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When do different scenarios of projected electricity demand start to meaningfully diverge?

Resource adequacy studies look at balancing electricity supply and demand on 10- to 15-year time horizons while asset investment planning typically evaluates returns on 20- to 40-year time horizons. Projections of electricity demand are factored into the decision-making in both cases. Climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic changes are key uncertainties known to influence electricity demands, but their relative importance for demands over the next 10-40 years is unclear. The power sector would benefit from a better understanding of the need to characterize these uncertainties for resource adequacy and investment planning. In this study, we quantify when projected United States (U.S.) electricity demands start to meaningfully diverge in response to a range of climate, energy policy, and socioeconomic drivers. Here we use a wide yet plausible range of 21st century scenarios for the U.S. The projections span two population/economic growth scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5) and two climate/energy policy scenarios, one including climate mitigation policies and one without (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). Each climate/energy policy scenario has two warming levels to reflect a range of climate model uncertainty. We show that the socioeconomic scenario matters almost immediately – within the next 10 years, the climate/policy scenario matters within 25-30 years, and the climate model uncertainty matters only after 50+ years. This work can inform the power sector working to integrate climate change uncertainties into their decision-making.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage

State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program, Model Year 2023 Annual Report

The Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) was enacted in part to reduce the nation's dependence on imported petroleum. Provisions of EPAct require certain fleets to acquire alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). The U.S. Department of Energy administers these requirements through its State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program, Federal Fleet Requirements, and Alternative Fuel Designation Authority. This report summarizes activities under the program during model year 2023.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

EV-ELM (Electric Vehicle Policies with the Energy Language Model) [SWR-25-156]

Electric Vehicle Policies with the Energy Language Model (EV-ELM) leverages previous work using Large Language Models (LLMs) to find, download, and parse policy information related to energy infrastructure. In this application, we use LLMs to find policy documents related to the permitting and installation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This software contains the code to find, download, and parse these documents, while a related data record in the Open Energy Data Initiative (OEDI) will include the resulting output dataset that can be used for downstream analysis. The EV-ELM repository contains code for the EV-ELM project, which focuses on retrieving and processing EV permitting processes using large language models. The project is composed of two pipelines: (1) a web scraping pipeline for discovering and downloading EV permitting documents, and (2) a document parsing and extraction pipeline that processes the downloaded files to produce structured data. The web scraping pipeline is designed to extract relevant information from various websites, while the document parsing pipeline processes and analyzes the extracted documents to derive meaningful insights. Both pipelines depend on the NLR elm repository, which provides essential tools and functionalities for handling and processing the data. The web scraping pipeline is a modified version of the ordinance_gpt example within the elm repository. It has been adapted to fit the specific requirements of the EV-ELM project, ensuring that it effectively captures and processes the necessary information related to EV permitting.

Olson, Reid [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N

Requesting an Exemption from Standard Compliance: EPAct State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program Guidance Document

The U.S. Department of Energy established the Alternative Fuel Transportation Program (Program) and associated regulatory requirements pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992. The Program, otherwise known as the State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program, requires covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets operating under Standard Compliance to acquire alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) as a specific percentage of their annual non-excluded light-duty vehicle acquisitions. The opportunity for covered fleets operating under Standard Compliance to request exemptions from their AFV-acquisition requirements serves as administrative relief in the unlikely event a fleet is unable to satisfy its requirements through the normally available compliance alternatives. These alternatives include the acquisition of light-duty AFVs, the acquisition of other, creditable vehicles (e.g., gasoline-fueled hybrid electric vehicles), making certain investments, the purchase of biodiesel for use in medium- or heavy-duty vehicles to the maximum extent allowed, and purchasing or trading for banked AFV credits. This document addresses requests for exemptions from the AFV-acquisition requirements to help covered fleets better understand: How to file a request for an exemption, information and documentation DOE needs to process an exemption request, and important policies relevant for filing exemption requests.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC

Submitting a Standard Compliance Annual Report: EPAct State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program User Guide

State government and alternative fuel provider fleets covered under the State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program (Program) established pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) may use the Compliance Reporting Tool to track and report on several compliance activities. These activities include, but are not limited to, completing Standard Compliance annual reports, Alternative Compliance notices of intent, and exemption requests. Covered fleets can access the Compliance Tool through the Program's website at https://epact.energy.gov/users/sign_in. Covered fleet points of contact should bookmark the Compliance Reporting Tool for future access. This user guide addresses how to complete and submit Standard Compliance annual reports, including getting started with reporting, submitting annual reports, submitting exemption requests, and viewing annual reports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Gas Turbine Energy Conversion Systems for Lunar and Planetary Nuclear Power Plants Including Ground Based Applications Using LiFTR "Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor" Technology

The background and motivation for this presentation is the Advanced Nuclear Power named in Energy Policy Act of 2005 (Gen IV Nuclear Systems Initiative), Thorium Energy Independence & Security Act of 2008 (S.3680), Gen IV Candidate Advanced Nuclear Power Plants, and high temperature gas turbine power plants offer large thermal efficiency improvement over steam plants.

