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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Galaxy pairs in deep HST images: Evidence for evolution in the galaxy merger rate

We use four deep serendipitous fields observed with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide-Field Camera to constrain the rate of galaxy merging between the current epoch and z approximately equals 0.7. Since most mergers occur between members of bound pairs, the merger rate is given to a good approximation by (half) the rate of disappearance of galaxies in pairs. An objective criterion for pair membership shows that 34% +/- 9% of our HST galaxies with I = 18-22 belong to pairs, compared to 7% locally. This means that about 13% of the galaxy population has disappeared due to merging in the cosmic epoch corresponding to this magnitude interval (or 0.1 approximately less than z approximately less than 0.7). Our pair fraction is a lower limit: correction for pair members falling below our detection threshold might raise the fraction to approximately 50%. Since we address only two-galaxy merging, these values do not include physical systems of higher multiplicity. Incorporating I-band field-galaxy redshift distributions, the pair fraction grows with redshift as alpha(1 + z)(exp 3.5 +/- 0.5) and the merger rate as (1 + z)(exp 2.5 +/- 0.5). This may have significant implications for the interpretation of galaxy counts (disappearance of faint blue galaxies), the cosmological evolution of faint radio sources and quasars (which evolve approximately as (1 + z)(exp 3), the similarity in the power law is necessary but not sufficient evidence for a causal relation), statistics of QSO companions, the galaxy content in distant clusters, and the merging history of a 'typical' galaxy.

Burkey, Jordan M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fuzzy dark matter and the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 data

ABSTRACT Gravitational weak lensing by dark matter haloes leads to a measurable imprint in the shear correlation function of galaxies. Fuzzy dark matter (FDM), composed of ultralight axion-like particles of mass m ∼ 10−22 eV, suppresses the matter power spectrum and shear correlation with respect to standard cold dark matter. We model the effect of FDM on cosmic shear using the optimized halo model HMCode, accounting for additional suppression of the mass function and halo concentration in FDM as observed in N-body simulations. We combine Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES-Y1) data with the Planck cosmic microwave background anisotropies to search for shear correlation suppression caused by FDM. We find no evidence of suppression compared to the preferred cold dark matter model, and thus set a new lower limit to the FDM particle mass. Using a log-flat prior and marginalizing over uncertainties related to the non-linear model of FDM, we find a new, independent 95 per cent C.L. lower limit log10m > −23 combining Planck and DES-Y1 shear, an improvement of almost two orders of magnitude on the mass bound relative to CMB-only constraints. Our analysis is largely independent of baryonic modelling, and of previous limits to FDM covering this mass range. Our analysis highlights the most important aspects of the FDM non-linear model for future investigation. The limit to FDM from weak lensing could be improved by up to three orders of magnitude with $\mathcal {O}(0.1)$ arcmin cosmic shear angular resolution, if FDM and baryonic feedback can be simultaneously modelled to high precision in the halo model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing High-Temperature Amine Chemistry: Is the Reaction NH 3 + NH 2 ⇌ N 2 H 3 + H 2 Important?

The reaction NH 3 + NH 2 ⇌ N 2 H 3 + H 2 (R1) has been identified as a key step to explain experimental results for pyrolysis and oxidation of ammonia. However, no direct experimental or theoretical evidence for the reaction has been reported. In the present work, the reaction was studied by ab initio theory and by reinterpretation of experimental data. We could not locate a transition state for R1 occurring as a direct process, but alternative mechanisms yielded an upper bound to k 1 of 1.5 × 10 13 exp(–58.9 kcal mol –1 /RT) cm 3 mol –1 s –1 over 1000–2500 K, several orders of magnitude lower than values applied in modeling. Consistent with the theoretical work, re-evaluation of NH 3 pyrolysis data supported a very low value of k 1 . However, this finding opens up a novel unresolved issue. Current kinetic models cannot capture the NH 3 oxidation behavior in a number of laminar flow reactor and jet-stirred reactor experiments without adopting an improbably high value for k 1 . Furthermore, important oxidation steps might be underestimated or missing from mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1975

