic and created a multi-resolution benchmark data of low-to-tall shrub fractional cover leveraging Structure-from-Motion and Light Detection and Ranging. The resulting dataset covered a total of 1899 km2 across Alaska, Western Canada, Sweden, and Siberian Arctic, including key sites from the Oro Arctic to the High Arctic. The dataset is organized into 6 primary data collection directories (“Abisko,” “AWI,” “ERE,” “Fairbanks,” “NGEE,” “Toolik”), each containing site and flight subdirectories. Flight directories include shrub cover rasters (*.tifs) at 1 m, 5 m, and 30 m resolution, the canopy height model at 1 m resolution (*.tifs), and a bounding box *.kml file. For the AWI, Abisko, NGEE, and Fairbanks collections, we also include the GCC raster at 1 m resolution (*.tif). Files are organized by Collection > Site > Flight Name > Data Files. Flight rasters are in the local UTM zone and the .kml files are in the geographic coordinate system EPSG 4326. We also include a .csv file that details the source datasets for every flight. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

canopy height model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Entrainment–Mixing Characteristics through Direct Comparisons of Drop Size Distributions Using In Situ Observations from ACE-ENA

Abstract Constraining the impacts of entrainment and associated mixing (i.e., entrainment–mixing) on cloud properties continues to be difficult, partly due to observational uncertainties as well as a lacking consensus of which methodologies for diagnosing entrainment–mixing are most appropriate. This study introduces a novel method to evaluate the presence and degree of inhomogeneous and homogeneous mixing using ∼100 h of in situ observations from a research aircraft over the northeastern Atlantic. Specifically, drop size distributions are compared between regions containing negligible and significant entrainment for select flight legs, making a direct characterization of the degree of homogeneous and inhomogeneous mixing possible. A measure of drop concentration variance is used as a proxy variable to diagnose entrainment–mixing. Results correspond well with entrainment–mixing metrics, showing lower Damköhler numbers where drop size distributions shift toward smaller drop sizes (i.e., inhomogeneous mixing) and greater transition length scales where drop size distributions do not (i.e., homogeneous mixing). Inhomogeneous mixing occurs in most samples from Aerosol and Cloud Experiment in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) (regardless of homogeneous mixing frequencies increasing with increasing spatial resolution from ∼100 to ∼10 m) and is associated with decreased drop size relative dispersion and both greater aerosol and drop concentrations compared with homogeneous mixing. Precipitating clouds have a greater frequency of homogeneous mixing compared with nonprecipitating clouds. The proposed methodology is similarly applied to in situ observations of southeast Pacific stratocumulus, shallow convective clouds over central Oklahoma and low-level clouds over the Southern Ocean. All four locations are primarily dominated by inhomogeneous mixing with minimal variability among each region.

Clouds↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fine-scale vegetation composition and structure shape spatiotemporal variation in surface albedo across a low Arctic tundra landscape

The unprecedented rate of warming in the Arctic is driving changes in the structure and composition of tundra vegetation. Increases in deciduous tall shrub cover, height, and density are of particular concern, as these changes alter local surface albedo in ways that could amplify effects on the regional surface energy budget (SEB). Despite this importance, significant uncertainties remain in understanding the interplay between fine-scale vegetation patterns and emergent albedo dynamics across space and time. Here, we address these uncertainties by (1) quantifying spatiotemporal variation in surface shortwave albedo and (2) determining the relative influence of fine-scale vegetation composition, structure, and environmental conditions on albedo across a representative low-Arctic tundra landscape on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. To do this, we synthesized multi-scale, multi-platform remote sensing observations, including a novel Landsat-derived albedo time series, a fine-scale map of Arctic plant functional type (PFT) fractional cover, and airborne LiDAR estimates of canopy height and topography. We show that there are substantial reductions in winter albedo for pixels dominated by tall, woody PFTs (28.13%) relative to pixels dominated by non-woody vegetation, but almost no change in summer albedo (3% increase). Further, we identified a unimodal trend in the relationship between canopy height and the timing of the springtime transition from high (snowy) to low (leafy) albedo (peak at 5.5 m), possibly because of competing ‘snow-fence’ and ‘protrusion’ snow-shrub interactions. To explore the primary drivers of albedo, we constructed a random forest model and found that canopy height and the fractional cover of woody PFTs were as- or more important predictors of winter albedo than topographic features. These findings provide strong evidence for the impacts of local vegetation characteristics on regional surface albedo, highlighting the need for better quantification of snow-shrub interactions to accurately predict the Arctic’s SEB under future environmental change.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scaling Arctic landscape and permafrost features improves active layer depth modeling

