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32 records · Page 2

Leveraging System Dynamics to Predict the Commercialization Success of Emerging Energy Technologies: Lessons from Wind Energy

The United States urgently needs to tackle the climate crisis while enhancing energy security and resiliency. The complexity of the U.S. energy system, with its interconnected elements, makes predicting future states challenging, especially with the introduction of novel energy systems like wind, solar, clean hydrogen, and advanced nuclear technologies. Modern systems engineering methods and tools can provide deeper insights into these dynamics and future behaviors. This research aims to develop a comprehensive model that captures the main elements and behaviors of new energy technologies within the existing energy system. We hypothesized that the market uptake of novel energy systems is influenced by multiple diverse factors, such as technological learning, availability of resources, and economic incentives; examined the history of electricity generation using land-based wind technologies; and developed a system dynamics model to investigate the relationships between capacity growth and influencing factors, both internal and external. The developed model yielded outcomes that confirmed the hypothesized dynamics of wind energy system diffusion through a quantitative comparison of installed capacity and highlighted the significant influence of resource availability, federal incentives (production tax credits), and technological learning on capacity growth and cost reduction. This research aims to support informed decision-making for investments in novel energy systems and aid in developing effective policies for technology deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY

PFAS Removal by Ion Exchange Resins: Background and Knowledge Gaps with Respect to the Hanford Site

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) have been a rising concern for the past two decades, with the United States Department of Defense and Environmental Protection Agency investing millions of dollars in research into remediation and clean-up technologies. Due to the environmental persistence, toxicity, biological uptake, and ongoing changes in both federal and state regulatory space, understanding the fate and transport of PFAS compounds has been of growing concern to the US Department of Energy (DOE). The DOE’s Hanford Site is investigating historical use of PFAS and will be doing site characterization for PFAS. Thus, PFAS have not yet been identified as a contaminant concern in regulatory documents. Based on historical records that mention the discharge of aqueous film-forming foam containing PFAS and having on-site fire stations (a risk factor for PFAS contamination), it seems likely that environmental releases of PFAS may have occurred. Pump and treat (P&T) remediation is the selected remedy for multiple groundwater contaminant plumes at Hanford. These P&T systems use ion exchange (IX) as a component of aboveground treatment, with the specific resins depending on the target contaminants. There is potential that these IX resins may be able to remove PFAS from groundwater, but investigation is needed to understand affinity/selectivity and removal capacity given the groundwater composition and the operating conditions. This report provides background on PFAS uses and chemistry, then provides a review of IX resin applications for PFAS, identifying knowledge gaps. Recommendations are provided regarding research needed to address knowledge gaps and acquire information needed to propose IX as a future PFAS remediation technology at the Hanford Site, as well as other U.S. Department of Energy sites. Generally, PFAS compounds are fluorinated substances that contain at least one fully fluorinated methyl or methylene carbon – with a few noted exceptions, any chemical with at least a perfluorinated methyl group (–CF3) or a perfluorinated methylene group (–CF2–) is a PFAS. These chemical compounds are characterized as non-biodegradable, non-reactive, non-photolytic, and hydrolysis resistant. This makes them highly recalcitrant within the environment, however polyfluoroalkyl materials are less recalcitrant as the carbon chains contain C–H bonds which are more easily broken than carbon – fluorine (C–F) bonds. The backbone carbon structures are commonly punctuated with a head group, the most well-known of them are perfluorooctanesulfonic acid and perfluorooctanoic acid, which possess a sulfonate and a carboxylate group, respectively. IX resins are marketed for the removal of PFAS from water systems and industrial water, however, the mechanism of removal is not as well understood as for anion or cation removal. A better understanding of the mechanism of removal would enable the development of IX resins that have improved specificity for PFAS removal. Four knowledge gaps were identified: 1) the effect of dissolved ions on the IX resin PFAS removal effectiveness, 2) the effect of additional primary contaminants of concern (PCOCs) or secondary contaminants of concern (SCOCs) on the effectiveness of PFAS via IX resin, 3) the mechanisms of PFAS removal from water, and 4) practical solutions to IX resin regeneration and waste disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W

Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY

Scalable Data Center Capacity for DOE's AI Prototype: A Rapidly Available Gigawatt Data Center for DOE

