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DOE OSTI2015

Annual Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Isomass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (V. 2015)

The monthly, isotopic (δ 13C) fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates from 1950-2013 provided in this database are derived from time series of global, regional, and national fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Boden et al. 2016), the references therein, and the methodology described in Andres et al. (2011). The data accessible here take these tabular, national, mass-emissions data, multiply them by stable carbon isotopic signatures (δ 13C) as described in Andres et al. (2000), and distribute them spatially on a one degree latitude by one degree longitude grid. The within-country spatial distribution is achieved through a fixed population distribution as reported in Andres et al. (1996). Note that the mass-emissions data used here are based on fossil-fuel consumption estimates as these are more representative of within country emissions than fossil-fuel production estimates (see http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/faq.html#Q10 for a description why emission totals based upon consumption differ from those based upon production).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

Extraction Cost↗

DOE OSTI2013

Monthly Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions: Isomass of Emissions Gridded by One Degree Latitude by One Degree Longitude (1950 - 2010) (V. 2013)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate, air quality, and equity benefits from hydrogen substitution for fossil fuels used in process heat

Fossil fuel combustion for process heat in heavy industry accounts for ~15% of all United States CO 2 emissions and emits PM 2.5 and its precursors, emissions that have a disproportionate impact on minority populations. Decarbonizing process heat in the U.S. via hydrogen substitution presents an opportunity to reduce emissions of CO 2 and PM 2.5 and mitigate resulting exposure disparity. Here, we show that hydrogen substitution in steelmaking provides a large reduction in CO 2 emissions and air quality-related premature mortality, while hydrogen substitution in petroleum refining substantially benefits disadvantaged communities. When reductions in CO 2 emissions and premature mortality are monetized using standard regulatory values, we find that the sum of air pollution and climate benefits outweighs the difference in private cost associated with hydrogen substitution in steelmaking, regardless of the method of hydrogen production. The approach developed here can support evaluations of equity-focused decarbonization strategies in other industries and for specific sites.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2018

Assessing fossil fuel CO 2 emissions in California using atmospheric observations and models

Analysis systems incorporating atmospheric observations could provide a powerful tool for validating fossil fuel CO 2 (ffCO 2 ) emissions reported for individual regions, provided that fossil fuel sources can be separated from other CO 2 sources or sinks and atmospheric transport can be accurately accounted for. We quantified ffCO 2 by measuring radiocarbon ( 14 C) in CO 2 , an accurate fossil-carbon tracer, at nine observation sites in California for three months in 2014-15. There is strong agreement between the measurements and ffCO 2 simulated using a high-resolution atmospheric model and a spatiotemporally-resolved fossil fuel flux estimate. Inverse estimates of total in-state ffCO 2 emissions are consistent with the California Air Resources Board's reported ffCO 2 emissions, providing tentative validation of California's reported ffCO 2 emissions in 2014-15. Continuing this prototype analysis system could provide critical independent evaluation of reported ffCO 2 emissions and emissions reductions in California, and the system could be expanded to other, more data-poor regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Impacts of Wind and Solar on Fossil-Fueled Generators: Preprint

High penetrations of wind and solar power will impact the operations of the remaining generators on the power system. Regional integration studies have shown that wind and solar may cause fossil-fueled generators to cycle on and off and ramp down to part load more frequently and potentially more rapidly. Increased cycling, deeper load following, and rapid ramping may result in wear-and-tearimpacts on fossil-fueled generators that lead to increased capital and maintenance costs, increased equivalent forced outage rates, and degraded performance over time. Heat rates and emissions from fossil-fueled generators may be higher during cycling and ramping than during steady-state operation. Many wind and solar integration studies have not taken these increased cost and emissions impactsinto account because data have not been available. This analysis considers the cost and emissions impacts of cycling and ramping of fossil-fueled generation to refine assessments of wind and solar impacts on the power system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2020

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Titanium-Cerium Electrode-Decoupled Redox Flow Batteries Integrated With Fossil Fuel Assets For Load-Following, Long-Duration Energy Storage

