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A correlated ab initio study of linear carbon-chain radicals CnH (n = 2-7)

Linear carbon-chain radicals CnH for n = 2-7 have been studied with correlation consistent valence and core-valence basis sets and the coupled cluster method RCCSD(T). Equilibrium structures, rotational constants, and dipole moments are reported and compared with available experimental data. The ground state of the even-n series changes from 2 sigma+ to 2 pi as the chain is extended. For C4H, the 2 sigma+ state was found to lie only 72 cm-1 below the 2 pi state in the estimated complete basis set limit for valence correlation. The C2H- and C3H- anions have also been characterized.

NASA Discipline Exobiology

TESS Eclipsing Binary Stars. I. Short-cadence Observations of 4584 Eclipsing Binaries in Sectors 1–26

In this paper we present a catalog of 4584 eclipsing binaries observed during the first two years (26 sectors) of the TESS survey. We discuss selection criteria for eclipsing binary candidates, detection of hitherto unknown eclipsing systems, determination of the ephemerides, the validation and triage process, and the derivation of heuristic estimates for the ephemerides. Instead of keeping to the widely used discrete classes, we propose a binary star morphology classification based on a dimensionality reduction algorithm. Finally, we present statistical properties of the sample, we qualitatively estimate completeness, and we discuss the results. The work presented here is organized and performed within the TESS Eclipsing Binary Working Group, an open group of professional and citizen scientists; we conclude by describing ongoing work and future goals for the group. The catalog is available from http://tessEBs.villanova.edu and from MAST.

Andrej Prša

Completely monotone regression estimates of software failure rates

A method for estimating the present failure rate of a program is presented. A crude nonparameter estimate of the failure rate function is obtained from past failure times. This estimate is then smoothed by fitting a completely monotonic function, which is the solution of a quadratic programming problem. The value of the smoothed function at present time is used as the estimate of present failure rate. Results of a Monte Carlo study of performance are given.

Miller, D. R.

Global precipitation estimates based on a technique for combining satellite-based estimates, rain gauge analysis, and NWP model precipitation information

The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.

Huffman, George J.

Cost Estimate for Molybdenum and Tantalum Refractory Metal Alloy Flow Circuit Concepts

The Early Flight Fission-Test Facilities (EFF-TF) team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been tasked by the Naval Reactors Prime Contract Team (NRPCT) to provide a cost and delivery rough order of magnitude estimate for a refractory metal-based lithium (Li) flow circuit. The design is based on the stainless steel Li flow circuit that is currently being assembled for an NRPCT task underway at the EFF-TF. While geometrically the flow circuit is not representative of a final flight prototype, knowledge has been gained to quantify (time and cost) the materials, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly, and operations to produce a testable configuration. This Technical Memorandum (TM) also identifies the following key issues that need to be addressed by the fabrication process: Alloy selection and forming, cost and availability, welding, bending, machining, assembly, and instrumentation. Several candidate materials were identified by NRPCT including molybdenum (Mo) alloy (Mo-47.5 %Re), tantalum (Ta) alloys (T-111, ASTAR-811C), and niobium (Nb) alloy (Nb-1 %Zr). This TM is focused only on the Mo and Ta alloys, since they are of higher concern to the ongoing effort. The initial estimate to complete a Mo-47%Re system ready for testing is =$9,000k over a period of 30 mo. The initial estimate to complete a T-111 or ASTAR-811C system ready for testing is =$12,000k over a period of 36 mo.

Hickman, Robert R.

Heat of Combustion of the Product Formed by the Reaction of Acetylene and Diborane (LFPL-CZ-3)

The heat of combustion of the product formed by the reaction acetylene and diborane was found to be 20,100 +/- 100 Btu per pound for the reaction of liquid fuel to gaseous carbon dioxide, gaseous water, and solid boric oxide. The measurements were made in a Parr oxygen-bomb calorimeter, and chemical analyses both of the sample and of the combustion products indicated combustion in the bomb calorimeter to have been 97 percent complete. The estimated net heat of combustion for complete combustion would therefore be 20,700 +/- 100 Btu per pound.

Allen, Harrison, Jr.

