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Overview of recent turbulence studies across multiple confinement modes at the ASDEX Upgrade tokamak using the Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission diagnostic

This work presents an overview of recent and ongoing experimental measurements of core and edge turbulence across multiple confinement regimes using the Correlation Electron Cyclotron Emission (CECE) diagnostic at the ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) tokamak. A common goal among these investigations is to identify how the properties of the turbulent electron temperature fluctuations measured by CECE influence and regulate the unique transport characteristics of each confinement regime, including L-mode, I-mode, ELMy H-mode, and ELM-free H-mode. Optics and signal processing methods to aid in the analysis and interpretation of experimental turbulence results are also presented. These methods, and particularly the down-sampling and ensemble averaging method, are relevant to a wide variety of fusion and non-fusion applications.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Efficient Decision Trees for Tensor Regressions

Here, we proposed the tensor-input tree (TT) method for scalar-on-tensor and tensor-on-tensor regression problems. We first address scalar-on-tensor problem by proposing scalar-output regression tree models whose input variables are tensors (i.e., multi-way arrays). We devised and implemented fast randomized and deterministic algorithms for efficient fitting of scalar-on-tensor trees, making TT competitive against tensor-input GP models (Yu, Li, and Liu; Sun et al.). Based on scalar-on-tensor tree models, we extend our method to tensor-on-tensor problems using additive tree ensemble approaches. Theoretical justification and extensive experiments, including testing robustness to entrywise input tensor noise, are provided on real and synthetic datasets to illustrate the performance of TT. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/hrluo/TensorDecisionTreeRegressor. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Decision tree regressions

Early events in G-quadruplex folding captured by time-resolved small-angle X-ray scattering

Abstract Time-resolved small-angle X-ray experiments are reported here that capture and quantify a previously unknown rapid collapse of the unfolded oligonucleotide as an early step in the folding of hybrid 1 and hybrid 2 telomeric G-quadruplex structures. The rapid collapse, initiated by a pH jump, is characterized by an exponential decrease in the radius of gyration from 24.3 to 12.6 Å. The collapse is monophasic and is complete in <600 ms. Additional hand-mixing pH-jump kinetic studies show that slower kinetic steps follow the collapse. The folded and unfolded states at equilibrium were further characterized by SAXS studies and other biophysical tools, showing that G4 unfolding was complete at alkaline pH, but not in LiCl solution as is often claimed. The SAXS Ensemble Optimization Method analysis reveals models of the unfolded state as a dynamic ensemble of flexible oligonucleotide chains with a variety of transient hairpin structures. These results suggest a G4 folding pathway in which a rapid collapse, analogous to molten globule formation seen in proteins, is followed by a confined conformational search within the collapsed particle to form the native contacts ultimately found in the stable folded form.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology

Generalized representative structures for atomistic systems

A new method is presented to generate atomic structures that reproduce the essential characteristics of arbitrary material systems, phases, or ensembles. Previous methods allow one to reproduce the essential characteristics (e.g. the chemical disorder) of a large random alloy within a small crystal structure. The ability to generate small representations of random alloys, along with the restriction to crystal systems, results from using the fixed-lattice cluster correlations to describe structural characteristics. A more general description of the structural characteristics of atomic systems is obtained using complete sets of atomic environment descriptors. These are used within for generating representative atomic structures without restriction to fixed lattices. A general data-driven approach is provided here utilizing the atomic cluster expansion (ACE) basis. The N-body ACE descriptors are a complete set of atomic environment descriptors that span both chemical and spatial degrees of freedom and are used within for describing atomic structures. The generalized representative structure (GRS) method presented within generates small atomic structures that reproduce ACE descriptor distributions corresponding to arbitrary structural and chemical complexity. It is shown that systematically improvable representations of crystalline systems on fixed parent lattices, amorphous materials, liquids, and ensembles of atomic structures may be produced efficiently through optimization algorithms. With the GRS method, we highlight reduced representations of atomistic machine-learning training datasets that contain similar amounts of information and small 40–72 atom representations of liquid phases. The ability to use GRS methodology as a driver for informed novel structure generation is also demonstrated. The advantages over other data-driven methods and state-of-the-art methods restricted to high-symmetry systems are highlighted.

