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Item Purpose: Presentation of LYNM DN DNE2 at the AFRL TIM. Internal Peer Review Status: This item has completed internal peer review. HQ review status: This item has been reviewed and approved by HQ.
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Abstract Most real‐world networks are both dynamic and multivariate in nature, meaning that the network is associated with various attributes and both the network structure and attributes evolve over time. Visualizing dynamic multivariate networks is of great significance to the visualization community because of their wide applications across multiple domains. However, it remains challenging because the techniques should focus on representing the network structure, attributes and their evolution concurrently. Many real‐world network analysis tasks require the concurrent usage of the three aspects of the dynamic multivariate networks. In this paper, we analyze current techniques and present a taxonomy to classify the existing visualization techniques based on three aspects: temporal encoding, topology encoding, and attribute encoding. Finally, we survey application areas and evaluation methods; and discuss challenges for future research.
Ferroelectric materials such as BaTiO 3 show tremendous potential for emerging advances in memory devices, particular neuromorphic type devices. High density of memory can be obtained by stabilising polar domain walls at the nanoscale, regions of discontinuity between the well-defined polarization order parameter, but little is known about what controls their structure and dynamics in real nanoscale materials. Indeed, chiral polar domain walls have been observed in heterogeneous ferroelectrics, such as oxygen-deficient BaTiO 3 , but very little is known about how such polar-domains walls interact with defects. Indeed, a critical understanding of how dynamics of domain-walls depend on point-defects is crucial to create engineered ferroelectric memory devices. For this work, we perform large-scale simulations of nansocale domain-wall dynamics in pristine and defective BaTiO 3 using reactive force-field developed by us earlier (Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2019, 21, 18240–18249), and capture their dynamical dependence on point defects using a graph dynamical neural-network approach, which we adapted to interrogate solids with well-defined order-parameters, and implemented using Pytorch based libraries. Our machine learning (ML) approach goes beyond the traditional post-processing methods to capture both spatial and temporal heterogeneities of large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of complex defective ferroelectric oxide materials. We crucially find that isolated oxygen vacancies introduce very localized spatial regions (~1–2 unit-cell in length) that show slow dipole relaxation due to formation of defect-dipoles, and that these defect-dipoles in turn slow the intrinsic dynamics of domain walls. Further, the roughness of domain walls, also influenced by vacancies, introduce dynamic heterogeneity along the domain-wall. As such we find a novel mechanism by which quenched disorder due to defects introduce dynamic heterogeneity thereby influencing response to external fields (particularly time varying fields) in a ferroelectric. Our study also emphasizes the need for creating digital twins of dynamical quantities to achieve autonomous in operando control of nanoscale switching.
A dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based fault prognosis framework is proposed in this study to predict the future fault probabilities of gradual faults. The proposed framework utilizes the trend in prediction error generated from data driven forecasting models to estimate the future fault beliefs. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is evaluated using the data from a Modelica-based virtual testbed. Overall, the developed framework demonstrates good potential in estimating future fault probabilities of gradual faults.
A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.
This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.
Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.
SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
The Dynamic Networks (DN) Experiment for FY24 (DNE2) is an experiment within DN with the goal of quantitatively evaluating the effectiveness of solutions developed so far by various researchers under the Low Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) program using a shared set of metrics and datasets. A key component of this experiment is the mimicking of a signature processing pipeline, and comparing currently accepted and standard-use processing methods to more state-of-the-art processes developed under DN. In this work, we focus specifically on the Event Characterization (EC) Focus Area (FA) of the pipeline, where a seismic event’s magnitude, yield and class are identified. We use Deep Learning (DL) to classify the type of events being processed as either earthquakes (EQs) or explosions (EXs) for three iterations of experiment datasets. The model is noticeably more confident and accurate in classifying explosions than earthquakes, reflecting a known shortcoming of the model, that being of a bias towards predicting explosions over earthquakes in the west coast due to training data biases.
