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At least 37 records · Page 2

Progenitor, precursor, and evolution of the dusty remnant of the stellar merger M31-LRN-2015

ABSTRACT M31-LRN-2015 is a likely stellar merger discovered in the Andromeda Galaxy in 2015. We present new optical to mid-infrared photometry and optical spectroscopy for this event. Archival data show that the source started to brighten ∼2 yr before the nova event. During this precursor phase, the source brightened by ∼3 mag. The light curve at 6 and 1.5 months before the main outburst may show periodicity, with periods of 16 ± 0.3 and 28.1 ± 1.4 d, respectively. This complex emission may be explained by runaway mass-loss from the system after the binary undergoes Roche lobe overflow, leading the system to coalesce in tens of orbital periods. While the progenitor spectral energy distribution shows no evidence of pre-existing warm dust in the system, the remnant forms an optically thick dust shell at approximately four months after the outburst peak. The optical depth of the shell increases dramatically after 1.5 yr, suggesting the existence of shocks that enhance the dust formation process. We propose that the merger remnant is likely an inflated giant obscured by a cooling shell of gas with mass ∼0.2 M⊙ ejected at the onset of the common envelope phase.

(ISM:) dust, extinction↗

Constraints placed on the chondrule-forming process by merrihueite in the Mezoe-Madaras chondrite

A few unusual chondrules in the Mezoe-Madaras L3 chondrite contain the peralkaline mineral merrihueite, (K, Na)2(Fe, Mg)5Si12O30, formed by reaction of free silica in the chondrules with K, Na, Fe-rich nebular gas. Vapor fractionation was required to create chondrules poor in Al and rich in Si, and the fractionated condensate produced had to aggregate into protochondrules very promptly (on the order of hours or less) to prevent it from mixing with dust of more generalized composition in the nebula. The traditional paradigm for chondrule formation, involving a series of unrelated events (chemical fractionation of precursor dust; clumping of the dust; melting of the dust-clumps), is inadequate for making these chondrules. A rapid process, all stages of which are related, is required. We propose that this occurred during the cooling and contraction of the volume of hot gas created by a small transient high-energy event in the nebula, of unspecified nature. Microdroplets of silicate melt created by condensation from the cooling, contracting gas had velocity vectors directed toward the center of the volume. Coalescence occurred in the crowded central zone where the microdroplets converged. The Mezoe-Madaras merriihueite-bearing chondrules may have been formed by an atypically low-energy nebular event, which achieved the needed chemical fractionations by only partially vaporizing precursor dust. More commonplace chondrule types may have been created by the same basic process, but involving higher-energy events in which precursor dust was completely vaporized and recondensed.

Wood, John A.↗

Role of atmospheric resonance and land–atmosphere feedbacks as a precursor to the June 2021 Pacific Northwest Heat Dome event

We demonstrate an indirect, rather than direct, role of quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves in a summer weather extreme. We find that there was an interplay between a persistent, amplified large-scale atmospheric circulation state and soil moisture feedbacks as a precursor for the June 2021 Pacific Northwest “Heat Dome” event. An extended resonant planetary wave configuration prior to the event created an antecedent soil moisture deficit that amplified lower atmospheric warming through strong nonlinear soil moisture feedbacks, favoring this unprecedented heat event.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental investigation of reaction coronas on olivine in Apollo 14 high-grade breccias

Reaction coronas of pyroxene plus or minus ilmenite occur around clasts of olivine in Apollo 14 high-grade metamorphic breccias. In experiments of several months duration, there was no evidence of corona formation at 1000 C, but at 1050, with oxygen fugacity at or above Ilm-Ru-Fe and below Fe-Fe(1-x)O, incipient coronas formed around Fo(50-70), Fo(68), En(69) + Fe. Reduction of olivine under these conditions is inconsistent with the calculated stability relations and is attributed to uncertainties in the activity coefficient for olivine or pyroxene. The experiments also suggest that vesicularity in the Apollo 14 high-grade breccias may correlate with the amount of glassy material in their unmetamorphosed precursors. The metamorphic event is attributed to burial in a hot ejecta blanket, such as that of the Imbrium event.

