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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Calibrating Microscopic Car-Following Models for Adaptive Cruise Control Vehicles: Multiobjective Approach

Adaptive cruise control (ACC) vehicles are the first step toward comprehensive vehicle automation. However, the impacts of such vehicles on the underlying traffic flow are not yet clear. Therefore, it is of interest to accurately model vehicle-level dynamics of commercially available ACC vehicles so that they may be used in further modeling efforts to quantify the impact of commercially available ACC vehicles on traffic flow. Importantly, not only model selection but also the calibration approach and error metric used for calibration are critical to accurately model ACC vehicle behavior. In this work, we explore the question of how to calibrate car following models to describe ACC vehicle dynamics. Specifically, we apply a multi-objective calibration approach to understand the tradeoff between calibrating model parameters to minimize speed error vs. spacing error. Three different car-following models are calibrated for data from six vehicles. The results are in line with recent literature and verify that targeting a low spacing error does not compromise the speed accuracy whether the opposite is not true for modeling ACC vehicle dynamics.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Worldwide benchmarking of cost-effective radiometers for direct and diffuse irradiance

Solar energy projects can benefit from direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) measurements during all project phases. Several commercial measurement systems for DNI and DHI are available. Sun trackers with pyranometers and pyrheliometers can provide highly accurate measurements but are often impractical in solar energy applications. For less expensive and more robust sensors, it is often unclear which accuracy can be expected under a project site's specific atmospheric conditions. We address this challenge through our dedicated experimental comparison of relevant sensor systems (rotating shadowband irradiometer [short RSI], Delta-T SPN1, EKO MS-90, PyranoCam, Sunto CaptPro, Kipp & Zonen CSD3) at up to six sites worldwide. The RSI systems (rRMSD 3 to 8.6%, DNI; 4.8 to 7.6%, DHI) and PyranoCam (rRMSD 2.6 to 5.2%, DNI; 4.4 to 5.8%, DHI) exhibit similar error metrics and are the most accurate systems in the test. Delta-T SPN1 and EKO MS-90 (rRMSD 6.8 to 15%, DNI; 10.6 to 20.1%, DHI) but especially Kipp & Zonen CSD3 and Sunto CaptPro show significant deviations (rRMSD 17.7 to 20%, DNI; 33 to 58%, DHI). We evaluate the influence of relevant atmospheric parameters on the sensors' accuracies by a rather unique measurement setup. MS-90's DNI errors depend on DNI itself, with overestimations for low reference DNI. The deviations of SPN1's DHI and DNI measurements increase sharply in situations with high circumsolar irradiance. Also CaptPro and CSD3's increased measurement errors are related to circumsolar irradiance. For RSI and PyranoCam, only moderate influences on the measurements are identified, indicating a general applicability of these instruments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Biases in Simulated Cloud Radiative Effects in E3SMv3

This study systematically investigates biases in cloud radiative effects (CREs) within the recently released Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 3 (E3SMv3). Compared to its previous version (E3SMv2), E3SMv3 shows excessively strong shortwave CRE over tropical and subtropical oceans, the Southern Ocean, and the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks, which is primarily caused by an overestimation of optically intermediate low clouds. The model also displays excessive longwave CRE over the Maritime Continent and other tropical deep convection regions, resulting from an overestimation of optically thick high clouds. Implementing the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) scheme for stratiform clouds played the most significant role in these cloud changes. In addition, using a double-moment scheme for convective clouds contributed to the increase in intermediate low clouds and optically thick clouds in tropical deep convection regions. Error metrics for total cloud amount (E TCA ), cloud properties (E ctp-τ ), and cloud properties weighted by their SW and LW radiative impacts (E SW and E LW ) indicate that E3SMv3's ability to reproduce observed cloud radiative effect of low, middle, and high clouds has not been improved compared to E3SMv2. Nevertheless, the performance of E3SMv3 remains well within the spread of CMIP6 models, with E SW and E LW values smaller than those in most CMIP6 models. This study underscores the importance of integrating diverse satellite observations for robust cloud evaluation and using cloud-radiation relationships as consistency check for model errors. It suggests that further model developments focus on improving cloud microphysics and their interactions with radiation.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Active learning for SNAP interatomic potentials via Bayesian predictive uncertainty

