More than Drought: Precipitation Variance, Excessive Wetness, Pathogens and the Future of the Western Edge of the Eastern Deciduous Forest
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Adaptive management on cattle ranches requires rangeland managers to decide the location and duration of the cattle grazing activity across different pastures. Biodiversity, forage availability, and cattle health are all affected by rangeland management. Virtual fencing is a tool that rangeland managers can use to potentially increase biodiversity and improve ranching operations. NASA DEVELOP and Colorado State University (CSU) collaborated with the Nature Conservancy (TNC), and Red Top Ranch to demonstrate the efficacy of virtual fencing. We sought to identify annual and monthly biomass patterns on the ranch through the creation of monthly max biomass productivity maps. We utilized a dataset from the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) to calculate biomass on the ranch. To validate our remotely-sensed results, we compared model-predicted biomass values to field-collected biomass clipping data and an additional biomass dataset from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP). We used satellite imagery from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 –OLI-2, and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) for 2021 and 2022. We found that there was heterogeneity in biomass across the ranch, with higher biomass on the western side. The highest peak of biomass was in the summer months, with a smaller peak in mid-September. The ARS biomass dataset had a significant relationship with RAP for 2021. ARS biomass did not have a significant relationship with the biomass field data collected in 2022. The results of our study are aimed to support rotation management, ranch production, biodiversity, and conservation management.
Ozone pollution is one of the most severe air quality issues in China that poses a serious threat to human health and ecosystems. During 2019–2021, the maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations in eastern China (110–122.5°E, 26–42°N) and the rest of China (ROC) show different decreasing patterns, with ozone concentrations in eastern China decreasing by 14.9 μg/m 3 , which is much larger than 4.8 μg/m 3 in ROC. Here, based on two independent methods, the atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) simulations and the machine learning (ML) model (LightGBM) predictions, the reasons for the differences in ozone changes between eastern China and ROC during the warm season (April to September) are investigated. According to the GEOS-Chem (LightGBM) results, changes in the meteorological conditions contributed to an ozone decrease by 7.3 (6.8) μg/m 3 in eastern China due to decreased chemical production and an ozone decrease by 6.8 (7.0) μg/m 3 in ROC attributed to the weakened horizontal and vertical advection. With the influence of meteorological factors excluded, the observations show that changes in anthropogenic emissions resulted in an ozone decrease by 7.6 (8.1) μg/m 3 in eastern China and an ozone increase by 2.0 (2.2) μg/m 3 in ROC, which is primarily induced by the changes in NO x emissions. The surface measurements and satellite retrievals also indicate that the reduction in NO x emissions in ROC is less efficient than that in the more developed eastern China, leading to contrasting changes in ozone concentrations between eastern China and ROC during 2019–2021. In conclusion, our results highlight the critical need to reduce ozone precursor emissions in the rest regions of China apart from eastern China.
Dust in snow on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) could reduce the visible snow albedo by changing surface optical properties and removing the snow cover through increased snowmelt, which leads to a significant positive radiative forcing and remarkably alters the regional energy balance and the eastern Asian climate system. This work extends our previous investigation in dust–radiation interactions to investigate the dust-in-snow radiative forcing (SRF) and its feedbacks on the regional climate and the dust cycle over eastern Asia through the use of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 with a Bulk Aerosol Model parameterizations of the dust size distribution (CAM4-BAM). Our results show that SRF increases the eastern Asian dust emissions significantly by 13.7% in the spring, countering a 7.6% decrease in the regional emissions by the dust direct radiative forcing (DRF). SRF also remarkably affects the whole dust cycle, including transport and deposition of dust aerosols over eastern Asia. The simulations indicate an increase in dust emissions of 5.1%, due to the combined effect of DRF and SRF. Further analysis reveals that these results are mainly due to the regional climatic feedbacks induced by SRF over eastern Asia. By reducing the snow albedo over the TP, the dust in snow mainly warms the TP and influences its thermal effects by increasing the surface sensible and latent heat flux, which in turn increases the aridity and westerly winds over northwestern China and affects the regional dust cycle. Additionally, the dust in snow also accelerates the snow-melting process, reduces the snow cover and then expands the eastern Asian dust source region, which results in increasing the regional dust emissions. Hence, a significant feature of SRF on the TP is the creation of a positive feedback loop that affects the dust cycle over eastern Asia.