atomic cluster expansion

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING

Ensemble Simulations on Leadership Computing Systems

Scientific productivity can be enhanced through workflow management tools, relieving large High Performance Computing (HPC) system users from the tedious tasks of scheduling and designing the complex computational execution of scientific applications. This paper presents a study on the usage of ensemble workflow tools to accelerate science using the Summit and Frontier supercomputing systems. The research aims to connect science domain simulations using Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) supercomputing platforms with ensemble workflow methods in order to accelerate HPC-enabled discovery and boost scientific impact. We present the coupling, porting and optimization of Radical-Cybertools on three applications: Chroma, NAMD and LAMMPS. The tools augment traditional HPC monolithic runs with a pilot scheduler. Lessons-learned are discussed for physics, biology and materials science applications. We discuss intrinsic limitations of coupling and porting ensemble workflow tools to applications that run on large HPC systems. The origins of technical challenges and their solutions developed during the implementation process are discussed. Data management strategies, OLCF’s policies for ensembles, and natively supported workflow tools are also summarized.

Georgiadou, Antigoni [ORNL] (ORCID:000000020977631

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences

Uncertainty quantification of a physics-informed model based on sparse identification of a Thermal Energy Distribution System

Integrated energy systems (IES)s are crucial for enhancing the economy and efficiency of power generation sources (e.g., nuclear energy) necessary to unleash American energy dominance. These systems can be integrated with thermal energy storage (TES) and intermittent renewable energies to optimize overall energy use, peak-load regulation, and demand-side responses. However, the stabilization of energy generation, transport, and utilization introduces operational complexities that exceed the challenges of managing each sub-component individually. Currently, though IESs rely on human operators for efficiency and stability, reducing human error risk and enhancing performance through automation is highly desirable. Recent advances at Idaho National Laboratory have demonstrated successful control of the Thermal Energy Distributed System (TEDS). However, the automatic control system depends on a deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC) model, which are trained based on simulation data from physics-based simulations. Because of uncertainties in physics-based simulation, SINDyC model results in large discrepancies against experimental data and cannot be reliably used in automatic control. In this paper, we present an innovative approach to address these discrepancies by quantifying uncertainties and developing a more robust model. We first generated trajectories by using first-principles physics codes to encapsulate the experiment. Next, we trained thousands of models by randomly sampling these trajectories. We then collapsed all those models into one probabilistic SINDyC by fitting a multivariate Gaussian distribution onto the resulting coefficient’s distribution. Despite its simplicity, our approach successfully produced 95% confidence intervals that captured the experimental trajectories. It even did so with a higher probability and better U-pooling score across six of the seven relevant quantities of interest (QoIs), as compared to other classical approaches. In conclusion, ongoing research is focusing on generating new experimental trajectories to validate this approach, and on employing Bayesian calibration to refine parametric uncertainties and guide future model development efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Ensemble Monte Carlo calculations with five novel moves

We introduce five novel types of Monte Carlo (MC) moves that brings the number of moves of ensemble MC calculations from three to eight. So far such calculations have relied on affine invariant stretch moves that were originally introduced by Christen (2007), walk moves by Goodman and Weare (2010) and quadratic moves by Militzer (2023). Ensemble MC methods have been very popular because they harness information about the fitness landscape from a population of walkers rather than relying on expert knowledge. Here we modified the affine method and employed a simplex of points to set the stretch direction. We adopt the simplex concept to quadratic moves. We also generalize quadratic moves to arbitrary order. Finally, we introduce directed moves that employ the values of the probability density while all other types of moves rely solely on the location of the walkers. We apply all algorithms to the Rosenbrock density in 2 and 20 dimensions and to the ring potential in 12 and 24 dimensions. We evaluate their efficiency by comparing error bars, autocorrelation time, travel time, and the level of cohesion that measures whether any walkers were left behind. Our code is open source.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Stacked reverberation mapping of high-redshift quasars in DESI. I. Feasibility analysis

