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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Continual Learning for Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate under dynamically changing conditions, which often lead to data distribution drifts. These drifts pose significant challenges for Machine Learning (ML) models, which typically fail to maintain performance when faced with such non-stationary data. In particle accelerators, the primary sources of these data drifts include changes in accelerator settings and non-measured parameters such as machine degradation and environmental factors. Previous research has proposed conditional models to handle multiple beam configurations effectively; however, it is challenging to train the ML models on all possible configuration settings. Additionally, conditional models alone can not address performance degradation caused by drifts due to non-measured factors. These limitations contribute to a significant gap between ML development and its deployment in real-world operational settings. To bridge this gap, in this paper, we identify some of the key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. In addition, we present a practical use case where a conditional Auto-Encoder model coupled with memory-based continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance even when underlying data drifts

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Data‐Driven Discovery of High‐Performance Silver Selenide‐Based Thermoelectric Composites

Optimizing material compositions often enhances thermoelectric performances. However, the large selection of possible base elements and dopants results in a vast composition design space that is too large to systematically search using solely domain knowledge. To address this challenge, a hybrid data-driven strategy that integrates Bayesian optimization (BO) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is proposed to optimize the composition of five elements (Ag, Se, S, Cu, and Te) in AgSe-based thermoelectric materials. Data is collected from the literature to provide prior knowledge for the initial GPR model, which is updated by actively collected experimental data during the iteration between BO and experiments. Within seven iterations, the optimized AgSe-based materials prepared using a simple high-throughput ink mixing and blade coating method deliver a high power factor of 2100 µW m −1 K −2 , which is a 75% improvement from the baseline composite (nominal composition of Ag 2 Se 1 ). In conclusion, the success of this study provides opportunities to generalize the demonstrated active machine learning technique to accelerate the development and optimization of a wide range of material systems with reduced experimental trials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anomaly detection in collider physics via factorized observables

To maximize the discovery potential of high-energy colliders, experimental searches should be sensitive to unforeseen new physics scenarios. This goal has motivated the use of machine learning for unsupervised anomaly detection. In this paper, we introduce a new anomaly detection strategy called : factorized observables for regressing conditional expectations. Our approach is based on the inductive bias of factorization, which is the idea that the physics governing different energy scales can be treated as approximately independent. Assuming factorization holds separately for signal and background processes, the appearance of nontrivial correlations between low- and high-energy observables is a robust indicator of new physics. Under the most restrictive form of factorization, a machine-learned model trained to identify such correlations will in fact converge to the optimal new physics classifier. We test on a benchmark anomaly detection task for the Large Hadron Collider involving collimated sprays of particles called jets. By teasing out correlations between the kinematics and substructure of jets, our method can reliably extract percent-level signal fractions. This strategy for uncovering new physics adds to the growing toolbox of anomaly detection methods for collider physics with a complementary set of assumptions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning the factors controlling mineral dissolution in three-dimensional fracture networks: applications in geologic carbon sequestration

We perform a set of high-fidelity simulations of geochemical reactions within three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) and use various machine learning techniques to determine the primary factors controlling mineral dissolution. The DFN are partially filled with quartz that gradually dissolves until quasi-steady state conditions are reached. At this point, we measure the quartz remaining in each fracture within the domain as our primary quantity of interest. We observe that a primary sub-network of fractures exists, where the quartz has been fully dissolved out. This reduction in resistance to flow leads to increased flow channelization and reduced solute travel times. However, depending on the DFN topology and the rate of dissolution, we observe substantial variability in the volume of quartz remaining within fractures outside of the primary subnetwork. This variability indicates an interplay between the fracture network structure and geochemical reactions. We characterize the features controlling these processes by developing a machine learning framework to extract their relevant impact. Specifically, we use a combination of high-fidelity simulations with a graph-based approach to study geochemical reactive transport in a complex fracture network to determine the key features that control dissolution. We consider topological, geometric and hydrological features of the fracture network to predict the remaining quartz in quasi-steady state. We found that the dissolution reaction rate constant of quartz and the distance to the primary sub-network in the fracture network are the two most important features controlling the amount of quartz remaining. This study is a first step towards characterizing the parameters that control carbon mineralization using an approach with integrates computational physics and machine learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration and Evaluation of Explainable and Trustworthy Predictive Technology for Condition-based Maintenance

