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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Challenger Tradgedy was Caused by an Apollo Mistake, Terminating Risk Analysis

NASA’s attitude toward risk changed drastically between the Apollo and Space Shuttle design. [1]Apollo engineers were seriously alarmed about riskbecause of the fatal Apollo 1 fire and the fact that the estimated probability of another fatal accident was extremely high. The predictions were so appalling thatmanagement terminated risk analysis to avoid public apprehension. Because risk analysis was not done, the Space Shuttle design accepted excessively high andunknown risk. The immediate cause of the Challengertragedy was the mistaken decision to launch in coldweather that impaired the O-ring seals, but the fundamental cause was the high risk of the shuttle design. Before Challenger, management asserted that the probability of a fatal accident was 1 in 100,000.Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) found a roughly 1 in 100 chance of a shuttle failure.

Harry W Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Derivation of the Most Influential Medical Conditions for An Extended Duration Artemis Mission

BACKGROUND: The risk of loss of mission due to medical conditions may be influenced by loss of crew life (LOCL), need for evacuation (RTDC; return to definitive care), and crew task time lost. Predicting what medical conditions are most likely to lead to crew morbidity and mortality may influence medical system design, clinical capability prioritization, and research strategies. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) applies Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) methodology to assess these risks. OVERVIEW: A team of subject matter experts (SME) from a variety of medical disciplines developed a consensus-based process to determine 120 of the most clinically relevant medical conditions for long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs) . This IMPACT Condition List (ICL) expanded upon previous work done for Integrated Medical Model (IMM). For each condition a best-case and worst-case definition were derived. These definitions were used to identify probability of occurrence, proportion of cases that are best case vs. worst case, clinical phase duration, and risk of outcomes (task time loss [TTL], RTDC, and LOCL) for both treated and untreated states. These data were sources from existing spaceflight databases (e.g. Longitudinal Survey of Astronaut Health), relevant models (e.g. the ISS fire model), and/or terrestrial literature. Each condition was then tied to diagnostic and therapeutic resources and capabilities. IMPACT was then run for the LDLOLS DRM (see Abstract #2 for this panel). DISCUSSION: This abstract will present the process for generating the IMPACT condition list, the relevant data for each clinical condition, and present results for the ten most influential conditions impacting LOCL, RTDC, and TTL for a representative extended duration Artemis mission.

A Nelson↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Effect of Drinking on Plasma Vasopressin and Renin in Dehydrated Human Subjects

Oropharyngeal mechanisms activated by drinking have been shown to induce a rapid decline in plasma vasopressin which preceeds postabsorptive changes in plasma composition in the dehydrated dog. The present study was undertaken to determine what factor(s) inhibit(s) vasopressin secretion after rehydration in water deprived human subjects. Hematocrit (Hct) and hemoglobin (Hb) were determined on the day of the experiment, together with electrolytes and osmolalities which were measured on freshly separated serum. Plasma was immediately frozen and further analyzed by radioimmunoassay for renin activity (PRA), vasopressin (AVP), and aldosterone. The data were analyzed using an analysis of variance for repeated measurements and significant differences between the dehydrated control period and various time points after the start of rehydration were determined using a multiple-range test. began and reached water replete levels 15 minutes after drinking in the absence of any detectable decline in serum sodium or osmolality, we conclude that 427 oropharyngeal factors, alone or combined with gastric distension account for the extremely rapid inhibition of AVP secretion after drinking in the water-deprived human, as has been shown to be the case in dogs. Our findings are also in agreement wiht the recent demonstration that at the onset of drinking in the dehydrated monkey, there is an abrupt fall in plasma AVP concentration associated with a considerable decrease in the firing rate of the supraoptic neurosecretory neurons.

Geelen, G.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Advanced SAPHIRE 8 Modeling Methods for Probabilistic Risk Assessment via the Systems Analysis Program for Hands-On Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Software P-202

1.1. Overview of the Advanced SAPHIRE Material The Advanced SAPHIRE course material is intended to both (1) provide guidance for learning advanced SAPHIRE features during the class and (2) become a stand-alone reference document after finishing the class. Thus, the format for the class material is a combination of the traditional “overhead-type” of presentation information with a structured, reference-type document. Major topics that are covered in the Advanced SAPHIRE class include: Advanced data base concepts such as Model Type (e.g., random, seismic, fire, flood). Definition of house events and how they are used on a sequence-by-sequence basis to manipulate individual fault tree logic using sequence flag sets or fault tree flag sets. ? Basic event templates, compound basic event equation editors, and human error worksheets. A rule-based event tree top event substitution feature (called the Link Event Tree Rule Editor) which allows for top event substitutions. A rule-based cut set post-processing feature (called the Recovery Rules) which allows cut set manipulation. Cut set analysis based upon rule-based end state categories (called End State Analysis). Cut set generation options for both fault trees and event tree sequences. The large event tree methodology and how SAPHIRE can be used to generate sequence cut sets for this method. The transfer of data between SAPHIRE data bases and between other PRA codes (MAR-D).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