Juhasz, Albert J.

From Silos to Synergy: Identifying a Roadmap for Cross-Sector Research to Accelerate the Clean Energy Transition

The U.S. Department of Energy's blueprints for the transportation, buildings, and electricity sectors call for substantial reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050. These plans focus on zero-emission vehicles, investments in transit, energy-efficient buildings, and the widespread adoption and deployment of renewable energy technologies like solar photovoltaics (PV), energy storage and energy-efficient appliances. However, these sectors are often studied and modeled in isolation, overlooking how household decisions to adopt clean technologies in one sector influence others. This study, led by an interdisciplinary team at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), explores opportunities for cross-sector collaboration to drive more effective and equitable decarbonization. Through discussions with 22 NREL researchers across transportation, building, solar, and grid sectors, the study highlights the need for integrated tools and models that capture interactions between these sectors. Key insights include the need for data standardization and interoperability to enable cross-sector analysis and decision-making. Strengthening utility partnerships is also critical to align energy policies with decarbonization goals and manage the increased demand for renewable energy. The study also emphasizes the importance of equity in the clean energy transition, calling for targeted incentives and support to ensure that low-income and underserved communities benefit from clean technologies like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances. To support these efforts, innovative funding mechanisms must be expanded to facilitate interdisciplinary research, such as city-specific decarbonization plans and federal projects like DOE"s Standard Scenarios. By encouraging collaboration and integrating cross-sector insights, this study aims to provide a roadmap to accelerate the clean energy transition and ensure it is both sustainable and inclusive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Where there is a wind, there is a way

A shift in USA energy policy from oil or natural gases to thermonuclear fission and solar energy is predicted. A massive diversified energy research and development effort to productively harness the energy in the winds is outlined to develop commercially feasible wind energy conversion systems - considered a form of solar energy - in the near future.

Mosher, C. A.

Product Innovation to Increase Low-to-Moderate-Income Customers' Adoption of Community Solar PV

This study aims to comprehensively analyze community solar project preferences for consumers and suppliers by conducting three distinct analyses. First we analyze the predictors of community solar contract adoption to understand how individual priorities affect the probability of adoption. Using an original data set of survey responses from potential community solar customers, we analyzed the predictors of contract adoption by employing a weighted logit model. We find that individuals who were previously familiar with community solar projects were significantly more likely to adopt than those who were not familiar. Secondly, a survey of community solar developers and financiers identified industry perceived barriers to community solar access and inclusion. Thirdly, we gathered payment performance information from community solar initiatives to measure how financial risks are perceived and how they interact with customer demographics. Our study is beneficial to the public by providing insights into the drivers and barriers of community solar adoption and sheds light on the importance of understanding individual priorities in designing effective community solar policies. The community solar industry has changed significantly since the beginning of this project. The industry continues to grow at a rapid rate, with an additional 7 gigawatts expected to come online between 2022 and 2027. With federal pressure to meet climate goals, as the harms of climate change continue to impact everybody, legislators are looking to community solar as a method to achieving their states energy policy goals. These new policies that push for low-to-moderate inclusion, coupled with the increase in community solar capacity illustrate a new era for the community solar industry. A number of policies have arisen in the last few months that push for more inclusive practices including the groundbreaking Solar for All program run by the EPA. The research created a “best practice” contract that can then be used, in conjunction with the manuscript and validated study, to pitch the industry on a more inclusive community solar product.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Diversification of energy sources

The concept of energy source diversification was introduced as a substitution conservation action. The current status and philosophy behind a diversification program is presented in the context of a national energy policy. Advantages, disadvantages (constraints), and methods of implementation for diversification are discussed. The energy source systems for diversification are listed and an example impact assessment is outlined which deals with the water requirements of the specific energy systems.