The domestic nuclear power plant (NPP) fleet has historically relied on labor-intensive and time-consuming predictive maintenance (PdM) programs, thus driving up operation and maintenance (O&M) costs to achieve high-capacity factors. Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine-learning (ML) can help simplify complex problems such as diagnosing equipment degradation to enable more effective decision-making efforts. The benefits of AI will be felt through more efficient plant O&M, improved work processes, and better integration of people and technology. Together, these benefits hold the promise to make nuclear power more sustainable by reducing O&M costs while improving employee engagement. While AI and ML technologies hold significant promise for the nuclear industry, there are challenges or barriers to their adoption. Explainability and trustworthiness of AI are two salient challenges that need to be addressed for wider deployment of these technologies in NPPs. This research focuses specifically on addressing the explainability and trustworthiness of AI technologies to advance the human, technical, and organization (HTO) readiness levels in adopting a risk-informed PdM strategy at commercial NPPs. In addition, this approach can be adapted to enhance the acceptability of AI in other nuclear applications with a few application-specific modifications. The technical approach ensuring wider adoption of AI technologies was developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL)—in collaboration with Public Service Enterprise Group (PSEG), Nuclear, LLC—by utilizing the circulating water system (CWS) at two PSEG-owned plant sites for demonstration. Focused user studies were performed in collaboration with subject matter experts (SMEs) from PSEG and other nuclear domains to enhance human and organization readiness by building trust in AI-informed technologies. VIsualization for PrEdictive maintenance Recommendation (VIPER)—a Battelle Energy Alliance, LLC, copyrighted software—was developed and expanded to provide a user-centric visualization by incorporating inputs from the collaborating utility, human factors engineering guidelines, and data analysts. The VIPER software enables users, who may be unfamiliar with ML in general, to be interactively engaged by asking technical questions about PdM, work orders, diagnosis results and their confidence levels, the kind of data being used, and the types of ML algorithms employed. This interactive engagement enhances explainability and builds trust. One of the enabling accomplishments was the integration of large language models (LLMs), both text-based and vision-based, in the VIPER software.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A semi–automatic analytical methodology for characterizing the energy consumption of MRI systems using load duration curves