Tundra ecosystems in the Arctic store up to 40% of global below-ground organic carbon but are exposed to the fastest climate warming on Earth. However, accurately monitoring landscape changes in the Arctic is challenging due to the complex interactions among permafrost, micro-topography, climate, vegetation, and disturbance. This complexity results in high spatiotemporal variability in permafrost distribution and active layer depth (ALD). Moreover, these key tundra processes interact at different scales, and an observational mismatch can limit our understanding of intrinsic connections and dynamics between above and below-ground processes. Consequently, this could limit our ability to model and anticipate how ALD will respond to climate change and disturbances across tundra ecosystems. In this paper, we studied the fine-scale heterogeneity of ALD and its connections with land surface characteristics across spatial and spectral scales using a combination of ground, unoccupied aerial system, airborne, and satellite observations. We showed that airborne sensors such as AVIRIS-NG and medium-resolution satellite Earth observation systems like Sentinel-2 can capture the average ALD at the landscape scale. We found that the best observational scale for ALD modeling is heavily influenced by the vegetation and landform patterns occurring on the landscape. Landscapes characterized by small-scale permafrost features such as polygon tussock tundra require high-resolution observations to capture the intrinsic connections between permafrost and small-scale land surface and disturbance patterns. Conversely, in landscapes dominated by water tracks and shrubs, permafrost features manifest at a larger scale and our model results indicate the best performance at medium resolution (5 m), outperforming both higher (0.4 m) and lower resolution (10 m) models. This transcends our study to show that permafrost response to climate change may vary across dominant ecosystem types, driven by different above- and below-ground connections and the scales at which these connections are happening. We thus recommend tailoring observational scales based on landforms and characteristics for modeling permafrost distribution, thereby mitigating the influences of spatial-scale mismatches and improving the understanding of vegetation and permafrost changes for the Arctic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global characterization of a laser-generated neutron source

Laser-driven neutron sources are routinely produced by the interaction of laser-accelerated protons with a converter. They present complementary characteristics to those of conventional accelerator-based neutron sources (e.g. short pulse durations, enabling novel applications like radiography). We present here results from an experiment aimed at performing a global characterization of the neutrons produced using the Titan laser at the Jupiter Laser Facility (Livermore, USA), where protons were accelerated from 23 $\mathrm {\mu }$ m thick plastic targets and directed onto a LiF converter to produce neutrons. For this purpose, several diagnostics were used to measure these neutron emissions, such as CR-39, activation foils, time-of-flight detectors and direct measurement of $^7{\rm Be}$ residual activity in the LiF converters. The use of these different, independently operating diagnostics enables comparison of the various measurements performed to provide a robust characterization. These measurements led to a neutron yield of $2.0\times 10^{9}$ neutrons per shot with a modest angular dependence, close to that simulated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proton discrimination in CLYC for fast neutron spectroscopy

