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34 records · Page 2

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Assessing the Expansion of Ground-Motion Sensing Capability in Smart Cities via Internet Fiber-Optic Infrastructure

Monitoring ground motion in smart cities can improve the public safety by providing critical insights on natural and anthropogenic hazards, for example, earthquakes, landslides, explosions, infrastructure failures, and so forth. Although seismic activity is typically measured using dedicated point sensors (e.g., geophones and accelerometers), techniques such as distributed acoustic sensing have demonstrated the utility of using fiber-optic cable to detect seismic activity over comparable distances. In this article, we present the results of a study that quantifies the expansion in an area monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events by augmenting existing point sensors with the internet fiber-optic cable infrastructure. Here we begin by describing our methodology, which utilizes geospatial data on point sensors and internet optical fiber deployed in metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States. We extend these data to identify the area that can be monitored by (1) considering the observed seismic noise data in target locations, (2) applying the model from Wilson et al. (2021) to understand the potential coverage area gains using optical fiber sensing, and (3) optimizing the selection of fiber segments to maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs. We implement our methodology in ArcGIS to assess the additional area that can be monitored for low-amplitude ground-motion events (i.e., magnitude >0.5) by utilizing internet fiber-optic cables in the 100 most populous MSAs in the United States. We find that the addition of internet fiber-based sensors in MSAs would increase the area monitored on average by over an order of magnitude from 1% to 12%, if the subset of fiber cable segments that maximize coverage and minimize deployment costs is chosen even if only 20% of all fibers are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Exploring Uncertainty in Moment Estimation for Small Earthquakes in Southern Nevada Using the Coda Envelope Method

Compiling source parameter estimates for small earthquakes is important both for our understanding of earthquake physics and for accurately assessing earthquake hazard. Reliable source parameter estimates are difficult to achieve for small earthquakes, in part due to our inability to accurately model the relevant physical processes at high frequencies. The coda envelope methodology developed by Mayeda and Walter (1996) and Mayeda et al. (2003) can mitigate this concern and estimate the moment of small earthquakes by determining the parameters that control the shape of the S-wave coda envelope while eliminating path effects by minimizing the scatter between seismic stations. Here, we use an open-source implementation of this technique called the Coda Calibration Tool (CCT; Barno, 2017) to calculate CCT-based moment magnitude estimates of small earthquakes (M L 0–3) in the Rock Valley, Nevada, region within the Nevada National Security Site. The Rock Valley data set is of particular interest because it allows us to explore the changes in uncertainties of the coda calibration method with earthquake size and depth. We found that a consistent linear relationship exists between the local magnitude M L and our coda-derived M w estimates for earthquakes as small as M L 0–3, but that current CCT workflows do not accurately characterize very shallow events. We also demonstrate that the epistemic uncertainty in the apparent stress value assumed by the CCT algorithm can influence magnitude estimates of small earthquakes. In conclusion, these results provide valuable insight into the seismicity of this region, and inform future analysis and modeling efforts for nuclear monitoring and seismic hazard.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Earthquake detection in a simulated lunar regolith using distributed acoustic sensing

Current models of inner lunar geology have largely been inferred from the seismic experiments and observations performed during the Apollo missions that comprised a relatively small number of seismic instruments. Refining constraints on fundamental lunar relationships such as crust-mantle and mantle-core boundaries in the future will require seismic arrays spanning larger epicentral distances. A promising technology for installing dense seismic arrays with minimal human effort is distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an approach that allows a single length of fiber optic cable to act as hundreds or thousands of sensors when coupled with a DAS interrogator. While terrestrial uses of DAS technology for seismic monitoring rely on burying the cable to maximize fidelity of seismic signal transmission to the fiber, digging meters of trench to bury optical fiber on lunar or planetary surfaces is logistically infeasible. To evaluate DAS signal attenuation due to surface deployment of cable in lunar regolith, we completed earthquake detection analyses that evaluated the sensitivity of an optic-fiber DAS system to seismic signals at different burial depths. We deployed a single-mode fiber in a 10-m open-bottom wooden box filled with a lunar regolith simulant (LRS) with fiber buried at different depths within the LRS and recorded signals for four regional and local earthquakes. The results were used to identify and evaluate signal attenuation in surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber in the LRS. Burial depth responses to active-source signals were also evaluated similar to previous studies characterizing DAS sensitivity of surface-deployed fiber. Atmospheric noise was minimal as the cable was deployed in an indoor environment; however, where observed, atmospheric and anthropogenic noise was filtered out using the same bandpass filtering used to identify earthquake events. We found that signal attenuation of the surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber was relatively high in active-source experiments but was not consistently observed in earthquake signals. That burial depth is not highly correlated to attenuation of the observed earthquake signals indicates that in a noise-limited environment, placing DAS-interrogated fiber directly at the regolith surface may be a promising deployment strategy to consider for sensing remote seismic signals during lunar exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Precise relative magnitude measurement improves fracture characterization during hydraulic fracturing

