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Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at about 3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching about 4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid's diameter at 60 +/- 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 's potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. We cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid Disruption

Hydrology Copilot: A Cloud-Native Ai System for Hydrological Data Analysis

The emergence of AI-driven Earth observation systems promises to broaden access to petabyte-scale geospatial data beyond domain specialists. However, translating this vision into operational scientific infrastructure requires addressing fundamental challenges in data virtualization, code transparency, and domain-specific reasoning. We present Hydrology Copilot, a cloud-native AI framework for natural-language-driven analysis of Earth observation data. To demonstrate operational capabilities at scale, we implement the system using NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System version 3 (NLDAS-3), which provides surface meteorological forcing and land-surface model output across North and Central America at 1-km resolution, from which drought diagnostics are derived. The system integrates five core contributions: (1) scalable data virtualization using Kerchunk-based cloud optimized access, achieving a 1.5 to 4.6 times improvement in I/O latency across benchmark queries spanning regional single-day extractions (4.6 times speedup) to continental monthly aggregations (1.5 times speedup); (2) transparent code generation through Microsoft Azure AI Foundry agents that expose executable Python workflows for scientific verification; (3) persistent conversational memory enabling multi-turn analytical discourse across sessions; (4) intelligent query validation that enforces dataset boundaries and resolves ambiguous requests before execution; and (5) a multi-agent architecture coordinating query parsing, code generation, and visualization. We evaluate the system through drought-monitoring workflows, demonstrating reliable code generation, accurate results validated against reference computations and the operational U.S. Drought Monitor, and efficient operation across increasingly complex tasks. By bridging natural-language interfaces with rigorous hydrological analysis, Hydrology Copilot advances beyond proof-of-concept demonstrations to provide a deployable framework for operational Earth science applications.

Data virtualization

Using Open Innovation in Reducing Risk to Crews

In the exploration of destinations outside of Earth's neighborhood, specifically Mars, scientific and engineering inquiries have occurred by two means; observations from satellites and observations by landed spacecraft. Satellite observations (Mariner, MRO, Mars Odyssey, provide global-scale spatial and temporal data while landed spacecraft (Viking, Mars Pathfinder, Spirit, Opportunity, Phoenix Mars Lander) investigate highly localized areas of the surface of the planet. In preparation for human exploration, extensive knowledge of the surface and atmospheric environments should be known before the first human leaves Earth. The primary goal of performing reconnaissance on Mars on a sub-global scale is to know as much as possible about the environment to which crews will be subjected. At the current rate of launching and landing probes to Mars, it will take a very long time to understand the surface and atmospheric conditions associated with the regions where prospective crews may land. Meanwhile electronics and electrical systems are rapidly getting smaller. One can argue that to acquire the knowledge of the region, one must take hundreds, maybe thousands of measurements simultaneously. One means to perform such a task is to deploy a swarm of sensors. Such a swarm would perform an in-situ assessment of the region. Imagine a close flyby mission to Mars for example, where mini- to micro-sensors are deposited into the atmosphere over half an orbit or more. The sensors, captured by the atmospheric drag and Martian gravity slowly descend buffeted about by Martian winds and weather until they settle on the surface a great time later (think of how long dust takes to settle). As they descend they communicate a vast array of data; temperature, chemistry, pressure, radiation dose, electric or magnetic properties from a region of the planet and an individual sensor need not measure the same quantity as its neighbors. Initially, they could move at the whim of the environment but later versions could have locomotion or propulsion mechanisms. Humans wouldn't need to decide where the sensors go, the sensors do that for themselves. This is a key strength of a sensor swarm. The intelligence relies on the group not on a decision maker on earth. Real time sensor inputs direct what the swarm considers most interesting to investigate resulting in emergent behavior. We issued a $20,000 challenge to the global innovators to provide solutions as to how such a swarm could be initialized and by what protocols and methodologies by which they operate. Over 400 innovators from 49 countries took a look at the problem, with three receiving partial awards for solutions.