The Cs 2 LiYCl 6 :Ce (CLYC) elpasolite scintillator is known for its response to fast and thermal neutrons along with good γ-ray energy resolution. While the 35 Cl(n,p) reaction has been identified as a potential means for CLYC-based fast neutron spectroscopy in the absence of time-of-flight (TOF), previous efforts to functionalize CLYC as a fast neutron spectrometer have been thwarted by the inability to isolate proton interactions from 6 Li(n,α) and 35 Cl(n,α) signals. This work introduces a new approach to particle discrimination in CLYC for fission spectrum neutrons using a multi-gate charge integration algorithm that provides excellent separation between protons and heavier charged particles. Neutron TOF data were collected using a 252 Cf source, an array of EJ-309 organic liquid scintillators, and a 6 Li-enriched CLYC scintillator outfitted with fast electronics. Modal waveforms were constructed corresponding to the different reaction channels, revealing significant differences in the pulse characteristics of protons and heavier charged particles at ultrafast, fast, and intermediate time scales. These findings informed the design of a pulse shape discrimination algorithm, which was validated using the TOF data. This study also proposes an iterative subtraction method to mitigate contributions from confounding reaction channels in proton and heavier charged particle pulse height spectra, opening the door for CLYC-based fast neutron and γ-ray spectroscopy while preserving sensitivity to thermal neutron capture signals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data collected using small uncrewed aircraft systems during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER)

Abstract. The main goal of the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) project was to further understand the role that regional circulations and aerosol loading play in the convective cloud life cycle across the greater Houston, Texas, area. To accomplish this goal, the United States Department of Energy and research partners collaborated to deploy atmospheric observing systems across the region. Cloud and precipitation radars, radiosondes, and air quality sensors captured atmospheric and cloud characteristics. A dense lower-atmospheric dataset was developed using ground-based remote sensors, a tethersonde, and uncrewed aerial systems (UASs). TRACER-UAS is a subproject that deployed two UAS platforms to gather high-resolution observations in the lower atmosphere between 1 June and 30 September 2022. The University of Oklahoma CopterSonde and the University of Colorado Boulder RAAVEN (Robust Autonomous Aerial Vehicle – Endurant Nimble) were flown at two coastal locations between the Gulf of Mexico and Houston. The University of Colorado Boulder RAAVEN gathered measurements of atmospheric thermodynamic state, winds and turbulence, and aerosol size distribution. Meanwhile, the University of Oklahoma CopterSonde system operated on a regular basis to resolve the vertical structure of the thermodynamic and kinematic state. Together, a complementary dataset of over 200 flight hours across 61 d was generated, and data from each platform proved to be in strong agreement. In this paper, the platforms and respective data collection and processing are described. The dataset described herein provides information on boundary layer evolution, the sea breeze circulation, conditions prior to and nearby deep convection, and the vertical structure and evolution of aerosols. The quality-controlled TRACER-UAS observations from the CopterSonde and RAAVEN can be found at https://doi.org/10.5439/1969004 (Lappin, 2023) and https://doi.org/10.5439/1985470 (de Boer, 2023), respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Characteristic Droplet Size Distributions in Large Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Clouds

Cloud processes relevant to radiative and precipitation properties depend on the shape of the cloud droplet size distribution. Recent holographic observations revealed that cloud droplet populations do not have the same size distribution shapes throughout but form regions of characteristic distributions with similar microphysical properties. We investigate the existence and properties of these characteristic distributions within Large‐Eddy Simulations of stratocumulus clouds using Lagrangian and bin microphysics schemes. Distribution types are identified, revealing localized characteristic distributions that vary on the scale of the largest convective cell for simulations with bin microphysics. The results from the Lagrangian microphysics scheme hint at similar behavior. Compared to observations, the simulated clouds are much more uniform. Analysis of the LES results suggests a connection to the local entrainment rate, so the poorly resolved entrainment interface in LES may be a cause of the uniformity. The uniformity of the large‐scale forcing could also be a factor.

cloud droplet size distributions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ground calibration plan for the Athena/X-IFU microcalorimeter spectrometer