Evidence for magnetic field line reconnection in the solar wind

The basic scheme of Petschek's (1963) models for slow and fast magnetic reconnection in the solar wind is reviewed in order to determine what sort of results one would expect from satellite observations of possible reconnection processes. Data from HEOS 1 and OGO 5 are then analyzed, in which four observations of neutral sheet structures with large change of magnetic field direction were made. All four may be interpreted as indicating magnetic line reconnections rather than as D-sheets because they all show two distinct discontinuities which bound a lower magnetic field intensity region. The geometry of the magnetic field in the reconnection region appears to be similar to that described by Petschek. In one case the reconnection rate is in agreement with Petschek's prediction, but in the other three cases it is much larger than his limit. The reconnection rates observed do, however, agree with Sonnerup's (1972) limit.

Formisano, V.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Mars: A water-rich planet

Good geomorphic evidence is presented for a planet that was once water rich, and that a lower limit on the amount of water available for a given Martian watershed may be estimated by assuming that the volume of material eroded was equal to the volume of water available. This estimate, coupled with high latitude water estimates of 50 to 100 m gives a global inventory of about 500 m total water in the subsurface. It was emphasized that this is a lower limit as considerable water may be bound in weathered debris and in primary minerals.

Carr, Michael H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Alumina+Silica+/-Germanium Alteration in Smectite-Bearing Marathon Valley, Endeavour Crater Rim, Mars

Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has been exploring Mars for 12+ years, and is presently investigating the geology of a western rim segment of 22 kilometers diameter, Noachian- aged Endeavour crater. The Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer has determined the compositions of a pre-impact lithology, the Matijevic fm., and polymict impact breccias ejected from the crater, the Shoemaker fm. Opportunity is now investigating a region named Marathon Valley that cuts southwest-northeast through the central portion of the rim segment and provides a window into the lower stratigraphic record. (Geographic names used here are informal.) At the head of Marathon Valley, referred to here as Upper Marathon Valley, is a shallow, ovoid depression approximately 25×35 millimeters in size, named Spirit of Saint Louis. Layering inside Spirit of Saint Louis appears continuous with the Upper Marathon Valley rocks outside, indicating they are coeval. Spirit of Saint Louis is partly bounded by approximately 10-20 centimeters wide zone containing reddish altered rocks (red zone). Red zones also form prominent curvilinear features in Marathon Valley. Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) spectra provide evidence for a really extensive Fe-Mg smectite in the Marathon Valley region, indicating distinct styles of aqueous alteration. The CRISM detections of smectites are based on metal-OH absorptions at approximately 2.3 and 2.4 micron that are at least two times the background noise level.

Mittlefehldt, D. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for photons above 10 18 eV by simultaneously measuring the atmospheric depth and the muon content of air showers at the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Observatory is the most sensitive instrument to detect photons with energies above 1 0 17 eV . It measures extensive air showers generated by ultrahigh energy cosmic rays using a hybrid technique that exploits the combination of a fluorescence detector with a ground array of particle detectors. The signatures of a photon-induced air shower are a larger atmospheric depth of the shower maximum ( X max ) and a steeper lateral distribution function, along with a lower number of muons with respect to the bulk of hadron-induced cascades. In this work, a new analysis technique in the energy interval between 1 and 30 EeV ( 1 EeV = 1 0 18 eV ) has been developed by combining the fluorescence detector-based measurement of X max with the specific features of the surface detector signal through a parameter related to the air shower muon content, derived from the universality of the air shower development. No evidence of a statistically significant signal due to photon primaries was found using data collected in about 12 years of operation. Thus, upper bounds to the integral photon flux have been set using a detailed calculation of the detector exposure, in combination with a data-driven background estimation. The derived 95% confidence level upper limits are 0.0403, 0.01113, 0.0035, 0.0023, and 0.0021 km − 2 sr − 1 yr − 1 above 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 EeV, respectively, leading to the most stringent upper limits on the photon flux in the EeV range. Compared with past results, the upper limits were improved by about 40% for the lowest energy threshold and by a factor 3 above 3 EeV, where no candidates were found and the expected background is negligible. The presented limits can be used to probe the assumptions on chemical composition of ultrahigh energy cosmic rays and allow for the constraint of the mass and lifetime phase space of super-heavy dark matter particles. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implications of the non-observation of 6 Li in halo stars for the primordial 7 Li problem

