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At least 37 records · Page 2

Tornadoes in Southeast South America: Mesoscale to Planetary-Scale Environments

Abstract A multiscale analysis of the environment supporting tornadoes in southeast South America (SESA) was conducted based on a self-constructed database of 74 reports. Composites of environmental and convective parameters from ERA5 were generated relative to tornado events. The distribution of the reported tornadoes maximizes over the Argentine plains, while events are rare close to the Andes and south of Sierras de Córdoba. Events are relatively common in all seasons except in winter. Proximity environment evolution shows enhanced instability, deep-layer vertical wind shear, storm-relative helicity, reduced convective inhibition, and a lowered lifting condensation level before or during the development of tornadic storms in SESA. No consistent signal in low-level wind shear is seen during tornado occurrence. However, a curved hodograph with counterclockwise rotation is present. The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) is also maximized prior to tornadogenesis, most strongly associated with enhanced CAPE. Differences in the convective environment between tornadoes in SESA and the U.S. Great Plains are discussed. On the synoptic scale, tornado events are associated with a strong anomalous trough crossing the southern Andes that triggers lee cyclogenesis, subsequently enhancing the South American low-level jet (SALLJ) that increases moisture advection to support deep convection. This synoptic trough also enhances vertical shear that, along with enhanced instability, sustains organized convection capable of producing tornadic storms. At planetary scales, the tornadic environment is modulated by Rossby wave trains that appear to be forced by convection near northern Australia. Madden–Julian oscillation phase 3 preferentially occurs 1–2 weeks ahead of tornado occurrence. Significance Statement The main goal of this study is to describe what atmospheric conditions (from local to global scales) are present prior to and during tornadic storms impacting southeast South America (SESA). Increasing potential for deep convection, wind shear, and potential for rotating updrafts, as well as reducing convective inhibition and cloud-base height, are predominant a few hours before and during the events in connection to low-level northerly winds enhancing moisture transport to the region. Remote convective activity near northern Australia appears to influence large-scale atmospheric circulation that subsequently triggers convective storms supporting tornadogenesis 1–2 weeks later in SESA. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for atmospheric processes occurring at different scales to understand and predict tornado occurrences.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Shape Optimization of Header Pipes in Power Plants for Enhanced Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability

In a power plant, the header pipe plays a pivotal role in optimizing the performance of diverse systems by serving as a central conduit for the collection and distribution of steam within the plant. This paper investigates the significance of header pipes within power plant setups, highlighting their critical influence on reliability, efficiency, and the performance of the power plant as a whole. The concept of shape optimization emerges as a crucial factor in power plant design and operation, with the potential to maximize performance while minimizing the use of materials. Shape optimization not only enhances efficiency but also contributes to reducing the environmental footprint of power plant installations. In this paper, we initially developed a methodology designed for optimizing header shapes with the primary goal of reducing the usage of costly new alloy materials and lowering the overall maintenance operation expenses. Secondly, we conducted a case study based on an authentic header sourced from an operational power plant.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Dynamically Learning Incentives for Load Control

As electrical generation becomes more distributed and volatile, and loads become more uncertain, controllability of distributed energy resources (DERs), regardless of their ownership status, will be necessary for grid reliability. Grid operators lack direct control over end-users' grid interactions, such as energy usage, but incentives can influence behavior -- for example, an end-user that receives a grid-driven incentive may adjust their consumption or expose relevant control variables in response. A key challenge in studying such incentives is the lack of data about human behavior, which usually motivates strong assumptions, such as distributional assumptions on compliance or rational utility-maximization. In this paper, we propose a general incentive mechanism in the form of a constrained optimization problem -- our approach is distinguished from prior work by modeling human behavior (e.g., reactions to an incentive) as an arbitrary unknown function. We propose feedback-based optimization algorithms to solve this problem that each leverage different amounts of information and/or measurements. We show that each converges to an asymptotically stable incentive with (near)-optimality guarantees given mild assumptions on the problem. Finally, we evaluate our proposed techniques in voltage regulation simulations on standard test beds. We test a variety of settings, including those that break assumptions required for theoretical convergence (e.g., convexity, smoothness) to capture realistic settings. In this evaluation, our proposed algorithms are able to find near-optimal incentives even when the reaction to an incentive is modeled by a theoretically difficult (yet realistic) function.