Bayesian inference with a simple Gaussian error model is used to efficiently compute prediction variances for energies, forces, and stresses in the linear SNAP interatomic potential. Here, the prediction variance is shown to have a strong correlation with the absolute error over approximately 24 orders of magnitude. Using this prediction variance, an active learning algorithm is constructed to iteratively train a potential by selecting the structures with the most uncertain properties from a pool of candidate structures. The relative importance of the energy, force, and stress errors in the objective function is shown to have a strong impact upon the trajectory of their respective net error metrics when running the active learning algorithm. Batched training of different batch sizes is also tested against singular structure updates, and it is found that batches can be used to significantly reduce the number of retraining steps required with only minor impact on the active learning trajectory.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the effectiveness of neural operators at zero-shot weather downscaling

Machine-learning (ML) methods have shown great potential for weather downscaling. These data-driven approaches provide a more efficient alternative for producing high-resolution weather datasets and forecasts compared to physics-based numerical simulations. Neural operators, which learn solution operators for a family of partial differential equations, have shown great success in scientific ML applications involving physics-driven datasets. Neural operators are grid-resolution-invariant and are often evaluated on higher grid resolutions than they are trained on, i.e., zero-shot super-resolution. Given their promising zero-shot super-resolution performance on dynamical systems emulation, we present a critical investigation of their zero-shot weather downscaling capabilities, which is when models are tasked with producing high-resolution outputs using higher upsampling factors than are seen during training. To this end, we create two realistic downscaling experiments with challenging upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) across data from different simulations: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) and the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. While neural operator-based downscaling models perform better than interpolation and a simple convolutional baseline, we show the surprising performance of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with parameter-free interpolation at zero-shot weather downscaling. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms models with neural operator layers in terms of average error metrics, whereas an Enhanced Super-Resolution Generative Adversarial Network-based approach is better than most models in terms of capturing the physics of the ground truth data. We suggest their use in future work as strong baselines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning surrogates for ion energy–angle distributions in thermal and RF plasma sheaths

Ion energy–angle distributions (IEADs) at material surfaces are a critical input for plasma–material interaction (PMI) studies in fusion devices, yet they are computationally expensive to obtain using particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. In this work, we develop a machine learning surrogate based on a deep deconvolutional neural network (DDeCNN) trained on large databases generated with the hPIC2 code. The surrogate is capable of reconstructing IEADs from sheath parameters for both thermal and radio-frequency (RF) plasmas, including cases with multiple ion species. Across thousands of test cases, the model achieves high accuracy, with over 97 % of predictions classified as good or average based on standard error metrics (MAE, MSE, L2). Even in the more challenging RF and multi-species regimes, the surrogate reliably captures the multi-peak structure of PIC results. Once trained, the surrogate produces IEADs in milliseconds on a common workstation, yielding speedups of six to seven orders of magnitude compared with running a full PIC simulation. This computational gain enables dense parameter scans and direct coupling of IEAD predictions with PMI and erosion models on whole-device scales in fusion-relevant conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measuring the capabilities of quantum computers

Quantum computers can now run interesting programs, but each processor’s capability—the set of programs that it can run successfully—is limited by hardware errors. These errors can be complicated, making it difficult to accurately predict a processor’s capability. Benchmarks can be used to measure capability directly, but current benchmarks have limited flexibility and scale poorly to many-qubit processors. We show how to construct scalable, efficiently verifiable benchmarks based on any program by using a technique that we call circuit mirroring. With it, we construct two flexible, scalable volumetric benchmarks based on randomized and periodically ordered programs. We use these benchmarks to map out the capabilities of twelve publicly available processors, and to measure the impact of program structure on each one. We find that standard error metrics are poor predictors of whether a program will run successfully on today’s hardware, and that current processors vary widely in their sensitivity to program structure.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adiabatic quantum linear regression