Despite rising global-mean temperatures, large parts of the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean have cooled during the satellite era. These regions may be linked by teleconnections, with Southern Ocean cooling contributing to tropical eastern Pacific cooling. We demonstrate that, on average, state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) underestimate the magnitude of interaction between the Southern Ocean and tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the teleconnection is shown to be mediated by the magnitude of the positive cloud–sea surface temperature (SST) feedback in the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean and the strength of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback. We link excessive precipitation in the tropical Pacific south of the equator to the strength of the Southern Ocean–eastern Pacific teleconnection. This model bias, known as the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), is shown to be related to erroneous convection south of the equator, weakened cross-equatorial trade winds, and unfavorable meteorological conditions for marine boundary layer subtropical clouds. We postulate there is a two-way interaction, in which a double-ITCZ occurs with weaker cloud–SST and WES feedbacks, which in turn impact local SSTs and amplify the double-ITCZ. Models with a stronger Southern Ocean to tropical Pacific teleconnection tend to exhibit more multidecadal variability in the Walker circulation, ITCZ, and west–east equatorial SST gradient, as well as greater delayed warming in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean resulting from delayed Southern Ocean warming under greenhouse gas forcing. These results provide insight into why ESMs struggle to replicate observed tropical Pacific temperature trend patterns and point to ITCZ location as a key target for improvement in future model development.
Climate change is restructuring forests of the United States, although the details of this restructuring are currently uncertain. Rising temperatures of 2 to 8oC and associated changes in soil moisture will shift the competitive balance between species that compete for light and water, and so change their abilities to produce seed, germinate, grow, and survive. We have used large-scale experiments to determine the effects of warming on the most sensitive stage of species distributions, i.e., recruitment, in mixed deciduous forests in southern New England and in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. Two questions organized our research: (1) Might temperate tree species near the “warm” end of their range in the eastern United States decline in abundance during the coming century due to projected warming? and (2) Might trees near the “cool” end of their range in the eastern United States increase in abundance, or extend their range, during the coming 100 years because of projected warming? To explore these questions, we exposed seedlings to air and soil warming experiments in two eastern deciduous forest sites; one at the Harvard Forest (HF) in central Massachusetts, and the other at the Duke Forest (DF) in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. We focused on tree species common to both Harvard and Duke Forests (such as red, black, and white oaks), those near northern range limits (black oak, flowing dogwood, tulip poplar), and those near southern range limits (yellow birch, sugar maple, Virginia pine). At each site, we planted seeds and seedlings in common gardens established in temperature-controlled, open-top chambers. The experimental design was replicated and fully factorial and involved three temperature regimes (ambient, +3oC and +5oC) and two light regimes (closed forest canopy (low light) and gap conditions (high light)). Measured variables included Winter/Spring responses to temperature and mid-Summer responses to low soil moisture. This research will advance our understanding of how the abundances and geographic distributions of several important eastern tree species near the cool and warm ends of their ranges will change during the century because of projected warming. Warming-induced changes in eastern tree abundances and distributions have the potential to affect both the quality and quantity of goods and services provided by eastern forests, and will therefore be of importance to society.
Tectonic deformation is cited as the cause for the complex morphology and topography of Eastern Ishtar Terra. A number of models proposed to account for this deformation are reviewed, and their predictions for the geology of Fortuna Tessera are examined. The detailed geology, topography, and structural fabric of Eastern Ishtar are reviewed, and these observations are compared to the predictions of the existing models for the formation and evolution of Fortuna Tessera. On the basis of the analysis, a number of conclusions are drawn regarding the evolution of Eastern Ishtar Terra. These include the recognition of primary morphological and topographical patterns which allow Eastern Ishtar Terra to be divided into four major physiographic regions named Maxwell Montes, Eastern Fortuna Tessera, Central Fortuna Tessera, and Northern Fortuna Tessera. A model is suggested that accounts for the morphology and high topography of Eastern Ishtar Terra.