Mel Ferebee

Examination of Regional Trends in Low Level Cloud Properties Found in the Aqua-MODIS Satellite Record

Clouds have a pronounced influence on the Earth?s climate. Relative to cloud free conditions, they cool the planet by increasing the amount of solar radiation reflected back to space and reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface, but they warm the planet by decreasing the amount of thermal infrared radiation escaping to space and increasing the amount reaching the surface (a greenhouse effect). The global mean net cloud radiative effect (CRE) is about -20 W/m2, a cooling effect at both the top-ofatmosphere and surface. Given the magnitude of CRE?s, it is expected that changes in cloud properties could be a significant factor in climate change due to anthropogenic forcing?s, yet cloud feedbacks are not well known and remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. This paper explores relationships between coincident observations of atmospheric aerosols, clouds and radiation derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Clouds and the Earth?s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on the Aqua satellite. We investigate several interesting regional trends that have emerged in the nearly 18-year satellite record that suggest correlation between changes in low-level cloud properties and changes in aerosol optical depth that may be associated with changes in pollution emissions and possibly with other factors. MERRA reanalysis of meteorological conditions and aerosol particulate species are investigated to help better understand the potential mechanisms responsible for the observed cloud property trends. Finally, we analyze a new CERES flux by cloud type dataset in order to try and isolate the associated trends in low-level cloud radiative effects. It is anticipated that this study using long-term observations of clouds, aerosols and radiative fluxes combined with model reanalysis data will contribute to an improved understanding of cloud climate feedbacks.

William L Smith Jr.

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR

Skylab M551 Metals Melting Experiment

The objectives of the M551 Metals Melting Experiment are to (a) study behavior of molten metal, (b) characterize metals melted and solidified in the low gravity space environment compared to one-gravity of earth, and (c) determine feasibility of joining metals in space. The experiment used the electron beam (EB) and chamber of the M512 apparatus to make a dwell puddle and a melt in a rotating disc of varying thickness. Hence, the EB performed cut-through, full and partial penetration melts, in addition to a re-solidified button. The three disc materials were aluminum 2219-T87, 304 stainless steel and pure tantalum to provide a wide range of density and melting conditions. Observations to date include (a) the proof that EB welding, cutting and melting can be done successfully in low gravity. Earlier, some welding authorities had postulated that without gravity the EB would force the molten puddle out of contact. However, the experiment proved that surface tension forces predominate. (b) From the view-point of cast-solidification, small, equiaxed grains in Skylab specimens compared to large, elongated grains in ground-based specimens were observed. The former are thought to be associated with constitutional supercooling and nucleation where the latter are associated with dendritic solidification. In further support of the more equiaxed grain growth in Skylab, symmetric sub-grain patterns were frequently observed where there was much less symmetry in ground-based specimens. Further work is being done to explain the differences in solidification.

E C Mckannan

In-Orbit Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Battery Switch

A viewgraph presentation outlines the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) power system and battery history. ERBS spacecraft and battery cell failures are listed with the reasons for failure. The battery management decision and stabilization of the batteries is discussed. Present battery operations are shown to be successful.

Ahmad, Anisa

Detection of visible-wavelength aurora on Mars

Mars hosts various auroral processes despite the planet’s tenuous atmosphere and lack of a global magnetic field. To date, all aurora observations have been at ultraviolet wavelengths from orbit. We describe the discovery of green visible-wavelength aurora, originating from the atomic oxygen line at 557.7 nanometers, detected with the SuperCam and Mastcam-Z instruments on the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover. Near–real-time simulations of a Mars-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) provided sufficient lead-time to schedule an observation with the rover. The emission was observed 3 days after the CME eruption, suggesting that the aurora was induced by particles accelerated by the moving shock front. To our knowledge, detection of aurora from a planetary surface other than Earth has never been reported, nor has visible aurora been observed at Mars. This detection demonstrates that auroral forecasting at Mars is possible, and that during events with higher particle precipitation, or under less dusty atmospheric conditions, aurorae will be visible to future astronauts.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Coding Performance of the Probe-Orbiter-Earth Communication Link

The coding performance of the Probe-Orbiter-Earth communication link is analyzed and compared for several cases. It is assumed that the coding system consists of a convolutional code at the Probe, a quantizer and another convolutional code at the Orbiter, and two cascaded Viterbi decoders or a combined decoder on the ground.

D Divsalar

Horseshoe Asteroids and Quasi-satellites in Earth-like Orbits

Newly found asteroid 2003 YN107 is the first and only known current quasi-satellite (QS) of the Earth. Asteroid 2002 AA29 is in a horseshoe orbit (HS) but has periods of QS behavior. Both asteroids closely follow Earth s orbit. 2002 AA29 has inclination i is approximately 11 degrees while for 2003 YN107 i<5 degrees, making the most Earth-like orbit known. 2003 YN107, 2002 AA29, and other Earth-resonant objects in less Earthlike orbits, form an important new class of co-orbital bodies with interesting dynamics and are the best targets for sample return missions to asteroids.

