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At least 37 records · Page 2

Evaluation of present-day extreme precipitation over the United States: an inter-comparison of convection and dynamic permitting configurations of E3SMv1

Abstract Accurate simulation of the present-day characteristics of mean and extreme precipitation at regional scales remains a challenge for Earth system models, which is due in part to deficiencies in model physics such as convective parameterization (CP), and coarse resolution. High horizontal resolution (HR, ∼25 km) and multiscale modeling framework (MMF, i.e. replacing conventional CP with embedded km-scale cloud-resolving models) are two promising directions that could help improve the interaction between subgrid-scale physical processes and large-scale climate. Here, we evaluate simulated extreme precipitation over the United States (US) across three configurations (i.e. low-resolution [LR], HR, and MMF) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) and intercompare them against two gridded observation datasets (climate prediction center daily US precipitation and integrated multi-satellite retrievals for global precipitation measurement). We assess the model’s ability to simulate very heavy seasonal precipitation (illustrated by the difference between the 99th and 90th percentile values) as well as the spatial distributions of several extreme precipitation indices defined by the expert team on climate change detection and indices. Our results show that both the dry (i.e. consecutive dry days (CDD)) and wet (i.e. consecutive wet days, maximum 5 day precipitation, and very wet days) extremes evaluated herein show some improvement as well as degradation with MMF and HR relative to LR. These results vary across seasons and US subregions. For instance, only the very heavy precipitation of winter is improved with MMF and HR. Both configurations alleviate the well-known drizzling bias evident in LR across both winter and summer in many parts of the US, largely due to the overall improvement in intensity and frequency of precipitation. Additionally, our results suggest that while E3SMv1-MMF has higher intensity rates when it does rain, it has too many CDD during the summer, contributing to a low mean precipitation bias.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

(Un)Explained EMIC Waves: Understanding Quiet Time EMIC Wave Drivers

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves are known to be generated through cyclotron resonance with the local ion particle population and grow when there is a large enough temperature anisotropy. In general, these temperature anisotropies necessary for wave growth are found to be associated with either solar wind pressure pulses or particle injections during geomagnetic storms or substorms. However, some EMIC events do not show any clear association with these known drivers and appear unexplained. In our analysis of high-amplitude (>1 nT) non-storm time EMIC waves, we find that 24 out of the 223 (~11%) EMIC events with peak amplitude greater than 1 nT were not found to be associated with any clear EMIC wave driver. This raises a compelling question: What magnetospheric or solar wind driver provides the free energy to grow these quiet-time EMIC waves? Here, we examine two EMIC events on 13 April 2017 and 13 February 2014, which were excited during extremely quiet solar wind and geomagnetic conditions. Furthermore, an in-depth analysis of field and particle measurements from multiple data sets, including ground and in situ data for these two events, indicates that extremely weak and otherwise insignificant pressure values and/or very weak substorm injections occurring multiple hours before the event play a significant role in quiet time wave generation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Dichotomy of Wet and Dry Trends Over India by Aerosol Indirect Effects in CMIP5 Models

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions, also known as aerosol indirect effect (AIE), substantially impact rainfall frequency and intensity. Here, we analyze NEX‐GDDP, a multimodel ensemble of high‐resolution (0.25°) historical simulations and future projections statistically downscaled from 21 CMIP5 models, to quantify the importance of AIE on extreme climate indices, specifically consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and simple daily intensity index (SDII). The 21 NEX‐GDDP CMIP5 models are classified into models with reliable (REM) and unreliable (UREM) monsoon climate simulated over India based on their simulations of the climate indices. The REM group is further decomposed based on whether the models represent only the direct (REM ADE ) or the direct and indirect (REM ALL ) aerosol effects. Compared to REM ADE , including all aerosol effects significantly improves the model skills in simulating the observed historical trends of all three climate indices over India. Specifically, AIE enhances dry days and reduces wet days in India in the historical period, consistent with the observed changes. However, by the middle and end of the 21st century, there is a relative decrease in dry days and an increase in wet days and precipitation intensity. Moreover, the REM ALL simulated future CWD and CDD changes are mostly opposite to those in REM ADE , indicating the substantial role of AIE in the future projection of dry and wet climates. These findings underscore the crucial role of AIE in future projections of the Indian hydroclimate and motivate efforts to accurately represent AIE in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extremely massive disc galaxies in the nearby Universe form through gas-rich minor mergers