Source record

40th Eastern Regional Photosynthesis Conference

Photosynthesis has shaped global biochemistry and geochemistry in its production of almost all atmospheric oxygen, and almost every electron that supports the processes of life on Earth was extracted from water by the light-dependent reactions, many of which were then used to fix carbon in the dark reactions. To humans, that fixed carbon is the originator of all fossil fuels and a critical step in conversion of solar photons to human-usable energy. The Eastern Regional Photosynthesis Conference (ERPC) serves as a forum for advancement of science in this field. As a regional-level conference, it specializes in providing developmental opportunities for early-career researchers from undergraduates to pre-tenure professors, as well as broadening the field in terms of participating scholars and research approaches to produce new interdisciplinary collaborations. Funding from the Department of Energy is used to mitigate registration and attendance costs for junior (non-PI) researchers. The ERPC is one of the three regional conferences in the field of photosynthesis research in the United States, alongside the Western Photosynthesis Conference (currently in California) and the Midwestern Photosynthesis Conference (Turkey Run, Indiana). A longstanding incubator for scientific discourse, discovery, and collaborations, this conference has spawned many collaborations which led to Department of Energy-funded projects and brought two full generations of scientists into the field. In 2023 the landmark 40th such conference was held at the Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory in Massachusetts. The conference was held April 14th-16th, 2023. The majority of the total attendees are traditionally undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral researchers, whose scientific development greatly benefits from conferences like these. Almost all talks besides the ones given by invited speakers were given by young scientists who benefited from this award. Many posters presented at this conference were also the work of junior scientists. This conference is many young scientists' first exposure to the photosynthesis research community and its primary goal is to provide a positive atmosphere for those attendees, as exemplified by the three poster sessions and dedicated interactions between senior and junior scientists. Additionally, this was the first year of a successful equitable outreach and speaker recruitment plan to provide fair representation at the conference in line with Department of Energy policies and mission. The central focus of the ERPC is the understanding of energy flow from photons to usable chemical products in both natural and artificial photosynthesis. We support the DOE-BES aim of understanding of the biochemical/biophysical processes of photosynthesis to inform new technology development and field applications. This year’s theme, “Photosynthesis Across Scales,” reflected the scope of work being done from the individual exciton to the crop scale. This research encompasses applied biology, chemistry, physics, and materials engineering. The aim of this conference is to present new discoveries, techniques, and questions which can be sourced from any of these disciplines and provide an audience which is broadly qualified to use or respond to these developments.

08 HYDROGEN

Evaluating GHG Mitigation Potential from ESPC Projects [Slides]

This report explores the impact of implemented ESPC projects on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the U.S. buildings sector, and the associated projected annual cost savings and marginal abatement costs. It is important to investigate the role that energy retrofits can play in achieving GHG emission reduction targets given the use of ESPC by public agencies to reduce emissions from energy use in addition to the historical use of ESPC to to achieve cost/energy savings and ancillary benefits (e.g., addressing deferred maintenance, aging infrastructure, etc.). The analysis draws from LBNL’s eProject Builder (ePB) database, which contains approximately 3,000 energy retrofit projects implemented by energy service companies (ESCOs), mostly energy savings performance contract (ESPC) projects. This is the first report to model GHG emission reductions from ongoing ESPC projects in the U.S public sector based on ePB project data. It is intended for policymakers, federal, state and local government officials and other potential ESPC customers, the ESCO industry, researchers, and other energy policy professionals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Human Subjects in Energy Technology and Policy Research (Symposium Report)

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has a unique and wide-ranging research portfolio. One focus of the department’s research mission is to develop and promote the adoption of technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and result in renewable and clean energy for the country. This research encompasses a surprisingly diverse array of studies, many of which involve the inclusion of human participants that go beyond traditional biomedical investigations. For example, individuals play an important role in DOE research on clean energy sources, development and testing of new energy-efficient technologies, and partnerships with local communities for equitable climate solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Guidance on EPAct section 707 Emergency Repair and Restoration Vehicle Exclusions: EPAct State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program Guidance Document

Section 707 of the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct 2005) amended section 301(9)(E) of EPAct 1992 by adding to the list of vehicles excluded from the definition of "fleet" a new subcategory of emergency motor vehicles, i.e., "vehicles directly used in the emergency repair of transmission lines and in the restoration of electricity service following power outages, as determined by the Secretary." Like other excluded vehicles, these light-duty vehicles (LDVs) do not count (1) when determining whether a fleet is covered under the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleet Program (Program), and (2) for fleets that are covered under the Program, when calculating annual alternative fuel vehicle (AFV)-acquisition requirements. If AFV models of excluded vehicles are acquired, however, a fleet may count them toward their acquisition requirement by including them in the calculation of the number of AFVs acquired. Exclusion Process.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC

Panel discussions: Industrial support sector requirements

Industrial support was the subject of a panel discussion on solar energy technology. Members of various energy-related businesses and agencies were present. Topics cofered include: (1) solar collectors; (2) solar energy policy; (3) government/industry relations; and (4) economic factors which influence the use of solar energy.

Washom, B.