M Connors

In Flight Performance of a Six Ampere-hour Nickel-cadmium Battery in Low Earth Orbit

Flight data for 17,000 orbital cycles are reviewed and summarized. The nickel cadmium battery system operated without failure or abnormality. Battery trend analysis used in determining the feasibility of extending mission life is discussed. The life test data for 20% depth of discharge indicates design life requirements would be reached even at a deeper depth of discharge.

Mcdermott, J. K.

NASA Talks: Earth to Mars in 3 Giant Leaps

“Earth to Mars in 3 Giant Leaps” will explain why, despite landing astronauts on the Moon more than 40 years ago, humanity has not yet sent people to Mars. Astronaut Dr. Stan Love will demonstrate that the challenge is not simply building bigger rockets, it is overcoming the immense engineering, logistical, and human obstacles required for a safe round-trip mission to the Red Planet. The first giant leap focuses on Low Earth Orbit, where the International Space Station serves as humanity's laboratory for living and working in space; the second giant leap revisits the Apollo missions to the Moon, illustrating the extraordinary amount of energy required to travel beyond Earth orbit; and the third and greatest leap explores human exploration of Mars.

Stan Love

In-Orbit Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) Battery Switch

This presentation reviews the history of the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and the problems which were experienced with the batteries. After two cells shorted on the first Battery, the decision was made to take battery 1 of line in late 1992. This left the second battery supporting all loads. The second battery began to experience problems in 1998 into 1999. The decision was made to bring the first battery on line and take the second battery off line. The steps to switching the batteries are reviewed, and the results are discussed.

Ahmad, Anisa

Returning an Entire Near-Earth Asteroid in Support of Human Exploration Beyond Low-Earth Orbit

This paper describes the results of a study into the feasibility of identifying, robotically capturing, and returning an entire Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) to the vicinity of the Earth by the middle of the next decade. The feasibility of such an asteroid retrieval mission hinges on finding an overlap between the smallest NEAs that could be reasonably discovered and characterized and the largest NEAs that could be captured and transported in a reasonable flight time. This overlap appears to be centered on NEAs roughly 7 m in diameter corresponding to masses in the range of 250,000 kg to 1,000,000 kg. The study concluded that it would be possible to return a approx.500,000-kg NEA to high lunar orbit by around 2025. The feasibility is enabled by three key developments: the ability to discover and characterize an adequate number of sufficiently small near-Earth asteroids for capture and return; the ability to implement sufficiently powerful solar electric propulsion systems to enable transportation of the captured NEA; and the proposed human presence in cislunar space in the 2020s enabling exploration and exploitation of the returned NEA. Placing a 500-t asteroid in high lunar orbit would provide a unique, meaningful, and affordable destination for astronaut crews in the next decade. This disruptive capability would have a positive impact on a wide range of the nation's human space exploration interests. It would provide a high-value target in cislunar space that would require a human presence to take full advantage of this new resource. It would offer an affordable path to providing operational experience with astronauts working around and with a NEA that could feed forward to much longer duration human missions to larger NEAs in deep space. It represents a new synergy between robotic and human missions in which robotic spacecraft would retrieve significant quantities of valuable resources for exploitation by astronaut crews to enable human exploration farther out into the solar system. The capture, transportation, examination, and dissection of an entire NEA would provide valuable information for planetary defense activities that may someday have to deflect a much larger near-Earth object. Transportation of the NEA to lunar orbit with a total flight time of 6 to 10 years would be enabled by a ~40-kW solar electric propulsion system with a specific impulse of 3,000 s. The flight system could be launched to low-Earth orbit (LEO) on a single Atlas V-class launch vehicle, and return to lunar orbit a NEA with at least 28 times the mass launched to LEO. Longer flight times, higher power SEP systems, or a target asteroid in a particularly favorable orbit could increase the mass amplification factor from 28-to-1 to 70-to-1 or greater. The NASA GRC COMPASS team estimated the full life-cycle cost of an asteroid capture and return mission at approx.$2.6B.

asteroid mining