Heat of Combustion of the Product Formed by the Reaction of Diborane with 1,3-Butadiene

The net heat of combustion of the product formed by the reaction of diborane with 1,3-butadiene was found to be 18,700+/-150 Btu per pound for the reaction of liquid fuel to gaseous carbon dioxide, gaseous water, and solid boric oxide. The measurements were made in a Parr oxygen-bomb calorimeter, and the combustion was believed to be 98 percent complete. The estimated net heat of combustion for complete combustion would therefore be 19,075+/-150 Btu per pound. Since this value is approximately the same as the heat of combustion of butadiene, it seems certain that the material is partially oxidized.

Tannenbaum, Stanley

Heat of Combustion of the Product Formed by the Reaction of Acetylene, Ethylene, and Diborane

The net heat of combustion of the product formed by the reaction of diborane with a mixture of acetylene and ethylene was found to be 20,440 +/- 150 Btu per pound for the reaction of liquid fuel to gaseous carbon dioxide, gaseous water, and solid boric oxide. The measurements were made in a Parr oxygen-bomb calorimeter, and the combustion was believed to be 98 percent complete. The estimated net-heat of combustion for complete combustion would therefore be 20,850 +/- 150 Btu per pound.

Tannenbaum, Stanley

Estimating Attitude, Trajectory, and Gyro Biases in an Extended Kalman Filter using Earth Magnetic Field Data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer

Traditionally satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate systems, using different measurement data. The estimation of both trajectory and attitude for low earth orbit satellites has been successfully demonstrated in ground software using magnetometer and gyroscope data. Since the earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computed and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. This work further tests the single augmented Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) which simultaneously and autonomously estimates spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) magnetometer and gyro-measured body rates. In addition, gyro biases are added to the state and the filter's ability to estimate them is presented.

Deutschmann, Julie

Attitude and Trajectory Estimation Using Earth Magnetic Field Data

The magnetometer has long been a reliable, inexpensive sensor used in spacecraft momentum management and attitude estimation. Recent studies show an increased accuracy potential for magnetometer-only attitude estimation systems. Since the Earth's magnetic field is a function of time and position, and since time is known quite precisely, the differences between the computer and measured magnetic field components, as measured by the magnetometers throughout the entire spacecraft orbit, are a function of both the spacecraft trajectory and attitude errors. Therefore, these errors can be used to estimate both trajectory and attitude. Traditionally, satellite attitude and trajectory have been estimated with completely separate system, using different measurement data. Recently, trajectory estimation for low earth orbit satellites was successfully demonstrated in ground software using only magnetometer data. This work proposes a single augmented extended Kalman Filter to simultaneously and autonomously estimate both spacecraft trajectory and attitude with data from a magnetometer and either dynamically determined rates or gyro-measured body rates.

Deutschmann, Julie

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Jezek, Kenneth C.

Technology Estimating 2: A Process to Determine the Cost and Schedule of Space Technology Research and Development

As a leader in space technology research and development, NASA is continuing in the development of the Technology Estimating process, initiated in 2012, for estimating the cost and schedule of low maturity technology research and development, where the Technology Readiness Level is less than TRL 6. NASA' s Technology Roadmap areas consist of 14 technology areas. The focus of this continuing Technology Estimating effort included four Technology Areas (TA): TA3 Space Power and Energy Storage, TA4 Robotics, TA8 Instruments, and TA12 Materials, to confine the research to the most abundant data pool. This research report continues the development of technology estimating efforts completed during 2013-2014, and addresses the refinement of parameters selected and recommended for use in the estimating process, where the parameters developed are applicable to Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) used in the parametric cost estimating analysis. This research addresses the architecture for administration of the Technology Cost and Scheduling Estimating tool, the parameters suggested for computer software adjunct to any technology area, and the identification of gaps in the Technology Estimating process.

Cole, Stuart K.