ABSTRACT In our hierarchical structure-formation paradigm, the observed morphological evolution of massive galaxies – from rotationally supported discs to dispersion-dominated spheroids – is largely explained via galaxy merging. However, since mergers are likely to destroy discs, and the most massive galaxies have the richest merger histories, it is surprising that any discs exist at all at the highest stellar masses. Recent theoretical work by our group has used a cosmological, hydrodynamical simulation to suggest that extremely massive (M* > 1011.4 M⊙) discs form primarily via minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites, which create new rotational stellar components and leave discs as remnants. Here, we use UV-optical and H i data of massive galaxies, from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, Galaxy Evolution Explorer, Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey (DECaLS), and Arecibo Legacy Fast ALFA surveys, to test these theoretical predictions. Observed massive discs account for ∼13 per cent of massive galaxies, in good agreement with theory (∼11 per cent). ∼64 per cent of the observed massive discs exhibit tidal features, which are likely to indicate recent minor mergers, in the deep DECaLS images (compared to ∼60 per cent in their simulated counterparts). The incidence of these features is at least four times higher than in low-mass discs, suggesting that, as predicted, minor mergers play a significant (and outsized) role in the formation of these systems. The empirical star formation rates agree well with theoretical predictions and, for a small galaxy sample with H i detections, the H i masses and fractions are consistent with the range predicted by the simulation. The good agreement between theory and observations indicates that extremely massive discs are indeed remnants of recent minor mergers between spheroids and gas-rich satellites.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

US wildfire potential: a historical view and future projection using high-resolution climate data

Abstract Recent wildfires in the western United States have led to substantial economic losses and social stresses. There is a great concern that the new climatic state may further increase the intensity, duration, and frequency of wildfires. To examine temporal and spatial features of historical wildfire trends and future changes, a common fire index, the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), is calculated over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and Alaska. We introduce an efficient initialization method and calculate 36 years (1982–2017) of historical KBDI at 4 km using a high-quality observational dataset. KBDIs are also calculated at 12 km using regional climate models and extended into the mid- and late-21st century. Based on the observational data, annual mean (and 95th percentile) KBDI over forested regions in the southwestern and northwestern CONUS has risen since 1982 at a rate of 5.2 (4.0) and 2.9 (3.3) per year, respectively, indicating a persistent drying trend fostering fire activities; the number of days exceeding the top 5% historical KBDI has increased by 16 and 25 d in the 36 years. Multiple regional climate model simulations project increasing wildfire potential and longer fire seasons over broader areas based on the estimated KBDI for the mid- and late-21st century. By the end of the century, most of the CONUS would experience about 90–189 more days per year exceeding the historical local maximum KBDI; areas with high KBDI (>600), whose occurrence correlates with large burned area, are projected to broaden by nearly 60 times in the southern CONUS. While both temperature and precipitation contribute to future KBDI changes, warming is the main driver of more frequent, intense and wide-spread extreme wildfires indicated by high KBDIs in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal stability and coarsening of eutectic and near-eutectic Ni–Ce alloys