The broad-line region of quasars has long been probed by reverberation mapping techniques that measure time lags between continuum and broad emission-line variations. Stacked reverberation mapping has been proposed as a less observationally expensive alternative to traditional methods. This ensemble approach also reduces biases from small-number statistics. The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is conducting the most extensive spectroscopic survey of quasars to date. We create mock light curves emulating expected DESI quasar observations at redshifts $1.48\lt z\lt 5.2$ and luminosities $44.68 \le \log \lambda L_{1350 \mathring{\rm A}{}} / \mathrm{erg\, s^{-1}} \le 45.99$ to test stacked reverberation mapping feasibility using sparse spectroscopic data paired with well-sampled photometric data. The pipeline, using the lag estimation code JAVELIN (Just Another Vehicle for Estimating Lags In Nuclei), successfully recovers the simulated C IV lags within 1σ of the true values using spectroscopic light curves composed of only a few spectral epochs (2–10) with irregular cadences. We investigate how observational factors, including C IV flux error magnitude, number of stacked quasars, and spectral epoch count, affect performance. This work motivates a pathway for future stacked reverberation mapping projects with large-scale spectroscopic surveys of quasars having $\ge 2$ spectroscopic observations. Our results suggest an economical alternative for constraining and extending the radius–luminosity relation to higher redshifts and luminosities. Subsequently, this relation can be employed more reliably in single-epoch black hole mass measurements and quasar cosmology in these distant regimes.

quasars: general, quasars: supermassive black hole

pnnl/SNAP

In this work, we detail two uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that provide complementary information. Readout ensembling, by finetuning only the readout layers of an ensemble of foundation models, provides information about model uncertainty. Amending the final readout layer to predict upper and lower quantiles replaces point predictions with distributional predictions, which provide information about uncertainty within the underlying training data. We demonstrate our approach with the MACE-MP-0 model, applying UQ to both the foundation model and a series of finetuned models. The uncertainties produced by the ensemble and quantile methods are demonstrated to be distinct measures by which the quality of the NNP output can be judged.

Pope, Jenna (Bilbrey) [Pacific Northwest National

Fast HARDI Uncertainty Quantification and Visualization with Spherical Sampling

In this paper, we study uncertainty quantification and visualization of orientation distribution functions (ODF), which corresponds to the diffusion profile of high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data. The shape inclusion probability (SIP) function is the state‐of‐the‐art method for capturing the uncertainty of ODF ensembles. The current method of computing the SIP function with a volumetric basis exhibits high computational and memory costs, which can be a bottleneck to integrating uncertainty into HARDI visualization techniques and tools. We propose a novel spherical sampling framework for faster computation of the SIP function with lower memory usage and increased accuracy. In particular, we propose direct extraction of SIP isosurfaces, which represent confidence intervals indicating spatial uncertainty of HARDI glyphs, by performing spherical sampling of ODFs. Our spherical sampling approach requires much less sampling than the state‐of‐the‐art volume sampling method, thus providing significantly enhanced performance, scalability, and the ability to perform implicit ray tracing. Our experiments demonstrate that the SIP isosurfaces extracted with our spherical sampling approach can achieve up to 8164× speedup, 37282× memory reduction, and 50.2% less SIP isosurface error compared to the classical volume sampling approach. We demonstrate the efficacy of our methods through experiments on synthetic and human‐brain HARDI datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Ensemble cure kinetics network (ECK-Net): A method to derive cure kinetics of thermosetting resin