The primordial Lithium Problem is intimately connected to the assumption that the 7 Li abundance observed in metal-poor halo stars is unchanged from its primordial value, which lies significantly below the predictions of standard big-bang nucleosynthesis. Two key lines of evidence have argued that these stars have not significantly depleted their initial (mostly primordial) 7 Li: i) the lack of dispersion in Li abundance measurements at low metallicity (and high surface temperature); and ii) the detection of the more fragile 6 Li isotope in at least two halo stars. The purported 6 Li detections were in good agreement with predictions from cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis which is responsible for the origin of 6 Li. This concordance left little room for 6 Li depletion, and the apparent 6 Li survival implied that 7 Li largely evaded destruction, because stellar interiors destroy 6 Li more vigorously then than 7 Li. Recent (re)-observations of halo stars challenge the evidence against 7 Li depletion: i) lithium elemental abundances now show significant dispersion, and ii) sensitive 6 Li searches now reveal only upper limits to the 6 Li/ 7 Li ratio. We discuss the consequences of these 6 Li non-detections on the primordial 7 Li Problem, Galactic cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis, and the question of differential depletion of Li in stars. The tight new 6 Li upper limits generally fall far below the predictions of cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis, implying that substantial 6 Li depletion has occurred — by factors up to 50. We show that in stars with 6 Li limits and thus lower bounds on 6 Li depletion, an equal amount of 7 Li depletion is more than sufficient to resolve the primordial 7 Li Problem. This picture is consistent with well-studied stellar models in which 7 Li is less depleted than 6 Li, and strengthen the case that the Lithium Problem has an astrophysical solution. We conclude by suggesting future observations that could test these ideas.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing a chemical cleaning protocol to determine the nickel isotopic composition of ancient seawater from carbonates

Reconstructing the ancient marine cycle of Ni, a trace metal in the oceans essential to enzymes regulating the C, N, and O cycles, would inform how Ni bioavailability shaped early life. The Ni isotopic composition of seawater (δ 60 Ni SW ) through time could provide insight, but this approach requires sedimentary archives that faithfully record δ 60 Ni SW . Carbonates are an often-used record of seawater chemistry, but contaminants could bias the measured δ 60 Ni of bulk sediment. To isolate the true carbonate-bound δ 60 Ni signal, we optimized a chemical cleaning protocol designed to minimize non‑carbonate Ni contributions and maximize carbonate recovery. We analyzed ODP Site 1007 sediments and evaluated oxidative and reductive pre-cleaning steps and carbonate dissolution protocols. Our results show that only reductive cleaning significantly altered the subsequent carbonate leachate composition, lowering Ni/Ca ratios by up to 60% and δ 60 Ni values by as much as 0.4 ‰. In contrast, δ 60 Ni values were largely insensitive to premature carbonate dissolution during pre-cleaning or to partial leaching of silicates during carbonate dissolution, even at higher acid molarities or longer reaction times. We recommend an evidence-based protocol that removes hydro-soluble salts and clays, applies reductive cleaning and oxidative cleaning for certain sample compositions, and dissolves carbonate using 0.5 M acetic acid, adjusted to pH 5. Using these results, we infer a ∼ 0.9 ‰ Ni isotopic fractionation between chemically cleaned deep-water carbonates (+0.4 ± 0.1 ‰) and deep seawater. This method development is a key step toward accurately reconstructing ancient marine Ni cycles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1994

Transport into the troposphere in a tropopause fold/cut-off low system

A tropopause fold developed on the western flank of a trough in the 300 mb flow on 6 Oct. 1990. Radiosonde ascents over western Europe showed very dry stable layers beneath the jet stream in the potential temperature range 310 to 315 K. These were evident on profiles from 12h on 6 Oct. to 00h on 8 Oct. ECMWF model assimilations were examined for this period to determine how well the model represented the radiosonde observations. Humidity fields were found to give better agreement than potential vorticity, probably because the PV is affected by the limited vertical resolution of the model. Isentropic trajectories were calculated for the air in the fold as represented by the ECMWF assimilation at 00h on 7 Oct. Those on the western edge of the fold split from the main flow and transferred to the troposphere, while those on the eastern side ended up in the cut-off low. A lower bound of 1.1 x 10(exp 14) kg is estimated for the amount of stratospheric air transferred into the troposphere by this fold.

