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27 records · Page 2

Validation of the High-Resolution Salish Sea Tidal Hydrodynamic Model

In this study, a tidal hydrodynamic model was developed and validated to simulate tidal currents in Puget Sound, Washington, to support tidal energy resource characterization using the unstructured-grid, Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). The Salish Sea tidal hydrodynamic model was driven by tides along two open boundaries at the entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and north end of Georgia Strait, and river flows from 19 major rivers in the Salish Sea. To simulate the tidal current in Puget Sound, a high-resolution model grid is required to accurately represent the complex coastlines and bathymetry. The spatial resolution of the model grid varies from ~10 m near river boundaries and ~30 m in small tidal channels and estuaries to near 1000 m inside Georgia Strait and at the open boundaries. Model validation was carried out by comparing simulated and observed water levels at 12 tidal stations and currents at 135 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler stations in the model domain. A set of model performance metrics, including root mean square error, scatter index, bias, and linear correlation coefficient, were used to quantify the model skills in simulating the tidal hydrodynamics in Puget Sound. Error statistics showed an overall good agreement between simulated and observed tidal elevations and currents, which demonstrated that the Puget Sound tidal model can be used to accurately characterize the tidal stream energy resource in Puget Sound.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Quality Assurance Project Plan for the Salish Sea Model – Continuing Development of New Capabilities and Applications: European Green Crab (EGC) Larval Transport, Coupling to VELMA and Atlantis, Performance Improvements and Diagnostic Applications

This quality assurance project plan (QAPP) is for proposed FY24-FY27 efforts to (a) develop/expand a predictive European Green Crab (EGC) larval dispersal model for the Salish Sea, (b) add linkage between VELMA (Visualizing Ecosystem Land Management Assessments) watershed model and Atlantis model (ecosystem dynamics and food web) through SSM, and (c) continue SSM capability development through the addition of metals, harmful algal blooms (HABs), and FVCOM-LTRANS (Lagrangian Larval Transport) modules.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resource Assessment Study of Long Island Sound Tidal Resource in New York State Waters Based on Numerical Modeling (Abstract)

To refine the understanding of the tidal energy resource in Long Island Sound (LIS), Verdant Power and PNNL will collaborate to conduct a numerical modeling campaign in accordance with a Stage 2 resource assessment according to IEC TC 62600-201. The work will develop a high resolution tidal hydrodynamic model using FVCOM in LIS, validate the model using NOAA C-MIST ADCP data, and conduct a Stage 2 array layout design study at selected hotspots within the project area. The teams will also model tidal energy extraction using the FVCOMTEC module at the hotspot sites, based on specific device technologies provided by Verdant Power. Model results from this study will inform additional resource assessment activities such as in situ water velocity measurements for further model validation and elucidate understanding of other key sites in Long Island Sound for commercial-scale tidal energy deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

A Tidal Hydrodynamic Model for Cook Inlet, Alaska, to Support Tidal Energy Resource Characterization

Cook Inlet in Alaska has been identified as a prime site in the U.S. for potential tidal energy development, because of its enormous tidal power potential that accounts for nearly one-third of the national total. As one important step to facilitate tidal energy development, a tidal hydrodynamic model based on the unstructured-grid, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM) was developed for Cook Inlet to characterize the tidal stream energy resource. The model has a grid resolution that varies from about 1000 m at the open boundary to 100–300 m inside the Inlet. Extensive model validation was achieved by comparing model predictions with field observations for tidal elevation and velocity at various locations in Cook Inlet. The error statistics confirmed the model performs reasonably well in capturing the tidal dynamics in the system, e.g., R2 > 0.98 for tidal elevation and generally > 0.9 for velocity. Model results suggest that tides in Cook Inlet evolve from progressive waves at the entrance to standing waves at the upper Inlet, and that semi-diurnal tidal constituents are amplified more rapidly than diurnal constituents. The model output was used to identify hotspots that have high energy potential and warrant additional velocity and turbulence measurements such as East Foreland, where averaged power density exceeds 5 kw/m2. Lastly, a tidal energy extraction simulation was conducted for a hypothetical turbine farm configuration at the Forelands cross section to evaluate tidal energy extraction and resulting changes in far-field hydrodynamics.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Tidal Stream Energy Resource Characterization in the Salish Sea

Tidal stream energy holds great potential as a renewable energy source in regions of the world where tidal currents are strong and predictable. The tidal stream energy resource of a region is strongly controlled by its tidal wave characteristics, the local bathymetry, and coastal geometric features. The Salish Sea, a large estuary on the Pacific Northwest coast, represents a great tidal stream resource because of its strong tidal currents in many tidal channels. However, the tidal resource in the Salish Sea has not been systematically characterized, primarily because of its large area and complex bathymetry and coastlines. This paper presents a modeling study conducted to characterize the tidal energy resource of the Salish Sea based on a high-resolution three-dimensional tidal hydrodynamic model of the Salish Sea, which was extensively validated using data derived from 10 tidal gauge stations and 132 Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler stations. Model validation results indicated the Salish Sea hydrodynamic model is skillful in simulating tidal wave propagation and velocity distributions in the Salish Sea. Based on model results, a total of 16 tidal channels with strong tidal currents, 9 in the San Juan Islands and Rosario Strait regions and 7 in the Puget Sound, were identified as hotspots for potential tidal energy development. Velocity probability distributions and exceedance curves of cross-channel average velocity magnitudes were calculated at all 16 channels based on the recommendations of the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specifications for tidal energy resource characterization. The tidal energy resource at the 16 hotspots was also characterized using power density distributions and kinetic energy fluxes. The ranking of the kinetic energy fluxes suggested that Admiralty Inlet, Rosario Strait, and Middle Channel are the top three hotspot sites in the Salish Sea for tidal stream energy development. The study demonstrated the need for a high-resolution 3-D modeling framework for accurate simulation of tidal currents in large complex estuarine systems, in the context of tidal energy resource characterization.

tidal stream energy, resource characterization, Sa↗

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of salt intrusion in a tidal estuary to regional climatic forcing

Abstract Salinity distribution in a large tidal estuary is subject to estuarine adjustment under the influences of multiple physical drivers such as freshwater pulses and sea level rise, and is crucial to upstream water quality, aquaculture, and ecosystem functions of the estuary. To better understand the estuarine salinity response to climate change, the unstructured-grid Finite Volume Community Ocean Model was implemented to simulate the salt intrusion in the Delaware Bay Estuary. The model was first validated by multiple observational data sets and subsequently applied in an idealized setting to examine the response of salt front to freshwater pulses in high flow conditions, followed by a long-term drought condition supported by a multi-decadal streamflow drought analysis in the estuary. The model results showed that after the freshwater pulses the salt front location moved further upstream with sea level rise. Under the simulated long-term drought condition, the adjustment timescale of salt intrusion varies nonlinearly with sea level rise. With a significant increase in sea level rise, the adjustment timescale starts to decrease. This shift suggests a transition into a different regime where the estuary becomes more stratified, as indicated by an increasing bulk Simpson number with rising sea levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