Abstract A major challenge in machine learning is the computational expense of training these models. Model training can be viewed as a form of optimization used to fit a machine learning model to a set of data, which can take up significant amount of time on classical computers. Adiabatic quantum computers have been shown to excel at solving optimization problems, and therefore, we believe, present a promising alternative to improve machine learning training times. In this paper, we present an adiabatic quantum computing approach for training a linear regression model. In order to do this, we formulate the regression problem as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem. We analyze our quantum approach theoretically, test it on the D-Wave adiabatic quantum computer and compare its performance to a classical approach that uses the Scikit-learn library in Python. Our analysis shows that the quantum approach attains up to $${2.8 \times }$$ 2.8 × speedup over the classical approach on larger datasets, and performs at par with the classical approach on the regression error metric. The quantum approach used the D-Wave 2000Q adiabatic quantum computer, whereas the classical approach used a desktop workstation with an 8-core Intel i9 processor. As such, the results obtained in this work must be interpreted within the context of the specific hardware and software implementations of these machines.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real space iterative reconstruction for vector tomography (RESIRE-V)

Tomography has had an important impact on the physical, biological, and medical sciences. To date, most tomographic applications have been focused on 3D scalar reconstructions. However, in some crucial applications, vector tomography is required to reconstruct 3D vector fields such as the electric and magnetic fields. Over the years, several vector tomography methods have been developed. Here, we present the mathematical foundation and algorithmic implementation of REal Space Iterative REconstruction for Vector tomography, termed RESIRE-V. RESIRE-V uses multiple tilt series of projections and iterates between the projections and a 3D reconstruction. Each iteration consists of a forward step using the Radon transform and a backward step using its transpose, then updates the object via gradient descent. Incorporating with a 3D support constraint, the algorithm iteratively minimizes an error metric, defined as the difference between the measured and calculated projections. The algorithm can also be used to refine the tilt angles and further improve the 3D reconstruction. To validate RESIRE-V, we first apply it to a simulated data set of the 3D magnetization vector field, consisting of two orthogonal tilt series, each with a missing wedge. Our quantitative analysis shows that the three components of the reconstructed magnetization vector field agree well with the ground-truth counterparts. We then use RESIRE-V to reconstruct the 3D magnetization vector field of a ferromagnetic meta-lattice consisting of three tilt series. Our 3D vector reconstruction reveals the existence of topological magnetic defects with positive and negative charges. We expect that RESIRE-V can be incorporated into different imaging modalities as a general vector tomography method. To make the algorithm accessible to a broad user community, we have made our RESIRE-V MATLAB source codes and the data freely available at https://github.com/minhpham0309/RESIRE-V.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-driven Mori–Zwanzig modeling of Lagrangian particle dynamics in turbulent flows

The dynamics of Lagrangian particles in turbulence play a crucial role in mixing, transport, and dispersion in complex flows. Their trajectories exhibit highly nontrivial statistical behavior, motivating the development of surrogate models that can reproduce these trajectories without incurring the high computational cost of direct numerical simulations of the full Eulerian field. This task is particularly challenging because reduced-order models typically lack access to the full set of interactions with the underlying turbulent field. Novel data-driven machine learning techniques can be powerful in capturing and reproducing complex statistics of the reduced-order/surrogate dynamics. In this work, we show how one can learn a surrogate dynamical system that is able to evolve a turbulent Lagrangian trajectory in a way that is point-wise accurate for short-time predictions (with respect to Kolmogorov time) and stable and statistically accurate at long times. This approach is based on the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, which prescribes a mathematical decomposition of the full dynamical system into resolved dynamics that depend on the current state and the past history of a reduced set of observables, and the unresolved orthogonal dynamics due to unresolved degrees of freedom of the initial state. We show how by training this reduced order model on a point-wise error metric on short time-prediction, we are able to correctly learn the dynamics of Lagrangian turbulence, such that also the long-time statistical behavior is stably recovered at test time. This opens up a range of applications, for example, for the control of active Lagrangian agents in turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Patterson function as auto-hologram and graph enables the direct solution to the phase problem for coherently illuminated atomistic structures