Background and purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions from the healthcare sector, and efforts to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption rely on quantification of the characteristics of energy consumption. The purpose of this work was to develop a semi-automatic analytical methodology for the characterization of the energy consumption of MRI systems using only the load duration curve (LDC). LDCs are a fundamental tool used across various fields to analyze and understand the behavior of loads over time. Methods: An electric current transformer sensor and data logger were installed on two 3T MRI scanners from two vendors, termed M1 (outpatient scanner) and M2 (inpatient/emergency scanner). Data was collected for 1 month (7/11/2023 to 8/11/2023). Active power was calculated, assuming a balanced three-phase system, using the average current measured across all three phases, a 480 V reference voltage for both machines, and vendor-provided power factors. An LDC was constructed for each system by sorting the active power values in descending order and computing the cumulative time (in units of percentage) for each data point. The first derivative of the LDC was then computed (LDC’), smoothed by convolution with a window function (sLDC’), and used to detect transitions between different system modes including (in descending power levels): scan, prepared-to-scan, idle, low-power, and off. The final, segmented LDC was used to measure time (% total time), total energy (kWh), and mean power (kW) for each system mode on both scanners. The method was validated by comparing mean power values, computed using the segmented 1-month LDC, for each nonproductive system mode (i.e., prepared-to-scan, idle, lower-power, and off) against power levels measured after a deliberate system shutdown was performed for each scanner (1 day worth of data). Results: The validation revealed differences in mean power values <1.4% for all nonproductive modes and both scanners. In the scan system mode, the mean power values ranged from 29.8 to 37.2 kW and the total energy consumed for 1 month ranged from 11 106 to 14 466 kWh depending on the scanner. Over the course of 1 month, the portion of time the scanners were in nonproductive modes ranged from 76% to 80% across scanners and the nonproductive energy consumption ranged from 8010 to 6722 kWh depending on the scanner. The M1 (outpatient) scanner consumed 99.9 and 183.9 kWh/day in idle mode for weekdays and weekends, respectively, because the scanner spent 23% more time proportionally in idle mode on the weekends. Conclusions: A semi-automatic method for quantifying energy consumption characteristics of MRI scanners was introduced and validated. This method is relatively simple to implement as it requires only power data from the scanners and avoids the technical challenges associated with extracting and processing scanner log files. Finally, the methodology enables quantitative evaluation of the power, time, and energy characteristics of MRI scanners in scan and nonproductive system modes, providing baseline data and the capability of identifying potential opportunities for enhancing the energy efficiency of MRI scanners.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solidification cracking of refractory alloys: a computational and machine learning study to investigate composition-dependence for improved weldability and additive manufacturability

Large-batch numerical, CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD)-based solidification cracking calculations are performed and then analyzed with machine learning methods to generate models that relate chemistry of refractory alloys to cracking susceptibility. Kou’s solidification cracking index is used to study the refractory alloys including O, N, C binary mixtures with Mo, Ta, Nb, and W, the molybdenum-based TZM, Niobium-based C103, and Tantalum-based T111 and Ta-10 W, as well as hypothetical refractory ternary alloys. Findings strongly validate Kou’s Crack Susceptibility Index (CSI) against Varestraint test data for Nb- and Ta-based alloys, establishing CSI thresholds where refractory alloys with CSI < 15,000 K are likely weldable, CSI > 15,000 K are prone to cracking, and CSI > 25,000 K are likely unweldable (or unprintable). Furthermore, interstitial elements C, N, and O significantly increase crack susceptibility, with some existing material specifications coinciding with peak cracking susceptibility concentrations. Finally, machine learning-derived elemental potency factors enable rapid prediction of CSI from alloy chemistry for C103, TZM, Ta-10 W, and T-111 alloys. These results provide practical guidance for feedstock selection, powder reuse limits, and alloy specification amendments for welding and additive manufacturing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanoconfined Interfaces for Highly Selective Separation of Critical Rare Earth Elements

Industrial demand for rare earth elements (REEs) has surged over the past three decades due to their unique properties that support sustainable energy and new technologies. Separating individual REEs is challenging and hazardous, typically done through liquid-liquid extraction. There is an urgent need for environmentally friendly and efficient separation technologies for REEs. Porous materials offer promising advances for sustainable REE separation via ion-selective capture. We hypothesize that REE separation can be efficiently achieved in reactive nanopores, such as Zr(IV) and Cr(III) metal-organic frameworks (MOFs), through surface functionalization. By integrating material synthesis, interfacial chemistry experiments, theory, computation, and machine learning, we gained insights into the chemical factors controlling REE speciation and their competitive adsorption on MOFs. Our findings show that these materials’ selectivity can be tuned by surface functionalization. The machine learning component addressed ion-specific diffusion based on MOF topology and chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling Hydrogen Induced Geochemical Reaction Mechanisms through Coupled Geochemical Modeling and Machine Learning

