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NASA NTRS2013

Simulation and Comparison of Martian Surface Ionization Radiation

The spectrum of energetic particle radiation and corresponding doses at the surface of Mars is being characterized by the Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), one of ten science instruments on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity Rover. The time series of dose rate for the first 300 Sols after landing on Mars on August 6, 2012 is presented here. For the comparison to RAD measurements of dose rate, Martian surface ionization radiation is simulated by utilizing observed space quantities. The GCR primary radiation spectrum is calculated by using the Badhwar-O'Neill 2011 (BO11) galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model, which has been developed by utilizing all balloon and satellite GCR measurements since 1955 and the newer 1997-2012 Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) measurements. In the BO11 model, solar modulation of the GCR primary radiation spectrum is described in terms of the international smoothed sunspot number and a time delay function. For the transport of the impingent GCR primary radiation through Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of atmospheric thickness at each elevation is calculated using the vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and pressure made by Mars Global Surveyor measurements. At Gale Crater in the southern hemisphere, the seasonal variation of atmospheric thickness is accounted for the daily atmospheric pressure measurements of the MSL Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) by using low- and high-density models for cool- and warm-season, respectively. The spherically distributed atmospheric distance is traced along the slant path, and the resultant directional shielding by Martian atmosphere is coupled with Curiosity vehicle for dose estimates. We present predictions of dose rate and comparison to the RAD measurements. The simulation agrees to within +/- 20% with the RAD measurements showing clearly the variation of dose rate by heliospheric conditions, and presenting the sensitivity of dose rate by atmospheric pressure, which has been found from the RAD experiments and driven by thermal tides on Martian surface.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Estimation of the Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor

Current models to estimate radiation risk use the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort that received high doses and high dose rates of radiation. Transferring risks from these high dose rates to the low doses and dose rates received by astronauts in space is a source of uncertainty in our risk calculations. The solid cancer models recommended by BEIR VII [1], UNSCEAR [2], and Preston et al [3] is fitted adequately by a linear dose response model, which implies that low doses and dose rates would be estimated the same as high doses and dose rates. However animal and cell experiments imply there should be curvature in the dose response curve for tumor induction. Furthermore animal experiments that directly compare acute to chronic exposures show lower increases in tumor induction than acute exposures. A dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF) has been estimated and applied to transfer risks from the high doses and dose rates of the LSS cohort to low doses and dose rates such as from missions in space. The BEIR VII committee [1] combined DDREF estimates using the LSS cohort and animal experiments using Bayesian methods for their recommendation for a DDREF value of 1.5 with uncertainty. We reexamined the animal data considered by BEIR VII and included more animal data and human chromosome aberration data to improve the estimate for DDREF. Several experiments chosen by BEIR VII were deemed inappropriate for application to human risk models of solid cancer risk. Animal tumor experiments performed by Ullrich et al [4], Alpen et al [5], and Grahn et al [6] were analyzed to estimate the DDREF. Human chromosome aberration experiments performed on a sample of astronauts within NASA were also available to estimate the DDREF. The LSS cohort results reported by BEIR VII were combined with the new radiobiology results using Bayesian methods.

Chappell, L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Simulation of Earth-Moon-Mars Environments for the Assessment of Organ Doses

Space radiation environments for historically large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at solar minimum and solar maximum are simulated in order to characterize exposures to radio-sensitive organs for missions to low-Earth orbit (LEO), moon, and Mars. Primary and secondary particles for SPE and GCR are transported through the respective atmosphere of Earth or Mars, space vehicle, and astronaut s body tissues using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code. In LEO, exposures are reduced compared to deep space because particles are deflected by the Earth s magnetic field and absorbed by the solid body of the Earth. Geomagnetic transmission function as a function of altitude was applied for the particle flux of charged particles, and the shift or the organ exposures to higher velocity or lower stopping powers compared to those in deep space were analyzed. In the transport through Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of atmospheric thickness was calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution was implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each altitude. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at solar minimum and solar maximum was used for the particle flux simulation at various altitudes on the Martian surface. Finally, atmospheric shielding was coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. We made predictions of radiation dose equivalents and evaluated acute symptoms at LEO, moon, and Mars at solar minimum and solar maximum.