Abstract The coherent Patterson function, derived from the coherent scattering intensities from N atoms, can be described as an auto-holographic image, i.e., the superposition of N -holographic images in which each atom serves as the source of a different reference wave, and as a mathematical graph of the unknown structure. These insights indicate that the unknown structure is significantly over-determined by the inherent information content in a Patterson function by a factor of ( N − 1)/2 (for non-degenerate structures), independent of dimensionality. However, we also show that the ability to resolve the distinct features in the Patterson function depends strongly on details of the experimental design (data range, sampling frequency, and dimensionality). This re-interpretation suggests that the coherent Patterson function provides a natural context for describing the information content in coherent scattering, reveals that there is no inherent phase problem for coherently illuminated pointwise structures, and enables the design of an algorithm which retrieves the structure directly from the Patterson function, without using error metric minimization.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectral-density estimation with the Gaussian integral transform

The spectral-density operator $\hat{ρ}(ω) = δ(ω–\hat{H})$ plays a central role in linear response theory as its expectation value, the dynamical response function, can be used to compute scattering cross sections. In this work, we describe a near optimal quantum algorithm providing an approximation to the spectral density with energy resolution $\Delta$ and error $\epsilon$ using $O(\sqrt{\text{log}_2 (1/ε)[\text{log}_2 (1 / Δ) + \text{log}_2 (1/ε)]/ Δ)}$ operations. This is achieved without using expensive approximations to the time-evolution operator, but instead exploiting qubitization to implement an approximate Gaussian integral transform of the spectral density. Finally, we also describe appropriate error metrics to assess the quality of the spectral function approximations more generally.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inverter Model Validation and Calibration Using Phasor Measurement Unit Data

As the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy resources increases in the power grid, especially at the distribution and microgrid levels, the need to accurately represent them in planning studies increases as well. However, due to the lack of well-established standard procedures, and vendor reluctance towards the detailed sharing of proprietary models, automated dynamic model validation and parameter calibration tools for inverter based resources (IBRs) remain scarce. This work presents a model validation and parameter calibration platform for representing IBRs with generic phasor-domain models. Phasor measurements of power system events are used for continuous validation using the data playback method, and model parameters are re-calibrated if a significant mismatch between measurements and model response is observed. Unique features of the proposed platform include- (a) an iterative Bayesian optimization approach towards parameter calibration to address a possible mismatch between the structures of generic models implemented in simulation softwares and actual commercial inverters, (b) error metrics designed to account for a possible mismatch between the time resolution of simulation and measurements, and (c) analysis of the measurement-simulation mismatch to provide guidance to engineering personnel regarding model shortcomings. The performance of the platform has been illustrated using both simulated data and field measurements to validate/calibrate inverter models in GridLAB-D.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Noise-Resilient and Reduced Depth Approximate Adders for NISQ Quantum Computing

The "Noisy intermediate-scale quantum" NISQ machine era primarily focuses on mitigating noise, controlling errors, and executing high-fidelity operations, hence requiring shallow circuit depth and noise robustness. Approximate computing is a novel computing paradigm that produces imprecise results by relaxing the need for fully precise output for error-tolerant applications including multimedia, data mining, and image processing. We investigate how approximate computing can improve the noise resilience of quantum adder circuits in NISQ quantum computing. We propose five designs of approximate quantum adders to reduce depth while making them noise-resilient, in which three designs are with carryout, while two are without carryout. We have used novel design approaches that include approximating the Sum only from the inputs (pass-through designs) and having zero depth, as they need no quantum gates. The second design style uses a single CNOT gate to approximate the SUM with a constant depth of O(1). We performed our experimentation on IBM Qiskit on noise models including thermal, depolarizing, amplitude damping, phase damping, and bitflip: (i) Compared to exact quantum ripple carry adder without carryout the proposed approximate adders without carryout have improved fidelity ranging from 8.34% to 219.22%, and (ii) Compared to exact quantum ripple carry adder with carryout the proposed approximate adders with carryout have improved fidelity ranging from 8.23% to 371%. Further, the proposed approximate quantum adders are evaluated in terms of various error metrics.

