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At least 37 records · Page 2

Evaluation of Shot-to-Shot In-Nozzle Flow Variations in a Heavy-Duty Diesel Injector Using Real Nozzle Geometry

Cyclic variability in internal combustion engines (ICEs) arises from multiple concurrent sources, many of which remain to be fully understood and controlled. This variability can, in turn, affect the behavior of the engine resulting in undesirable deviations from the expected operating conditions and performance. Shot-to-shot variation during the fuel injection process is strongly suspected of being a source of cyclic variability. This study focuses on the shot-to-shot variability of injector needle motion and its influence on the internal nozzle flow behavior using diesel fuel. High-speed x-ray imaging techniques have been used to extract high-resolution injector geometry images of the sac, orifices, and needle tip that allowed the true dynamics of the needle motion to emerge. These measurements showed high repeatability in the needle lift profile across multiple injection events, while the needle radial displacement was characterized by a much higher degree of randomness. A robust and previously validated computational setup from the authors’ research group using a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code has been adapted for the eight-hole heavy-duty common-rail diesel injector used for the measurements. The simulation results obtained using the x-ray-scanned geometry have been validated against available experimental data of mass flow rate at the nozzle exit. The fuel mass flow rate has then been analyzed at three different injection pressures that cover the conditions at which the injector typically operates during normal engine operation. Finally, the average off-axis motion of the needle has been perturbed (based on the variability found in the experimental measurements) to generate three new cases that present different amplitude and phasing of the radial displacement with respect to the baseline average motion. Furthermore, this revealed the effects of off-axis motion on shot-to-shot and orifice-to-orifice variations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Electrification FY2020 Annual Progress Report

The Electric Drive Technologies (EDT) program’s mission is to conduct early-stage research and development on transportation electrification technologies that accelerate the development of cost-effective and compact electric traction drive systems that meet or exceed performance and reliability requirements of internal combustion engine (ICE)-based vehicles, thereby enabling electrification across all light-duty vehicle types.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling of reciprocating internal combustion engines for power generation and heat recovery

This paper presents a power generation and heat recovery model for reciprocating internal combustion engines (ICEs). The purpose of the proposed model is to provide realistic estimates of performance/efficiency maps for both electrical power output and useful thermal output for various capacities of engines for use in a preliminary CHP design/simulation process. The proposed model will serve as an alternative to constant engine efficiencies or empirical efficiency curves commonly used in the current literature for simulations of CHP systems. The engine performance/efficiency calculation algorithm has been coded to a publicly distributed FORTRAN Dynamic Link Library (DLL), and a user friendly tool has been developed using Visual Basic programming. Simulation results using the proposed model are validated against manufacturer’s technical data.

combined heat and power, internal combustion engin↗

Multicycle large-eddy simulations of a direct-injection hydrogen-fueled optical engine

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a carbon-free chemical energy carrier and one promising solution for achieving effective decarbonization of the transportation sector, particularly for internal combustion engines (ICEs). With a focus on ICEs, and compared to port-fuel injection, direct injection (DI) of gaseous H 2 during the compression stroke offers potential advantages, which include backfire avoidance and reduction of preignition occurrence. In these last two decades, much research, experimental and numerical, has been devoted to understanding H 2 's mixing and combustion processes in ICEs. Computational fluid dynamics modeling efforts commonly rely on unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes (URANS) turbulence frameworks, mostly due to their computational affordability. However, many authors have pointed out the opportunity to perform large-eddy simulations (LESs) to investigate the cyclic variability of H 2 engines and assess potential advantages of using LES in place of URANS, especially for lean operation. This study addresses this knowledge gap and presents a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of the H 2 DI process in an optical engine operating at relatively low tumble conditions, using multicycle LESs. In conclusion, the manuscript presents a thorough validation of the results against experimental data available from the literature as well as direct comparison with URANS, demonstrating the feasibility of multicycle LESs for CFD modeling of DI H 2 -fueled ICEs.

