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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Proximal Observations of Epicentral Infrasound Generated by Shallow Low-Magnitude Earthquakes in the Permian Basin, West Texas

Infrasound generated by earthquakes and explosions is generally detected at receivers at epicentral distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, proximal (<50 km) observations are especially important for low-magnitude earthquakes and low-yield explosions that may not generate signals capable of being detected at great ranges. Here, in this study, we present on the signals detected on an infrasound array 3 km away from two M L 2.9 earthquakes in the Permian Basin of west Texas. Local infrasound (LIS), generated at receivers during the passage of seismic waves, was detected following each earthquake. Epicentral infrasound (EIS), created at or near the epicenter and propagating away as a sound wave, was also detected. Array processing methods show that the EIS signals arrive from the same direction as the earthquake epicenters and at acoustic speeds. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of laterally propagating EIS at proximal ranges following an earthquake of any magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

How earthquakes organize stress

Stress is not uniform in the Earth. Therefore, we must use natural experiments to measure the distribution of stresses and related quantities, rather than single values. For instance, dynamic triggering shows that faults are uniformly distributed over their loading cycles in Southern California. The probability that a fault ruptures across a barrier measures the in situ energy distribution. Fault roughness reflects the distribution of strength. These natural experiments produce observable distributions that are surprisingly consistent and suggest some degree of self-organization in the Earth’s crust. Once established, the functional form of the distributions can be used to track changes in response to earthquakes as well as to distinguish fundamentally different fault systems. Transient fault locking before stress release in laboratory experiments can be interpreted as a consequence of self-organization of fault stress. The robust self-organization of multiple variables in earthquake systems suggests that the most consequential mechanical outcome of earthquakes may be the redistribution of stress and the strain energy associated with it. The low friction on a fault during seismic slip as inferred by temperature measurements of the Tohoku earthquake is consistent with dissipation playing a secondary role to this redistribution process. Through stress redistribution and interaction, subduction zone faults tend to synchronize, perhaps due to their geometric simplicity, while the continental system of Southern California cannot synchronize, perhaps due to the complexity of the fault network. Earthquakes organize stress in the crust and produce a suite of well-defined, consistent distributions.

earthquakes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing the Limits of InSAR to Detect Crustal Displacement from Low-Magnitude Earthquakes through Deep Learning

Detecting surface deformation associated with low-magnitude (M w ≤ 5) seismicity using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is challenging due to the subtlety of the signal and the often challenging imaging environments. However, low-magnitude earthquakes are potential precursors to larger seismic events, and thus characterizing the crustal displacement associated with them is crucial for regional seismic hazard assessment. We combine InSAR time-series techniques with a Deep Learning (DL) autoencoder denoiser to detect the magnitude and extent of crustal deformation from the M w = 3.4 Gallina, New Mexico earthquake that occurred on 30 July 2020. Although InSAR alone cannot detect event-related deformation from such a low-magnitude seismic event, application of the DL method reveals maximum displacements as small as (±2.5 mm) in the vicinity of both the fault and earthquake epicenter without prior knowledge of the fault system. This finding improves small-scale displacement discernment with InSAR by an order of magnitude relative to previous studies. We additionally estimate best-fitting fault parameters associated with the observed deformation. The application of the DL technique unlocks the potential for low-magnitude earthquake studies, providing new insights into local fault geometries and potential risks from higher-magnitude earthquakes. This technique also permits low-magnitude event monitoring in areas where seismic networks are sparse, allowing for the possibility of global fault deformation monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Earthquake detection in a simulated lunar regolith using distributed acoustic sensing

Current models of inner lunar geology have largely been inferred from the seismic experiments and observations performed during the Apollo missions that comprised a relatively small number of seismic instruments. Refining constraints on fundamental lunar relationships such as crust-mantle and mantle-core boundaries in the future will require seismic arrays spanning larger epicentral distances. A promising technology for installing dense seismic arrays with minimal human effort is distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), an approach that allows a single length of fiber optic cable to act as hundreds or thousands of sensors when coupled with a DAS interrogator. While terrestrial uses of DAS technology for seismic monitoring rely on burying the cable to maximize fidelity of seismic signal transmission to the fiber, digging meters of trench to bury optical fiber on lunar or planetary surfaces is logistically infeasible. To evaluate DAS signal attenuation due to surface deployment of cable in lunar regolith, we completed earthquake detection analyses that evaluated the sensitivity of an optic-fiber DAS system to seismic signals at different burial depths. We deployed a single-mode fiber in a 10-m open-bottom wooden box filled with a lunar regolith simulant (LRS) with fiber buried at different depths within the LRS and recorded signals for four regional and local earthquakes. The results were used to identify and evaluate signal attenuation in surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber in the LRS. Burial depth responses to active-source signals were also evaluated similar to previous studies characterizing DAS sensitivity of surface-deployed fiber. Atmospheric noise was minimal as the cable was deployed in an indoor environment; however, where observed, atmospheric and anthropogenic noise was filtered out using the same bandpass filtering used to identify earthquake events. We found that signal attenuation of the surface-deployed fiber compared to buried fiber was relatively high in active-source experiments but was not consistently observed in earthquake signals. That burial depth is not highly correlated to attenuation of the observed earthquake signals indicates that in a noise-limited environment, placing DAS-interrogated fiber directly at the regolith surface may be a promising deployment strategy to consider for sensing remote seismic signals during lunar exploration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Compilation of a Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog and Relocations in the Caucasus Region

