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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS1992

The Prebiotic Synthesis of Ethylenediamine Monoacetic Acid, The Repeating Unit of Peptide Nucleic Acids

The polymerization of ribonucleic acids or their precursors constitutes an important event in prebiotic chemistry. The various problems using ribonucleotides to make RNA suggest that there may have been a precursor. An attractive possibility are the peptide nucleic acids (PNA). PNAs are nucleotide analogs that make use of a polymer of ethylenediamine monoacetic acid (EDMA or 2-amninoethyl glycine) with the bases attached by an acetic acid. EDMA is an especially attractive alternative to the ribose phosphate or deoxyribose phosphate backbone because it contains no chiral centers and is potentially prebiotic, but there is no reported prebiotic synthesis. We have synthesized both EDMA and ethylenediamine diacetic acid (EDDA) from the prebiotic compounds ethylenediamine, formaldehyde, and hydrogen cyanide. The yields of EDMA range from 11 to 79% along with some sEDDA and uEDDA. These reactions work with concentrations of 10(exp -1)M and as low as 10(exp -4)M, and the reaction is likely to be effective at even lower concentrations. Ethylenediamine is a likely prebiotic compound, but it has not yet been demonstrated, although compounds such as ethanolamine and cysteamine have been proven to be prebiotic. Under neutral pH and heating at l00 C, EDMA is converted to the lactam, monoketopiperazine (MKP). The cyclization occurs and has an approximate ratio of MKP/EDMA = 3 at equilibrium. We have measured the solubilities of EDMA center dot H20 as 6.4 m, EDMA center dot HCl center dot H20 as 13.7 m, and EDMA center dot 2HCl center dot H20 as 3.4 m. These syntheses together with the high solubility of EDMA suggest that EDMA would concentrate in drying lagoons and might efficiently form polymers. Given the instability of ribose and the poor polymerizability of nucleotides, the prebiotic presence of EDMA and the possibility of its polymerization raises the possibility that PNAs are the progenitors of present day nucleic acids. A pre-RNA world may have existed in which PNAs or polymers with related peptide backbones were the dominant information macromolecules.

Nelson, Kevin E.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Large-scale Coronal Dimming Foreshadowing a Solar Eruption on 2011 October 1

Understanding large-scale solar eruptions requires detailed investigation of the entire system's evolution, including the magnetic environment enveloping the source region and searches for precursor activity prior to event onset. We combine stereoscopic observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and STEREO-B spacecraft for several hours before a filament ejection, M1.2-class eruptive flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME) originating in NOAA active region (AR) 11305 on 2011 October 1. Two episodes of significant preeruption coronal dimming that occurred well to the southeast of the ejected filament are identified. The CME subsequently took off with a substantial component of velocity toward the dimming, which became very pronounced during eruption. We used SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data to reconstruct the magnetic environment of the system and found that it contains a null point near the dimming region. AR 11305 had quite complex connections to nearby ARs 11302 and 11306, as well as to other regions of decayed AR flux. The intensifying and spatially expanding precursor dimming was accompanied by southeastward rising motions of loops toward the null point and northeastward and southwestward motions of loops retracting away. These motions and the dimming are consistent with persistent magnetic reconnection occurring at the null point as it moved upward and southeastward, thereby removing a strapping magnetic field high above AR 11305. Eventually, the filament was ejected explosively toward the null point. We conclude that the breakout model for solar eruptions provides a compelling account of this event. Furthermore, we conjecture that preeruption dimmings may be much more frequent than currently recognized.

solar flares↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗
NASA NTRS1994

The occurrence of blue luminescing enstatite in E3 and E4 chondrites

Two compositional types of enstatite that emit cathodoluminescence (CL) are known to exist in E3 and E4 chondrites. The first type consists of the most common enstatites that are relatively FeO-poor and emit a red CL. Their CL is apparently activated by the presence of MnO and Cr2O3 in concentrations of 0.2 and 0.6 weight percent. The second type of enstatite is nearly FeO-free, contains no MnO or Cr2O3 and emits a blue CL. The origin of these two types of enstatite and their accompanying chemical and CL differences has long been a subject of discussion. Leitch and Smith first observed to two types and felt the compositional differences were too great to have formed under the same conditions. They postulated the two types of enstatite formed on separate parent bodies and were mixed when these bodies collided. McKinley et al. observed a continuous range of compositions between blue luminescing and red luminescing enstatites and concluded the two types of enstatite formed evidence that blue luminescing pyroxenes were relics that did not completely melt during the heating event which melted other precursor grains, and are distinct from the red CL pyroxene in the chondrules in E chondrites. In order to further clarify the nature and origin of the pyroxene that emits blue CL, the sections listed in another work were examined for the occurrence of blue luminescing enstatite.