Direct injection↗

High-speed impact of micron-sized diesel drop trains—Splashing dynamics, secondary droplet formation, and effects of pre-existing film thickness

This work investigates surface impingement of monodispersed diesel drop trains using computational simulations. The three-dimensional simulations include high-speed impact of micrometer-sized fuel drops onto initially dry and wetted stainless steel substrates. The drop size and impact velocity are representative of fuel injection conditions in internal combustion engines (ICEs). The drop trains serve as a simplified representation of fuel spray. To accurately capture the film that naturally develops on initially dry substrates, a dynamic diesel-stainless steel contact angle model was developed using experiments of single drop impact under ICE representative temperature. Simulations are presented for a highly splashing case and the effects of a pre-existing film on splashing dynamics were investigated, including the temporal evolution of splashed mass and film thickness. It was concluded that for thin films, the effect of pre-existing film thickness is less significant than in single drop impingement. Secondary droplet characterization was performed on simulation results, leading to instantaneous and time-averaged distributions of secondary droplet size, velocity magnitude, and trajectory angle. It was found that for each drop impingement, approximately 58% of the splashed mass is from the impinging drop itself, while the remainder of the splashed mass is composed of film liquid. From a high resolution case, details of secondary droplet formation are observed and three distinct phases of secondary droplet formation are identified. The detailed analysis of drop train impingement under engine-relevant conditions serves as a first step toward a robust understanding of fuel impingement and the development of cleaner and more efficient ICEs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Combustion-Pele: An Exascale Capability for Improving Engine Design

Combustion, the complex chemical reaction made possible by igniting a mixture of fuel and oxygen to produce heat and light, serves as the nation’s primary source of power generation and the linchpin of the transportation industry. For more than 100 years, internal combustion engines (ICEs) have been converting energy from the burning of fuel—gasoline, for example—into a mechanical process that makes vehicles move. Recently, ICEs have come under heavy scrutiny for their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, yet combustion-based systems are projected to dominate the marketplace for decades. Exascale systems are helping researchers design new high-efficiency, low-emission combustion engines that operate at much lower temperatures to maintain the nation’s energy security and limit negative environmental impacts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

LES FOR SIMULATING THE GAS EXCHANGE PROCESS IN A SPARK IGNITION ENGINE

The gas exchange process is known to be a significant source of cyclic variability in Internal Combustion Engines (ICE). Traditionally, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are expected to capture these cycle-to-cycle variations. This paper reports a numerical effort to establish best practices for capturing cyclic variability with LES tools in a Transparent Combustion Chamber (TCC) spark ignition engine. The main intention is to examine the sensitivity of cycle averaged mean and Root Mean Square (RMS) flow fields and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes to different computational hardware, adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) and LES sub-grid scale (SGS) models, since these aspects have received little attention in the past couple of decades. This study also examines the effect of near-wall resolution on the predicted wall shear stresses. LES is pursued with commercially available CONVERGE code. Two different SGS models are tested, a one-equation eddy viscosity model and dynamic structure model. The results seem to indicate that both mean and RMS fields without any SGS model are not much different than those with LES models, either one-equation eddy viscosity or dynamic structure model. Computational hardware results in subtle quantitative differences, especially in RMS distributions. The influence of AMR on both mean and RMS fields is negligible. The predicted shear stresses near the liner walls is also found to be relatively insensitive to near-wall resolution except in the valve curtain region.

Ameen, Muhsin M↗

Free-spray characteristics and spray-wall interactions of methanol on a gasoline direct injector under flash-boiling and non-flash-boiling conditions

Methanol is considered a promising alternative fuel for internal combustion engines (ICEs) due to its high-octane number, fast laminar flame speed, and elevated latent heat of vaporization, all of which support higher compression ratios and improved thermal efficiency. However, its substantial latent heat of vaporization also poses cold-start challenges, such as misfire and fuel film deposition. This study aims to investigate methanol spray morphology and spray-wall interaction using the Spray M injector from the Engine Combustion Network within a constant-pressure flow vessel. A recently developed unified numerical framework capable of modeling both flash and non-flash boiling sprays is validated against experimental liquid volume fraction data acquired via 3-D computed tomography. Here, the results reveal that flash boiling significantly alters the spray morphology, leading to smaller droplets and spray collapse due to enhanced air-entrainment-induced turbulence. Quantitative agreement between experiments and simulations confirms this behavior. Coupled 0-D equilibrium and 3-D computational fluid dynamics analyses show that flash boiling accelerates evaporation and reduces fuel residence time, while non-flash conditions maintain a persistent liquid core more susceptible to wall wetting. Wall temperature diagnostics reveal that spray collapse alters heat transfer patterns by shifting cooling effects. Mixture fraction analysis indicates that evaporation is primarily governed by shear-layer turbulence, though deviations from adiabatic equilibrium mixing emerge under low-turbulence conditions. Finally, increasing fuel, ambient, and wall temperatures reduces wall wetting and film thickness, mitigating cold-start risks. These findings enhance the understanding of methanol sprays’ behavior and support its adoption as a viable, alternative fuel for ICEs.