Completeness Index for Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories

Understanding the global relation between Earthquake-Induced Landslides (EQILs) and the factors contributing to their initiation is still an open topic within the geomorphological community. Accessing EQIL inventories and analyzing them concerning their potential causes is the key to explore such relation. However, each of the existing EQIL inventories has its level of completeness and associated uncertainty which makes any unified relationship which is challenging to obtain. So far, the completeness of EQIL inventories has never been clearly defined. As a result, it has never been accounted for in global EQIL predictive models. In this technical note, we propose a simple definition for the completeness of EQIL inventories. We analyze 30 digital EQIL for 21 earthquakes and develop a semi-quantitative method to estimate the completeness level, which we refer to as Completeness Index (CI). The CI results from a combination of topographic factors, ground shaking parameters, and a measure derived from landslide size statistics. The proposed CI consists of Low, Moderate, and High completeness classes which can be used to evaluate any landslide inventory. We made the whole procedure to compute the CI accessible in an ArcGIS toolbox together with a test dataset.

Hakan Tanyas

Analysis of TRMM 3-Hourly Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimates Computed in Both Real and Post-Real Time

Satellite data form the core of the information available for estimating precipitation on a global basis. While it is possible to create such estimates solely from one sensor, researchers have increasingly moved to using combinations of sensors in an attempt to improve accuracy, coverage, and resolution. This poster updates a long-term project in which the authors are working to provide routine combined-sensor estimates of precipitation over the entire globe at relatively fine time and space intervals. The goal is to produce these globally complete precipitation estimates on a 25-km grid every 3 hours. Since late January 2002 we have been estimating precipitation for the latitude band 50 degrees N-S within about 6 hours of observation time. This work is 1 of only 2 or 3 such efforts in the world. Now we are preparing to provide similar estimates for the last 5 years. All of this work is being carried out as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Initially, TRMM was focused on providing excellent long-term averages of precipitation in tropical regions, but since its launch in November 1997 continued research has allowed the same satellite and data system to be used for addressing weather-scale problems as well.

Huffman, George J.

NASA 2014 The Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) - Science Impact of Deploying Instruments on Separate Platforms

The Hyperspectral Infrared Imager (HyspIRI) mission was recommended for implementation by the 2007 report from the U.S. National Research Council Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, also known as the Earth Science Decadal Survey. The HyspIRI mission is science driven and will address a set of science questions identified by the Decadal Survey and broader science community. The mission includes a visible shortwave infrared (VSWIR) imaging spectrometer, a multispectral thermal infrared (TIR) imager and an intelligent payload module (IPM). The IPM enables on-board processing and direct broadcast for those applications with short latency requirements. The science questions are organized as VSWIR-only, TIR-only and Combined science questions, the latter requiring data from both instruments. In order to prepare for the mission NASA is undertaking pre-phase A studies to determine the optimum mission implementation, in particular, cost and risk reduction activities. Each year the HyspIRI project is provided with feedback from NASA Headquarters on the pre-phase A activities in the form of a guidance letter which outlines the work that should be undertaken the subsequent year. The 2013 guidance letter included a recommendation to undertake a study to determine the science impact of deploying the instruments from separate spacecraft in sun synchronous orbits with various time separations and deploying both instruments on the International Space Station (ISS). This report summarizes the results from that study. The approach taken was to evaluate the impact on the combined science questions of time separations between the VSWIR and TIR data of <3 minutes, <1 week and a few months as well as deploying both instruments on the ISS. Note the impact was only evaluated for the combined science questions which require data from both instruments (VSWIR and TIR). The study concluded the impact of a separation of <3 minutes was minimal, e.g. if the instruments were on separate platforms that followed each other in a train. The impact of a separation of <1 week was strongly dependent on the question that was being addressed with no impact for some questions and a severe impact for others. The impact of a time separation of several months was severe and in many cases it was no longer possible to answer the sub-question. The impact of deploying the instruments on the ISS which is in a precessive (non-sun synchronous) orbit was also very question dependent, in some cases it was possible to go beyond the original question, e.g. to examine the impact of the diurnal cycle, whereas in other cases the question could not be addressed for example if the question required observations from the polar regions. As part of the study, the participants were asked to estimate, as a percentage, how completely a given sub-question could be answered with 100% indicating the question could be completely answered. These estimations should be treated with caution but nonetheless can be useful in assessing the impact. Averaging the estimates for each of the combined questions the results indicate that 97% of the questions could be answered with a separation of < 3 minutes. With a separation of < 1 week, 67% of the questions could be answered and with a separation of several months only 21% of the questions could be answered.