Vaughan, G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neck Rupture and Scission Neutrons in Nuclear Fission

Just before a nucleus undergoes fission, a neck is formed between the emerging fission fragments. It is widely accepted that this neck undergoes a rather violent rupture, despite the absence of unambiguous experimental evidence. The main difficulty in addressing the neck rupture and saddle-to-scission stages of fission is that both are highly nonequilibrium processes. Here, we present the first fully microscopic characterization of the scission mechanism, along with the spectrum and the spatial distribution of scission neutrons (SNs), and some upper limit estimates for the emission of charged particles. The spectrum of SNs has a distinct angular distribution, with neutrons emitted in roughly equal numbers in the equatorial plane and along the fission axis. They carry an average energy around 3±0.5 MeV for the fission of 236 U, 240 Pu, and 252 Cf, and a maximum of 16–18 MeV. We estimate a conservative lower bound of 9%–14% of the total emitted neutrons are produced at scission.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Extreme Thunderstorms as Seen by Satellite

Extreme events by their nature fall outside the bounds of routine experience. With imperfect or ambiguous measuring systems, it is appropriate to question whether an unusual measurement represents an extreme event or is the result of instrument errors or other sources of noise. About three weeks after the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite began collecting data in Dec 1997, a thunderstorm was observed over northern Argentina with 85 GHz brightness temperatures below 50 K and 37 GHz brightness temperatures below 70 K (Zipser et al. 2006). These values are well below what had previously been observed from satellite sensors with lower resolution. The 37 GHz brightness temperatures are also well below those measured by TRMM for any other storm in the subsequent 16 years. Without corroborating evidence, it would be natural to suspect a problem with the instrument, or perhaps an irregularity with the platform during the first weeks of the satellite mission. But the TRMM satellite also carries a radar and a lightning sensor, both confirming the presence of an intense thunderstorm. The radar recorded 40+ dBZ (decibels relative to Z) reflectivity up to about 19 km altitude. More than 200 lightning flashes per minute were recorded. That same storm's 19 GHz brightness temperatures below 150 K would normally be interpreted as the result of a low-emissivity water surface (e.g., a lake, or flood waters) if not for the simultaneous measurements of such intense convection. This paper will examine records from TRMM and related satellite sensors including SSMI and AMSR-E to find the strongest signatures resulting from thunderstorms, and distinguishing those from sources of noise. The lowest brightness temperatures resulting from thunderstorms as seen by TRMM have been in Argentina in November and December. For SSMI sensors carried on five DMSP satellites examined so far, the lowest thunderstorm-related brightness temperatures have been from Argentina in November - December and from Minnesota in June-July. The Minnesota cases were associated with spotter reports of large hail, significant severe wind, and tornadoes. Those locations have the record holders for each satellite. This paper will show examples of cases with the lowest brightness temperatures, and map the locations of these and other storms with brightness temperatures nearly as low. Higher resolution data from the field program MC3E and possibly from IPHEX will be considered for context.

Cecil, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Drilling to Extract Liquid Water on Mars: Feasible and Worth the Investment

A critical application for the success of the Exploration Mission is developing cost effective means to extract resources from the Moon and Mars needed to support human exploration. Water is the most important resource in this regard, providing a critical life support consumable, the starting product of energy rich propellants, energy storage media (e.g. fuel cells), and a reagent used in virtually all manufacturing processes. Water is adsorbed and chemically bound in Mars soils, ice is present near the Martian surface at high latitudes, and water vapor is a minor atmospheric constituent, but extracting meaningful quantities requires large complex mechanical systems, massive feedstock handling, and large energy inputs. Liquid water aquifers are almost certain to be found at a depth of several kilometers on Mars based on our understanding of the average subsurface thermal gradient, and geological evidence from recent Mars missions suggests liquid water may be present much closer to the surface at some locations. The discovery of hundreds of recent water-carved gullies on Mars indicates liquid water can be found at depths of 200-500 meters in many locations. Drilling to obtain liquid water via pumping is therefore feasible and could lower the cost and improve the return of Mars exploration more than any other ISRU technology on the horizon. On the Moon, water ice may be found in quantity in permanently shadowed regions near the poles.