Instrumental seismic monitoring has a long history in the Caucasus and started in 1899 when the first seismograph was installed in Tbilisi, Georgia. Much of the analog paper records from this time period are preserved in the Tbilisi archives because Georgia served as the regional data center. In the 1990s, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the political turmoil in the region, the analog networks and the communication between the newly formed national networks deteriorated. In Georgia, for the next 13 yr, the seismic network coverage was poor until the 2002 Tbilisi earthquake. Following this earthquake, the first permanent digital seismic station in Georgia was established in Tbilisi in 2003. The digital era progressively improved the ability to collect and archive data and today more than a hundred broadband seismic stations (including temporary arrays) are operating in the southern Caucasus. Until recently, the region lacked a coordinated effort to catalog all analog and digital era data collected by different countries into a single repository. As a result of collaboration between Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the Ilia State University, and the Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan, a comprehensive earthquake catalog was compiled for the Caucasus and neighboring areas as part of a broader probabilistic seismic hazard assessment project. Here this project digitized Soviet-era paper bulletins, compiled a unified earthquake catalog from regional bulletins, developed 1D reference velocity model, and used it to relocate the events. The final catalog contains 16,963 events with magnitudes 3.7 and above, bringing together all the available data sets in the Caucasus region from 1900 to 2015, significantly improving locations, and generating the most complete earthquake catalog in the region, temporally and geographically.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyclic Injection Leads to Larger and More Frequent Induced Earthquakes under Volume-Controlled Conditions

As carbon storage technologies advance globally, methods to understand and mitigate induced earthquakes become increasingly important. Although the physical processes that relate increased subsurface pore pressure changes to induced earthquakes have long been known, reliable methods to forecast and control induced seismic sequences remain elusive. Suggested reservoir engineering scenarios for mitigating induced earthquakes typically involve modulation of the injection rate. Some operators have implemented periodic shutdowns (i.e., effective cycling of injection rates) to allow reservoir pressures to equilibrate (e.g., Paradox Valley) or shut-in wells after the occurrence of an event of concern (e.g., Basel, Switzerland). Other proposed scenarios include altering injection rates, actively managing pressures through coproduction of fluids, and preinjection brine extraction. Here, in this work, we use 3D physics-based earthquake simulations to understand the effects of different injection scenarios on induced earthquake rates, maximum event magnitudes, and postinjection seismicity. For comparability, the modeled injection considers the same cumulative volume over the project’s operational life but varies the schedule and rates of fluid injected. Simulation results show that cyclic injection leads to more frequent and larger events than constant injection. Furthermore, with intermittent injection scenario, a significant number of events are shown to occur during pauses in injection, and the seismicity rate remains elevated for longer into the postinjection phase compared to the constant injection scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constructing a High‐Resolution Aftershock Catalog for the 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec Earthquake Sequence Using a Machine Learning–Based Workflow

The 8 September 2017 Mw 8.2 Tehuantepec earthquake was the largest instrumentally recorded normal‐faulting earthquake in Mexico. The mainshock occurred offshore within the Tehuantepec seismic gap, generating >30,000 aftershocks in the following year. We applied an open‐source, machine learning (ML)–assisted workflow to construct a high‐resolution aftershock catalog using data from temporary and permanent seismic networks in southern Mexico. The workflow integrates PhaseNet for phase detection; GaMMA for phase association; and VELEST, HypoInverse, and HypoDD for velocity modeling and relocation. We processed seven months of continuous waveform data from 29 broadband stations, including a temporary rapid‐response deployment that improved station coverage of the offshore rupture zone. To evaluate performance, we compared our results against analyst‐reviewed picks and event locations from the Servicio Sismológico Nacional catalog. The resulting catalog contains 11,374 relocated earthquakes and represents the most comprehensive published dataset for this sequence, incorporating the first full use of the temporary network. Relocated hypocenters show improved depth control and align well with the Slab2.0 subduction geometry, revealing clearer separation between offshore slab events and onshore crustal seismicity. This study demonstrates that combining ML‐based detection with established methods provides a scalable and reproducible approach for constructing high‐quality earthquake catalogs in tectonically complex environments and offers practical guidance for adapting similar workflows to other earthquake sequences.