Engine Combustion Network↗

Temperature-Following Thermal Barrier Coatings for High Efficiency Engines (Final Report)

HRL Laboratories and General Motors (GM), pursued this effort to increase the efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICEs) by developing and implementing temperature-following thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) to decrease heat loss from the combustion chamber. HRL developed microsphere TBCs based on hollow high-temperature alloy spheres with average diameter of 50 μm and wall thickness ~1 μm (microspheres) that achieve unprecedented low thermal conductivity and heat capacity (10X lower than the state of the art) while offering exceptional environmental and mechanical resistance.> In current ICEs, approximately 29% of the fuel’s energy is lost to the cooling system and about 22% goes into moving the car. By limiting heat losses from the combustion chamber with insulating coatings, fuel energy can be redirected into additional piston work and into the exhaust stream. The additional energy that goes into the exhaust stream can be turned into useful work through the use of an exhaust energy recovery device, such as turbocompounding and/or through driving a turbocharger to increase the power density of the engine allowing downsizing. Insulating coatings for piston crowns have been pursued in the past, but previous materials—typically ceramics—exhibited low thermal conductivity but retained high heat capacity. Such materials reduce heat losses but stabilize at a high surface temperature. The high surface temperature heats the incoming gases, which lowers volumetric efficiency and increases propensity for knock, resulting in degraded engine performance. This program developed an innovative new material that combines low thermal conductivity with low heat capacity. These unique properties allow it to follow rapid changes in gas temperature during each combustion cycle. A metallic microsphere TBC has been demonstrated that exhibits increased surface temperature during the combustion period, resulting in reduced heat transfer losses, while still returning to a low surface temperature during the gas exchange period. A 10X lower thermal conductivity and heat capacity than state-of-the-art thermal barrier coatings has been demonstrated. These unprecedented thermal properties are achieved through the coating architecture, which consists of closed pores on the microscale and exhibits a total porosity of 90% to 95%. By selecting a high-temperature nickel alloy as the coating material, the ductility and strength of metals can be harnessed to achieve much better durability and damage tolerance than brittle ceramic coatings can achieve.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Implementation of waste-to-energy options in landfill-dominated countries: Economic evaluation and GHG impact

Highlights: • Replacing landfilling with WtE schemes in landfill-dominated European countries. • WtE schemes provide GHG reduction potential compared with landfilling. • Gasification schemes compare favorably with incineration. • Gasification with engine is the best option for GHG emissions and profitability. • Gate fee is the main factor affecting profitability in WtE schemes. - Abstract: The economic and environmental impact of several waste-to-energy (WtE) schemes to produce electricity from municipal solid waste (MSW) refuse is evaluated and compared with landfill disposal. Both incineration and gasification alternatives are considered. The gasification option includes three different configurations: (1) a fluidized bed gasifier (FBG) with internal combustion engine (ICE), (2) a FBG with organic Rankine cycle (ORC) and (3) a grate gasifier with steam Rankine cycle (SRC). The study is primarily applied to regions where the management system is based on Mechanical Biological Treatment (MBT) plants, generating a large share of refuse (>70%), which is currently landfilled. The specific case of Andalusia, a region in the south of Spain with 23 MBT plants distributed over a region of 87.000 km{sup 2}, where about 80% of municipal solid waste (MSW) is currently landfilled, is taken as main reference; thereafter, the study is further extended to preliminary assess other regions of some European landfill-dominated countries with similar characteristics. The results show that both incineration and gasification improve landfill disposal, contributing favorably to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and fulfilling EU environmental regulations, although the three gasification options analyzed yield lower GHG emissions than incineration. In addition, gasification enables better integration of WtE into existing MBT plants, especially in the particular case of Andalusia, where MBT plants are widespread on the region, making it a more promising option than incineration, which is mainly based on large centralized plants, and less socially accepted. From the options analyzed, the WtE scheme based on FBG with ICE gives the highest profitability for a given gate fee, due to much higher electrical efficiency. However, FBG with ORC seems to be a better option in the short-term for landfill-dominated countries, due to its higher technical reliability and the low gate fee currently available in these countries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Electric Vehicles, Biofuels, and Transitions in Transportation Energy