Much success was achieved throughout the course of this project. A successful implementation of Dynamic Neural Network Optimization (D-NNO) was coupled with Adaptive Predictive Controls (APC) and a novel hardware installation comprised of an advanced sensor network (ASN) measuring mass-weighted averages of flue gas constituents above the horizontal superheater of a coal-fired utility boiler. From 2019 through 2023 (including an extension due to COVID delays), the team was able to prototype, evaluate, deploy, iterate, and ultimately finalize an advanced closed-loop control D-NNO system which demonstrated the ability to: •improve unit efficiency ~2.0% relative to unoptimized operation (represented as total fuel fired per MWh generated) •improve unit NOx emission rates 10%+ beyond static optimization baselines •improve unit temperature stability as much as 58% and on average 12% •improve operating load stability as much as 35% The culmination of this project has generated an advanced methodology of deploying specially designed recurrent neural networks (long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, encoder-decoder networks, transformers, etc.), customized trajectory planning and closed-loop optimization modules capable of adapting to live electric grid responses and demands, self-tuning and adaptive expert controls constantly adjusting prediction parameters to real-time unit behavior, and a hardware/software package able to reliably calculate net unit heat rate (NUHR) in real-time using flue gas constituents, machine learning, and known combustion relationships. Through this real-time NUHR value, immediate feedback on system adjustments relative to operating efficiency was available, allowing for rapid improvements to system performance. In addition to development and deployment of the advanced D-NNO system, the approach methodology has been readily commercialized through the project platform Griffin Open Systems, LLC, the D-NNO software platform host. Similar methodologies to those developed by this project have already been deployed at 5 other units across the United States, with another 6 implementations scheduled, and more expected. Over the course of the project, multiple academic papers were submitted and accepted for publication within esteemed academic journals, and PhD students were trained and graduated, as well as undergraduate students becoming involved and participating to project objectives.
Wetting films can develop in the corners of angular pores under strong wetting conditions. Modeling the dynamics of corner film remains elusive using direct numerical simulations because of the significant scale difference between main meniscus and corner film flow. In this paper, the modified interacting capillary bundle model (ICB), developed in our previous work to describe accurately corner film dynamics in a single square tube, is incorporated into a single-pressure dynamic pore network model (DPNM) to simulate imbibition in strongly wetting porous media with corner film flow. The traditional pore network is decomposed into several layers of interacting subpore networks where the 0th layer of subpore network simulates the main meniscus flow and higher layers the corner film flow. The fluid flow between different layers is captured by interlayer throats. In addition, the snap-off mechanism caused by the thickening of wetting corner film is considered. The accuracy of the developed model is validated for four cases: spontaneous imbibition in a single square tube, wetting fluid redistribution through corner films under a capillary pressure difference, snap off in a narrow throat connecting two large pores, and imbibition dynamics in a real microfluidic porous geometry. The validated model is then used to simulate both spontaneous and controlled imbibition in a pore network with random pore size distribution. Finally, the interaction between corner film and main meniscus flow in porous media is analyzed from a pore-scale perspective.
The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) into the existing power systems introduces tremendous benefits for enhanced sustainability but also poses inevitable challenges in terms of insufficient inertia, potential instability, and complex network dynamics, among others. However, the additional coupling introduced by the interactions among gridfollowing (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) IBRs and the other components (i.e., synchronous generators [SGs], loads, and network, etc.) has not been clearly explored. A holistic, scalable, and quantitative stability analysis framework with the control systems and power networks is still missing. Here, in this paper, to fill in the technical gaps, a holistic small-signal model of the entire system with both rotating generation units and IBRs is established. An extended power flow model with operation dynamics from both generator control schemes and power networks is proposed to provide the varying steady-state operating points for small-signal modeling. The proposed method is compared with MATLAB solvers, and the results show that the proposed approach has a minimum calculation time, which can be less than 12 seconds for a large-scale power system with up to 2,000 buses. Furthermore, a quantitative method is developed to identify the impacts of IBRs on system performance with emphases on the potential stability issues with GFL IBRs, additional benefits of employing GFM IBRs, the feasibility of replacing SGs with GFM IBRs, and the impact of penetration level of different kinds of generation units. Finally, a field island power system is used to verify the proposed approach, and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) tests are provided to further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.
Physical networks formed by ionizable polymers with ionic clusters as crosslinks are controlled by coupled dynamics that transcend from ionic clusters through chain motion to macroscopic response. Here, the coupled dynamics, across length scales, from the ionic clusters to the networks in toluene swollen polystyrene sulfonate networks, were directly correlated, as the electrostatic environment of the physical crosslinks was altered. The multiscale insight is attained by coupling neutron spin echo measurements with molecular dynamics simulations, carried out to times typical of relaxation of polymers in solutions. The experimental dynamic structure factor is in outstanding agreement with the one calculated from computer simulations, as the networks are perturbed by elevating the temperature and changing the electrostatic environment. In toluene, the long-lived clusters remain stable over hundreds of ns across a broad temperature range, while the polymer network remains dynamic. In conclusion, though the size of the clusters changes as the dielectric constant of the solvent is modified through the addition of ethanol, they remain stable but morph, enhancing the polymer chain dynamics.