Dehart, John M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Harabaglia, Paolo↗
NASA NTRS1988

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Properties of chondrules

Chondrules contain a record of many essential characteristics of the primordial solar nebula, whose high-temperature chondrule-generating events have spanned nearly 10 million years. As chondrules cooled, they became magnetized by nebular fields; chondrule rims show that dust was present in the vicinity of chondrule formation, and that multiple melting events were possible. The chondrule precursors included many large grains, showed variable degrees of Fe-oxidation, and encompassed many isotopic reservoirs. The properties of these nebular materials systematically changed from the enstatite, to ordinary, and finally to carbonaceous chondrite formation regions.

Grossman, Jeffrey N.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Madden-Julian Oscillation in Tropospheric Ozone

This is the first study to indicate a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric ozone is derived using differential measurements of total column ozone and stratospheric column ozone measured from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and microwave limb sounder (MLS) instruments. Two broad regions of significant MJO signal are identified in the tropics, one in the western Pacific and the other in the eastern Pacific. Over both regions, MJO variations in tropospheric ozone represent 5-10 Dobson Unit (DU) peak-to-peak anomalies. These variations are significant compared to mean background amounts of 20 DU or less over most of the tropical Pacific. MJO signals of this magnitude would need to be considered when investigating and interpreting particular pollution events since ozone is a precursor of the hydroxyl (OH) radical, the main oxidizing agent of pollutants in the lower atmosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Madden-Julian Oscillation in Tropospheric Ozone

This is the first study to indicate a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in tropospheric ozone. Tropospheric ozone is derived using differential measurements of total column ozone and stratospheric column ozone measured from total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and microwave limb sounder (MLS) instruments. Two broad regions of significant MJO signal are identified in the tropics, one in the western Pacific and the other in the eastern Pacific. Over both regions, MJO variations in tropospheric ozone represent 5- 10 DU peak-to-peak anomalies. These variations are significant compared to mean background amounts of 20 DU or less over most of the tropical Pacific. The implications of these results are: (1) model values of TCO in the tropical Pacific region, when accounted for the MJO may be highly variable depending upon the phase of the MJO, and (2) MJO signals of this magnitude would need to be considered when investigating and interpreting particular pollution events since ozone is a precursor of the hydroxyl (OH) radical, the main oxidizing agent of pollutants in the lower atmosphere.

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Connecting Crop Productivity, Residue Fires, and Air Quality over Northern India

Northwestern India is known as the “breadbasket” of the country producing two-thirds of food grains, with wheat and rice as the principal crops grown under the crop rotation system. Agricultural data from India indicates a 25% increase in the post-monsoon rice crop production in Punjab during 2002–2016. NASA’s A-train satellite sensors detect a consistent increase in the vegetation index (net 21%) and post-harvest agricultural fire activity (net ~60%) leading to nearly 43% increase in aerosol loading over the populous Indo-Gangetic Plain in northern India. The ground-level particulate matter (PM2.5) downwind over New Delhi shows a concurrent uptrend of net 60%. The effectiveness of a robust satellite-based relationship between vegetation index—a proxy for crop amounts, and post-harvest fires—a precursor of extreme air pollution events, has been further demonstrated in predicting the seasonal agricultural burning. An efficient crop residue management system is critically needed towards eliminating open field burning to mitigate episodic hazardous air quality over northern India.

Hiren Jethva↗
NASA NTRS1993

Teleseismic detection of a slow precursor to the great 1989 Macquarie Ridge earthquake

Low-frequency spectra for the 1989 Macquarie Ridge earthquake (magnitude 8.2) show an amplitude increase and a phase-delay decrease below 6 millihertz that require a short-term slow precursor. This earthquake can be modeled as a compound event in which a fast-rupturing, ordinary earthquake was initiated by an episode of slow, smooth deformation that began more than 100 seconds before the main shock. The moment released in the slow precursor was large, about 3 x 10 exp 20 newton-meters, equivalent to an event of magnitude 7.6. The data are consistent with the precursor being generated in a region of the oceanic upper mantle below the main rupture.

Ihmle, Pierre F.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Crystallization of Ca-Al-Rich Inclusions: Experimental Studies on the Effects of Repeated Heating Events

The observed textures and chemistry of Ca-Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) are presumed to be the culmination of a series of repeated heating and cooling events in the early history of the solar nebula. We have examined the effects of these heating/cooling cycles experimentally on a bulk composition representing an average Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusion composition. We have tested the effect of the nature of the starting material. Although the most recent and/or highest temperature event prior to incorporation into the parent body dominates the texture and chemistry of the CAI, prior events also affect the phase compositions and textures. We have determined that heating precursor grains to about 1275 C prior to the final melting event increases the likelihood of anorthite crystallization in subsequent higher temperature events and a prior high temperature even that produced dendritic melilite results in melilite that shows evidence of rapid crystallization in subsequent lower temperature events. Prior low temperature pre-crystallization events produce final ran products with pyroxene compositions similar to Type B Ca-Al-rich inclusions, and the glass (residual liquid) composition is more anorthitic than any other experiments to date. The addition of Pt powder to the starting material appears to enhance the ability of anorthite to nucleate from this composition.