Stoker, C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Airframe Noise Reduction Challenge

The NASA goal of reducing external aircraft noise by 10 dB in the near-term presents the acoustics community with an enormous challenge. This report identifies technologies with the greatest potential to reduce airframe noise. Acoustic and aerodynamic effects will be discussed, along with the likelihood of industry accepting and implementing the different technologies. We investigate the lower bound, defined as noise generated by an aircraft modified with a virtual retrofit capable of eliminating all noise associated with the high lift system and landing gear. However, the airframe noise of an aircraft in this 'clean' configuration would only be about 8 dB quieter on approach than current civil transports. To achieve the NASA goal of 10 dB noise reduction will require that additional noise sources be addressed. Research shows that energy in the turbulent boundary layer of a wing is scattered as it crosses trailing edge. Noise generated by scattering is the dominant noise mechanism on an aircraft flying in the clean configuration. Eliminating scattering would require changes to much of the aircraft, and practical reduction devices have yet to receive serious attention. Evidence suggests that to meet NASA goals in civil aviation noise reduction, we need to employ emerging technologies and improve landing procedures; modified landing patterns and zoning restrictions could help alleviate aircraft noise in communities close to airports.

Lockard, David P.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Mixing and Transition Control Studied

Considerable progress in understanding nonlinear phenomena in both unbounded and wallbounded shear flow transition has been made through the use of a combination of high- Reynolds-number asymptotic and numerical methods. The objective of this continuing work is to fully understand the nonlinear dynamics so that ultimately (1) an effective means of mixing and transition control can be developed and (2) the source terms in the aeroacoustic noise problem can be modeled more accurately. Two important aspects of the work are that (1) the disturbances evolve from strictly linear instability waves on weakly nonparallel mean flows so that the proper upstream conditions are applied in the nonlinear or wave-interaction streamwise region and (2) the asymptotic formulations lead to parabolic problems so that the question of proper out-flow boundary conditions--still a research issue for direct numerical simulations of convectively unstable shear flows--does not arise. Composite expansion techniques are used to obtain solutions that account for both mean-flow-evolution and nonlinear effects. A previously derived theory for the amplitude evolution of a two-dimensional instability wave in an incompressible mixing layer (which is in quantitative agreement with available experimental data for the first nonlinear saturation stage for a plane-jet shear layer, a circular-jet shear layer, and a mixing layer behind a splitter plate) have been extended to include a wave-interaction stage with a three-dimensional subharmonic. The ultimate wave interaction effects can either give rise to explosive growth or an equilibrium solution, both of which are intimately associated with the nonlinear self-interaction of the three dimensional component. The extended theory is being evaluated numerically. In contrast to the mixing-layer situation, earlier comparisons of theoretical predictions based on asymptotic methods and experiments in wall-bounded shear-flow transition have been somewhat lacking in one aspect or another. The current work strongly suggests that the main weakness is the underlying asymptotic representation of the linear "part" of the problem and not the explicit modeling of the nonlinear/wave-interaction effects. Consequently, the long-wave-length/high-Reynolds-number asymptotic limit for the Blasius boundary-layer stability problem was reexamined, and a new dispersion relationship for the instability waves that is uniformly valid for both the upper- and lower branch regions to the required order of approximation was obtained. A comparison with numerical results, obtained by solving the Orr-Sommerfeld stability problem, shows that the asymptotic formula provides surprisingly good results, even for values of the frequency parameter usually encountered in experimental investigations. This is particularly evident in the dynamically important upper-branch region, where much of the nonlinear interactions in transition experiments are believed to take place. The result is important in that it can be used to greatly improve the accuracy of weakly nonlinear critical-layer-based theories, and a consistent nonlinear theory is currently under evaluation.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

A preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity is presented. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. It is shown that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