Operation of fossil plants at partial capacity with frequent cycling results in decreased efficiency, increased emissions and increased wear and maintenance. The objective of this project is to advance the integration of a titanium-cerium electrode-decoupled redox flow battery (RFB) system with conventional fossil-fueled power plants through technical and economic system-level studies and component scale-up and R&D. The Ti-Ce chemistry has a pathway to meet the DOE cost targets of $\$$100/kWh and $\$$0.05/kWh-cycle owing to the use of low-cost, earth abundant elemental actives and incorporation of inexpensive carbon felt electrodes and non-fluorinated anion exchange membrane (AEM) separators. The initial unit cell design was scaled up, with some modifications made to improve ease of manufacturing, from 25 cm 2 cell area to 400 cm 2 . Electrochemical tests demonstrated operation at a current density up to 50 mA/cm 2 , which is on par with other commercial RFB offerings. Furthermore, the Ti-Ce technology developed by WashU was evaluated and tested by industrial team partner, Giner, Inc., in their modular 3-cell stack. Several cell design modifications and alternate component material selections were successfully implemented to accommodate this chemistry while reducing polarization and leakage. Results from stack testing show high columbic efficiency and indicate that further optimization of cell compression and components will lead to successful operation of the Ti-Ce ED-RFB over longer duration at the multi-cell stack level. Engineering and cost analysis showed that an RFB system with power output on the order of 100 MW and with a charge/discharge duration of approx. 12 hours is the most cost effective for integration with fossil plants. At this scale, projected cycling of fossil fuel power plants can be significantly reduced. The use of a storage system is shown to reduce the fossil plant standalone cost of electricity by $\$$7/MWh, through increased capacity factor and improved average efficiency, in the scenario of high penetration of renewable power.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions at the building/street scale for a large US city

In order to advance the scientific understanding of carbon exchange with the land surface, build an effective carbon monitoring system and contribute to quantitatively-based U.S. climate change policy interests, fine spatial and temporal quantification of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, the primary greenhouse gas, is essential. Called the ‘Hestia Project’, this research effort is the first to use bottom-up methods to quantify all fossil fuel CO2 emissions down to the scale of individual buildings, road segments, and industrial/electricity production facilities on an hourly basis for an entire urban landscape. a large city (Indianapolis, Indiana USA). Here, we describe the methods used to quantify the on-site fossil fuel CO2 emissions across the city of Indianapolis, Indiana. This effort combines a series of datasets and simulation tools such as a building energy simulation model, traffic data, power production reporting and local air pollution reporting. The system is general enough to be applied to any large U.S. city and holds tremendous potential as a key component of a carbon monitoring system in addition to enabling efficient greenhouse gas mitigation and planning. We compare our estimate of fossil fuel emissions from natural gas to consumption data provided by the local gas utility. At the zip code level, we achieve a bias adjusted pearson r correlation value of 0.92 (p<0.001).

Gurney, Kevin R↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impact of Retiring Synchronous Fossil Fuel Generators on Inter-Area Oscillations in the U.S. Western Interconnection

To facilitate the decarbonization of the power grid, fossil-fuel-based synchronous generators are gradually being retired and replaced by inverter-interfaced renewable energy resources. As synchronous machines get displaced, the characteristics of inter-area oscillation modes in electrical interconnections will change. This paper describes a model-based study of the impact of the retirement of synchronous fossil-fuel generators on the oscillatory characteristics of the US Western Interconnection (WI). Results show that if fossil-fuel-based synchronous machines are replaced by grid-forming inverters, then dominant inter-area modes seen in the WI today will change. New inter-area modes may appear due to the electromechanical energy exchange among remaining hydropower generators clustered in geographical proximity in the northwestern part of the WI. This observation indicates that the evolution in modal properties needs to be closely tracked as the resource mix in electrical interconnections changes.

grid forming inverter, wide area oscillation, Inte↗

DOE OSTI2014

Toward Verifying Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions with the CMAQ Model: Motivation, Model Description and Initial Simulation