Ni–Ce alloys are currently being studied as a castable alternative to conventional Ni-based superalloys. To understand the evolution of microstructure and mechanical behavior at elevated temperatures, this study investigates the mechanism of coarsening behavior in eutectic and near eutectic Ni–Ce at 900 °C. The as-cast eutectic Ni–Ce consists of a combination of fine lamellar and rod eutectic colonies with coarser boundary regions. Upon annealing, continuous coarsening, via process of globularization, initiates at colony boundaries or primary dendrites where faults (termination and branches) in the lamellar structure are plentiful. Coarsening then proceeds by a combination of fault migration mechanism and lamellar boundary splitting, growing toward the center of the eutectic colonies with increasing annealing time. Coarsening near the center of a colony is extremely slow, indicating the eutectic microstructure itself is very stable. Here, the near-eutectic alloys containing primary dendrites coarsen and stabilize faster compared to the fully eutectic alloy. Moreover, an anomaly is observed in the hardness of the fully eutectic alloy after long exposure at elevated temperature compared to the near-eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering Spectroscopy of Laser Irradiated Carbon

The existence of liquid carbon as an intermediate phase preceding the formation of novel carbon materials has been a point of contention for several decades. Experimental observation of such a liquid state requires nonthermal melting of solid carbon materials at various laser fluences and pulse properties. Reflectivity experiments performed in the mid-1980s reached opposing conclusions regarding the metallic or insulating properties of the purported liquid state. Time-resolved X-ray absorption studies showed shortening of C–C bonds and increasing diffraction densities, thought to evidence a liquid or glassy carbon state, respectively. Nevertheless, none of these experiments provided information on the electronic structure of the proposed liquid state. Herein, we report the results of time-resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) and time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) studies on amorphous carbon (a-C) and ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD) as a function of delay time between the irradiating pulse and X-ray probe. For both a-C and UNCD, we attribute decreases in RIXS or XES signals to transition blocking, relaxation, and finally, ablation. Increased signal at 20 ps following the irradiation of the UNCD is attributed to the probable formation of nanoscale structures in the ablation plume. Further, differences in the amount of signal observed between a-C and UNCD are explained by the difference in sample thickness and, specifically, incomplete melting of the UNCD film. Comparisons to spectral simulations based on MD trajectories at extreme conditions indicate that the carbon state in our experiments is crystalline. Normal mode analysis confirmed that symmetrical bending or stretching of the C–C bonds in the diamond lattice results in XES spectra with small intensity differences. Overall, we observed no evidence of melting to a liquid state, as determined by the lack of changes in the spectral properties for up to 100 ps delays following the melting pulses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Strong ultrafast nonlinear optical response from megaelectronvolt electrons in semiconductors

Understanding radiation–matter interactions on ultrafast timescales is essential for radiation detection technologies, particularly those requiring precise timing, such as plasma monitoring, synchrotron diagnostics and medical imaging. However, the detection of highly ionizing radiation is challenging due to the stochastic nature of the interactions, resulting in dispersed energy deposition. Here we show a nonlinear optical response in semiconductors induced by 150-fs, 4.2-MeV electrons that generate highly localized charge carriers. The induced sub-10-ps optical modulation reached up to 24.5%, accompanied by a blueshift in the absorption edge consistent with band filling and carrier densities of 10 18 cm −3 . These carrier densities are 100-fold higher than expected from the deposited energy, indicating the extreme spatial localization of carriers at inelastic collisions along the ionization trajectories, thereby leading to the observed modulation. The strong nonlinearity of the MeV-electron-induced optical response enables the precise spatiotemporal detection of ionizing radiation at room temperature using common semiconductors and laser systems.