The X-ray Integral Field Unit is the X-ray imaging spectrometer on board one of ESA’s next large missions, Athena. Athena is set to investigate the theme of the Hot and Energetic Universe, with a launch planned in the late-2030s. Based on a high-sensitivity transition edge sensor (TES) detector array operated at very low temperature (50 mK), X-IFU will provide spatially resolved high-resolution spectroscopy of the X-ray sky in the 0.2 to 12 keV energy band, with an energy resolution goal of 4 eV up to 7 keV [3 eV design goal]. This work presents the current calibration plan of the X-IFU. It provides the requirements applicable to the X-IFU calibration, describes the overall calibration strategy, and details the procedure and sources needed for the ground calibration of each parameter or characteristics of the X-IFU.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the Outer Heliosphere Through ENA Observations from IMAP

The Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) mission is poised to revolutionize our understanding of two of the most central issues in heliophysics today: the nature of the interaction of the solar wind with the local interstellar medium (LISM), and the acceleration of energetic particles throughout the heliosphere. Here we focus on the anticipated contributions to this endeavor by measurement of hydrogen energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) that emanate from the solar wind–LISM interface region. ENA imaging allows us to remotely sense the structure and plasma characteristics of the heliosheath and the LISM just beyond the heliopause, and how these regions evolve in response to solar activity. These instruments, IMAP-Lo, IMAP-Hi, and IMAP-Ultra, cover energies from 10 eV to 300 keV with unprecedented angular resolution, energy resolution, and detection sensitivity. In this paper, we present the IMAP mission science specific to the study of the heliosphere/LISM interaction. We review what we have learned about the heliosphere interaction based on prior observations and theoretical studies. We then present the outstanding science questions that have consequently arisen and how IMAP plans to resolve them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

XRISM/Resolve view of Abell 2319: Turbulence, sloshing, and ICM dynamics

Here, we present results from XRISM/Resolve observations of the core of the galaxy cluster Abell 2319, focusing on its kinematic properties. The intracluster medium (ICM) exhibits temperatures of approximately 8 keV across the core, with a prominent cold front and a high-temperature region (⁠~11 keV) in the north-west. The average gas velocity in the 3' x 4' region around the brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) covered by two Resolve pointings is consistent with that of the BCG to within 40 km s -1 ⁠ and we found modest average velocity dispersion of 230–250 km s -1 ⁠. On the other hand, spatially resolved spectroscopy reveals interesting variations. A blueshift of up to ~230 km s -1 ⁠ is observed around the east edge of the cold front, where the gas with the lowest specific entropy is found. The region further south inside the cold front shows only a small velocity difference from the BCG; however, its velocity dispersion is enhanced to ~400 km s -1 ⁠, implying the development of turbulence. These characteristics indicate that we are observing sloshing motion with some inclination angle following BCG and that gas phases with different specific entropy participate in sloshing with their own velocities, as expected from simulations. No significant evidence for a high-redshift ICM component associated with the subcluster Abell 2319B was found in the region covered by the current Resolve pointings. These results highlight the importance of sloshing and turbulence in shaping the internal structure of Abell 2319. Further deep observations are necessary to better understand the mixing and turbulent processes within the cluster.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of a refractory metal protective barrier on uranium carbonitride ceramic–metallic composites exposed to a high temperature hydrogen environment

Uranium nitride has been under consideration at NASA and the Department of Energy for nuclear thermal propulsion applications intended for deep space exploration vehicles. It is critical to the success of the technology development that the behavior of the fuel system is properly characterized in operational environments. This body of work fabricated ceramic metal composites consisting of uranium ceramic fuel in a molybdenum and molybdenum–tungsten metal matrix, both with and without an exterior molybdenum barrier. Specimens were introduced to a high temperature hydrogen environment and characterized through x-ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and energy dispersive spectroscopy to identify characteristic changes. A portion of the specimens was fabricated with a 1.27 mm thick molybdenum barrier in order to isolate the material from the hydrogen environment. Instability of the uranium nitride occurred as low as 2073 K, leading to aggressive instability approaching 2658 K. Carbon reactions with the metal matrix were observed as well as alloying between the uranium and metal matrix constituents. The liquid uranium resulting from the instability of the uranium nitride was observed to attack the grain boundaries of the refractory metal, resulting in the formation of a liquid uranium molybdenum eutectic melt. Specimens encased in a barrier experienced similar results. The authors conclude this is a significant challenge to applications of this cermet at these temperatures. Alternate configurations with resilient hermetic seals or lower temperature applications such as power reactors may have more success.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable & Non-Destructive Characterization Strategy to Study Semiconductor/Dielectric Interfaces and Predict Wafer-Level Device Performance