Gaur, Bhaskar↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling [SWR-25-20]

Code repository for the experiments performed in the paper: On the Effectiveness of Neural Operators at Zero-Shot Weather Downscaling (https://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2025.11) Overall, our work investigates the zero-shot downscaling potential of neural operators. To summarize, our contributions are: 1. We provide a comparative analysis based on two challenging weather downscaling problems, between various neural operator and non-neural-operator methods with large upsampling factors (e.g., 8x and 15x) and fine grid resolutions (e.g., 2 km × 2 km wind speed). 2. We examine whether neural operator layers provide unique advantages when testing downscaling models on upsampling factors higher than those seen during training, i.e., zero-shot downscaling. Our results instead show the surprising success of an approach that combines a powerful transformer-based model with a parameter-free interpolation step at zero-shot weather downscaling. 3. We find that this Swin-Transformer-based approach mostly outperforms all neural operator models in terms of average error metrics, whereas an enhanced super-resolution generative adversarial network (ESRGAN)-based approach is better than most models in capturing the physics of the system, and suggests their use in future work as strong baselines. However, these approaches still do not capture variations at smaller spatial scales well, including the physical characteristics of turbulence in the HR data. This suggests a potential for improvement in transformer or GAN-based methods and neural-operator-based methods for zero-shot weather downscaling.

Sinha, Saumya [National Renewable Energy Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Solar Energy Resource for Puerto Rico

After Hurricane Maria, multiple U.S. Department of Energy laboratories studied the state of the electric grid in Puerto Rico and analyzed grid resilience and grid integration of renewable energy. As part of the work done at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, researchers created new solar resource data, conducted a technical potential and supply curve analysis, and studied the interannual variability of the solar resource. A new methodology was developed to downscale solar resource data from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) from a 4-km x 4-km spatial and 30-minute temporal resolution to a 2 km x 2 km and 5-minute resolution. This methodology primarily used simple physical principles to develop high-resolution cloud properties which were then used to compute solar radiation. The high-resolution datasets were validated against ground measurements and the error metrics were found to be similar to the original lower resolution dataset. Using 20 years of downscaled data from the NSRDB multi-year capacity factors for photovoltaics (PV) were developed for both single-axis tracking and fixed latitude-tilt configurations. Use of the multi-year data provides the ability to understand variability in capacity factors due to variability in weather over a long period of time. For Puerto Rico the coastal regions were found to have significant higher capacity factors than inland. Using land-use and terrain information a technical potential analysis was conducted for Puerto Rico. This analysis restricted single PV plant development to a maximum of 100 MW nameplate capacity. The nameplate capacity for each municipality were then determined. Based on our assumptions, 56 of the 78 total municipalities of Puerto Rico contain some level of solar capacity. Most of the interior municipalities did not have any capacity because of the geographic exclusions used in this study. The lowest capacity for a PV plant observed in a municipality was 10 MW. The maximum capacity within a county was 2,000 MW. Further a supply curve analysis was conducted by taking the results of the technical potential and quantifying system and transmission costs. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was calculated for each theoretical PV plant site, and the levelized cost of transmission was added to the LCOE to produce a total cost estimate for each site. The results of the supply curve analysis allow for a relative comparison of the cost for integrating new PV capacity into the grid. This analysis indicates that cheaper total LCOE sites tend to be larger in capacity. The total capacity in this study was found to be far beyond the maximum peak load for the island. However, this study does not consider the economic and market potential for development. The cumulative capacity presented in this study assumes that the best locations are developed first and ignores the complex decision paths for new power plant development. Therefore, this analysis can only be treated as illustrative. Finally this study investigates the impact of inter-annual variability of resource using a variety of metrices including probability of exceedance and variation in capacity factor and LCOE. This study demonstrates that the capacity factor or LCOE could vary by over 10% year to year. This clearly indicates the risks involved in using any particular year of data and clearly points to the use of multi-year data to reduce some of the risks related to variability in weather.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