demand response↗

Effects of Planetary Speed Reduction Ratio on Mean Service Life

Planetary gear transmissions are compact speed reductions which use parallel-load paths to transmit high power. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single plane planetary transmission, the speed-reduction ratio must be greater than two for planet gears to exist. As the ratio increase, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a spur-gear planetary with a fixed size, speed reduction ratio, input speed, power and materials. The planetary gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the ball bearings and spur gears in the reduction. Planet-bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Savage, M.↗

Effects of Planetary Speed-Reduction Ratio on Mean Service Life

Planetary-gear transmissions are compact speed reductions which use parallel-load paths to transmit high power. The range of possible reduction ratios is bounded from below and above by limits on the relative size of the planet gears. For a single-plane planetary transmission, the speed-reduction ratio must be greater than two for planet gears to exist. As the ratio increases, so does the size of the planets relative to the sizes of the sun and ring. Which ratio is best for a planetary reduction can be resolved by studying a series of optimal designs. In this series, each design is obtained by maximizing the service life for a spur-gear planetary with a fixed size, speed-reduction ratio, input speed, power and materials. The planetary-gear reduction service life is modeled as a function of the two-parameter Weibull distributed service lives of the ball bearings and spur gears in the reduction. Planet-bearing life strongly influences the optimal reduction lives which point to an optimal planetary reduction ratio in the neighborhood of four to five.

Savage, M.↗

PREEMPT: Scalable Epidemic Interventions Using Submodular Optimization on Multi-GPU Systems

Preventing and slowing the spread of epidemics is achieved through techniques such as vaccination and social distancing. Given practical limitations on the number of vaccines and cost of administration, optimization becomes a necessity. Previous approaches using mathematical programming methods have shown to be effective but are limited by computational costs. In this work, we make several contributions: First, we present a new approach for intervention via maximizing the influence of vaccinated nodes on the network. We call this method \preempt. Next, we prove submodular properties associated with the objective function of our method so that it aids in construction of an efficient greedy approximation strategy. Consequently, we present a new parallel algorithm based on greedy hill climbing for \preempt, and present an efficient parallel implementation for distributed CPU-GPU heterogeneous platforms. Our results demonstrate that \preempt{} is able to achieve a significant reduction (up to 6.75$\times$) in the percentage of people infected on a city-scale network. We also show strong scaling results of \preempt{} on 128 nodes of the Summit supercomputer. Our parallel implementation is able to significantly reduce time to solution, from hours to minutes on large networks. This work represents a first-of-its-kind effort in parallelizing greedy hill climbing and applying it toward devising effective interventions for epidemics.

Minutoli, Marco↗

HBMax: Optimizing Memory Efficiency for Parallel Influence Maximization on Multicore Architectures

The goal of influence maximization is to select k most-influential vertices or seeds in a network, where influence is defined by a given diffusion process. The problem has a number of important applications such as viral marketing, information spread, and epidemic control. Although computing optimal seed set is NP-Hard, due to the submodular nature of the problem efficient approximation algorithms exist. However, even state-of-the-art parallel implementations are limited by a sampling step that incurs large memory footprints. This in turn limits the problem size reach and approximation quality. In this work, we study the memory footprint of the sampling process collecting reverse reachability information in the IMM algorithm over large real-world social networks. We present an adaptive and memory-efficient optimization approach for a state-of-the-art multi-threaded parallel influence maximization algorithm. Our approach,HuffMax, uses a portion of the reverse reachable (RR) sets collected by the algorithm to learn the characteristics of the graph. Then, it compresses the intermediate reverse reachability information with Huffman coding, and queries directly on the compressed data to preserve the memory savings obtained through compression. We also propose an efficient sampling strategy based on the distribution of RR sets, which can further reduce the computation time for typical social networks with long-tail distributions. Considering a NUMA architecture, we scale up our solution on 128-core CPUs and reduce the memory footprint by up to 45.7% with negligible time overhead (or even faster) and without perceivable loss of accuracy.