Kesson, S. E.↗

Investigation of MAGSAT and TRIAD magnetometer data to provide corrective information on high-lattitude external fields

Disturbances in the MAGSAT magnetometer data set due to high latitude phenomena were evaluated. Much of the categorization of disturbances due to Birkeland currents, ionospheric Hall currents, fine structure and wave phenomena was done with the MAGSAT data catalog. A color graphics technique was developed for the display of disturbances from multiple orbits, from which one can infer a 'global-image' of the current systems of the auroral zone. The MAGSAT 4/81 magnetic field model appears to represent the Earth's main field at high latitudes very well for the epoch 1980. MAGSAT's low altitude allows analysis of disturbances in the magnetometer data due to ionospheric electrojet currents. These current distributions were modeled properly for single events as a precursor to the inference of the Birkeland current system. MAGSAT's orbit was approximately shared with that of the Navy/APL TRIAD satellite. This allowed space-time studies of the magnetic disturbance signatures to be performed, the result being an approximately 75% agreement in, as well as high frequency of, signatures due to Birkeland currents. Thus the field-aligned currents are a steady-state participant in the Earth's magnetospheric current system.

Potemra, T. A.↗

Plasma motions in an emerging flux region

Ultraviolet spectra of C IV show large nonthermal broadening in an area of emerging flux. These nonthermal motions are observed at a very early stage of reconnecting field lines. The spectra can be traced to small, rapidly changing surge or filament-like features which are seen in the center, blue, and red wing of H-alpha. They seem to have the characteristics of macrospicules or explosive events. They are precursors of the reconnection process. Plasma turbulence and/or plasma waves in the reconnecting plasma may cause the broad C IV line profiles. The activity in the transition zone precedes the formation of a bright chromospheric loop system.

Brueckner, G. E.↗

Westerly Wind Events in the Eastern Indian Ocean as a Precursor to El Nino: A Case Study for the 2002-03 El Nino

This paper extends the work of our previous study, which showed the potential of using precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean to predict when an El Nino would begin. The paper begins by showing the successful prediction of the 2002-03 El Nino. However, precipitation is really used as a substitute for wind (storms are usually accompanied by heavy wind), because a popular hypothesis is that winds (especially % winds out of the West) stir up the ocean surface in the western Pacific sending currents of warm waters to the east Pacific where El Ninos form. This paper shows that it is typical for storms that produce strong winds in the western Pacific to have traveled from the Indian Ocean. We begin in the Indian Ocean looking at strong bursts of wind over several days. The number of windy days seems to increase in the months prior to El Nino. We examined these relationships in detail for November 2001 to April 2002, before the recent El Nino, using NASA's TRMM and QuikSCAT data. We found in one case that a warming of the eastern Indian Ocean occurred about 25 days before heavy rainfall formed. As the stormed moved eastward it was followed (6 days later) by strong winds out of the West. The entire storm system (and warming of the sea) moved eastward through a small strip of water between Indonesia and Australia, before reaching the western Pacific. Thus, this paper increases our understanding of the physical processes leading to the formation of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗

The Prebiotic Synthesis of Ethylenediamine Monoacetic Acid, The Repeating Unit of Peptide Nucleic Acids

The polymerization of ribonucleic acids or their precursors constitutes an important event in prebiotic chemistry. The various problems using ribonucleotides to make RNA suggest that there may have been a precursor. An attractive possibility are the peptide nucleic acids (PNA). PNAs are nucleotide analogs that make use of a polymer of ethylenediamine monoacetic acid (EDMA or 2-amninoethyl glycine) with the bases attached by an acetic acid. EDMA is an especially attractive alternative to the ribose phosphate or deoxyribose phosphate backbone because it contains no chiral centers and is potentially prebiotic, but there is no reported prebiotic synthesis. We have synthesized both EDMA and ethylenediamine diacetic acid (EDDA) from the prebiotic compounds ethylenediamine, formaldehyde, and hydrogen cyanide. The yields of EDMA range from 11 to 79% along with some sEDDA and uEDDA. These reactions work with concentrations of 10(exp -1)M and as low as 10(exp -4)M, and the reaction is likely to be effective at even lower concentrations. Ethylenediamine is a likely prebiotic compound, but it has not yet been demonstrated, although compounds such as ethanolamine and cysteamine have been proven to be prebiotic. Under neutral pH and heating at l00 C, EDMA is converted to the lactam, monoketopiperazine (MKP). The cyclization occurs and has an approximate ratio of MKP/EDMA = 3 at equilibrium. We have measured the solubilities of EDMA center dot H20 as 6.4 m, EDMA center dot HCl center dot H20 as 13.7 m, and EDMA center dot 2HCl center dot H20 as 3.4 m. These syntheses together with the high solubility of EDMA suggest that EDMA would concentrate in drying lagoons and might efficiently form polymers. Given the instability of ribose and the poor polymerizability of nucleotides, the prebiotic presence of EDMA and the possibility of its polymerization raises the possibility that PNAs are the progenitors of present day nucleic acids. A pre-RNA world may have existed in which PNAs or polymers with related peptide backbones were the dominant information macromolecules.