Kim, Myung-Hee↗
NASA NTRS1990

A radiological assessment of nuclear power and propulsion operations near Space Station Freedom

Scenarios were identified which involve the use of nuclear power systems in the vicinity of Space Station Freedom (SSF) and their radiological impact on the SSF crew was quantified. Several of the developed scenarios relate to the use of SSF as an evolutionary transportation node for lunar and Mars missions. In particular, radiation doses delivered to SSF crew were calculated for both the launch and subsequent return of a Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP) cargo vehicle and a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) personnel vehicle to low earth orbit. The use of nuclear power on co-orbiting platforms and the storage and handling issues associated with radioisotope power systems were also explored as they relate to SSF. A central philosophy in these analyses was the utilization of a radiation dose budget, defined as the difference between recommended dose limits from all radiation sources and estimated doses received by crew members from natural space radiations. Consequently, for each scenario examined, the dose budget concept was used to identify and quantify constraints on operational parameters such as launch separation distances, returned vehicle parking distances, and reactor shutdown times prior to vehicle approach. The results indicate that realistic scenarios do not exist which would preclude the use of nuclear power sources in the vicinity of SSF. The radiation dose to the SSF crew can be maintained at safe levels solely by implementing proper and reasonable operating procedures.

Bolch, Wesley E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ionizing Radiation Environment on the International Space Station: Performance vs. Expectations for Avionics and Material

The role of structural shielding mass in the design, verification, and in-flight performance of International Space Station (ISS), in both the natural and induced orbital ionizing radiation (IR) environments, is reported. Detailed consideration of the effects of both the natural and induced ionizing radiation environment during ISS design, development, and flight operations has produced a safe, efficient manned space platform that is largely immune to deleterious effects of the LEO ionizing radiation environment. The assumption of a small shielding mass for purposes of design and verification has been shown to be a valid worst-case approximation approach to design for reliability, though predicted dependences of single event effect (SEE) effects on latitude, longitude, SEP events, and spacecraft structural shielding mass are not observed. The Figure of Merit (FOM) method over predicts the rate for median shielding masses of about 10g/cm(exp 2) by only a factor of 3, while the Scott Effective Flux Approach (SEFA) method overestimated by about one order of magnitude as expected. The Integral Rectangular Parallelepiped (IRPP), SEFA, and FOM methods for estimating on-orbit (Single Event Upsets) SEU rates all utilize some version of the CREME-96 treatment of energetic particle interaction with structural shielding, which has been shown to underestimate the production of secondary particles in heavily shielded manned spacecraft. The need for more work directed to development of a practical understanding of secondary particle production in massive structural shielding for SEE design and verification is indicated. In contrast, total dose estimates using CAD based shielding mass distributions functions and the Shieldose Code provided a reasonable accurate estimate of accumulated dose in Grays internal to the ISS pressurized elements, albeit as a result of using worst-on-worst case assumptions (500 km altitude x 2) that compensate for ignoring both GCR and secondary particle production in massive structural shielding.

Koontz, Steven L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Summary and Annotated Bibliography of Measurement Error Corrections with Potential Application in Future Quesst Mission Community Noise Studies

This document is motivated by likely needs of the Quesst mission community response tests, which will culminate in data collection and estimation of dose-response regression relationships for consideration by domestic and international aviation regulators. Furthermore, basic research questions evaluating interactions between rates of community annoyance, dose levels, and indicators of the presence of rattle, vibration, and startle hinge on hypothesis testing in the context of regression models. For a variety of reasons, noise doses may be known only imprecisely and may not reflect the actual level experienced by responding subjects. These differences between true dose and estimated dose, be they systematic or random, constitute covariate measurement error. Available statistics literature speaks to the impacts of measurement error on regression models, both in terms of bias in estimated coefficients and predicted values, and in terms of the loss of statistical power for hypothesis testing. Given the particulars of a categorical annoyance response variable and a continuous noise dose predictor variable subject to measurement error during testing, the emphasis of this report is on findings and methods pertinent to generalized linear (and mixed) models likely to be employed during the Quesst mission community tests. We reach the following conclusions: 1. Of four reviewed methods, structural Bayesian measurement error models and simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) may be the most readily applicable to Quesst mission community noise study objectives. 2. If warranted, a linear measurement model can help model systematic sources of measurement error that the classical measurement error does not. 3. For its ready implementation and small additional input requirements, simulation extrapolation may be ideally suited for addressing secondary research questions involving interactions between annoyance, noise dose, and other factors through hypothesis testing. 4. For their flexibility and ability to propagate uncertainty, structural Bayesian hierarchical models have great appeal for mission purposes; some care may be needed in developing appropriate probability models describing actual noise exposure during testing. An annotated bibliography logs additional papers and resources that may be of value to analysts in other projects and disciplines.