The decarbonization of power sources for light duty transportation is moving towards the use of renewable energies, biofuels, and electric vehicles. Currently there are three major light transportation fuels: gasoline (US gasoline is 98% E10), biofuels (E85), and electricity. Currently fuel ethanol in biofuels is obtained principally from corn in the US and sugarcane in Brazil with a small amount from cellulose. The transition to alternative fuels has been occurring since 1980, although light transportation still relies on gasoline. The rise of battery electric vehicles (BEV) is now beginning to offset internal combustion engines (ICE), while recent advances in biotechnology and integrated plant design have enhanced the economic feasibility of cellulosic biofuels. This paper explores the potential role of these fuels in reducing the carbon footprint associated with light transportation. We compare three different cases: Gasoline, E85 and full electric based on the Argonne AFLEET tool to calculate generation of greenhouse gases due to manufacturing and operation of BEV and ICE cars, respectively, in the US assuming an average useful automobile life of 200,000 miles or 12 years. We concluded that significant liquid fuel use (both renewable and non-renewable) will continue for the next 50 years. Here, renewable liquid fuels have an important role to play as the transportation sector transitions from petroleum to other energy sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Demonstration of Ego Vehicle and System Level Benefits of Eco-Driving on Chassis Dynamometer

Eco-Driving with connected and automated vehicles has shown potential to reduce energy consumption of an individual (i.e., ego) vehicle by up to 15%. In a project funded by ARPA-E, a team led by Southwest Research Institute demonstrated an 8-12% reduction in energy consumption on a 2017 Prius Prime. This was demonstrated in simulation as well as chassis dynamometer testing. The authors presented a simulation study that demonstrated corridor-level energy consumption improvements by about 15%. This study was performed by modeling a six-kilometer-long urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio for traffic simulations. Five powertrain models consisting of two battery electric vehicles (BEVs), a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), and two internal combustion engine (ICE) powered vehicles were developed. The design of experiment consisted of sweeps for various levels of traffic, penetration of smart vehicles, penetration of technology, and powertrain electrification. The large-scale simulation study consisted of doing approximately 96,000 powertrain simulations. A sophisticated clustering scheme was built and utilized to down select representative traces for each scenario from the simulation study for vehicle testing on a chassis dynamometer. Furthermore, this paper provides a summary of individual ego vehicle testing as well as a comprehensive overview of the method utilized for down selecting representative traces from large scale simulation studies that can be used to quantify corridor level benefits. Vehicle test results along with corresponding analyses are presented.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

From Futile to Fruitful: Diesel Soot as White Light Emitter

The present work describes a solution for the effective use of the hazardous particulate matter (diesel soot) from the internal combustion engines (ICEs) as a potential material emitting white light for white light emitting diodes (WLEDs). The washed soot samples are subjected to Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM), High- Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR-TEM), Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS), UV–Visible, Photoluminescent (PL) Spectroscopy and quantum yield measurements. The CIE plot and Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) reveals the white fluorescence on photoexcitation. The sample on ultraviolet (UV) laser excitation, provides a visual confirmation of white light emission from the sample. The diesel soot collected from public transport buses of different years of manufacture invariably exhibit white fluorescence at an excitation of 350 nm. The sample show a quantum yield of 47.09%. The study is significant in the context of pollution and search for low-cost, rare-earth phosphor free material for white light emission and thereby turning the hazardous, futile material into a fruitful material that can be used for potential applications in photonics and electronics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