The multilaboratory Gigawatt Data Center working group was commissioned to identify approaches to rapidly establish federal data centers with scalable capacities up to 1,000 MW. These state-of-the-art facilities will serve as hubs for interdisciplinary collaboration, industry partnerships, and transformative applications of artificial intelligence. The proposed strategic shift includes facilitating multilaboratory collaboration, prioritizing operational efficiency, expanding public–private partnerships, optimizing investments, ensuring long-term contractual flexibility, supporting open science and secure data enclaves, and exploiting high-speed national networks. Owing to their extensive experience and best practices, the US Department of Energy national laboratories are uniquely positioned to lead this initiative. We recommend conducting a feasibility analysis to rapidly identify the optimal sites for this initiative, and the effort will likely involve private industry for design, construction, financing, and operational integration. We also propose establishing multiple geographically diverse sites to ensure energy resilience, high operational reliability, and a diverse user base, thereby effectively addressing the nation’s critical needs.

42 ENGINEERING

Policy Reforms to Unleash Domestic Critical Minerals Mining and Processing

The United States faces growing strategic and economic risks due to its limited ability to mine, process, and refine the minerals required for national defense, energy systems, advanced manufacturing, and emerging technologies. Although the country possesses significant geological resources, development has been slowed by long and unpredictable permitting timelines, fragmented regulatory responsibilities, limited midstream processing capacity, and a shrinking technical workforce. These structural barriers have created supply chain vulnerabilities that constrain industrial growth and reduce national resilience. This report presents a comprehensive set of reforms intended to modernize the nation’s approach to critical minerals. The recommendations address federal permitting, environmental review processes, the legal framework governing mining activities, interagency coordination, domestic processing and refining capacity, and the education and workforce systems needed to support long term industry development. The analysis emphasizes practical steps to shorten project timelines, improve regulatory clarity, expand processing infrastructure, enable recovery from both conventional and nontraditional sources, and update outdated requirements that hinder the development of essential materials. Taken together, the recommended reforms would strengthen domestic supply chains, improve investment certainty, and reduce dependence on external minerals and processing infrastructure. By aligning policy, regulatory frameworks, and workforce capabilities with national needs, the United States can build a more resilient and secure critical minerals ecosystem that supports long term economic competitiveness and technological leadership.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

Integrated System Planning: Emerging Software Requirements in the Power Industry

Power system planning software remains fragmented across organizational boundaries, with specialized tools for capacity expansion, production cost modeling, power flow, and dynamic analysis operating on incompatible data models and assumptions. This article argues that the fragmentation is not merely a technical problem but a predictable consequence of Conway's law: software architectures mirror the departmental structures within which they are developed. Regulatory milestones like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 888 formalized these divisions, but the roots trace back to the distinct engineering disciplines-mechanical, chemical, and electrical-that staffed generation and transmission planning departments in vertically integrated utilities. As the industry moves toward integrated system planning (ISP) that coordinates generation, transmission, and distribution investment decisions, the software ecosystem must evolve accordingly. We identify five categories of software requirements to enable this transition: coherent data inputs decoupled from individual applications, unified and extensible data schemas, modular component representations that support multiple abstraction levels, lifecycle management of planning datasets, and well-defined application programming interface (API) contracts that separate data exchange from algorithmic control. We examine how these requirements interact with three common workflow patterns-serial gate clearing, sequential multiapplication, and convergence oriented-and discuss the interface design principles each demands. We then outline a vision for platform-based planning architectures where specialized analytical services compose through standardized interfaces and where artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML) tools augment decision support within a disciplined software infrastructure. The practices proposed here offer a path from today's siloed tool collections toward collaborative planning ecosystems capable of handling the complexity of modern power system transformation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

U.S. Hydropower Relicensing and License Surrender Data and Metadata, 2026

The U.S. Hydropower Relicensing and License Surrender Database (2026) provides a comprehensive, nationwide snapshot (as of December 31, 2025) of hydropower projects across the United States that are undergoing Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) relicensing or license surrender processes. Compiled by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the dataset includes detailed project-level attributes such as geographic location, ownership type, waterway, project type (hydropower or pumped storage), regulatory milestones (e.g., Notice of Intent, application dates, FERC issuance dates), licensing process type (ILP, TLP, ALP), operational characteristics, capacity changes, settlement agreements, construction or turbine‑generator investments, and project status categories spanning relicensing, surrenders, exemptions, and terminations. Together, the relicensing and surrender records offer a detailed view of regulatory trends, infrastructure transitions, dam removals, and economic drivers influencing the evolution of the U.S. hydropower fleet.