Dose-Response Model↗
NASA NTRS1986

Effects of backing plates on the electron exposure of thin polymer films

The effects of backing plates on the radiation dose received by thin nylon films were calculated using recently developed multilayer electron transport codes. The film dose increased with increasing atomic number of the backing plate. The estimated dose could be off by a factor of 2 or more if the backing plate were ignored in the calculations.

Chang, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Radiation Environment on Mir Orbital Station During Solar Minimum

Space radiation poses a significant risk for the stay and rotation cycle of astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS). The ISS is in the same orbit as the Mir orbital station and as such, data acquired onboard the Mir station is of direct applicability to the ISS astronaut. During the seven NASA-Mir missions, data were acquired with a variety of both passive and active detectors, including measurements of astronaut doses. This paper describes these measurements and comparisons with measurements carried out by other groups. It is shown that trapped protons absorbed can be very well described by quadratic equation in In(p), where p is the atmospheric density. Similarly, the galactic cosmic ray absorbed dose is nearly exponentially related to the deceleration potential. The average radiation quality factor with the ICRP-60 definition is about 2.44. Using the measured quality factor, absorbed crew doses, and estimates of neutron dose equivalent, leads to crew stay times as short as 9 months during a deep solar minimum. The data are compared with in vivo dose estimates using chromosome aberrations (simple translocations and total exchange) on same astronauts.

Badhwar, Gautam D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Long-term modulation of galactic cosmic radiation and its model for space exploration

As the human exploration of space has received new attention in the United States, studies find that exposure to space radiation could adversely impact the mission design. Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR), with its very wide range of charges and energies, is particularly important for a mission to Mars, because it imposes a stiff mass penalty for spacecraft shielding. Dose equivalent versus shielding thickness calculations, show a rapid initial drop on exposure with thickness, but an asymptotic behavior at a higher shielding thickness. Uncertainties in the radiobiology are largely unknown. For a fixed radiation risk, this leads to large uncertainties in shielding thickness for small uncertainties in estimated dose. In this paper we investigate the application of steady-state, spherically-symmetric diffusion-convection theory of solar modulation to individual measurements of differential energy spectra from 1954 to 1989 in order to estimate the diffusion coefficient, kappa(r,t), as a function of time. We have correlated the diffusion coefficient to the Climax neutron monitor rates and show that, if the diffusion coefficient can be separated into independent functions of space and time: kappa(r,t)=K(t) k(sub 0) beta Pk(sub 1) (r), where beta is the particle velocity and P the rigidity, then (i) The time dependent quantity 1/K(t), which is proportional to the deceleration potential, phi(r,t), is linearly related to the Climax neutron monitor counting rate. (ii) The coefficients obtained from hydrogen or helium intensity measurements are the same. (iii) There are different correlation functions for odd and even solar cycles. (iv) The correlation function for the Climax neutron monitor counting rate for given time, t, can be used to estimate mean deceleration parameter phi(t) to within +/- 15% with 90% confidence. We have shown that k(r,t) determined from hydrogen and/or helium data, can be used to fit the oxygen and iron differential energy spectra with a root mean square error of about +/- 10%, and essentially independent of the particle charge or energy. We have also examined the ion chamber and C-14 measurements which allow the analysis to be extended from the year 1906 to 1990. Using this model we have defined reference GCR spectra at solar minimum and solar maximum. These can be used for space exploration studies and provide a quantitative estimate of the error in dose due to changes in GCR intensities.

Badhwan, G. D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose Error Impacts on A Collection of Realistic Dose-Response Curves Based on A NASA Sonic Boom Community Noise Survey

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to conduct surveys of community response to quiet supersonic flight to collect dose-response data for international regulators. Previous models of noise dose versus annoyance response ignored uncertainty in the noise dose experienced by survey respondents. This dose error causes attenuation bias and results in inaccurate dose-response relationships. The impacts of dose errors can be explored by introducing error into the dose estimates of a simulated community noise survey. The simulated population annoyance response is determined by specific noise response characteristics, including the onset of annoyance intercept, rate of increasing annoyance, participant intercept variability, and response rates. This paper explores the effects of dose errors on notional populations created by perturbing the noise response characteristics observed in participants in a recent NASA flight test, QSF18. The QSF18-based population parameters were shifted up to ±20% to create the study populations. For the anticipated dose range of the X-59, changes to the onset of annoyance intercept have the greatest impact on erroneous model results. Quantifying point estimate errors illustrates the impact of dose error, with errors up to 14 dB observed for a fixed high annoyance percentage.

dose-response modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dose Error Impacts on A Collection of Realistic Dose-Response Curves Based on A NASA Sonic Boom Community Noise Survey

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to conduct surveys of community response to quiet supersonic flight to collect dose-response data for international regulators. Previous models of noise dose versus annoyance response ignored uncertainty in the noise dose experienced by survey respondents. This dose error causes attenuation bias and results in inaccurate dose-response relationships. The impacts of dose errors can be explored by introducing error into the dose estimates of a simulated community noise survey. The simulated population annoyance response is determined by specific noise response characteristics, including the onset of annoyance intercept, rate of increasing annoyance, participant intercept variability, and response rates. This paper explores the effects of dose errors on notional populations created by perturbing the noise response characteristics observed in participants in a recent NASA flight test, QSF18. The QSF18-based population parameters were shifted up to ±20% to create the study populations. For the anticipated dose range of the X-59, changes to the onset of annoyance intercept have the greatest impact on erroneous model results. Quantifying point estimate errors illustrates the impact of dose error, with errors up to 14 dB observed for a fixed high annoyance percentage.

dose-response modeling↗
NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Proton dosimeter design for distributed body organs

A simple dosimeter design has been developed by NASA to monitor the space proton dose (in rads) to a distributed body organ as a linear combination of ion chambers with varying wall thickness. Estimated doses are given for ion chambers of thickness 2, 3, 4, and 5 g/sq cm. The analytical equation used to calculate the dose distribution factor is also given.

Wilson, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cancer Risk Map for the Surface of Mars

We discuss calculations of the median and 95th percentile cancer risks on the surface of Mars for different solar conditions. The NASA Space Radiation Cancer Risk 2010 model is used to estimate gender and age specific cancer incidence and mortality risks for astronauts exploring Mars. Organ specific fluence spectra and doses for large solar particle events (SPE) and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at various levels of solar activity are simulated using the HZETRN/QMSFRG computer code, and the 2010 version of the Badhwar and O Neill GCR model. The NASA JSC propensity model of SPE fluence and occurrence is used to consider upper bounds on SPE fluence for increasing mission lengths. In the transport of particles through the Mars atmosphere, a vertical distribution of Mars atmospheric thickness is calculated from the temperature and pressure data of Mars Global Surveyor, and the directional cosine distribution is implemented to describe the spherically distributed atmospheric distance along the slant path at each elevation on Mars. The resultant directional shielding by Mars atmosphere at each elevation is coupled with vehicle and body shielding for organ dose estimates. Astronaut cancer risks are mapped on the global topography of Mars, which was measured by the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter. Variation of cancer risk on the surface of Mars is due to a 16-km elevation range, and the large difference is obtained between the Tharsis Montes (Ascraeus, Pavonis, and Arsia) and the Hellas impact basin. Cancer incidence risks are found to be about 2-fold higher than mortality risks with a disproportionate increase in skin and thyroid cancers for all astronauts and breast cancer risk for female astronauts. The number of safe days on Mars to be below radiation limits at the 95th percent confidence level is reported for several Mission design scenarios.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Effect of a Mars Mission on Chromosome Damage in the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts

The radiation environment encountered during a manned mission to Mars will lead to significant elevation of biological damage in astronauts. Here we present estimates of the increased frequencies of chromosome aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of astronauts after a hypothetical Mars mission using radiation dose estimations and lymphocyte biology. Results will incorporate previously published data on in vivo induced chromosome damage in the blood lymphocytes of crewmembers after ISS and Mir missions, along with recent findings on the time dependant decay of chromosome aberrations after space flight.

George, Kerry A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