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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level-Set Transformation

The facies-based approach has been widely adopted to delineate an aquifer into distinct geological units with unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties. The recent development in ensemble-based data assimilation methods allows both the direct and indirect data to be used to improve facies delineation. A major difficulty in those applications is to honor the spatial continuity and avoid overfitting after data assimilation. We introduce a new facies delineation framework to integrate ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. A level-set concept is used to parametrize discrete facies indicators and for updating facies shape. During the iterative data assimilation process, we impose spatial continuity by conditioning facies field generation on points selected adaptively based on their sensitivity to observation data. This reconditioning step is a key step to maintain spatial continuity and overcome over-fitting problems in inversion. We selected two examples to evaluate the performance of the new framework in estimating facies-based permeability field. The first example is a two-dimensional synthetic system with transient head data induced by pumping tests used for delineating two facies. The second example is a three-dimensional case with three facies, conceptualized from a field tracer experiment within the Columbia River corridor in Washington State, USA. Both examples demonstrate that the new method can adequately capture the spatial pattern of hydrofacies with reconditioning, which leads to the improved prediction of system behaviors.

Song, Xuehang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adversarial autoencoder ensemble for fast and probabilistic reconstructions of few-shot photon correlation functions for solid-state quantum emitters

Second-order photon correlation measurements [g (2) (τ) functions] are widely used to classify single-photon emission purity in quantum emitters or to measure the multiexciton quantum yield of emitters that can simultaneously host multiple excitations – such as quantum dots – by evaluating the value of g (2) (τ = 0). Accumulating enough photons to accurately calculate this value is time consuming and could be accelerated by fitting of few-shot photon correlations. Here, we develop an uncertainty-aware, deep adversarial autoencoder ensemble (AAE) that reconstructs noise-free g (2) (τ) functions from noise-dominated, few-shot inputs. The model is trained with simulated g (2) (τ) functions that are facilely generated by Poisson sampling time bins. The AAE reconstructions are performed orders-of-magnitude faster, with reconstruction errors and estimates of g (2) (τ = 0) that are lower in variance and similar in accuracy compared to Maximum likelihood estimation and Levenberg-Marquardt least-squares fitting approaches, for simulated and experimentally measured few-shot g (2) (τ) functions (~100 two-photon events) of InP/ZnS/ZnSe and CdS/CdSe/CdS quantum dots. The deep-ensemble model comprises eight individual autoencoders, allowing for probabilistic reconstructions of noise-free g (2) (τ) functions, and we show that the predicted variance scales inversely with number of shots, with comparable uncertainties to computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, this work demonstrates the advantage of machine learning models to perform uncertainty-aware, fast, and accurate reconstructions of simple Poisson-distributed photon correlation functions, allowing for on-the-fly reconstructions and accelerated materials characterization of solid-state quantum emitters.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models

Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Linear Time-Invariant Models of a Large Cumulus Ensemble

Abstract Methods in system identification are used to obtain linear time-invariant state-space models that describe how horizontal averages of temperature and humidity of a large cumulus ensemble evolve with time under small forcing. The cumulus ensemble studied here is simulated with cloud-system-resolving models in radiative–convective equilibrium. The identified models extend steady-state linear response functions used in past studies and provide accurate descriptions of the transfer function, the noise model, and the behavior of cumulus convection when coupled with two-dimensional gravity waves. A novel procedure is developed to convert the state-space models into an interpretable form, which is used to elucidate and quantify memory in cumulus convection. The linear problem studied here serves as a useful reference point for more general efforts to obtain data-driven and interpretable parameterizations of cumulus convection.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles

Abstract. This work assesses a recently produced 21-member climate model large ensemble (LE) based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SM2). The ensemble spans the historical era (1850 to 2014) and 21st century (2015 to 2100), using the SSP370 pathway, allowing for an evaluation of the model's forced response. A companion 500-year preindustrial control simulation is used to initialize the ensemble and estimate drift. Characteristics of the LE are documented and compared against other recently produced ensembles using the E3SM version 1 (E3SM1) and Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2. Simulation drift is found to be smaller, and model agreement with observations is higher in versions 2 of E3SM and CESM versus their version 1 counterparts. Shortcomings in E3SM2 include a lack of warming from the mid to late 20th century, likely due to excessive cooling influence of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, an issue also evident in E3SM1. Associated impacts on the water cycle and energy budgets are also identified. Considerable model dependence in the response to both aerosols and greenhouse gases is documented and E3SM2's sensitivity to variable prescribed biomass burning emissions is demonstrated. Various E3SM2 and CESM2 model benchmarks are found to be on par with the highest-performing recent generation of climate models, establishing the E3SM2 LE as an important resource for estimating climate variability and responses, though with various caveats as discussed herein. As an illustration of the usefulness of LEs in estimating the potential influence of internal variability, the observed CERES-era trend in net top-of-atmosphere flux is compared to simulated trends and found to be much larger than the forced response in all LEs, with only a few members exhibiting trends as large as observed, thus motivating further study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Atomistic structural ensemble refinement reveals non-native structure stabilizes a sub-millisecond folding intermediate of CheY

The dynamics of globular proteins can be described in terms of transitions between a folded native state and less-populated intermediates, or excited states, which can play critical roles in both protein folding and function. Excited states are by definition transient species, and therefore are difficult to characterize using current experimental techniques. We report an atomistic model of the excited state ensemble of a stabilized mutant of an extensively studied flavodoxin fold protein CheY. We employed a hybrid simulation and experimental approach in which an aggregate 42 milliseconds of all-atom molecular dynamics were used as an informative prior for the structure of the excited state ensemble. The resulting prior was then refined against small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data employing an established method (EROS). The most striking feature of the resulting excited state ensemble was an unstructured N-terminus stabilized by non-native contacts in a conformation that is topologically simpler than the native state. We then predict incisive single molecule FRET experiments, using these results, as a means of model validation. Our study demonstrates the paradigm of uniting simulation and experiment in a statistical model to study the structure of protein excited states and rationally design validating experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Data Assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2015

Predicting X-ray diffuse scattering from translation–libration–screw structural ensembles

A method of simulating X-ray diffuse scattering from multi-model PDB files is presented. Despite similar agreement with Bragg data, different translation–libration–screw refinement strategies produce unique diffuse intensity patterns. Identifying the intramolecular motions of proteins and nucleic acids is a major challenge in macromolecular X-ray crystallography. Because Bragg diffraction describes the average positional distribution of crystalline atoms with imperfect precision, the resulting electron density can be compatible with multiple models of motion. Diffuse X-ray scattering can reduce this degeneracy by reporting on correlated atomic displacements. Although recent technological advances are increasing the potential to accurately measure diffuse scattering, computational modeling and validation tools are still needed to quantify the agreement between experimental data and different parameterizations of crystalline disorder. A new tool, phenix.diffuse, addresses this need by employing Guinier’s equation to calculate diffuse scattering from Protein Data Bank (PDB)-formatted structural ensembles. As an example case, phenix.diffuse is applied to translation–libration–screw (TLS) refinement, which models rigid-body displacement for segments of the macromolecule. To enable the calculation of diffuse scattering from TLS-refined structures, phenix.tls-as-xyz builds multi-model PDB files that sample the underlying T, L and S tensors. In the glycerophosphodiesterase GpdQ, alternative TLS-group partitioning and different motional correlations between groups yield markedly dissimilar diffuse scattering maps with distinct implications for molecular mechanism and allostery. These methods demonstrate how, in principle, X-ray diffuse scattering could extend macromolecular structural refinement, validation and analysis.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gaussian Mixture Model-Based Ensemble Kalman Filter for Machine Parameter Calibration

This letter proposes a novel Gaussian mixture model-based ensemble Kalman filter (GMM-EnKF) approach to the accurate calibration of the parameters of machine dynamic models. This approach aims to overcome some practical challenges of machine parameter calibration. Results show the proposed approach can provide high-accuracy calibrated parameters even when the machine operates under unbalanced network conditions and the measurement noises are non-Gaussian.