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) provides a promising large-scale, long-term energy storage solution. A reasonable recovery of stored hydrogen is critical for a successful storage scheme. However, in subsurface reservoirs hydrogen is subject to active geochemical reactions that might result in hydrogen loss. In this study, we implemented a geochemical modeling approach coupled with an unsupervised machine learning technique called non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) to unravel the complex brine-rock-H 2 geochemical processes responsible for hydrogen losses, with particular focus on sulfate reduction reactions. NMF is applied to modeled mineral evolution and fluid component profiles to retrieve profiles that can be interpreted to more easily assess competing processes. NMF decouples simulated competing equilibrium reactions. This facilitates separation of overlapping reaction profiles from redox processes, dissolution fronts, and secondary precipitation while considering the effects of simulation parameters such as salinity, temperature, and total H 2 pressure. NMF successfully discriminates these competing effects in nonlinear ways, allowing robust interpretation. In addition, NMF reveals subtle coupled mineral associations and reaction fronts that are invisible to conventional model analysis. This integrated approach strengthens the conceptual understanding of complex nonlinear hydrogen-brine-rock interactions and advances geochemical research on UHS systems to resolve complexities in modeled geochemical systems without the need for direct experiments or prior knowledge. Furthermore, this study highlights the efficacy of combining geochemical modeling with machine learning techniques to enhance the interpretability of the intricate geochemical simulation output through deciphering the overlapping reaction path that cannot be achieved only using conventional analysis of geochemical models alone.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micro-structural features and material properties impact on adhesive metal joints via computational modeling and machine learning

The quality of structural bonding in practical applications depends on various factors arising from materials, pre-processing conditions, and manufacturing. Understanding how these factors influence bonding performance and determining their relative importance are of significant interest. Thus, this study evaluates the effects of microstructural features and material properties on the structural strength of adhesively-bonded metal joints at the submillimeter scale, utilizing a combination of Finite Element Modeling (FEM) and Machine Learning (ML) with Gradient Boosting Regression (GBR). The microstructural features include adhesive thickness, internal voids within the adhesive, adherend-adhesive interfacial voids, void size and volume fraction, and surface roughness. The material properties include the constitutive behavior of the adhesive, as well as the adherend-adhesive interfacial strength and fracture energy. The changes in structural strength and morphologies of the bonded metal structures with respect to different microstructural features and material properties were clarified by FEM. By further leveraging ML-GBR, the sequence of importance of these factors affecting bonding performance across various scenarios was summarized. This work provides valuable insights into the development of improved structural bonding for adhesive joints in industries such as automotive , aerospace, and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining word embeddings with perfect fidelity: a case study in predicting research impact

The best-performing approaches for scholarly document quality prediction are based on embedding models. In addition to their performance when used in classifiers, embedding models can also provide predictions even for words that were not contained in the labelled training data for the classification model, which is important in the context of the ever-evolving research terminology. Although model-agnostic explanation methods, such as Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations, can be applied to explain machine learning classifiers trained on embedding models, these produce results with questionable correspondence to the model. We introduce a new feature importance method, Self-Model Entities Rated (SMER), for logistic regression-based classification models trained on word embeddings. We show that SMER has theoretically perfect fidelity with the explained model, as the average of logits of SMER scores for individual words (SMER explanation) exactly corresponds to the logit of the prediction of the explained model. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation is performed through five diverse experiments conducted on 50,000 research articles (papers) from the CORD-19 corpus. In conclusion, through an AOPC curve analysis, we experimentally demonstrate that SMER produces better explanations than LIME, SHAP and global tree surrogates.

Coarse-grained models↗
DOE OSTI2026

Using Filter Methods to Guide Convergence for ADMM, with Applications to Nonnegative Matrix Factorization Problems

Nonconvex, nonlinear optimization problems arise naturally in parameter fitting and machine learning. While augmented Lagrangian methods have demonstrated robust convergence for classes of these problems, their convergence for block updates has been relatively unexplored outside of the context of the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). ADMM has seen extensive use in these applications, but may exhibit uncertain convergence behavior in many practical nonconvex settings, and struggles with general nonlinear constraints. In contrast, filter methods have proved effective in enforcing convergence for sequential quadratic programming methods and interior point methods with feasibility criteria. We develop an ADMM-filter method for highly nonlinear and nonconvex problems. Here, we show convergence under mild assumptions for several types of coordinate descent schemes, and demonstrate our algorithm on nonnegative matrix factorization and completion problems in imaging and chemical spectrum analysis.