SUMMARY Microseismic monitoring is an important technique to obtain detailed knowledge of in-situ fracture size and orientation during stimulation to maximize fluid flow throughout the rock volume and optimize production. Furthermore, considering that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes empirically follows a power law (i.e. Gutenberg–Richter), the accuracy of microseismic event magnitude distributions is potentially crucial for seismic risk management. In this study, we analyse microseismicity observed during four hydraulic fracture treatments of the legacy Cotton Valley experiment in 1997 at the Carthage gas field of East Texas, where fractures were activated at the base of the sand-shale Upper Cotton Valley formation. We perform waveform cross-correlation to detect similar event clusters, measure relative amplitude from aligned waveform pairs with a principal component analysis, then measure precise relative magnitudes. The new magnitudes significantly reduce the deviations between magnitude differences and relative amplitudes of event pairs. This subsequently reduces the magnitude differences between clusters located at different depths. Reduction in magnitude differences between clusters suggests that some attenuation-related biases could be effectively mitigated with relative magnitude measurements. The maximum likelihood method is applied to understand the magnitude frequency distributions and quantify the seismogenic index of the clusters. Statistical analyses with new magnitudes suggest that fractures that are more favourably oriented for shear failure have lower b-value and higher seismogenic index, suggesting higher potential for relatively larger earthquakes, rather than fractures subparallel to maximum horizontal principal stress orientation.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Evaluation of geophysical and anthropogenic sources of hydroacoustic noise in the Alaskan arctic

Quantifying the ocean soundscape is crucial for ocean-based seismoacoustic monitoring; it sets a baseline for the kinds and sizes of signals that can be detected above the background noise. As sea ice recedes, human activity in and around the Arctic Ocean is increasing, elevating sound levels and heightening the urgency of monitoring. Here, seven years of passive acoustic recordings from a National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration hydrophone in the Beaufort Sea are analyzed, focusing on frequencies between 1 and 125 Hz, a band of interest for detecting regional earthquakes and similar events. Sound is related to geophysical and anthropogenic sources, and seasonal and intraseasonal variations in the soundscape are examined. Sea ice emerges as a keystone feature of the Arctic Ocean acoustic environment, controlling or contributing to ambient sound levels at all frequencies studied. During low-ice months, sound levels are dominated by wind and sea surface waves, and in ice-covered months, wind-driven ice noise dominates. Seismic air gun surveys are prominent during low-ice periods, with sound levels decreasing with increasing distance and bathymetric complexity along the propagation path. The implications of this baseline soundscape for event detection in the Alaskan Arctic are discussed.

Niklasson, Siobhan [Los Alamos National Laboratory

A strainmeter array as the fulcrum of novel observatory sites along the Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory

Fault slip is a complex natural phenomenon involving multiple spatiotemporal scales from seconds to days to weeks. To understand the physical and chemical processes responsible for the full fault slip spectrum, a multidisciplinary approach is highly recommended. The Near Fault Observatories (NFOs) aim at providing high-precision and spatiotemporally dense multidisciplinary near-fault data, enabling the generation of new original observations and innovative scientific products. The Alto Tiberina Near Fault Observatory is a permanent monitoring infrastructure established around the Alto Tiberina fault (ATF), a 60 km long low-angle normal fault (mean dip 20°), located along a sector of the Northern Apennines (central Italy) undergoing an extension at a rate of about 3 mm yr –1 . The presence of repeating earthquakes on the ATF and a steep gradient in crustal velocities measured across the ATF by GNSS stations suggest large and deep (5–12 km) portions of the ATF undergoing aseismic creep. Both laboratory and theoretical studies indicate that any given patch of a fault can creep, nucleate slow earthquakes, and host large earthquakes, as also documented in nature for certain ruptures (e.g., Iquique in 2014, Tōhoku in 2011, and Parkfield in 2004). Nonetheless, how a fault patch switches from one mode of slip to another, as well as the interaction between creep, slow slip, and regular earthquakes, is still poorly documented by near-field observation. With the strainmeter array along the Alto Tiberina fault system (STAR) project, we build a series of six geophysical observatory sites consisting of 80–160 m deep vertical boreholes instrumented with strainmeters and seismometers as well as meteorological and GNSS antennas and additional seismometers at the surface. By covering the portions of the ATF that exhibits repeated earthquakes at shallow depth (above 4 km) with these new observatory sites, we aim to collect unique open-access data to answer fundamental questions about the relationship between creep, slow slip, dynamic earthquake rupture, and tectonic faulting.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Prediction and Analysis of Utah FORGE Injection Activities using a Coupled Thermo-hydro-mechanical and Earthquake (THM+E) Modeling Workflow

A coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) numerical workflow that is capable of modeling seismic slip is critical for the successful development of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). By integrating key physical processes, this workflow enables accurate simulation of temperature and pressure diffusions, stress changes, and induced seismicity. As a result, it serves as a vital tool for predicting induced seismicity and optimizing reservoir stimulation strategies. The Utah FORGE (Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy) project, located near Milford, Utah, is a U.S. Department of Energy initiative aimed at advancing EGS technology. In April 2024, eight new stimulation stages (Stages 3R-10) were conducted in well 16A (injection well) subsequent to the first series of stimulation (Stages 1-3) performed in April, 2022. To monitor the induced seismicity, geophones were deployed in wells 58-32, 56-32, and 78B-32, while fiber optic cables were also installed in wells 16B, 78-32, and 78B-32 to collect microseismic data and detect frac hits Preliminary analyses of microseismic catalogs and fiber optic data suggest that the stimulated fractures in Stages 3R–6 closely align with that generated during Stage 3, indicating that the new stimulations were likely reactivating the previously stimulated fracture. To better understand the underlying process, a comprehensive modeling approach that can accurately capture thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and seismic responses is essential. In this work, we propose and utilize a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical and earthquake (THM+E) simulation workflow to numerically investigate the stimulation activities on well 16A. The specific objective is to confirm whether the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) reactivated fractures previously stimulated during Stage 3. For this purpose, we perform THM+E simulations individually for Stages 3, 3R, 4, and 5, incorporating the discrete fracture networks (DFNs) created by the plane-fitting technique based on the microseismic catalogs. The simulation workflow consists of two separate models: a THM model and an earthquake model, coupled in a one-way manner. Detailed descriptions of the workflow are provided in Section 3. Simulation results are presented in terms of injection pressure, permeability evolution, and predicted seismic catalogs, which are then compared with field data for further analyses. This report is structured as follows. In Section 2, we present detailed analyses of the field data and propose the hypothesis that the new stimulation stages (Stages 3R–6) were probably reactivating the previously stimulated fractures in Stage 3. In Section 3, we introduce the coupled THM+E workflow and the problem setup to validate our hypothesis, followed by the simulation results for each stage in Section 4. Meanwhile, discussions are included to analyze the model predictions and their comparison with field data. Lastly, we conclude the report and outline future plans in Section 5.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Seismic Event Characterization Using Full Moment Tensors on the Hypersphere

Moment tensor solutions provide insights into the deformation that has occurred in the source region of a seismic event and are therefore of great value in identifying different types of seismic sources, such as when monitoring for underground nuclear tests. Despite this utility, inversion of waveforms recorded by seismometers for their full seismic moment tensor is not yet routine, and development of robust methods to classify events based on this information is in its infancy. Here, we assemble an inventory of 1405 full moment tensor solutions that include explosive, earthquake, and collapse events, and investigate the use of anisotropic probability distribution functions on the 5D hypersphere to discriminate between these sources. Using a Bayesian classifier, we obtain optimal success rates of 98.4% across all events and demonstrate that modification of the prior probabilities provides a natural way to alter the balance between not missing desirable events (such as explosions) versus misclassifying large numbers of undesired events (such as earthquakes). The approach is specifically designed to progress from traditional, bipolar event screening metrics to more generalized event identification across multiple types of seismic sources. Despite current databases containing insufficient numbers of events to definitively demonstrate at present, we also find intriguing evidence of subgroupings within individual source populations on the hypersphere, for example, between chemical and nuclear explosions, raising the potential possibility of discriminating between these event types in the future.