Garcia, Marc [The University of Texas at El Paso, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Pn magnitude scale m b ( Pn ) for earthquakes along the equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge

We developed a short-period Pn magnitude scale m b (Pn) for earthquakes along the equatorial Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Due to low signal-to-noise ratios, teleseismic body wave magnitude and long-period surface wave magnitude cannot be confidently determined for small earthquakes of m b < 4. Local magnitude scales are also not useful for these events because the oceanic environment does not allow the propagation of crustal phases. However, regional high-frequency Pn waves from these small- to moderate-size (m b 3–6) earthquakes are well recorded in the equatorial Atlantic region and can be used to assign magnitudes. We measured over 2041 Pn peak amplitudes on vertical records from about 21 stations in northeastern Brazil and 11 stations in western Africa in the distance range of 700–3700 km. We analysed data from 189 events from the global centroid moment tensor catalogue to tie our m b (Pn) scale to M w so that seismic moments can be readily estimated. Pn arrivals show apparent group velocity between 7.9 km s –1 at short ranges (~1000 km) and up to 9.1 km s –1 at 3500 km. The measured peak amplitudes have a frequency between 0.8 and 3 Hz at 1000–1800 km, but at greater distances, 1800–3700 km, they show a remarkably consistent frequency of about 0.8 Hz. The peak amplitude attenuates at a higher rate at short distances (~0.65 magnitude units between 700 and 2000 km) but attenuates at a lower rate at long distances (~0.35 magnitude units between 2000 and 3700 km). The low rate of amplitude decay with distance and nearly constant frequency content of the peak amplitudes suggest that Pn waves propagate efficiently in the lower part of the upper mantle in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean basins. Furthermore, these are important attributes of oceanic Pn waves that can be used to assign magnitude for small- to moderate-size earthquakes in the equatorial mid-Atlantic region. The estimated station corrections correlate well with upper mantle low-velocity anomalies, especially in Brazil.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗
DOE OSTI2026

Limited Dynamic Earthquake Triggering in Nevada

Dynamic triggering occurs when seismic waves from distant large earthquakes temporarily alter stress conditions along faults, potentially triggering new earthquakes hundreds to thousands of kilometers away from the source. Previous studies have linked triggered seismicity to anthropogenic activities such as geothermal, oil, and gas production. Although these activities are present in Nevada, little work has been conducted to explore dynamically triggered seismicity in Nevada. Here, we analyze a newly published, high-resolution earthquake catalog for Nevada to identify local seismicity dynamically triggered by teleseismic events (Mw≥7) from 2008 to 2023. We identify 94 dynamically triggered earthquakes concentrated in four distinct regions, which qualitatively show a modest positive correlation with geothermal well locations. Triggered seismicity in Nevada is predominantly delayed, with some instantaneously triggered by Rayleigh waves. The prevalence of delayed triggering indicates that pore fluid interactions may play a critical role in controlling dynamic triggering susceptibility in Nevada. Our results demonstrate that dynamic triggering can provide valuable insight to help identify critically stressed regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-time reconstruction of ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes: A pilot study

This study presents a pilot investigation into a novel method for reconstructing real-time ground motion during small magnitude earthquakes (M < 4.5), removing the need for computationally expensive source characterization and simulation processes to assess ground shaking. Small magnitude earthquakes, which occur frequently and can be modeled as point sources, provide ideal conditions for evaluating real-time reconstruction methods. Utilizing sparse observation data, the method applies the Gappy Auto-Encoder (Gappy AE) algorithm for efficient field data reconstruction. This is the first study to apply the Gappy AE algorithm to earthquake ground motion reconstruction. Numerical experiments conducted with SW4 simulations demonstrate the method’s accuracy and speed across varying seismic scenarios. The reconstruction performance is further validated using real seismic data from the Berkeley area in California, USA, demonstrating the potential for practical application of real-time earthquake data reconstruction using Gappy AE. As a pilot investigation, it lays the groundwork for future applications to larger and more complex seismic events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of episodic supershear in the 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake, revealed by near-field records and computational modeling