Johnson, Megan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000290141741)

Business Opportunities in Clean Energy Supply Chains: Guidebook for Small and Medium-Sized Automotive Suppliers

This is the final report for the referenced TCF award which ran from Oct. 2019 through Jan. 2024 in conjunction with the industry partner Swift Solar. The long duration of the program was due to several factors including the pandemic and a technical work stoppage due to changes in the scope. Additionally, Swift’s business focus shifted during the course of the program. As a result of these factors, this program underwent two distinct modifications that dramatically changed the work scope. The following report is organized into three separate sections, each of which addresses a distinct work scope. Those scope changes, what necessitated them, and any new tasks/milestones are given, briefly, at the top of each section. The work performed was research on the hybrid halide perovskites (HHP), both the absorber material itself as well as other material layers that are required in a full device stack. At the start of the period of performance, there were two distinct challenges that we sought to address: (1) a wide band gap absorber (>1.6 eV), and (2) a recombination layer for tandem devices that provided good sequestration of the individual cell absorber materials in their respective device layers. NREL had previously published, and patented, advancements in both of these areas and they were the focus of much of the work throughout the program. The auto manufacturing space is evolving quickly. Sales of various electrified vehicles (xEVs) continue to grow steadily, which has medium to long-term ramifications for the thousands of U.S. manufacturers and hundreds of thousands of workers that contribute to the domestic automotive supply chain. In tandem with this growth in xEV sales, domestic clean energy manufacturing is surging (both for the xEV supply chain and other technologies), with public incentives spurring billions in private sector investment. Moreover, the next 2–3 years will see new and expanded industrial facilities come online to make products like hydrogen electrolyzers, solar panels, batteries, advanced electronics—and will create new supply chain needs and business opportunities as they do. DOE’s Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC) and Argonne National Laboratory developed this report to help automotive manufacturers—alongside various business support partners— understand these trends and their response options, and to make the most of current federal assistance programs for manufacturers. These market changes may create opportunities for small- and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs) to expand production, grow profit margins, and diversify their businesses. For instance, SMMs could take advantage of engineering and process design similarities with new end-use industries that might enable greater business growth and stability as markets continue to change.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Detector Materials Scoping Study: Research and Development Recommendations

Radiation detection materials have a unique role in many nuclear security missions. The variety of different applications requires the use of different materials whose characteristics are determined by the specific application requirements. While baseline capabilities have been established to use radiation detection in these applications, the potential to greatly advance those capabilities still exists through the development of superior radiation detection materials and/or the development of new materials that enable new technologies to be implemented more effectively. In 2024 the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D) Near Field Detection Portfolio charged a detector materials scoping study, composed of a group of radiation-detection materials subject matter experts, to produce a community-wide consensus view of the current state of radiation materials research and to set recommendations for expanded investment over a ten-year time frame. This scoping study sought to understand and document the landscape of how radiation detection materials are used, what characteristics drive the selection of various materials, and what developments are needed to drive the state of the art. To respond to this charge, the scoping study created three working groups, each focusing on a different topical area in radiation detection materials research - Semiconductor Materials, Inorganic Scintillators and Organic Scintillators - with the task to identify the current state of the art in materials research and to provide mission-relevant research and development recommendations. Each working group was chaired by two members of the project team with widely recognized expertise in the field. Solicitations were sent out to experts at the DOE national laboratories, industry, academia and federal government agencies to participate in these working groups. The working groups met at regular intervals throughout 2024 and early 2025, each delivering a technical roadmap designed to enable the pursuit of R&D more intensely on high-impact materials challenges and detector solutions that are deemed as the greatest strategic value to DNN R&D and its stakeholders. The roadmap is also intended to help communicate recommended programmatic priorities within DNN R&D and across the nonproliferation and research communities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Preparing For Advanced Air Mobility: A System-Level Framework For Infrastructure, Investment, and Deployment