This paper introduces an Ensemble Cure Kinetics Network (ECK-Net), a neural network (NN)–based framework for modeling the cure kinetics of thermosetting resins within a phenomenological context. ECK-Net replaces traditional analytic models, which require extensive chemical insight and multiple isothermal/non-isothermal experiments, with a data-driven surrogate that maps nonlinear relationships between temperature, degree of cure, and reaction rate from differential scanning calorimetry data. The proposed approach predicts input-dependent kinetic coefficients of a generalized nth-order reaction equation rather than reaction rates directly, enabling a single unified model to represent various epoxy systems without relying on iso-conversional analysis or predefined functional forms. To ensure robustness, multiple independently trained networks under different random initializations are blended through an ensemble strategy, effectively mitigating the stochastic variability inherent to neural networks. The framework is validated using experimental datasets from multiple resin systems, including aerospace-grade materials (Toray 3900-2, Cycom 5320-1, and Hexcel 8552) and a windmill-grade resin (RIMR 035c). The model accurately reproduces the temporal evolution of the degree of cure under manufacturers’ recommended cure cycles across all tested resins systems, yielding Pearson’s correlation coefficients of 0.992, 0.994, 0.993, 0.997, respectively. To demonstrate process-level applicability, the trained network was implemented within the Abaqus environment to simulate out-of-autoclave (OOA) curing process of the CFRP panel composed of Toray T830H-6K/3900-2D prepreg. The simulation results showed excellent agreement with experimental temperature response (maximum peak temperature, simulation: 189.6 °C, experiment: 188.5 °C) and the final degree of cure (simulation: 0.948, experiment: 0.960 ± 0.013), confirming ECK-Net’s capability as a reliable alternative to conventional cure kinetics modeling methods.

Composite curing

Selecting Appropriate Model Complexity: An Example of Tracer Inversion for Thermal Prediction in Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Abstract A major challenge in the inversion of subsurface parameters is the ill‐posedness issue caused by the inherent subsurface complexities and the generally spatially sparse data. Appropriate simplifications of inversion models are thus necessary to make the inversion process tractable and meanwhile preserve the predictive ability of the inversion results. In this study, we investigate the effect of model complexity on fracture aperture inversion and thermal performance prediction in a field‐scale EGS model. Principal component analysis was used to map the aperture field to a low‐dimensional latent space. The complexity of the inversion model was quantitatively represented by the percentage of total variance in the original aperture fields preserved by the latent space. Tracer, pressure and flow rate data were used to invert for fracture aperture through an ensemble‐based inversion method, and the inferred aperture field was used to predict thermal performance. With an over‐simplified aperture model, ensemble collapse occurred. The inverted aperture models failed to resolve necessary flow and transport features, leading to a biased thermal performance prediction. A complex aperture model involved excessive features and was prone to overinterpreting the inversion data. Both the tracer/pressure/flow rate data reproduction and thermal prediction showed significant uncertainties, making it difficult to properly estimate long‐term thermal performance. Fortunately, our results indicate that there exists an appropriate model complexity which can simultaneously match inversion data and predict thermal performance with an acceptable uncertainty. The quality of the fit of tracer data appears to be a useful indicator of such an appropriate model complexity.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING

Hyperspectral Detection of the Fluorescence Shift between Chirality-Sorted Empty and Water-Filled Single-Wall Carbon Nanotube Enantiomers

Single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) have extraordinary electronic and optical properties that depend strongly on their exact chiral structure and their interaction with their inner and outer environment. The fluorescence (PL) of semiconducting SWCNTs, for instance, will shift depending on the molecules with which the SWCNT’s hollow core is filled. These interaction-induced shifts are challenging to resolve on the ensemble level in samples containing a mixture of different filling contents due to the relatively large inhomogeneous line width of the ensemble SWCNT PL compared to the size of these shifts. To circumvent this inhomogeneous broadening, single-tube spectroscopy and hyperspectral imaging are often applied, which until now required time-consuming statistical studies. Here, we present hyperspectral PL microscopy combined with automated SWCNT segmenting based on either principal component analysis or a convolutional neural network, capable of both spatially and spectrally resolving the PL along the length of many individual SWCNTs at the same time and automatically fitting peak positions and line widths of individual SWCNTs. The methodology is demonstrated by accurately determining the emission shifts and line widths of thousands of left- and right-handed empty and water-filled SWCNTs coated with a chiral surfactant, resulting in four statistical distributions which cannot be resolved in ensemble spectroscopy of unsorted samples. The results demonstrate a robust method to quickly probe ensemble properties with single-enantiomer spectral resolution. Moreover, it promises to be an absolute quantitative method to characterize the relative abundances of SWCNTs with different handedness or filling content in macroscopic samples, simply by counting individual species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH