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At least 37 records · Page 2

Systemic Drivers of Electric-Grid-Caused Catastrophic Wildfires: Implications for Resilience in the United States

Wildfires are projected to increase in severity and frequency due to climate change, and the electric grid is both a cause of wildfires and is vulnerable to wildfires. Equipment from the electric grid accounts for 10% of fires burned in California and 3% of fires nationally. Recent catastrophic wildfires, such as the Lahaina Fire, Camp Fire, Marshall Fire, and Smokehouse Creek fires, were all started by electrical equipment and show how devastating these events can be because they threaten lives and structures. Vegetation structure, weather and winds, climate and vegetation response, land use, and human activities all impact the likelihood of severe wildfires. We explore the relationship between the built environment, electric grid infrastructure specifically, and its role in causing catastrophic wildfires to find lessons learned for increasing resilience. Electric grid utility companies currently employ multiple methods to mitigate fire, including (1) early detection, (2) grid hardening, (3) vegetation management, and (4) pre-emptive shutoffs. Utility companies need to consider the conditions for wildfire and the impact that each mitigation strategy has on drivers of wildfire behavior, as a single solution will not be adequate. Utility companies need to work with stakeholders to develop a holistic strategy to reduce ignition likelihood and spread likelihood to reduce catastrophic wildfires and improve resiliency.

Eagleston, Holly (ORCID:0000000178175116)

Development and Testing of Femtosecond Laser Surface Processing (FLSP) Treated Guide Vanes for Application to Advanced Cryogenic Liquid Acquisition Devices

Liquid Acquisition Devices (LADs) are used inside propellant tanks in microgravity to collect liquid propellant to move towards the sump or outlet of a tank during expulsion or transfer. In microgravity, vehicle thrusters can produce necessary phase separation, but in the absence of thrust, surface tension is the driver of fluid behavior. Liquid in microgravity will tend to form a sphere to minimize surface area. If a LAD can be made more “attractive” to a propellant (omniphilic), then it should perform its function more effectively. This paper presents preliminary results on using femtosecond laser surface processing (FLSP) to change the wetting properties of a vane LAD. FLSP can make metals superhydrophilic or omniphilic; by controlling the applied laser parameters, the resulting micro and nanoscale surface features can be tailored to control and optimize hydrophilic/omniphilic properties. Two LAD galleries with guide vanes were recently fabricated, a control sample and an FLSP-treated sample. The LADs were ground tested and also implemented in a parabolic flight experiment. Based on contact angle and roll-off angle measurements of the surface-treated vane, FLSP appears to be a promising technique to improve efficiency of LADs

Liquid Acquisition Devices

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Driver Identification Dataset

The ORNL Driver Identification Dataset was created to collect and analyze driving behavior data from 50 different drivers. Each driver operated a 2014 Kenworth T270 Class 6 truck around Fort Collins, Colorado while various data sources recorded their driving behavior and vehicle performance. The dataset includes CANbus (Controller Area Network) data, GPS data, inertial measurement data, and biometric data from a heart rate monitor. A cyberattack was executed during each drive, which caused multiple dashboard warning lights to illuminate and set the tachometer and speedometer to zero, regardless of actual speed. The attack was stopped either after one minute or if the driver pulled over. By downloading the dataset, you agree to the following: 1) I will not use or disclose the data for any purpose other than Research as that term is defined in 10 CFR 745.102. 2) I will not, under any circumstances, request or accept private or linking identifiers for the data used. 3) I will not attempt to determine the identity of the individuals associated with the data. 4) I will use appropriate safeguards to prevent the use or disclose of the data for any purpose other than Research.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Climate, Hydrology, and Nutrients Control the Seasonality of Si Concentrations in Rivers

Abstract The seasonal behavior of fluvial dissolved silica (DSi) concentrations, termedDSi regime, mediates the timing of DSi delivery to downstream waters and thus governs river biogeochemical function and aquatic community condition. Previous work identified five distinct DSi regimes across rivers spanning the Northern Hemisphere, with many rivers exhibiting multiple DSi regimes over time. Several potential drivers of DSi regime behavior have been identified at small scales, including climate, land cover, and lithology, and yet the large‐scale spatiotemporal controls on DSi regimes have not been identified. We evaluate the role of environmental variables on the behavior of DSi regimes in nearly 200 rivers across the Northern Hemisphere using random forest models. Our models aim to elucidate the controls that give rise to (a) average DSi regime behavior, (b) interannual variability in DSi regime behavior (i.e., Annual DSi regime), and (c) controls on DSi regime shape (i.e., minimum and maximum DSi concentrations). Average DSi regime behavior across the period of record was classified accurately 59% of the time, whereas Annual DSi regime behavior was classified accurately 80% of the time. Climate and primary productivity variables were important in predicting Average DSi regime behavior, whereas climate and hydrologic variables were important in predicting Annual DSi regime behavior. Median nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations were important drivers of minimum and maximum DSi concentrations, indicating that these macronutrients may be important for seasonal DSi drawdown and rebound. Our findings demonstrate that fluctuations in climate, hydrology, and nutrient availability of rivers shape the temporal availability of fluvial DSi.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Lunar Exploration Architecture Level Key Drivers and Sensitivities

Strategic level analysis of the integrated behavior of lunar transportation and lunar surface systems architecture options is performed to assess the benefit, viability, affordability, and robustness of system design choices. This analysis employs both deterministic and probabilistic modeling techniques so that the extent of potential future uncertainties associated with each option are properly characterized. The results of these analyses are summarized in a predefined set of high-level Figures of Merit (FOMs) so as to provide senior NASA Constellation Program (CxP) and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management with pertinent information to better inform strategic level decision making. The strategic level exploration architecture model is designed to perform analysis at as high a level as possible but still capture those details that have major impacts on system performance. The strategic analysis methodology focuses on integrated performance, affordability, and risk analysis, and captures the linkages and feedbacks between these three areas. Each of these results leads into the determination of the high-level FOMs. This strategic level analysis methodology has been previously applied to Space Shuttle and International Space Station assessments and is now being applied to the development of the Constellation Program point-of-departure lunar architecture. This paper provides an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and the lunar exploration architecture analyses to date. In studying these analysis results, the strategic analysis team has identified and characterized key drivers affecting the integrated architecture behavior. These key drivers include inclusion of a cargo lander, mission rate, mission location, fixed-versus- variable costs/return on investment, and the requirement for probabilistic analysis. Results of sensitivity analysis performed on lunar exploration architecture scenarios are also presented.

Goodliff, Kandyce

Life prediction and constitutive behavior

One of the primary drivers that prompted the initiation of the hot section technology (HOST) program was the recognized need for improved cyclic durability of costly hot section components. All too frequently, fatigue in one form or another was directly responsible for the less than desired durability, and prospects for the future weren't going to improve unless a significant effort was mounted to increase our knowledge and understanding of the elements governing cyclic crack initiation and propagation lifetime. Certainly one of the important factors is the ability to perform accurate structural stress-strain analyses on a routine basis to determine the magnitudes of the localized stresses and strains since it is these localized conditions that govern the initiation and crack growth processes. Developing the ability to more accurately predict crack initiation lifetimes and cyclic crack growth rates for the complex loading conditions found in turbine engine hot sections is of course the ultimate goal of the life prediction research efforts. It has been found convenient to divide the research efforts into those dealing with nominally isotropic and anisotropic alloys; the latter for application to directionally solidified and single crystal turbine blades.

Halford, G. R.

Phases of Theories with ℤ 𝑁 1-Form Symmetry, and the Roles of Center Vortices and Magnetic Monopoles

We analyze the phases of theories having a microscopic ℤ 𝑁 1-form symmetry, starting with a topological BF theory and deforming it so that only the microscopic symmetry is preserved. These theories have a well-defined notion of confinement, prototypical examples being pure SU⁡(𝑁) and ℤ 𝑁 gauge theories in the continuum and on the lattice. Our analysis shows that the generic phases are in 𝑑 = 2, only the confined phase; in 𝑑 = 3, both the confined phase and the topological BF phase; and in 𝑑 = 4, the confined phase, the topological BF phase, and a Coulomb phase. We construct a ℤ𝑁 lattice gauge theory with a deformation that, surprisingly, produces up to (𝑁−1) photons. We give an interpretation of these findings in terms of the behaviors of two competing drivers of confinement—magnetic monopoles and center vortices—and conclude that proliferation of center vortices is necessary but insufficient for confinement, while proliferation of magnetic monopoles is both necessary and sufficient.

Color confinement

The Impact of Emerging Electronic Highway Control Systems on Motorist Information Requirements

Advanced forms of electronic and computerized control systems are being developed to optimize traffic flow in and between cities. Modern technology permits communication of real-time information via signs and auditory messages and allows motorists to plan ahead for safer and more efficient travel. This paper describes an on-going research program for defining drivers' information needs and behavior in response to various message types and modes of presentation. Human engineer design criteria for real-time displays will be investigated in the laboratory and in research vehicles with field testing in actual city corridors. The results will be incorporated into a design handbook for use by sign design engineers.

Huchingson, R. Dale

Thermal Analysis Methods for an Earth Entry Vehicle

Thermal analysis of a vehicle designed to return samples from another planet, such as the Earth Entry vehicle for the Mars Sample Return mission, presents several unique challenges. The Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) must contain Martian material samples after they have been collected and protect them from the high heating rates of entry into the Earth's atmosphere. This requirement necessitates inclusion of detailed thermal analysis early in the design of the vehicle. This paper will describe the challenges and solutions for a preliminary thermal analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle. The aeroheatina on the vehicle during entry would be the main driver for the thermal behavior. and is a complex function of time, spatial position on the vehicle, vehicle temperature, and trajectory parameters. Thus. the thermal analysis must be closely tied to the aeroheating analysis in order to make accurate predictions. Also, the thermal analysis must account for the material response of the ablative thermal protection system TPS. For the exo-atmospheric portion of the mission, the thermal analysis must include the orbital radiation fluxes on the surfaces. The thermal behavior must also be used to predict the structural response of the vehicle (the thermal stress and strains) and whether they remain within the capability of the materials. Thus, the thermal analysis requires ties to the three-dimensional geometry, the aeroheating analysis, the material response analysis, the orbital analysis. and the structural analysis. The goal of this paper is to describe to what degree that has been achieved.

Amundsen, Ruth M.

Thermal Analysis Methods For Earth Entry Vehicle

Thermal analysis of a vehicle designed to return samples from another planet, such as the Earth Entry vehicle for the Mars Sample Return mission, presents several unique challenges. The Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) must contain Martian material samples after they have been collected and protect them from the high heating rates of entry into the Earth's atmosphere. This requirement necessitates inclusion of detailed thermal analysis early in the design of the vehicle. This paper will describe the challenges and solutions for a preliminary thermal analysis of an Earth Entry Vehicle. The aeroheating on the vehicle during entry would be the main driver for the thermal behavior, and is a complex function of time, spatial position on the vehicle, vehicle temperature, and trajectory parameters. Thus, the thermal analysis must be closely tied to the aeroheating analysis in order to make accurate predictions. Also, the thermal analysis must account for the material response of the ablative thermal protection system (TPS). For the exo-atmospheric portion of the mission, the thermal analysis must include the orbital radiation fluxes on the surfaces. The thermal behavior must also be used to predict the structural response of the vehicle (the thermal stress and strains) and whether they remain within the capability of the materials. Thus, the thermal analysis requires ties to the three-dimensional geometry, the aeroheating analysis, the material response analysis, the orbital analysis, and the structural analysis. The goal of this paper is to describe to what degree that has been achieved.

Amundsen, Ruth M.

Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war

A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, which would inject 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere, could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history and significant impacts on agricultural productivity and the economy. These effects would be most severe for the first five years after the nuclear war and may last for more than a decade. This paper calculates how food availability would change by employing the Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium model. Under a robust world trading system, global food availability would drop by a few percentage points. If the war would destabilize trade, it would magnify by several times the negative ramifications of land productivity shocks on food availability. If exporting countries redirect production to domestic consumption at the expense of importing countries, it would lead to the destabilization of international trade. The analysis suggests that economic models aiming to inform policymakers require both economic behavior analysis and biophysical drivers. Policy lessons derived from a crop model can be significantly nuanced when coupled with economic feedback derived from economic models. Through the impact on yield, farmers could shift production among crops and reallocate land use to maximize profits, showing the importance of general equilibrium effects such as product and input substitution and international trade. Although the global impact on corn and soybean production would be significant when just considering crop production, it could be considerably smaller under the economic model. However, this would be at the expense of other sectors, including livestock. In addition, the costs borne from disruptions to climate would vary significantly across regions, with significant adverse effects in high latitude regions. The severity of the shocks in the high-latitude areas would marginalize the farmers' product and input substitution ability.