This report describes the work conducted in support of the Eastern Interconnection States’ Planning Council (EISPC) Energy Zones Study and the development of the Energy Zones Mapping Tool performed by a team of experts from three National Laboratories. The multi-laboratory effort was led by Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne), in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). In June 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory published Funding Opportunity Announcement FOA-0000068, which invited applications for interconnection-level analysis and planning. In December 2009, the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) and the EISPC were selected as two award recipients for the Eastern Interconnection. Subsequently, in 2010, DOE issued Research Call RC-BM-2010 to DOE’s Federal Laboratories to provide research support and assistance to FOA-0000068 awardees on a variety of key subjects. Argonne was selected as the lead laboratory to provide support to EISPC in developing a methodology and a mapping tool for identifying potential clean energy zones in the Eastern Interconnection. In developing the EISPC Energy Zones Mapping Tool (EZ Mapping Tool), Argonne, NREL, and ORNL closely collaborated with the EISPC Energy Zones Work Group which coordinated the work on the Energy Zones Study. The main product of the Energy Zones Study is the EZ Mapping Tool, which is a web-based decision support system that allows users to locate areas with high suitability for clean power generation in the U.S. portion of the Eastern Interconnection. The mapping tool includes 9 clean (low- or no-carbon) energy resource categories and 29 types of clean energy technologies. The EZ Mapping Tool contains an extensive geographic information system database and allows the user to apply a flexible modeling approach for the identification and analysis of potential energy zones and is publicly available at http://eispctools.anl.gov. In addition to enabling EISPC members and other stakeholders to identify areas with a high concentration of clean energy resources that could provide significant power generation in the future, another objective of the study was to promote open and transparent collaboration among state-level energy planning and regulatory agencies and to foster consistent and coordinated direction for regional and interconnection-level electricity analyses and planning. Funding for the project was provided by DOE’s Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (DOE/OE) under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Page
Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution, which has adverse impacts on hundreds of millions of people across China1–4. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with abnormal meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds5–9. Using a global climate model and a chemical transport model, we show that variations in dust emissions decrease the wintertime land-sea surface air temperature difference between eastern China and the South China Sea and weaken winds below the lowest 10th percentile of wind speed by 0.06 m s-1. Here, the weakened winds enhance stagnation and account for 13% of the increases in PM2.5 aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime PM2.5 concentrations, with important implications that should be considered in air quality studies.
The waters of the Eastern Mediterranean are characterized by unique physical and chemical properties within separate water masses occupying different depths. Distinct water masses are present throughout the oceans, which drive thermohaline circulation. These water masses may contain specific microbial assemblages. The goal of this study was to examine the effect of physical and geological phenomena on the microbial community of the Eastern Mediterranean water column. Chemical measurements were combined with phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and high-throughput 16S rRNA sequencing to characterize the microbial community in the water column at five sites. We demonstrate that the chemistry and microbial community of the water column were stratified into three distinct water masses. The salinity and nutrient concentrations vary between these water masses. Nutrient concentrations increased with depth, and salinity was highest in the intermediate water mass. Our PLFA analysis indicated different lipid classes were abundant in each water mass, suggesting that distinct groups of microbes inhabit these water masses. 16S rRNA gene sequencing confirmed the presence of distinct microbial communities in each water mass. Taxa involved in autotrophic nitrogen cycling were enriched in the intermediate water mass suggesting that microbes in this water mass may be important to the nitrogen cycle of the Eastern Mediterranean. The Eastern Mediterranean also contains numerous active hydrocarbon seeps. We sampled above the North Alex Mud Volcano, in order to test the effect of these geological features on the microbial community in the adjacent water column. The community in the waters overlaying the mud volcano was distinct from other communities collected at similar depths and was enriched in known hydrocarbon degrading taxa. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that physical phenomena such stratification as well as geological phenomena such as mud volcanoes strongly affect microbial community structure in the Eastern Mediterranean water column.
Eastern Box Turtle (Terrapene carolina) populations have declined drastically since 1970 because of continued destruction and fragmentation of their habitat. Although they are known to shift their home ranges because of environmental degradation, it is unknown how solar arrays impact Eastern Box Turtles. From 2011–2018, we collected data on Eastern Box Turtle movement and occupancy in a 79-ha solar farm. The solar farm is divided into six fenced areas, each containing wildlife openings for movement of terrestrial fauna every 23 m around the fenced solar arrays. For this work, we hypothesized that the solar arrays changed the home range sizes of turtles that interacted with the field. We fitted 41 Eastern Box Turtles with radio transmitters and tracked their locations twice per week in June–August from 2011–2018. Seventeen turtles had home ranges that overlapped with the solar arrays whereas 24 turtles had home ranges that never interacted with the solar arrays. We calculated home range sizes and tested for differences between overlapping and nonoverlapping groups. We further considered if the number of observations within the solar farm impacted home range size and displacement. We found that Eastern Box Turtles that used the solar farm exhibited 55–83% larger home ranges on average than turtles in natural habitats, but there was no significant association of home range size with the amount of time observed within the solar farm. Finally, we discuss strategies to mitigate negative impacts of solar farm development on turtles.
How aerosols affect the weather and climate system has received increasing attention. This study finds a significant negative correlation between March–May eastern China aerosol optical depth (AOD) and July–November western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) frequency during 2003–2020. This time period spans when several aerosol reanalyses are available and both Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer AOD retrievals are assimilated therein. Composite analyses and budget analyses of dynamical genesis potential indices indicate the importance of large-scale environmental factors, especially vertical velocity and vertical wind shear, associated with changes in AOD that in turn modulate changes in WNP TC frequency. Increased eastern China AOD may facilitate negative Pacific meridional mode development via modulation of the westerly jet, which then forces an anticyclonic circulation over the WNP basin. Increased AOD can also directly decrease the inter-hemispheric temperature differential and increases the intra-hemispheric temperature differential between the equator and the mid-latitudes, thus weakening ascending motion and enhancing vertical wind shear over the WNP, especially the southeastern portion of the basin. Further, all of these large-scale environment changes induced by increased eastern China AOD tend to suppress WNP TCs. This study highlights the potential influence of eastern China aerosol loadings on WNP TCs, thus improving our understanding of TC climate variability over the WNP.
Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known to have different modes of expression, characterized by different dynamics and spatial anomalies patterns: the Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) El Niño. The main region of influence of the former is located in the Eastern Pacific, while CP events have a stronger signature of ocean/climate anomalies in the Central West Pacific. This leads to distinctive oceanic and atmospheric signatures that likely have different influences on tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Eastern Pacific, the second most active region in the world. In this study we investigate the respective role of oceanic and atmospheric conditions on TC formation and intensification in the Eastern Pacific associated with these two flavors of ENSO. We find that the oceanic control, through meridional redistribution of subsurface heat, is the main driver of TC activity during the hurricane season following EP events. In contrast, atmospheric conditions tend to be destructive to TC intensification after those events. The altered atmospheric circulation, in particular the reduction of vertical wind shear and the increase in relative humidity, tends to be more influential in controlling TC activity post CP events. However, unlike for subsurface heat, these changes in atmospheric conditions are not statistically distinct between these two ENSO flavors—although they are consistent across all atmospheric data sets tested. Overall, unlike after EP El Niño events, the hurricane season activity following a CP event is not significantly different from neutral or even La Niña years.
Abstract Several species from the genusCallinectesare economically important, yet the number of species and their geographic distributions remain unclear. Recently, one of the American species,Callinectes larvatus, was synonymized with one of the African species,C. marginatus, makingC. marginatusthe only species of the genus regarded to be amphi-Atlantic in distribution. However, there was no formal taxonomic study to support this taxonomic change, which was in contradiction to earlier studies that had provided morphological characters to support the taxonomic separation of the eastern Atlantic species from those of western Atlantic distribution.Callinectes maracaiboensishas also been questionably resurrected. Here we present a molecular based analysis for all species ofCallinectes, using the two common mitochondrial genes 16S and 12S. Our molecular data support the presence of three eastern Atlantic, three eastern Pacific, and nine western Atlantic species. Historically, it appears that the separation of Africa and South America with the opening of the Atlantic basin gave rise to sister species distributed on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean. In a second isolation event, the emergence of the Panamanian isthmus resulted in pairs of geminate species distributed in eastern Pacific and western Atlantic waters.
Abstract The eastern Pacific double-ITCZ bias has long been attributed to the warm bias of SST in the southeastern Pacific and associated local air–sea interaction. In this study, we conducted two simulations using the NCAR CESM1.2.1 to demonstrate that significant double-ITCZ bias can still form in the eastern Pacific through air–sea coupled feedback even when there is cold SST bias in the southeastern Pacific, indicating that other nonlocal culprits and mechanisms should be responsible for the double-ITCZ bias in the eastern Pacific. Further analyses show that the oversimulated convection in the northern ITCZ region and Central America in boreal winter may result in biases in the surface wind fields in the tropical northeastern Pacific in the atmospheric model, which favor the cooling of the ocean mixed layer through enhancement of latent heat flux and Ekman upwelling. These biases are passed into the ocean model in coupled simulations and result in a severe cold bias of SST in the northern ITCZ region. The overly cold SST bias persists in the subsequent spring, leading to the suppression of convection in the northern ITCZ region. The enhanced low-level cross-equatorial northerly wind strengthens the wind convergence south of the equator and transports abundant water vapor to the convergence zone, strengthening the southern ITCZ convection. All these processes lead to the disappearance of the northern ITCZ and the enhancement of the southern ITCZ in boreal spring, forming a seasonally alternating double-ITCZ bias. This study suggests that convection biases in the northern ITCZ region and Central America in boreal winter may be a culprit for the double-ITCZ bias in the eastern Pacific.
Aerosol pH governs many important atmospheric processes that occur in the marine boundary layer, including regulating halogen and sulfur chemistries, and nutrient fertilization of surface ocean waters. In this study, we investigated the acidity of PM1 over the eastern North Atlantic during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) aircraft campaign. The ISORROPIA-II thermodynamic model was used to predict PM1 pH and water. We first investigated the sensitivities of PM1 pH and water predictions to gas-phase NH3 and HNO3 concentrations. Our sensitivity analysis indicated that even though NH3 and HNO3 were present at very low concentrations in the eastern North Atlantic during the campaign, PM1 pH calculations can still be sensitive to NH3 concentrations. Specifically, NH3 was needed to constrain the pH of populations of PM1 that had low mass concentrations of NH4+ and non-volatile cations (NVCs). We next assumed that gas-phase NH3 and HNO3 concentrations during the campaign were 0.15 and 0.09 µg m−3, respectively, based on previous measurements conducted in the eastern North Atlantic. Using the assumption that PM1 were internally mixed (i.e., bulk PM1), we determined that PM1 pH ranged from 0.3–8.6, with a mean pH of 5.0 ± 2.3. The pH depended on both Hair+ and Wi. Hair+ was controlled primarily by the NVCs/SO42− molar ratio, while Wi was controlled by the SO42− mass concentration and RH. Changes in pH with altitude were driven primarily by changes in SO42−. Since aerosols in marine atmospheres are rarely internally mixed, the scenario where non-sea salt species and sea-salt species were present in two separate aerosol modes in the PM1 (i.e., completely externally mixed) was also considered. Smaller pH values were predicted for the aerosol mode comprised only of non-sea salt species compared to the bulk PM1 (difference of around 1 unit on average). This was due to the exclusion of sea-salt species (especially hygroscopic alkaline NVCs) in this aerosol mode, which led to increases in Hair+ values and decreases in Wi values. This result demonstrated that assumptions of aerosol mixing states can impact aerosol pH predictions substantially, which will have important implications for evaluating the nature and magnitude of pH-dependent atmospheric processes that occur in the marine boundary layer.