6.26 Low Cost Basalt Fiber for Automotive Applications

Vehicle lightweighting is an essential component to the automotive industry to improve fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to meet ever improving emission standards and to improve the range of electric vehicles (EV). Composite materials offer high specific modulus and specific strength, which makes them appealing for these light weighting efforts. Sheet molding compounds (SMC) are particularly interesting from an automotive perspective because of the relatively low cost and high volume of producing SMC parts. Traditionally, composite materials for automotive application are glass fiber reinforced because of the attractive price - performance ratio, but basalt fibers are a cost and recycling competitive reinforcement alternative in this market. The aim of this project was to examine the feasibility of utilizing basalt fiber for automotive applications. More specifically, an effort was made to examine different fiber sizings on basalt fiber combined with vinyl-ester (VE) resin, and their performance as part of an SMC process. In addition to offering vehicle lightweighting with fiber reinforced polymer composites, basalt fiber is a fully recyclable material and thus supports the IACMI technical goal of: Demonstrate that the technology is capable at a sufficient scale for >80% recyclability or reuse of fiber reinforced polymer composites in five years into useful components with projected cost and quality at commercial scale competitive with virgin materials on a pathway to 95% recyclability or reuse starting in ten years. Three different fiber sizings were applied to a continuous roving of basalt fiber and compared to a traditional Electrical/Chemical Resistance (E-CR) glass fiber that is typically used in these types of applications. Fiber tows were examined for Loss on Ignition percentage (LOI%), Tex, and tow strength. Some sizings clearly outperformed others, and the ability to process these fibers on a pilot scale SMC line was demonstrated. A test plan for the manufacturing and mechanical testing of SMC panels was developed. This work continues outside the time frame allocated for this project. When this work is completed, it will be added to this report and posted as Appendix C. Glass fiber reinforced SMC materials have already proven feasible as a light weighting method for traditionally steel parts like the Volkswagen (VW) Atlas lift-gate (Figure 1); this project team is seeking the feasibility of basalt fiber as a drop-in replacement for glass fiber reinforced SMC. Sizing development for basalt fibers has proven that the mechanical properties are better than E-glass and closer to S-glass, which makes it an interesting material for SMC applications. Better mechanical properties translate to less material needed to achieve load case requirement for target applications. The business case has already been demonstrated for 100,000 parts per year of glass fiber reinforced SMC Atlas lift-gates compared to traditional steel manufacturing processes. Reduced overhead and assembly costs are offset by glass fiber SMC higher cost per kg beyond 100,000 parts per year, which is still a relatively low volume for the automotive industry. For basalt fiber reinforced SMC to become feasible for automotive applications, the price-performance ratio has to be precisely determined. Based on the mechanical performance it is possible to establish a range of applications and technical solutions in which the potential of basalt SMC can be utilized, while the price of the material can be used to compile the business case for such applications. Based on these business cases and the sustainability indicators, glass fiber reinforcement (or other) materials can be directly substituted. Volkswagen’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions cannot be understated. Basalt fiber shows promise of reducing the carbon footprint in SMC materials, especially if sizing optimizations can be made with thermoplastic based SMC. To fully realize the value of basalt fiber reinforced materials, a lifecycle cost analysis should be performed on basalt’s production and recycling, and then compared against E-glass. From this assessment, a true judgement can be made on the commercialization potential of this material. Figure 1. Example of Fiber Reinforced Polymer Composite Liftgate As a conclusion, we can state that Mafic basalt fiber is not a direct replacement for E-glass or E-CR glass based on price, but should be considered a technical solution when E-glass does not provide adequate performance in a composite design and S-glass, aramid and carbon fibers are too costly. Mafic basalt fiber can be placed on the high-performance fiber spectrum next to S-glass for performance but at one third the price. It should be considered for more technically challenging structural designs wherein the performance can demonstrate 20-25% performance enhancement over E-glass to elicit more strength or a weight reduction. Both Michelman and Mafic produce thermoplastic sizings which, in combination with Nylon and polypropylene resin and fibers, can further advance high speed composite implementations while maintaining an eco-friendly manufacturing process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Oxidation Behavior of Candidate NiCr Alloys for Engine Exhaust Valves: Part I—Effect of Minor Alloying Elements