Nuclear war

Storm-Time Variability of Terrestrial Hydrogen Exosphere: Kinetic Simulation Results

Recent studies of TWINS Lyman-α observations have reported an increase in geocoronal column brightness during geomagnetic storms, indicating enhanced exospheric hydrogen atom density (NH). This suggests a complex role of exospheric neutrals in determining storm-time magnetosphere dynamics and their energy release through charge-exchange processes. We developed a Model for Analyzing Terrestrial Exosphere (MATE) to investigate storm-time exospheric behaviors and their physical drivers. MATE traces test hydrogen atoms backward in time from locations in the exosphere to a nominal exobase altitude of 500 km, employing Newtonian mechanics with gravitational force. The model then calculates the phase-space densities (PSDs) of test hydrogen atoms at the exobase using the Maxwellian distribution with physics-based exobase conditions from the TIMEGCM upper atmosphere model. MATE maps PSDs at the exobase to the exosphere using Liouville’s Theorem under collisionless assumptions and derives NH by integrating the PSDs across velocity space. We conducted MATE simulation before, during, and after a minor geomagnetic storm from 12 to 18 June 2008, and compared the model results with NH estimates from the TWINS geocorona data. MATE reproduces storm-time density enhancements soon after the minimum Dst is reached, matching well with a general trend of TWINS NH estimates. The results suggest that upper atmospheric heating during a geomagnetic storm increases the number of ballistic and escaping hydrogen atoms entering the exosphere from the exobase, thereby boosting NH. However, the magnitude of modeled NH mismatches the TWINS NH estimates. The potential mechanisms of this density discrepancy include the physics excluded in the MATE model — such as neutralneutral collisions, neutral-plasma charge exchange, solar radiation pressure, and photoionization — as well as the higher exobase hydrogen density of TIMEGCM compared to typical empirical values, which will be addressed in future.

Hyunju K Connor

Data Quality Assessment of Optiwatt Vehicle Telematics Data

In October 2024, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) received data from Optiwatt (Compass Global, Inc.) describing the driving and charging behavior of electric vehicle (EV) drivers. The data shared had been collected from approximately 10,000 vehicles and included vehicle specifications, driving information like odometer readings at the beginning and end of origin-destination pairs (i.e., trips with identification of home for trip start and end for Tesla vehicles), and charging information such as charging energy consumed per charge session and if the charge occurred at home. The vehicle data were provided from 9 EV makes and 18 EV models, with production years ranging from 2012–2024, but more than 9,500 of the vehicles were Tesla EVs. The data includes more than six million trips and more than three million charging events that occurred between June 2023 to Aug 2024 and collected from California and the Eastern United States. The purpose of this report is to review the quality of the data received from Optiwatt and the feedback INL received from Optiwatt after data concerns were shared with them.

33 - ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Drunk Driver Testing

Systems Technology, Inc. developed a technique to study/measure behavioral changes brought on by long term isolation is now being used in a system for determining whether a driver is too drunk to drive. Device is intended to discourage intoxicated drivers from taking to the road by advising them they are in no condition to operate a vehicle. System is being tested experimentally in California.

Source record

Assessing the behavioral realism of energy system models in light of the consumer adoption literature

Effective policymaking to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions demands an understanding of the complex drivers of, and barriers to, consumer adoption behavior via behaviorally realistic energy system models. Existing models tend to oversimplify by focusing on homogenized financial factors while neglecting consumer heterogeneity and non-monetary influences. This study develops and applies a comprehensive framework for evaluating the behavioral realism of consumer adoption models, informed by the adoption literature. It introduces a typology for factors influencing low-carbon technology adoption decisions: monetary and non-monetary factors relating to household characteristics, psychology, technological attributes, and contextual conditions. Next, reviews of the consumer adoption and decision-making literature identify the most influential adoption factor categories for distributed solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and air-source heat pumps. Finally, the extent to which a selection of energy system models accounts for these adoption factors is assessed. Existing models predominantly emphasize the economic aspects of technology, which are generally identified as the most important factors. Where the models fall short — in considering moderately important factor categories — sector-specific and agent-based models can offer more behaviorally realistic insights. This study sheds light on which types of factors are most important for consumer adoption decisions and investigates how well current models rise to the challenge of behavioral realism. The end-to-end analysis presented enables internally consistent comparisons across models and energy technologies. This research advances timely conversations on consumer adoption. It could inform more behaviorally realistic energy system modeling, and thereby more effective decarbonization policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky

Parametric study of an acoustic levitation system

The performance of an acoustic levitation system designed for the containerless processing of materials and consisting of a St. Clair generator and a reflector arranged in a six-axis configuration, is examined in order to define critical parameters of high-temperature systems and limitations of earth-based devices. The fields and forces along the axis of the system are measured and the forces are plotted versus body volume. It is found that for a range of shapes and sizes the levitation force is roughly proportional to body volume until the characteristic 'diameter' reaches a value of about lambda/2. A significant (i.e., factor of four) enhancement in the levitation force is obtained by curving the faces of the driver and reflector. In addition, the behavior of liquid materials in the acoustic fields is studied, and the radius at which the deformation of a levitated drop occurs is calculated.

Oran, W. A.