The defect density present at the dielectric-semiconductor interface in an MOS structure directly influences the channel carrier characteristics in semiconductor devices, especially in wide bandgap material systems used in power devices. While these trap defects are typically quantified through electrical characterization of MOS-capacitor test structures, this treatment offers very little insight into the physical nature of interface defects. Such shortcomings demand a physical characterization strategy to guide fabrication optimization. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is suggested as a viable technique to determine chemical data for dielectric interfaces formed using atomic layer deposition (ALD) on GaN substrates. Previously, 1-D XPS characterization has confirmed the presence of a Ga x O y interlayer between ALD dielectrics and the GaN substrate. In this work, XPS data is serially collected to form 2-D images of an ALD-Al 2 O 3 /GaN interface as a proof-of-concept experiment for in-situ XPS quality monitoring during ALD processing. The information provided by this work reveals some of the challenges for incorporating XPS characterization as an in-situ strategy during fabrication of GaN-based devices. Separately, electrical mapping of a 2-D array of ALD-Al 2 O 3 /GaN MOS-capacitor devices provide a means to quantify the spatial variations in interface quality across a single wafer. Physical characterization techniques, such as time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectroscopy, provide additional chemical information about the Al 2 O 3 /Ga x O y /GaN structure that complement the electrical mapping results. This analysis shows that a higher Ga x O y content correlates with higher interface state defects for trap energies deep in the band gap.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale landscape characteristics, vegetation composition, and snowmelt timing control phenological heterogeneity across low-Arctic tundra landscapes in Western Alaska

The Arctic is warming at over twice the rate of the rest of the Earth, resulting in significant changes in vegetation seasonality that regulates annual carbon, water, and energy fluxes. However, a crucial knowledge gap exists regarding the intricate interplay among climate, permafrost, and vegetation that generates high phenology variability across extensive tundra landscapes. This oversight has led to significant discrepancies in phenological patterns observed across warming experiments, long-term ecological observations, and satellite and modeling studies, undermining our ability to understand and forecast plant responses to climate change in the Arctic. To address this problem, we assessed plant phenology across three low-Arctic tundra landscapes on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, using a combination of in-situ phenocam observations and high-resolution PlanetScope CubeSat data. We examined the patterns and drivers of phenological diversity across the landscape by (1) quantifying phenological diversity among dominant plant function types (PFTs) and (2) modeling the interrelations between plant phenology and fine-scale landscape features, such as topography, snowmelt, and vegetation. Our findings reveal that both spring and fall phenology varied significantly across Arctic PFTs, accounting for about 25%–44% and 34%–59% of the landscape-scale variation in the start of spring [SOS] and start of fall [SOF], respectively. Deciduous tall shrubs (e.g. alder and willow) had a later SOS (~7 d behind the mean of other PFTs), but completed leaf expansion (within 2 weeks) considerably faster compared to other PFTs. We modeled the landscape-scale variation in SOS and SOF using Random Forest, which showed that plant phenology can be accurately captured by a suite of variables related to vegetation composition, topographic characteristics, and snowmelt timing (variance explained: 53%–68% for SOS and 59%–82% for SOF). Notably, snowmelt timing was a crucial determinant of SOS, a factor often neglected in most spring phenology models. Our study highlights the impact of fine-scale vegetation composition, snow seasonality, and landscape features on tundra phenological heterogeneity. Improved understanding of such considerable intra-site phenological variability and associated proximate controls across extensive Arctic landscapes offers critical insights for representation of tundra phenology in process models and associated impact assessments with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