Nelson, Kevin E.↗

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A prediction model of failure threshold for shear deformation in a Zr-based bulk metallic glass

The failure of bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) during plastic deformation at room temperature is abrupt and instantaneous, while the analysis of precursor information based on avalanche events helps predict catastrophic failure. An acoustic emission (AE) signal can provide accurate precursor information for material failure, due to its sensitive and high fast calculation ability. In the current study, AE monitoring tests are carried out during uniaxial compression tests of BMGs at different strain rates. The AE experimental failure threshold, E max , is proposed on the basis of AE cumulative energy, which reflects the intensity of damage evolution at different loading conditions. Compared with the critical shear band velocity (CSBV) associated with stick-slip dynamics of serrated flow, E max is a more sensitive failure parameter since it is connected with the local microscopic changes that occur during the material response process. Here, the E max is obtained prior to reaching the CSBV since the calculation of these two avalanches analysis focuses on the different stages of shear band growth. In particular, AE events are related to the “dry” friction process in the first stage, however, the CSBV is responsible for the “viscous” glide in the second stage. Therefore, Emax is not affected by the complex interactions between the shear bands during the stick-slip process. The maximum avalanche of serrated flow, S max , is proposed as the experimental failure threshold, which depends on the applied strain rate as S max ~ $\dot{ε}$ –λ . According to the relationship of E max and S max , the theoretical failure threshold, E max , follows a criterion E max = 2545$\dot{ε}$ –λ - 4468, where λ is equivalent to 0.15 for this work. Finally, combining the different calculations and AE measurements, this model gives new insights to predict the deformation failure behavior of Zr-based BMGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large-scale Coronal Dimming Foreshadowing a Solar Eruption on 2011 October 1

Understanding large-scale solar eruptions requires detailed investigation of the entire system's evolution, including the magnetic environment enveloping the source region and searches for precursor activity prior to event onset. We combine stereoscopic observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) and STEREO-B spacecraft for several hours before a filament ejection, M1.2-class eruptive flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME) originating in NOAA active region (AR) 11305 on 2011 October 1. Two episodes of significant preeruption coronal dimming that occurred well to the southeast of the ejected filament are identified. The CME subsequently took off with a substantial component of velocity toward the dimming, which became very pronounced during eruption. We used SDO/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data to reconstruct the magnetic environment of the system and found that it contains a null point near the dimming region. AR 11305 had quite complex connections to nearby ARs 11302 and 11306, as well as to other regions of decayed AR flux. The intensifying and spatially expanding precursor dimming was accompanied by southeastward rising motions of loops toward the null point and northeastward and southwestward motions of loops retracting away. These motions and the dimming are consistent with persistent magnetic reconnection occurring at the null point as it moved upward and southeastward, thereby removing a strapping magnetic field high above AR 11305. Eventually, the filament was ejected explosively toward the null point. We conclude that the breakout model for solar eruptions provides a compelling account of this event. Furthermore, we conjecture that preeruption dimmings may be much more frequent than currently recognized.

solar flares↗

An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

Groen, Frank↗

Advancing the Limits of InSAR to Detect Crustal Displacement from Low-Magnitude Earthquakes through Deep Learning