Nonconvex optimization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Moment extraction using an unfolding protocol without binning

Deconvolving (“unfolding”) detector distortions is a critical step in the comparison of cross-section measurements with theoretical predictions in particle and nuclear physics. However, most existing approaches require histogram binning while many theoretical predictions are at the level of statistical moments. We develop a new approach to directly unfold distribution moments as a function of another observable without having to first discretize the data. Our moment unfolding technique uses machine learning and is inspired by Boltzmann weight factors and generative adversarial networks (GANs). We demonstrate the performance of this approach using jet substructure measurements in collider physics. With this illustrative example, we find that our moment unfolding protocol is more precise than bin-based approaches and is as or more precise than completely unbinned methods.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration

Integrated Operations for Nuclear: Work Reduction Opportunity Demonstration The DI BCA document also identifies specific, digitally enabled WRO categories for further study. These were selected as most relevant by Reference Plant personnel from a larger list of WRO areas identified across the nuclear industry as captured INL/RPT-21-64134, “Process for Significant Nuclear Work Function Innovation Based on Integrated Operations Concepts.” This ION WRO demonstration report was developed to provide illustrative, specific, and actionable direction for intertwined PTPG changes associated with digital modernization efforts. The coordinated changes in these areas are intended to maximize safe plant operational and economic performance. This includes enabling WROs associated with detailed configuration, implementation, and use of digital systems and how they are supported over their lifecycle. Illustrating this direction through a minimum set of advanced technology examples establishes a model PTPG framework that can be leveraged across the spectrum of nuclear plant digital modernization efforts going forward. This document addresses many related concepts. To promote an integrated understanding of the topics that make up this work, this document contains an extensive set of internal hyperlinks. This set includes hyperlinks to page numbers in the table of contents, section numbers, items in lists, figures, tables, and references to other documents within the report. When hovering the cursor above hyperlinked text in Adobe, the cursor will change from “ ” to “ .” When the “ ” appears, a left mouse click will take the reader to the referenced location in the document. To return to the original location in the document, the reader need only press and hold the “alt” button on the keyboard and then simultaneously press the “<” directional key on the keyboard.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-guided design of direct methanol fuel cells with a platinum group metal-free cathode

Direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) offer a promising solution for clean electricity generation, particularly in small electronics and remote auxiliary power units. However, optimizing their efficiency and performance is challenging due to the complex interactions between various factors. Here, we present a novel approach that integrates experiments with machine learning to model and predict the performance of these fuel cells using atomically dispersed platinum group metal (PGM)-free catalysts at the cathode. Further, our machine learning models, trained on diverse input parameters, allow for the comprehensive optimization of DMFC performance prior to fabrication and testing. Through extensive experimental validation, we demonstrate that this data-driven approach accurately predicts key performance metrics, such as maximum power output and polarization curves. By combining our models with interpretable game-theory methods, we provide deep insights into the factors governing fuel cell performance, ultimately paving the way for the design of scalable and efficient DMFC technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Steady Spills, Stronger Signals: Machine Learning for Slow Spill Analysis

Particle accelerator experiments rely on stable, consistent proton beams to maximize scientific discovery. This presentation introduces beam spills, duty factor, and beam stability using a meteor shower analogy before exploring how feedback control and machine learning, including recurrent neural networks (RNNs), can analyze spill data, identify patterns, and predict beam behavior. Together, these approaches support beam optimization and improve our understanding of accelerator performance for experiments such as Mu2e.

Prescott, Matthew J. [Fermilab]↗