Jeong, D. [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)] (OR↗

Uncovering anisotropic effects of electric high-moment dipoles on the tunneling current in $$\delta$$-layer tunnel junctions

Abstract The precise positioning of dopants in semiconductors using scanning tunneling microscopes has led to the development of planar dopant-based devices, also known as $$\delta$$ δ layer-based devices, facilitating the exploration of new concepts in classical and quantum computing. Recently, it has been shown that two distinct conductivity regimes (low- and high-bias regimes) exist in $$\delta$$ δ -layer tunnel junctions due to the presence of quasi-discrete and continuous states in the conduction band of $$\delta$$ δ -layer systems. Furthermore, discrete charged impurities in the tunnel junction region significantly influence the tunneling rates in $$\delta$$ δ -layer tunnel junctions. Here we demonstrate that electrical dipoles, i.e. zero-charge defects, present in the tunnel junction region can also significantly alter the tunneling rate, depending, however, on the specific conductivity regime, and orientation and moment of the dipole. In the low-bias regime, with high-resistance tunneling mode, dipoles of nearly all orientations and moments can alter the current, indicating the extreme sensitivity of the tunneling current to the slightest imperfection in the tunnel gap. In the high-bias regime, with low-resistivity, only dipoles with high moments and oriented in the directions perpendicular to the electron tunneling direction can significantly affect the current, thus making this conductivity regime significantly less prone to the influence of dipole defects with low-moments or oriented in the direction parallel to the tunneling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Radio fossils, relics, and haloes in Abell 3266: cluster archaeology with ASKAP-EMU and the ATCA

ABSTRACT Abell 3266 is a massive and complex merging galaxy cluster that exhibits significant substructure. We present new, highly sensitive radio continuum observations of Abell 3266 performed with the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (0.8–1.1 GHz) and the Australia Telescope Compact Array (1.1–3.1 GHz). These deep observations provide new insights into recently reported diffuse non-thermal phenomena associated with the intracluster medium, including a ‘wrong-way’ relic, a fossil plasma source, and an as-yet unclassified central diffuse ridge, which we reveal comprises the brightest part of a large-scale radio halo detected here for the first time. The ‘wrong-way’ relic is highly atypical of its kind: it exhibits many classical signatures of a shock-related radio relic, while at the same time exhibiting strong spectral steepening. While radio relics are generally consistent with a quasi-stationary shock scenario, the ‘wrong-way’ relic is not. We study the spectral properties of the fossil plasma source; it exhibits an ultrasteep and highly curved radio spectrum, indicating an extremely aged electron population. The larger scale radio halo fills much of the cluster centre, and presents a strong connection between the thermal and non-thermal components of the intracluster medium, along with evidence of substructure. Whether the central diffuse ridge is simply a brighter component of the halo, or a mini-halo, remains an open question. Finally, we study the morphological and spectral properties of the multiple complex radio galaxies in this cluster in unprecedented detail, tracing their evolutionary history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Implications of the weak gravity conjecture for tidal Love numbers of black holes

The weak gravity conjecture indicates that extremal black holes in the low-energy effective field theory should be able to decay. This criterion gives rise to nontrivial constraints on the coefficients of higher-order derivative corrections to gravity. In this paper, we investigate the tidal deformability of neutral black holes due to higher-order derivative corrections. As a proof of concept, we consider a correction of cubic order in the Riemann curvature tensor. The tidal Love numbers of neutral black holes receive leading-order corrections from higher-order derivative terms, since black holes in pure General Relativity have vanishing tidal Love number. We conclude that the interplay between the tidal deformability of black holes and the weak gravity conjecture provides useful information about the effective field theory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Raw seedling and sapling census data collected from June 2015 - April 2019 within a tropical wet forest in Puerto Rico

This data package contains data used to evaluate the effects of experimental warming (4˚C above ambient), drought, and hurricane disturbance on species richness, diversity, and composition of understory plant communities across ontogeny at the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) in Luquillo, Puerto Rico. The raw data in this package include a file for the species composition matrix of woody seedlings (>10 cm and <20 cm height; TRACE_composition_seedling.csv) and saplings (>20 cm height; TRACE_composition_sapling.csv) within the six TRACE plots, collected during six census dates from June 2015 to April 2019. Also included is also a file with the species names associated with the species codes found in the composition files (TRACE_species_codes.csv), and a data dictionary file describing the columns in the composition files (data_dictionary_composition_files.csv). All data files are in csv format, with the exception of the metadata which is in xml format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assumptions and advantages of diagnosing climate change at global warming levels