Advanced air mobility (AAM) is moving from demonstration toward early deployment, supported by a growing national strategy that outlines how these systems may evolve across airspace, infrastructure, and operations. As this transition takes shape, a more practical question comes into focus: what does it mean to be ready? This paper introduces a Capability Maturity Model (CMM) as a structured way to think about that challenge. Rather than treating readiness as a fixed condition, it frames it as a progression - one that develops across multiple, interdependent domains over time.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

What Rocks and What's Not So Hot: U.S. Industry Perception of Geothermal Tax Credits

Nationwide, four U.S. federal tax credits promote the adoption of geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal power plants and were recently updated with enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).1 However, uptake of these geothermal tax credits has lagged behind other eligible technologies.2 With the support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)'s Geother- mal Technologies Office, researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) engaged with the geothermal industry to determine: 1) how the industry will use the tax credits, 2) remaining challenges to utilizing tax credits, and 3) suggestions on solutions that could help accelerate tax credit uptake. Insights were obtained through two industry question- naires (59 responses)3 and 21 interviews with representatives from geothermal industry groups, project developers, com- ponent manufacturers, and financiers, as shown in Figures 1 and 2. This article synthesizes the industry's perception of these tax credits, i.e., Section 25D (residential GHP), Section 48 (commer- cial GHP), Section 48E (investment tax credit [ITC] for electricity), and Section 45Y (production tax credit [PTC] for electricity).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Unlocking the benefits of transparent and reusable science for climate-risk management

People around the world seek climate-risk information to guide their decisions. For instance, projections about future flood risk inform where households choose to live, how lenders manage credit risks, and which communities receive federal funding. Yet data limitations and fundamental validation challenges raise important concerns about the reliability of such projections. The principles of transparency and reusability help address these concerns by enabling scrutiny of assumptions and methods, development of foundational data and tools, and consistent application of evaluation standards. While there is ongoing debate about how much transparency commercial climate-risk services should provide, many expect non-commercial actors to lead the way on operationalizing transparency and reusability to fulfill their knowledge-building role in the climate-risk ecosystem. However, despite prominent success stories, we find a substantial gap between principles and practice: only four percent of the most-cited peer-reviewed climate-risk studies in recent years fully share their data and code despite this being a widely accepted minimum standard for transparency. We highlight low-cost measures that non-commercial researchers can take now to improve transparency and reusability. We also emphasize that transformative progress requires substantial investment, cross-sector collaboration, and careful consideration of tradeoffs, data rights, and multiple perspectives on equity. We hope this perspective accelerates both immediate actions and longer-term conversations to improve the ability of science to effectively support timely, evidence-based, and sound climate-risk management.

Open Science

From Silos to Synergy: Identifying a Roadmap for Cross-Sector Research to Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition

The U.S. Department of Energy's blueprints for the transportation, buildings, and electricity sectors call for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. These plans focus on zero-emission vehicles, investments in transit, energy-efficient buildings, and the widespread adoption and deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage and energy-efficient appliances. However, these sectors are often studied and modeled in isolation, overlooking how household decisions to adopt clean technologies in one sector influence others. This study, led by an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), explores opportunities for cross-sector collaboration to drive more effective and equitable decarbonization. Through discussions with 22 NREL researchers across transportation, building, solar, and grid sectors, the study highlights the need for integrated tools and models that capture interactions between these sectors. Key insights include the need for data standardization and interoperability to enable cross-sector analysis and decision-making. Strengthening utility partnerships is also critical to align energy policies with decarbonization goals and manage the increased demand for renewable energy. The study also emphasizes the importance of equity in the clean energy transition, calling for targeted incentives and support to ensure that low-income and underserved communities benefit from clean technologies like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. To support these efforts, innovative funding mechanisms must be expanded to facilitate interdisciplinary research, such as city-specific decarbonization plans and federal projects like DOE"s Standard Scenarios. By encouraging collaboration and integrating cross-sector insights, this study aims to provide a roadmap to accelerate the clean energy transition and ensure it is both sustainable and inclusive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY