Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Earthquake”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗
DOE OSTI2012

New approach of determinations of earthquake moment magnitude using near earthquake source duration and maximum displacement amplitude of high frequency energy radiation

The new approach method to determine the magnitude by using amplitude displacement relationship (A), epicenter distance ({Delta}) and duration of high frequency radiation (t) has been investigated for Tasikmalaya earthquake, on September 2, 2009, and their aftershock. Moment magnitude scale commonly used seismic surface waves with the teleseismic range of the period is greater than 200 seconds or a moment magnitude of the P wave using teleseismic seismogram data and the range of 10-60 seconds. In this research techniques have been developed a new approach to determine the displacement amplitude and duration of high frequency radiation using near earthquake. Determination of the duration of high frequency using half of period of P waves on the seismograms displacement. This is due tothe very complex rupture process in the near earthquake. Seismic data of the P wave mixing with other wave (S wave) before the duration runs out, so it is difficult to separate or determined the final of P-wave. Application of the 68 earthquakes recorded by station of CISI, Garut West Java, the following relationship is obtained: Mw = 0.78 log (A) + 0.83 log {Delta}+ 0.69 log (t) + 6.46 with: A (m), d (km) and t (second). Moment magnitude of this new approach is quite reliable, time processing faster so useful for early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Earthquake Damage Assessment Using Objective Image Segmentation: A Case Study of 2010 Haiti Earthquake

In this study, we perform a case study on imagery from the Haiti earthquake that evaluates a novel object-based approach for characterizing earthquake induced surface effects of liquefaction against a traditional pixel based change technique. Our technique, which combines object-oriented change detection with discriminant/categorical functions, shows the power of distinguishing earthquake-induced surface effects from changes in buildings using the object properties concavity, convexity, orthogonality and rectangularity. Our results suggest that object-based analysis holds promise in automatically extracting earthquake-induced damages from high-resolution aerial/satellite imagery.

image segmentation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Temporal variation of intermediate-depth earthquakes around the time of the M 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake

Here, the temporal evolution of intermediate-depth seismicity before and after the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake reveals interactions between plate interface slip and deformation in the subducting slab. We investigate seismicity rate changes in the upper and lower planes of the double seismic zone beneath northeast Japan using both a β statistic approach and a temporal epidemic type aftershock sequence model. We do not observe an anomalous precursory increase in intermediate-depth earthquake activity preceding the mainshock; however, following the mainshock, we observe a rate increase for the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the upper plane. The average ratio of upper plane to lower plane activity and the mean deep aseismic slip rate both increased by factor of 2. An increase of downdip compression in the slab resulting from coseismic and postseismic deformation enhanced seismicity in the upper plane, which is dominated by events accommodating downdip shortening from plate unbending.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dehydration-driven stress transfer triggers intermediate-depth earthquakes

Intermediate-depth earthquakes (30–300 km) have been extensively documented within subducting oceanic slabs, but their mechanics remains enigmatic. Here in this paper we decipher the mechanism of these earthquakes by performing deformation experiments on dehydrating serpentinized peridotites (synthetic antigorite-olivine aggregates, minerals representative of subduction zones lithologies) at upper mantle conditions. At a pressure of 1.1 gigapascals, dehydration of deforming samples containing only 5 vol% of antigorite suffices to trigger acoustic emissions, a laboratory-scale analogue of earthquakes. At 3.5 gigapascals, acoustic emissions are recorded from samples with up to 50 vol% of antigorite. Experimentally produced faults, observed post-mortem, are sealed by fluid-bearing micro-pseudotachylytes. Microstructural observations demonstrate that antigorite dehydration triggered dynamic shear failure of the olivine load-bearing network. These laboratory analogues of intermediatedepth earthquakes demonstrate that little dehydration is required to trigger embrittlement. We propose an alternative model to dehydration-embrittlement in which dehydration-driven stress transfer, rather than fluid overpressure, causes embrittlement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Creep fronts and complexity in laboratory earthquake sequences illuminate delayed earthquake triggering

Earthquakes occur in clusters or sequences that arise from complex triggering mechanisms, but direct measurement of the slow subsurface slip responsible for delayed triggering is rarely possible. We investigate the origins of complexity and its relationship to heterogeneity using an experimental fault with two dominant seismic asperities. The fault is composed of quartz powder, a material common to natural faults, sandwiched between 760 mm long polymer blocks that deform the way 10 meters of rock would behave. We observe periodic repeating earthquakes that transition into aperiodic and complex sequences of fast and slow events. Neighboring earthquakes communicate via migrating slow slip, which resembles creep fronts observed in numerical simulations and on tectonic faults. Utilizing both local stress measurements and numerical simulations, we observe that the speed and strength of creep fronts are highly sensitive to fault stress levels left behind by previous earthquakes, and may serve as on-fault stress meters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

A laboratory nanoseismological study on deep-focus earthquake micromechanics

Global earthquake occurring rate displays an exponential decay down to ~300 km and then peaks around 550 to 600 km before terminating abruptly near 700 km. How fractures initiate, nucleate, and propagate at these depths remains one of the greatest puzzles in earth science, as increasing pressure inhibits fracture propagation. We report nanoseismological analysis on high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) records obtained during ruptures triggered by partial transformation from olivine to spinel in Mg 2 GeO 4 , an analog to the dominant mineral (Mg,Fe) 2 SiO 4 olivine in the upper mantle, using state-of-the-art seismological techniques, in the laboratory. AEs’ focal mechanisms, as well as their distribution in both space and time during deformation, are carefully analyzed. Microstructure analysis shows that AEs are produced by the dynamic propagation of shear bands consisting of nanograined spinel. These nanoshear bands have a near constant thickness (~100 nm) but varying lengths and self-organize during deformation. This precursory seismic process leads to ultimate macroscopic failure of the samples. Several source parameters of AE events were extracted from the recorded waveforms, allowing close tracking of event initiation, clustering, and propagation throughout the deformation/transformation process. AEs follow the Gutenberg-Richter statistics with a well-defined b value of 1.5 over three orders of moment magnitudes, suggesting that laboratory failure processes are self-affine. The seismic relation between magnitude and rupture area correctly predicts AE magnitude at millimeter scales. A rupture propagation model based on strain localization theory is proposed. Future numerical analyses may help resolve scaling issues between laboratory AE events and deep-focus earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

The spatial footprint of injection wells in a global compilation of induced earthquake sequences

Fluid injection can cause extensive earthquake activity, sometimes at unexpectedly large distances. Appropriately mitigating associated seismic hazards requires a better understanding of the zone of influence of injection. We analyze spatial seismicity decay in a global dataset of 18 induced cases with clear association between isolated wells and earthquakes. We distinguish two populations. The first is characterized by near-well seismicity density plateaus and abrupt decay, dominated by square-root space-time migration and pressure diffusion. Injection at these sites occurs within the crystalline basement. The second population exhibits larger spatial footprints and magnitudes, as well as a power law–like, steady spatial decay over more than 10 kilometers, potentially caused by poroelastic effects. Far-reaching spatial effects during injection may increase event magnitudes and seismic hazard beyond expectations based on purely pressure-driven seismicity.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Earthquake response of head-mounted equipment in advanced nuclear reactors

The seismic response of safety-related equipment mounted on the head of an advanced reactor, including pumps, control rod drive mechanisms, and reactor monitoring devices, will affect the design and layout of many advanced reactors. High earthquake-induced accelerations in such equipment may challenge their seismic qualification and trigger the need for additional support framing on the reactor head. Base isolation is a design solution that can drastically reduce seismic demands on equipment. This article describes a set of earthquake-simulator experiments conducted on a scale-model of a base-isolated reactor vessel including four representations of head-mounted equipment, with frequencies spanning from 4.5 to 27 Hz. Dynamic responses of the head-mounted equipment, including displacements, accelerations, and strains, were measured in the experiments for three support conditions: conventional, and seismically isolated using single concave Friction Pendulum (SFP) bearings and triple Friction Pendulum (TFP) bearings. Seismic isolation was effective at reducing equipment responses (accelerations, displacements, and strains) with respect to those in the conventionally supported vessel across a range of seismic inputs. Companion numerical studies highlight the accuracy to be expected in the calculation of different response quantities for lightly damped equipment. The importance of characterizing damping in head-mounted, safety-related equipment through physical experiments to support design and risk assessment is made clear through the numerical simulations.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2019

Broadband (0–5 Hz) Fully Deterministic 3D Ground‐Motion Simulations of a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake: Comparison with Empirical Ground‐Motion Models and 3D Path and Site Effects from Source Normalized Intensities

We report on high‐performance computing (HPC) fully deterministic simulation of ground motions for a moment magnitude (⁠Mw⁠) 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward fault resolved to 5 Hz using the SW4 finite‐difference code. We computed motions obeying physics‐based 3D wave propagation at a regional scale with an Mw 7.0 kinematic rupture model generated following Graves and Pitarka (2016). Both plane‐layered (1D) and 3D Earth models were considered, with 3D subsurface material properties and topography interpolated from a model of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The resulting ground‐motion intensities cover a broader frequency range than typically considered in regional‐scale simulations, including higher frequencies relevant for engineering analysis of structures. Median intensities for sites across the domain are within the reported between‐event uncertainties (⁠τ⁠) of ground‐motion models (GMMs) across spectral periods 0.2–10 s (frequencies 0.1–5 Hz). The within‐event standard deviation ϕ of ground‐motion intensity measurement residuals range 0.2–0.5 natural log units with values consistently larger for the 3D model. Source‐normalized ratios of intensities (3D/1D) reveal patterns of path and site effects that are correlated with known geologic structure. These results demonstrate that earthquake simulations with fully deterministic wave propagation in 3D Earth models on HPC platforms produce broadband ground motions with median and within‐event aleatory variability consistent with empirical models. Systematic intensity variations for the 3D model caused by path and site effects suggest that these epistemic effects can be estimated and removed to reduce variation in site‐specific hazard estimates. This study motivates future work to evaluate the validity of the USGS 3D model and investigate the development of path and site corrections by running more scenarios.

Rodgers, Arthur J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Relationships of earthquakes (and earthquake-associated mass movements) and polar motion as determined by Kalman filtered, Very-Long-Baseline-Interferometry

A Kalman filter was designed to yield optimal estimates of geophysical parameters from Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) group delay data. The geophysical parameters are the polar motion components, adjustments to nutation in obliquity and longitude, and a change in the length of day parameter. The VLBI clock (and clock rate) parameters and atmospheric zenith delay parameters are estimated simultaneously. Filter background is explained. The IRIS (International Radio Interferometric Surveying) VLBI data are Kalman filtered. The resulting polar motion estimates are examined. There are polar motion signatures at the times of three large earthquakes occurring in 1984 to 1986: Mexico, 19 September, 1985 (Magnitude M sub s = 8.1); Chile, 3 March, 1985 (M sub s = 7.8); and Taiwan, 14 November, 1986 (M sub s = 7.8). Breaks in polar motion occurring about 20 days after the earthquakes appear to correlate well with the onset of increased regional seismic activity and a return to more normal seismicity (respectively). While the contribution of these three earthquakes to polar motion excitations is small, the cumulative excitation due to earthquakes, or seismic phenomena over a Chandler wobble damping period may be significant. Mechanisms for polar motion excitation due to solid earth phenomena are examined. Excitation functions are computed, but the data spans are too short to draw conclusions based on these data.

Preisig, Joseph Richard Mark↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coseismic fault slip associated with the 1992 M(sub w) 6.1 Joshua Tree, California, earthquake: Implications for the Joshua Tree-Landers earthquake sequence

Coseismic surface deformation associated with the M(sub w) 6.1, April 23, 1992, Joshua Tree earthquake is well represented by estimates of geodetic monument displacements at 20 locations independently derived from Global Positioning System and trilateration measurements. The rms signal to noise ratio for these inferred displacements is 1.8 with near-fault displacement estimates exceeding 40 mm. In order to determine the long-wavelength distribution of slip over the plane of rupture, a Tikhonov regularization operator is applied to these estimates which minimizes stress variability subject to purely right-lateral slip and zero surface slip constraints. The resulting slip distribution yields a geodetic moment estimate of 1.7 x 10(exp 18) N m with corresponding maximum slip around 0.8 m and compares well with independent and complementary information including seismic moment and source time function estimates and main shock and aftershock locations. From empirical Green's functions analyses, a rupture duration of 5 s is obtained which implies a rupture radius of 6-8 km. Most of the inferred slip lies to the north of the hypocenter, consistent with northward rupture propagation. Stress drop estimates are in the range of 2-4 MPa. In addition, predicted Coulomb stress increases correlate remarkably well with the distribution of aftershock hypocenters; most of the aftershocks occur in areas for which the mainshock rupture produced stress increases larger than about 0.1 MPa. In contrast, predicted stress changes are near zero at the hypocenter of the M(sub w) 7.3, June 28, 1992, Landers earthquake which nucleated about 20 km beyond the northernmost edge of the Joshua Tree rupture. Based on aftershock migrations and the predicted static stress field, we speculate that redistribution of Joshua Tree-induced stress perturbations played a role in the spatio-temporal development of the earth sequence culminating in the Landers event.

Bennett, Richard A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Regional Earthquake Ground Motion Simulations for Southern California With EQSIM: Insights From the 2008 Chino Hills, 2024 Highland Park, and 2021 Carson Earthquakes

This study presents physics-based, 3D simulations using the EQSIM framework for several earthquakes in the Los Angeles region. The primary objective was to assess the ability of deterministic physics-based ground motion simulations to reproduce the observed motions from historical events. The selected events included the mathematical equation M w 5.4 2008 Chino Hills, the mathematical equation M w 4.4 2024 Highland Park, and the mathematical equation M w 4.3 2021 Carson events. The simulated motions were evaluated by comparing the recorded and simulated seismograms, as well as the Fourier amplitude spectra, across multiple seismic stations. The SCEC 3D velocity model, CVM-S4.26.M01, was used to represent the regional geology, and ground motion simulations were carried out with a resolution of up to 5 Hz. The results indicate that the simulated motions captured the recorded motions up to approximately 4 Hz. While careful iterations regarding source parameters and corner frequencies were required, and, for the case of the Highland Park event, some of the near-source stations had relatively low accuracy, the present study established a positive step toward the utilization of physics-based simulations in practical applications. The computational efficiencies exhibited by EQSIM, especially on GPU clusters, further supported this assertion, as wall-clock times of simulations involving more than 10 billion grid points were as low as mathematical equation minutes. This permits ensemble simulations for a considered scenario event so that modeling uncertainties (e.g., source and geology) can be bracketed.

EQSIM↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling earthquake effects on groundwater levels: evidences from the 2012 Emilia earthquake (Italy)

Changes in water level are commonly reported in regions struck by a seismic event. The sign and amplitude of such changes depend on the relative position of measuring points with respect to the hypocenter, and on the poroelastic properties of the rock. We apply a porous media flow model (TOUGH2) to describe groundwater flow and water-level changes associated with the first M L 5.9 mainshock of the 2012 seismic sequence in Emilia (Italy). We represent the earthquake as an instantaneous pressure step, whose amplitude was inferred from the properties of the seismic source inverted from geodetic data. The results are consistent with the evolution recorded in both deep and shallow water wells in the area and suggest that our description of the seismic event is suitable to capture both timing and magnitude of water-level changes. Finally, we draw some conclusions about the influence of material heterogeneity on the pore pressure evolution, and we show that to reproduce the observed maximum amplitude it is necessary to take into account compaction in the shallow layer.

2012 Emilia earthquake↗
DOE OSTI2018

Discrimination of Anthropogenic Events and Tectonic Earthquakes in Utah Using a Quadratic Discriminant Function Approach with Local Distance Amplitude Ratios

Most of the commonly used seismic discrimination approaches are designed for teleseismic and regional data. To monitor for the smallest events, some of these discriminants have been adapted for local distances (< 200 km), with mixed level of success. For this, we take advantage of the variety of seismic sources, including nontraditionally studied anthropogenic sources and the existence of a dense regional seismic network in the Utah region to evaluate amplitude ratio seismic discrimination at local distances. First, we explored phase-amplitude Pg-to-Sg ratios for multiple frequency bands to classify events in a dataset that comprises populations of single-shot surface explosions, shallow and deep ripple-fired mining blasts, mining-induced events (MIEs), and tectonic earthquakes. We achieved a success rate of about 59%–83%. Then, for the same dataset, we combined the Pg-to-Sg phase-amplitude ratios with Sg-to-Rg spectral amplitude ratios in a multivariate quadratic discriminant function (QDF) approach. For two-category pairwise classification, seven of ten population pairs show misclassification rates of about 20% or less, with five pairs showing rates of about 10% or less. The approach performs best for the pair involving the populations of single-shot explosions and MIEs. By combining both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios in the multivariate QDFs, we are able to achieve an average improvement of about 4%–14% in misclassification rates compared with Pg-to-Sg ratios alone. When all five event populations are considered simultaneously, as expected, the potential for misclassification increases, and our QDF approach using both Pg-to-Sg and Rg-to-Sg ratios achieves an average success rate of about 74% compared with the rate of about 86% for two-category pairwise classification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