Fan, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2018

Precise Fault Location on Transmission Lines Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Accurate pin-pointing of faults on transmission lines minimizes outage time, labor, and costs. This letter proposes a simple yet effective ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach to accurately locating the faults on transmission lines within half-cycle time. The approach is easy to implement and does not require foreknowledge of either the fault type or an approximate guess of the fault location. Extensive results validate the effectiveness and accuracy of the EnKF-based fault location approach.

Fan, Rui↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

An ensemble constrained variational analysis of atmospheric forcing data and its application to evaluate clouds in CAM5: Ensemble 3DCVA and Its Application

Large-scale atmospheric forcing data can greatly impact the simulations of atmospheric process models including Large Eddy Simulations (LES), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) and Single-Column Models (SCMs), and impact the development of physical parameterizations in global climate models. This study describes the development of an ensemble variationally constrained objective analysis of atmospheric large-scale forcing data and its application to evaluate the cloud biases in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5). Sensitivities of the variational objective analysis to background data, error covariance matrix and constraint variables are described and used to quantify the uncertainties in the large-scale forcing data. Application of the ensemble forcing in the CAM5 SCM during March 2000 intensive operational period (IOP) at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program shows systematic biases in the model simulations that cannot be explained by the uncertainty of large-scale forcing data, which points to the deficiencies of physical parameterizations. The SCM is shown to overestimate high clouds and underestimate low clouds. These biases are found to also exist in the global simulation of CAM5 when it is compared with satellite data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble averaged structure–function relationship for nanocrystals: effective superparamagnetic Fe clusters with catalytically active Pt skin [Ensemble averaged structure-function relationship for composite nanocrystals: magnetic bcc Fe clusters with catalytically active fcc Pt skin]

Practical applications require the production and usage of metallic nanocrystals (NCs) in large ensembles. Besides, due to their cluster-bulk solid duality, metallic NCs exhibit a large degree of structural diversity. This poses the question as to what atomic-scale basis is to be used when the structure–function relationship for metallic NCs is to be quantified precisely. In this paper, we address the question by studying bi-functional Fe core-Pt skin type NCs optimized for practical applications. In particular, the cluster-like Fe core and skin-like Pt surface of the NCs exhibit superparamagnetic properties and a superb catalytic activity for the oxygen reduction reaction, respectively. We determine the atomic-scale structure of the NCs by non-traditional resonant high-energy X-ray diffraction coupled to atomic pair distribution function analysis. Using the experimental structure data we explain the observed magnetic and catalytic behavior of the NCs in a quantitative manner. Lastly, we demonstrate that NC ensemble-averaged 3D positions of atoms obtained by advanced X-ray scattering techniques are a very proper basis for not only establishing but also quantifying the structure–function relationship for the increasingly complex metallic NCs explored for practical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

An efficient algorithm for simulating ensembles of parameterized flow problems

Abstract Many applications of computational fluid dynamics require multiple simulations of a flow under different input conditions. In this paper, a numerical algorithm is developed to efficiently determine a set of such simulations in which the individually independent members of the set are subject to different viscosity coefficients, initial conditions and/or body forces. The proposed scheme, when applied to the flow ensemble, needs to solve a single linear system with multiple right-hand sides, and thus is computationally more efficient than solving for all the simulations separately. We show that the scheme is nonlinearly and long-term stable under certain conditions on the time-step size and a parameter deviation ratio. A rigorous numerical error estimate shows the scheme is of first-order accuracy in time and optimally accurate in space. Several numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

Mathematics↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

The macroscopic behavior of cumulus ensembles simulated by a cumulus ensemble model

A number of simulation experiments are performed with the 2D UCLA cumulus ensemble model to study the macroscopic behavior of cumulus convection under a variety of different large-scale and underlying surface conditions. Specifically, the modulation of cumulus activity by the imposed large-scale processes and the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) budget are investigated in detail. In all simulations, cumulus convection is rather strongly modulated by large-scale advective processes in spite of the existence of some nonmodulated high-frequency fluctuations. The modulation exhibits some phase delays, however, when the basic wind shear is strong. This is presumably associated with the existence of mesoscale convective organization. The EKE budget analysis shows that the net eddy buoyancy generation rate is nearly zero for a wind range of cumulus ensembles.

Xu, Kuan-Man↗