Motivated by the urgent need for emission verification of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, we have developed regional CO2 simulation with CMAQ over the contiguous U.S. Model sensitivity experiments have been performed using three different sets of inputs for net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and two fossil fuel emission inventories, to understand the roles of fossil fuel emissions, atmosphere-biosphere exchange and transport in regulating the spatial and diurnal variability of CO2 near the surface, and to characterize the well-known ‘signal-to-noise’ problem, i.e. the interference from the biosphere on the interpretation of atmospheric CO2 observations. It is found that differences in the meteorological conditions for different urban areas strongly contribute to the contrast in concentrations. The uncertainty of NEE, as measured by the difference among the three different NEE inputs, has notable impact on regional distribution of CO2 simulated by CMAQ. Larger NEE uncertainty and impact are found over eastern U.S. urban areas than along the western coast. A comparison with tower CO2 measurements at Boulder Atmospheric Observatory (BAO) shows that the CMAQ model using hourly varied and high-resolution CO2 emission from the Vulcan inventory and CarbonTracker optimized NEE reasonably reproduce the observed diurnal profile, whereas switching to different NEE inputs significantly degrades the model performance. Spatial distribution of CO2 is found to correlate with NOx, SO2 and CO, due to their similarity in emission sources and transport processes. These initial results from CMAQ demonstrate the power of a state-of-the art CTM in helping interpret CO2 observations and verify fossil fuel emissions. The ability to simulate CO2 in CMAQ will also facilitate investigations of the utility of traditionally regulated pollutants and other species as tracers to CO2 source attribution.

CMAQ↗

DOE OSTI2015

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

A multiresolution spatial parametrization for the estimation of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions via atmospheric inversions.

The estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (ffCO2) from limited ground-based and satellite measurements of CO2 concentrations will form a key component of the monitoring of treaties aimed at the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, we construct a multiresolution spatial parametrization for fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (ffCO2), to be used in atmospheric inversions. Such a parametrization does not currently exist. The parametrization uses wavelets to accurately capture the multiscale, nonstationary nature of ffCO2 emissions and employs proxies of human habitation, e.g., images of lights at night and maps of built-up areas to reduce the dimensionality of the multiresolution parametrization. The parametrization is used in a synthetic data inversion to test its suitability for use in atmospheric inverse problem. This linear inverse problem is predicated on observations of ffCO2 concentrations collected at measurement towers. We adapt a convex optimization technique, commonly used in the reconstruction of compressively sensed images, to perform sparse reconstruction of the time-variant ffCO2 emission field. We also borrow concepts from compressive sensing to impose boundary conditions i.e., to limit ffCO2 emissions within an irregularly shaped region (the United States, in our case). We find that the optimization algorithm performs a data-driven sparsification of the spatial parametrization and retains only of those wavelets whose weights could be estimated from the observations. Further, our method for the imposition of boundary conditions leads to a 10 computational saving over conventional means of doing so. We conclude with a discussion of the accuracy of the estimated emissions and the suitability of the spatial parametrization for use in inverse problems with a significant degree of regularization.

Ray, Jaideep↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hestia SW-IFL Onroad Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) product: Road segment-level annual FFCO2 emissions across Arizona (2017-2022), version 1.1

The SW-IFL onroad fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions data product represents CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles (e.g., passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) traveling on designated roadways. The emissions are represented geographically on each road segment within the state of Arizona spanning the 2017 to 2022 time period. This data product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions data are provided in CSV (input data, ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and GeoPackage form (output polyline objects - about 786,000 road segments, XXXX_AZ_v1.1.gpkg) designated by road class (interstates, arterials, collectors, local). The metadata file (Metadata_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) provides details about attributes and data formats. The GeoPackage emissions data are provided separately for local roads and nonlocal roads (interstates, arterials, collectors). The method file (Methods_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) describes the data processing flow and data sources. Update on 2024-04-17: Updates were made to both the input emission data file (.csv) and output segment-level emission file (.gpkg). There was an update in county-level emission input data (ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-04-29: Update was made to one output segment-level emission file (Nonlocal_AZ_v1.0.gpkg). There was an error in the AADT values and the data were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-10-22: Temporal coverage was extended to include 2022. VMT values were recalculated using new AADT data and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect these updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Projected Growth in Small-Scale, Fossil-Fueled Distributed Generation: Potential Implications for the U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory

The generation capacity of small-scale (less than one megawatt) fossil-fueled electricity in the United States is anticipated to grow by threefold to twenty-fold from 2015 to 2040. However, in adherence with internationally agreed upon carbon accounting methods, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) U.S. Greenhouse Inventory (GHGI) does not currently attribute greenhouse gases (GHGs) from these small-scale distributed generation sources to the electric power sector and instead accounts for these emissions in the sector that uses the distributed generation (e.g., the commercial sector). In addition, no other federal electric-sector GHG emission data product produced by the EPA or the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) can attribute these emissions to electricity. We reviewed the technical documentation for eight federal electric-sector GHG emission data products, interviewed the data product owners, collected their GHG emission estimates, and analyzed projections for growth in fossil-fueled distributed generation. We show that, by 2040, these small-scale generators could account for at least about 1%- 5% of total CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric power sector. If these emissions fall outside the electric power sector, the United States may not be able to completely and accurately track changes in electricity-related CO2 emissions, which could impact how the country sets GHG reduction targets and allocates mitigation resources. Because small-scale, fossil-fueled distributed generation is expected to grow in other countries as well, the results of this work also have implications for global carbon accounting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗

NASA NTRS2023

Anthropogenic Aerosols Delay the Emergence of GHGs-Forced Wetting of South Asian Rainy Seasons Under a Fossil-Fuel Intensive Pathway

With continued fossil-fuel dependence, anthropogenic aerosols over South Asia are projected to increase until the mid-21st century along with greenhouse gases (GHGs). Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Large Ensemble, we quantify the influence of aerosols and GHGs on South Asian seasonal precipitation patterns over the 21st century under a very high-emissions (RCP 8.5) trajectory. We find that increasing local aerosol concentrations could continue to suppress precipitation over South Asia in the near-term, delaying the emergence of precipitation increases in response to GHGs by several decades in the monsoon season and a decade in the post-monsoon season. Emergence of this wetting signal is expected in both seasons by the mid-21st century. Our results demonstrate that the trajectory of local aerosols together with GHGs will shape near-future precipitation patterns over South Asia. Therefore, constraining precipitation response to different trajectories of both forcers is critical for informing near-term adaptation efforts.

anthropogenic aerosols↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Biomass burning declines lead to large net reductions in NO2 concentrations over north equatorial Africa in spite of growing fossil fuel emissions

Socio-economic development in low and middle-income countries has been accompanied by increased emissions of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) + nitric oxide (NO)), which affect human health. In sub-Saharan Africa, fossil fuel combustion has nearly doubled since 2000. At the same time, biomass burning—another important NOx source—has declined in Africa’s northern biomass burning region, attributed to changes in climate and anthropogenic fire management associated with agricultural development. Here we use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) and burned area to identify NO2 trends and drivers over Africa. Across the northern ecosystems where biomass burning occurs—home to over 350 million people—mean annual tropospheric NO2 VCDs decreased by 4.5% from 2005 through 2017 during the biomass burning season of November through February. Reductions in burned area explained the majority of these change in NO2 VCDs, but there were also weaker relationships between changes in NO2 VCDs and fossil fuel emissions over parts of West Africa, which were stronger during rainy season. Over Africa’s biomass burning regions, NO2 VCDs tended to decrease with increasing population density up to a threshold of approximately 180 people per km2, suggesting that anthropogenic activity causes a net reduction in NO2 emissions across roughly 90% of the continent’s biomass burning regions. In contrast to the widely-held perception that socio-economic development worsens air quality in low and middle-income nations, our results suggest that countries in Africa’s northern biomass burning region are following a different pathway, resulting in regional air quality benefits. However, these benefits may be lost with increasing fossil fuel use.

Biomass burning↗