Scientists increasingly assess climate changes at specific levels of global warming rather than at specific times in the future. This has numerous advantages over other methods of diagnosing future climate changes and allows for a more direct connection with various climate mitigation targets like the 1.5° or 2°C Paris agreement goals. A key assumption inherent to global warming levels (GWLs) is that all climate models and all future experiments that cross a given global temperature change threshold can be averaged together – that the response of the climate at a given GWL is largely independent of the emissions scenario or the sensitivity to carbon dioxide in the models comprising the average. This assumption has not been systematically vetted in the literature. Here we mine the entire CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives to determine the extent to which the climate response of several extreme climate indices at various GWLs is sensitive to the future emissions scenario and to the models’ climate sensitivities. We quantify this sensitivity to see whether using GWLs as a control in climate projections is justified. This information will be valuable for establishing the extent to which constraints on climate sensitivity can have tangible benefits for regional climate resiliency planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Anomalous Stellar Populations in Low-surface-brightness Galaxies

We present new Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 near-IR observations of the color–magnitude diagrams (CMDs) in two low-surface-brightness galaxies, F575-3 and F615-1, notable for having no current star formation based on a lack of Hα emission. Key features of the near-IR CMDs are resolved, such as the red giant branch (RGB), the asymptotic giant branch (AGB) region, and the top of the blue main sequence. F575-3 has the bluest RGB of any CMD in the literature, indicating an extremely low mean metallicity. F615-1 has unusually wide RGB and AGB sequences, suggesting multiple episodes of star formation from metal-poor gas, and possibly infalling material. Both galaxies have an unusual population of stars to the red of the RGB and lower in luminosity than typical AGB stars. These stars have normal optical colors but abnormal near-IR colors. We suggest that this population of stars might be analogous to local peculiar stars like Be stars with strong near-IR excesses owing to a surrounding disk of hot gas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Evaluation of precipitation across the contiguous United States, Alaska, and Puerto Rico in multi-decadal convection-permitting simulations

Abstract This study is an early effort to generate a multi-decadal convection-permitting regional climate dataset that covers nearly the entire North American continent. We assessed a 20 year dynamically downscaled regional climate simulation at a 4 km spatial resolution with explicit convection across the contiguous United States (CONUS), Alaska, and Puerto Rico. Specifically, we evaluated the model’s performance in representing mean, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation across regions. Our findings indicate that when compared with ERA5 reanalysis, the forcing data, convection-permitting simulation improves representations of seasonal, 95th percentile, and extreme precipitation over a large portion of the CONUS, Alaska, and Puerto Rico, particularly in areas where precipitation is heaviest. The simulation adds value over its forcing data (ERA5) in up to 53% of all grid cells in the CONUS, 68.8% in Alaska, and 84.0% in Puerto Rico. It is important to note that, however, despite improvements, model errors in Puerto Rico remain large. Similar improvements are observed in extreme indices, including consecutive dry days, maximum 5 days precipitation, and extreme precipitation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of mean hourly precipitation suggests that representations of convective processes—including onset, dissipation, suppression, downstream propagation, and local circulation—improved overall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local Tractor Activity at S2 (Mt. Airy) Site

This dataset documents local tractor activity at the S2 (Mt. Airy) site during CoURAGE. It identifies periods where local tractor activity impacted aerosol measurements using both PM10/PM2.5 ratios and ARM camera data for visual confirmation of tractor. Data flags are as follows: 1 = confirmed no local tractor influence on aerosol measurements 2 = one data indicator is present (extreme PM10/PM2.5 ratio OR visual confirmation of tractor sighting), but not both 3 = both data indicators confirm local tractor influence on aerosol 0 = missing data, no determination possible

Tractor Activity using ARM camera photos and PM10/↗

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign

Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.

Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