Oxidation-induced degradation of structural materials employed as exhaust valves within internal combustion engines (ICEs) will be a relevant life-limiting mechanism, in addition to creep and mechanical fatigue, due to ever-increasing severity of operating temperatures and pressures. Ni–Cr-based alloys, which form external chromia-based scales at the relevant operating temperatures are being considered as suitable candidate materials. Thermal cycling of these alloys in water vapor-containing atmospheres, such as those present during hydrocarbon fuel combustion within ICEs, can considerably influence their oxidation behavior. Here, the role of typical alloying additions such as Mn, Si, Al and Ti on the cyclic oxidation behavior of model NiCr–X (X = Mn,Si,Al,Ti) alloys exposed in dry air and air + 10% H 2 O at 800°C and 950°C was investigated. Combined additions of Mn and Si reduced scaling rates compared to binary Ni–22Cr alloys. The presence of water vapor possibly suppressed formation of NiMnCr spinel and thereby the Cr depletion in the alloy. Combined Al and Ti additions mainly resulted in accelerated oxidation kinetics due to the Ti doping of chromia scales. More porous external scales were observed in water vapor leading to a much deeper depth of nitridation in the Ni–22Cr–Al–Ti alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Performance analysis of hybrid power configurations: Impact on primary energy intensity, carbon dioxide emissions, and life cycle costs

In this work, utilization of Natural gas and Hydrogen to support current and future building energy needs to offset the total electric demand while improving the grid resiliency and energy efficiency was investigated. Demand side energy management will play an important role in efficiently managing the available energy resources. Performance assessment of different power generation and energy management configurations is presented in this paper. Development of solutions in addressing grid resiliency by providing the ability to design suitable configurations for meeting individual building energy needs is discussed. Primary movers (PM) such as internal combustion engines (ICE) and fuel cells (FC) along with small scale auxiliary renewable energy source such as photovoltaics (PV) were considered. Key attributes of total carbon foot-print, life cycle costs including capital and operational expenditure, electric grid offset or peak shaving capability, thermal energy availability and its further potential to offset total electric demand, and primary energy intensity are analyzed and discussed in detail.

08 HYDROGEN↗

2D CFD of lean premixed hydrogen–air flame quenching under locomotive engine conditions

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is a promising fuel for reducing emissions in heavy-duty internal combustion engines (ICEs), but its low quenching distance increases the risk of flame propagation into narrow crevice regions, such as piston-liner gaps. This work uses detailed CFD simulations with finite-rate chemistry to investigate premixed H 2 –air flame quenching in a two-dimensional (2D) region consistent with the piston-liner gap of a diesel ICE. Model accuracy was assessed by comparison with experimentally measured quenching distances in an annular stepwise diverging tube (ASDT). A parametric study was conducted to assess the influence of crevice width (0.05–1.18 mm), pressure (50–150 bar), unburned gas temperature (431–573 K), and equivalence ratio ( Φ= 0.3–0.6). Results show that the critical Péclet number for flame survival is no greater than 3.25, consistent with prior literature, even under ultra-lean and high-pressure conditions (Φ ≤ 0.3, > 50 bar). Additionally, flames with Péclet numbers exceeding 6.15 exhibited front wrinkling, suggesting the onset of velocity-driven instabilities and enhanced flame robustness. These findings help define thresholds for flame quenching in confined geometries and support the safe design of H 2 fueled ICEs.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Platinum Group Metals Global Economics Market Supply

Due to uncertainty in the transition away from internal combustion engines (and more importantly, the catalytic convertors these automobiles use), there is large uncertainty in the future of the PGM market. However, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers could be a new demand application for PGMs. Therefore, a model was developed which utilizes the system dynamics approach to predict supply and prices for specific demand scenarios. Results indicated that the total PGM market value sees a decline in the late 2020s due to changing automotive application demand. Market decline was due to decreasing internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle demand resulting in less PGMs supplied for automotive applications. Compounding market decline was an increase in secondary supply of PGMs as more ICE automotives reach their EOL pushing PGM prices down as secondary supply increases while demand simultaneously decreases. Following the market decline, an increase in market value in the early 2030s was observed due to deployment of hydrogen fuel cell technologies and subsequent increase in PGM demand

Kulkarni, Sameer (0000000227573592)↗