Geosciences

On the anatomy of acoustic emission

Abrupt, local frictional fault failure comprises a displacement that is normally accompanied by acoustic emission (AE)—an impulsive elastic wave broadcast with an amplitude proportional to particle velocity. The aggregate of these displacements is the basic fault motion. In laboratory shear experiments, the examination of a sequence of laboratory earthquakes includes continuous measurements of fault motion and the associated AE that is broadcast. From these measurements, connections between the fault motion and cumulative sum of the AE amplitude can be identified. The composition of the AE broadcasts reveals inhomogeneity in the fault mechanical structure from which they arise. This inhomogeneity can be decomposed into a time invariant AE component and an articulated AE component. The articulated AE component serves as a “state of the fault diagnostic” that follows a distinctive pattern to fault failure. Thus, the articulated AE component can be used directly to monitor the state of the fault.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Event Classifications on DNE2 Main Experiment Data using a Convolutional Neural Network Ensemble

The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Arctic Ocean Hydroacoustics

As the Arctic warms and loses its perennial ice cover, it is becoming more attractive for a variety of human uses. Hydroacoustic monitoring of this activity will grow in importance over the coming years and decades. Changes to the physical environment affect acoustic propagation and noise, with ramifications for our ability to detect and locate events and activities of interest. In this report, we use two long-term data sets from the Beaufort Sea, western Arctic Ocean, to determine how acoustic propagation conditions and seismic source detections are impacted by the changing environment: 1) oceanographic observations from ice-tethered profilers, and 2) passive acoustic recordings from a hydrophone. We find that changes to Beaufort Sea thermohaline stratification is stabilizing a subsurface duct, leading to more focused acoustic energy arrivals. Detections of catalogued submarine earthquakes show geographic differences in signal strength between seismic and acoustic waves. Signal strength increases with earthquake magnitude, but relationships to other source and path factors are less clear. Ambient noise also has clear seasonal patterns in the Arctic, with relatively low noise in the spring, higher noise near 1 Hz in summer, and higher noise near 10 Hz in winter. Climate change is expected to modify these seasonal noise patterns, impacting event detection. Future work will further investigate the mechanisms of ice effects on sound and couple acoustic modeling to an Earth System Model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Seafloor Seismic Noise Patterns Across the Pacific Basin

Seismic hazard monitoring and global tomography efforts are improved by recording signals at a variety of distances and azimuths to maximize subsurface sampling. Although seismic networks provide good to excellent coverage on land, seafloor stations are still sparse. Inclusion of ocean-based data would greatly improve the global coverage of seismic networks, but the use of seafloor seismic data to complement land-based detection and characterization of events is complicated by the generally much higher ambient noise level in the ocean compared to that observed on land. This noise is driven primarily by sea surface waves and tides, but how seismic noise levels vary with location in the oceans is not well described. Here, in this work, we analyze the relationship between ocean surface wave height and seismic noise in the 0.4–4 Hz frequency band at ocean-bottom seismometer deployments across the Pacific basin. We find that a noise-to-responsiveness ratio (NRR)—the median noise level at a station divided by its sea surface wave height responsiveness—correlates negatively with detection success for large teleseismic earthquakes. Stations that are close to land, with relatively shallow ocean and low wind speed, often have lower NRR than open-ocean stations, but the connection between geographic location and earthquake detection success is imperfect.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Geophysical measurements of a demolition at NRF

On May 31 st , 2025, at approximately 14:40:00 UTC, the former Submarine First Westinghouse (SW1) structure housing a large crane was demolished at the Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) located within the perimeter of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Several targeted explosives were used to facilitate this demolition. The INL Seismic Monitoring Program (SMP) installed four temporary seismic instrument suites around the site of the demolition in order to monitor ground motion including measuring peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and to calculate peak ground displacement (PGD). The demolition produced three types of waves: body waves, surface waves, and acoustic waves. The acoustic wave represents the largest signal received. The PGA, measured on the eastern component of the instrument located approximately 95m away from the demolition site, was 0.187g. The PGV measured was 0.0004 m/s, and the PGD was approximately 0.000006m. Rayleigh waves incident on an instrument located at the Advanced Test Reactor, about 7.6km away, were used to estimate a magnitude of 0.3 at the ATR, representing a yield of energy equivalent to approximately 3 grams of TNT.

58 - GEOSCIENCES