The impact of polymer architecture on network dynamics and self-healing is presented using bottlebrushes containing side chains that are end-functionalized with 2-ureido-4[1H]-pyrimidinone (UPy). The synthesis of these materials is straightforward through a three-step process: (1) synthesizing rubbery poly(4-methylcaprolactone) macromonomers (p4MCL–OH) with a norbornene-based initiator, (2) functionalizing the terminal hydroxyl group with UPy–isocyanate (p4MCL–UPy), and (3) statistically copolymerizing p4MCL–OH and p4MCL–UPy via ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP) to form hydrogen-bonding bottlebrushes having a fraction (p) of side chains functionalized with UPy. Attaching UPy to the free end of bottlebrush side chains dilutes the impact of friction from complementary UPy interactions on segmental dynamics, leading to a much weaker dependence of the glass-transition temperature (T g ) on p than observed in linear analogues, while the activation energy to dissociate UPy–UPy bonds (41–47 kJ/mol) remains mostly unchanged. Longer side chains result in a competition between reducing T g and inducing entanglements that influence hydrogen-bonded network dynamics. Increasing the backbone length extends the sticky Rouse region without affecting the network modulus (G x ) or UPy–UPy dissociation time (τ s ). Gx scales linearly with p and ranges from 27 kPa to 1.6 MPa, while τs remains nearly constant in contrast to linear telechelic ionomers, implying a similar self-healability across bottlebrush networks containing different amounts of UPy. Furthermore, these stretchable networks with p ≤ 0.25 undergo self-healing upon repeated rupture and melt pressing at ≤100 °C while retaining similar tensile properties. In summary, decorating bottlebrush polymers with hydrogen bonds creates opportunities to independently manipulate associative network dynamics and mechanical moduli.
Dynamic networks composed of constituents that break and reform bonds reversibly are ubiquitous in nature owing to their modular architectures that enable functions like energy dissipation, self-healing, and even activity. While bond breaking depends only on the current configuration of attachment in these networks, reattachment depends also on the proximity of constituents. Therefore, dynamic networks composed of macroscale constituents (not benefited by the secondary interactions cohering analogous networks composed of molecular-scale constituents) must rely on primary bonds for cohesion and self-repair. Toward understanding how such macroscale networks might adaptively achieve this, we explore the uniaxial tensile response of 2D rafts composed of interlinked fire ants ( S. invicta ). Through experiments and discrete numerical modeling, we find that ant rafts adaptively stabilize their bonded ant-to-ant interactions in response to tensile strains, indicating catch bond dynamics. Consequently, low-strain rates that should theoretically induce creep mechanics of these rafts instead induce elastic-like response. Our results suggest that this force-stabilization delays dissolution of the rafts and improves toughness. Nevertheless, above 35 % strain low cohesion and stress localization cause nucleation and growth of voids whose coalescence patterns result from force-stabilization. These voids mitigate structural repair until initial raft densities are restored and ants can reconnect across defects. However mechanical recovery of ant rafts during cyclic loading suggests that—even upon reinstatement of initial densities—ants exhibit slower repair kinetics if they were recently loaded at faster strain rates. These results exemplify fire ants’ status as active agents capable of memory-driven, stimuli-response for potential inspiration of adaptive structural materials.
Understanding and early awareness of software vulnerabilities is vital for preventing and mitigating potential impacts from cybersecurity events. One step toward early characterization of software vulnerabilities may involve analyzing discussion and spread of information in online social networks. Prior work has used information from such discussions over multiple online forums to develop dynamic networks among users followed by analysis of structure, spread, and information evolution. In this work, we advance the state-of-the-art by focusing on data-driven learning of types, roles, and transition of roles exhibited by users over time. In social networks, users take on particular roles based on their actions and structure of the network. Identifying “meaningful” roles can help separate potential users of interest from the larger community, and identify patterns in a network. We will identify and compare roles found in online forums (e.g., Twitter) using techniques such as feature-based Non-negative Matrix Factorization coupled with topological and influence-based measures of centrality. Since users’ activities change over time, we also analyze role evolution in dynamic networks.