Paque, Julie M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Applications of Anomaly Detection and Precursor Identification in Airspace Operations

As we continue to advance the U.S. National Airspace into the next generation of air traffic, we face challenges in both increase in complexity, as well as, a significant growth in traffic volume. Addressing these challenges, while maintaining the same level of safety is an important application of data mining. Because of these significant shifts in airspace design and usage there is a need to identify current and emergent safety risks along with their potential precursors. In recent years NASA has made advancements in developing scalable methods to address this effort in the Big Data paradigm. Multiple kernel anomaly detection approaches have been employed on both surveillance radar data and flight operational quality assurance data to identify operationally significant safety risks. Additionally, events have been explored with a recently developed precursor identification tool to discover states that reveal an increased probability of a safety event. These tools can be used to discover emerging safety risks that may not be currently monitored, which allows for mitigation tactics to be employed and ultimately make the overall airspace safer. This talk will discuss an overview of these methods and a discussion of the findings.

anomaly detection↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Edison infrared space observatory and the study of extra-solar planetary material

Edison is a proposed large-aperture, radiatively-cooled space observatory planned to operate at wavelengths between 2 and 130 micrometers or longer. Current estimates for the telescope allow an aperture of 1.7 m which will achieve a final equilibrium temperature of about 30 K, although use of cryocoolers may permit temperatures below 20 K. Edison will be a powerful tool to investigate our Solar System, as well as planetary material around distant stars. At near- and mid-infrared wavelengths, where planetary material emits most of its radiation, Edison will be the most sensitive photometric and spectroscopic observatory under current consideration by the space agencies. With its large aperture, Edison will be able both to resolve the structure in nearby circumstellar 'Vega disks' and to discriminate faint IR emission in the crowded environment of the galactic plane. With its long lifetime, Edison will allow extensive follow-up observations and increase the likelihood of catching transient events. We propose Edison as a precursor to elements of a future space-based IR interferometer.

Thronson, H. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Observation of a cosmic gamma-ray burst on Apollo 16. I - Temporal variability and energy spectrum

A cosmic gamma-ray event occurring April 27, 1972 at 10.68 UT was observed by gamma-ray and X-ray spectrometers on Apollo 16 as well as by Vela 6A. Analysis has yielded a detailed time profile of the entire event, an energy spectrum covering three order of magnitude (2.0 to 7.9 KeV and 0.067 to 5.1 MeV) and a source location. A well-defined onset prior to the main impulse period and a probable precursor are reported. The total energy of the event over the observed range was 2 x 10 to the minus 4th power ergs/sq cm. The data indicate the presence of a hard component which persists during the entire event, with a softer variable component becoming dominant during the most explosive burst portion.

Metzger, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Diagnostic classification of flash drought events reveals distinct classes of forcings and impacts

Recent years have seen growing appreciation that rapidly intensifying flash droughts are significant climate hazards with major economic and ecological impacts. This has motivated efforts to inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. Here we consider the question of whether the term “flash drought” comprises multiple distinct classes of event, which would imply that understanding and forecasting flash droughts might require more than one framework. To do this, we first extend and evaluate a soil moisture volatility–based flash drought definition that we introduced in previous work and use it to inventory the onset dates and severity of flash droughts across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1979–2018. Using this inventory, we examine meteorological and land surface conditions associated with flash drought onset and recovery. These same meteorological and land surface conditions are then used to classify the flash droughts based on precursor conditions that may represent predictable drivers of the event. We find that distinct classes of flash drought can be diagnosed in the event inventory. Specifically, we describe three classes of flash drought: “dry and demanding” events for which antecedent evaporative demand is high and soil moisture is low, “evaporative” events with more modest antecedent evaporative demand and soil moisture anomalies, but positive antecedent evaporative anomalies, and “stealth” flash droughts, which are different from the other two classes in that precursor meteorological anomalies are modest relative to the other classes. The three classes exhibit somewhat different geographic and seasonal distributions. We conclude that soil moisture flash droughts are indeed a composite of distinct types of rapidly intensifying droughts, and that flash drought analyses and forecasts would benefit from approaches that recognize the existence of multiple phenomenological pathways.

Mahmoud Osman↗
NASA NTRS2011

NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate accident precursors by evaluating anomaly occurrences for their system safety implications and, through both analytical and deliberative methods used to project to other circumstances, identifying those that portend more serious consequences to come if effective corrective action is not taken. APA builds upon existing safety analysis processes currently in practice within NASA, leveraging their results to provide an improved understanding of overall system risk. As such, APA represents an important dimension of safety evaluation; as operational experience is acquired, precursor information is generated such that it can be fed back into system safety analyses to risk-inform safety improvements. Importantly, APA utilizes anomaly data to predict risk whereas standard reliability and PRA approaches utilize failure data which often is limited and rare.

Groen, Frank↗