Turpie, Kevin

Nonparametric statistical modeling of binary star separations

We develop a comprehensive statistical model for the distribution of observed separations in binary star systems, in terms of distributions of orbital elements, projection effects, and distances to systems. We use this model to derive several diagnostics for estimating the completeness of imaging searches for stellar companions, and the underlying stellar multiplicities. In application to recent imaging searches for low-luminosity companions to nearby M dwarf stars, and for companions to young stars in nearby star-forming regions, our analyses reveal substantial uncertainty in estimates of stellar multiplicity. For binary stars with late-type dwarf companions, semimajor axes appear to be distributed approximately as a(exp -1) for values ranging from about one to several thousand astronomical units. About one-quarter of the companions to field F and G dwarf stars have semimajor axes less than 1 AU, and about 15% lie beyond 1000 AU. The geometric efficiency (fraction of companions imaged onto the detector) of imaging searches is nearly independent of distances to program stars and orbital eccentricities, and varies only slowly with detector spatial limitations.

Heacox, William D.

3D Drop Size Distribution Extrapolation Algorithm Using a Single Disdrometer

Determining the Z-R relationship (where Z is the radar reflectivity factor and R is rainfall rate) from disdrometer data has been and is a common goal of cloud physicists and radar meteorology researchers. The usefulness of this quantity has traditionally been limited since radar represents a volume measurement, while a disdrometer corresponds to a point measurement. To solve that problem, a 3D-DSD (drop-size distribution) method of determining an equivalent 3D Z-R was developed at the University of Central Florida and tested at the Kennedy Space Center, FL. Unfortunately, that method required a minimum of three disdrometers clustered together within a microscale network (.1-km separation). Since most commercial disdrometers used by the radar meteorology/cloud physics community are high-cost instruments, three disdrometers located within a microscale area is generally not a practical strategy due to the limitations of these kinds of research budgets. A relatively simple modification to the 3D-DSD algorithm provides an estimate of the 3D-DSD and therefore, a 3D Z-R measurement using a single disdrometer. The basis of the horizontal extrapolation is mass conservation of a drop size increment, employing the mass conservation equation. For vertical extrapolation, convolution of a drop size increment using raindrop terminal velocity is used. Together, these two independent extrapolation techniques provide a complete 3DDSD estimate in a volume around and above a single disdrometer. The estimation error is lowest along a vertical plane intersecting the disdrometer position in the direction of wind advection. This work demonstrates that multiple sensors are not required for successful implementation of the 3D interpolation/extrapolation algorithm. This is a great benefit since it is seldom that multiple sensors in the required spatial arrangement are available for this type of analysis. The original software (developed at the University of Central Florida, 1998.- 2000) has also been modified to read standardized disdrometer data format (Joss-Waldvogel format). Other modifications to the software involve accounting for vertical ambient wind motion, as well as evaporation of the raindrop during its flight time.

Lane, John

Global Precipitation at One-Degree Daily Resolution From Multi-Satellite Observations

The One-Degree Daily (1DD) technique is described for producing globally complete daily estimates of precipitation on a 1 deg x 1 deg lat/long grid from currently available observational data. Where possible (40 deg N-40 deg S), the Threshold-Matched Precipitation Index (TMPI) provides precipitation estimates in which the 3-hourly infrared brightness temperatures (IR T(sub b)) are thresholded and all "cold" pixels are given a single precipitation rate. This approach is an adaptation of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Precipitation Index (GPI), but for the TMPI the IR Tb threshold and conditional rain rate are set locally by month from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-based precipitation frequency and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite-gauge (SG) combined monthly precipitation estimate, respectively. At higher latitudes the 1DD features a rescaled daily Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) precipitation. The frequency of rain days in the TOVS is scaled down to match that in the TMPI at the data boundaries, and the resulting non-zero TOVS values are scaled locally to sum to the SG (which is a globally complete monthly product). The time series of the daily 1DD global images shows good continuity in time and across the data boundaries. Various examples are shown to illustrate uses. Validation for individual grid -box values shows a very high root-mean-square error but, it improves quickly when users perform time/space averaging according to their own requirements.

Huffman, George J.