Abstract The 2023 M7.8 Kahramanmaraş/Pazarcik earthquake was larger and more destructive than what had been expected. Here we analyzed nearfield seismic records and developed a dynamic rupture model that reconciles different currently conflicting inversion results and reveals spatially non-uniform propagation speeds in this earthquake, with predominantly supershear speeds observed along the Narli fault and at the southwest (SW) end of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). The model highlights the critical role of geometric complexity and heterogeneous frictional conditions in facilitating continued propagation and influencing rupture speed. We also constrained the conditions that allowed for the rupture to jump from the Narli fault to EAF and to generate the delayed backpropagating rupture towards the SW. Our findings have important implications for understanding earthquake hazards and guiding future response efforts and demonstrate the value of physics based dynamic modeling fused with near-field data in enhancing our understanding of earthquake mechanisms and improving risk assessment.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Nonergodic Ground-Motion Model for the San Francisco Bay Area for Small-Magnitude Earthquakes

ABSTRACT Recently, generative models have become a computationally efficient alternative to physics-based numerical simulations of ground motions. Neural networks can learn from existing ground-motion data to generate unobserved ground-motion data at new source and site locations. A key challenge with generative models is ensuring that predicted ground motions remain within a physically realistic range. For this purpose, we developed an empirical, nonergodic ground-motion model (GMM) for small-magnitude earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area based on about 5000 recordings per component for Mw ≤ 4 earthquakes. The nonergodic GMM predicts spatially varying median source, site, and path effects for both the Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) and the Fourier phase derivative (a proxy for duration), as well as the corresponding epistemic uncertainty for each term. For FAS, our model shows above-average source and site effects in the western part of the region and below-average effects in the eastern part, with regional effects exhibiting larger spatial correlation lengths with increasing frequency. For duration, the source term is negligible for small-magnitude earthquakes, and the site term leads to site-specific variations up to 5 s. Path effects for FAS and duration depend on the source–site pair and are extrapolated spatially using recent methods for path-effect modeling. The aleatory variability of the within-site within-path residuals is similar to the variability found in previous studies for other regions. The nonergodic model provides two key contributions: first, median adjustment terms that are transferable to larger magnitude earthquakes, further reducing aleatory variability in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; second, region-specific criteria for validating machine learning-based ground-motion generators to evaluate whether synthetic ground motions exhibit physically realistic source, site, and path effects.

Lacour, Maxime↗
DOE OSTI2023

EQSIM and RAJA: Enabling Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

Nearly 120 years ago, the great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 provided a stark and sobering view of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. According to USGS, the rupture along the San Andreas fault extended 296 miles (447 kilometers) and shook so violently that the motion could be felt as far north as Oregon and east into Nevada. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February of 2023, large earthquakes still present a significant potential danger to life and economic security as researchers work to develop ways to better understand earthquake phenomena and quantify associated risks.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Infrasound Detections of Low-Magnitude Earthquakes: Preliminary Results of the West Texas Acoustic Experiment

Infrasound observations have grown increasingly important for the monitoring of earthquakes. While large earthquakes generate infrasound that can be detected thousands of kilometers away, there are few near-field observations of infrasound generated by low-magnitude events. We describe preliminary results of the West Texas Acoustic Experiment, during which infrasound sensors collected continuous data in the Permian Basin for a six-month period spanning January—June 2023. During this time, more than 1000 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1.2 and 4.2 occurred within 50 km of the network. We used spectral analysis, array processing, and manual inspection of waveforms to evaluate arrivals of infrasound signals following 84 events with magnitudes between 2.5 and 4.2. Here, we describe eight such events and the infrasound signals associated with each. We find detections of seismic-to-acoustic infrasound signals associated with seven events. We also find strong evidence of a laterally-propagating, purely acoustic wave generated by an M2.9 earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for Iraq Based on the Updated Earthquake Catalog (1900-2021) and Ground Motion Characteristics

Onur et al. (2017) compiled the first comprehensive earthquake catalog for Iraq, covering 1900 to 2009 within 26°–40°N latitude and 36°–51°E longitude. This catalog was utilized in a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) by Abdulnaby et al. (2020) to aid in updating Iraq’s building code seismic provisions. Recently, we have updated the earthquake catalog for Iraq by adding earthquakes recorded from 2010 to 2021 and directly calculating moment magnitude (Mw) for about 2,800 earthquakes using the coda envelope methodology and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