Detecting surface deformation associated with low-magnitude (M w ≤ 5) seismicity using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is challenging due to the subtlety of the signal and the often challenging imaging environments. However, low-magnitude earthquakes are potential precursors to larger seismic events, and thus characterizing the crustal displacement associated with them is crucial for regional seismic hazard assessment. We combine InSAR time-series techniques with a Deep Learning (DL) autoencoder denoiser to detect the magnitude and extent of crustal deformation from the M w = 3.4 Gallina, New Mexico earthquake that occurred on 30 July 2020. Although InSAR alone cannot detect event-related deformation from such a low-magnitude seismic event, application of the DL method reveals maximum displacements as small as (±2.5 mm) in the vicinity of both the fault and earthquake epicenter without prior knowledge of the fault system. This finding improves small-scale displacement discernment with InSAR by an order of magnitude relative to previous studies. We additionally estimate best-fitting fault parameters associated with the observed deformation. The application of the DL technique unlocks the potential for low-magnitude earthquake studies, providing new insights into local fault geometries and potential risks from higher-magnitude earthquakes. This technique also permits low-magnitude event monitoring in areas where seismic networks are sparse, allowing for the possibility of global fault deformation monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The occurrence of blue luminescing enstatite in E3 and E4 chondrites

Two compositional types of enstatite that emit cathodoluminescence (CL) are known to exist in E3 and E4 chondrites. The first type consists of the most common enstatites that are relatively FeO-poor and emit a red CL. Their CL is apparently activated by the presence of MnO and Cr2O3 in concentrations of 0.2 and 0.6 weight percent. The second type of enstatite is nearly FeO-free, contains no MnO or Cr2O3 and emits a blue CL. The origin of these two types of enstatite and their accompanying chemical and CL differences has long been a subject of discussion. Leitch and Smith first observed to two types and felt the compositional differences were too great to have formed under the same conditions. They postulated the two types of enstatite formed on separate parent bodies and were mixed when these bodies collided. McKinley et al. observed a continuous range of compositions between blue luminescing and red luminescing enstatites and concluded the two types of enstatite formed evidence that blue luminescing pyroxenes were relics that did not completely melt during the heating event which melted other precursor grains, and are distinct from the red CL pyroxene in the chondrules in E chondrites. In order to further clarify the nature and origin of the pyroxene that emits blue CL, the sections listed in another work were examined for the occurrence of blue luminescing enstatite.

Dehart, John M.↗

EFCOG Human Performance Improvement Task Group: Task 20-2, Asking Better Error Precursor Questions for Effective Job Planning, Pre-Job Briefs, and Event Investigations

The second principle of human performance states: “error-likely situations are predictable, manageable, and preventable.” An error-likely situation comes into play when task-related factors exceed the capabilities of the individual, creating a mismatch at the point when the individual is “touching” either the physical or the paper plant. The simple presence of adverse conditions cannot be error-likely unless a specific action is to occur within that set of adverse conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Harabaglia, Paolo↗

Plume spectrometry for liquid rocket engine health monitoring

An investigation of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) testing failures identified optical events which appeared to be precursors of those failures. A program was therefore undertaken to detect plume trace phenomena characteristic of the engine and to design a monitoring system, responsive to excessive activity in the plume, capable of delivering a warning of an anomalous condition. By sensing the amount of extraneous material entrained in the plume and considering engine history, it may be possible to identify wearing of failing components in time for a safe shutdown and thus prevent a catastrophic event. To investigate the possibilities of safe shutdown and thus prevent a monitor to initiate the shutdown procedure, a large amount of plume data were taken from SSME firings using laboratory instrumentation. Those data were used to design a more specialized instrument dedicated to rocket plume diagnostics. The spectral wavelength range of the baseline data was about 220 nanometers (nm) to 15 micrometer with special attention given to visible and near UV. The data indicates that a satisfactory design will include a polychromator covering the range of 250 nM to 1000 nM, along with a continuous coverage spectrometer, each having a resolution of at least 5A degrees. The concurrent requirements for high resolution and broad coverage are normally at odds with one another in commercial instruments, therefore necessitating the development of special instrumentation. The design of a polychromator is reviewed herein, with a detailed discussion of the continuous coverage spectrometer delayed to a later forum. The program also requires the development of applications software providing detection, variable background discrimination, noise reduction, filtering, and decision making based on varying historical data.

Powers, William T.↗

Properties of chondrules

Chondrules contain a record of many essential characteristics of the primordial solar nebula, whose high-temperature chondrule-generating events have spanned nearly 10 million years. As chondrules cooled, they became magnetized by nebular fields; chondrule rims show that dust was present in the vicinity of chondrule formation, and that multiple melting events were possible. The chondrule precursors included many large grains, showed variable degrees of Fe-oxidation, and encompassed many isotopic reservoirs. The properties of these nebular materials systematically changed from the enstatite, to ordinary, and finally to carbonaceous chondrite formation regions.

Grossman, Jeffrey N.↗