Chen, Xinyu↗

Innovative control mechanism for research and test reactors using mandrel-shaped control rods

Research and test reactors have historically played a pivotal role in supporting the initial development of nuclear reactors. They continue to provide essential data for enhancing fuel designs and material knowledge. However, with many such reactors aging and the growing demand for data to bolster advanced reactor development, it is more necessary to research potential design attributes of the next generation of research and test reactors. For test reactors dedicated to fuel and material testing, the design of control mechanisms significantly influences the stabilization of neutron flux levels in irradiation positions while sustaining criticality. This study presents an innovative control mechanism for potential research and test reactor designs. It employs small absorber rods that move in opposite axial directions to maintain axial symmetry of power and neutron flux during burnup cycles. These rods maximize reactivity worth while also offering flexibility to flatten the radial power distribution. An axial translation of the control mechanisms’ absorbers, as compared to the rotational movement of absorbers in control cylinders, also provides a benefit to available excess reactivity and cycle length. Additionally, this work utilizes a simplified core model of the Advanced Test Reactor to assess the performance of this control mechanism. Compared to the current control system based on rotating control cylinders, the new control mechanism has the potential to enhance, or at least maintain, neutronic performance parameters in this reactor design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Advanced Water Vapor Lidar Detection System

In the present water vapor lidar system, the detected signal is sent over long cables to a waveform digitizer in a CAMAC crate. This has the disadvantage of transmitting analog signals for a relatively long distance, which is subjected to pickup noise, leading to a decrease in the signal to noise ratio. Generally, errors in the measurement of water vapor with the DIAL method arise from both random and systematic sources. Systematic errors in DIAL measurements are caused by both atmospheric and instrumentation effects. The selection of the on-line alexandrite laser with a narrow linewidth, suitable intensity and high spectral purity, and its operation at the center of the water vapor lines, ensures minimum influence in the DIAL measurement that are caused by the laser spectral distribution and avoid system overloads. Random errors are caused by noise in the detected signal. Variability of the photon statistics in the lidar return signal, noise resulting from detector dark current, and noise in the background signal are the main sources of random error. This type of error can be minimized by maximizing the signal to noise ratio. The increase in the signal to noise ratio can be achieved by several ways. One way is to increase the laser pulse energy, by increasing its amplitude or the pulse repetition rate. Another way, is to use a detector system with higher quantum efficiency and lower noise, on the other hand, the selection of a narrow band optical filter that rejects most of the day background light and retains high optical efficiency is an important issue. Following acquisition of the lidar data, we minimize random errors in the DIAL measurement by averaging the data, but this will result in the reduction of the vertical and horizontal resolutions. Thus, a trade off is necessary to achieve a balance between the spatial resolution and the measurement precision. Therefore, the main goal of this research effort is to increase the signal to noise ratio by a factor of 10 over the current system, using a newly evaluated, very low noise avalanche photo diode detector and constructing a 10 MHz waveform digitizer which will replace the current CAMAC system.

Elsayed-Ali, Hani↗

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A first scramjet study

A variety of related scramjet engine topics are examined. The flow is assumed to be 1-D, the gas is thermally and calorically perfect, and focus is on low hypersonic Mach numbers. The thrust and lift of an exposed half nozzle, which is used on the aerospace plane, is evaluated as well as a fully confined nozzle. A rough estimate of the drag of an aerospace plane is provided. Thermal effects and shock waves are next discussed. A parametric scramjet model is then presented based on the influence coefficient method, which evaluates the dominant scramjet processes. The independent parameters are the ratio of specific heats, a nondimensional heat addition parameter, and four Mach numbers. The total thrust generated by the combustor and nozzle is shown to be independent of the heat release distribution and the combustor exit Mach number, providing thermal choking is avoided. An operating condition for the combustor is found that maximizes the thrust. An alternative condition is explored when this optimum is no longer realistic. This condition provides a favorable pressure gradient and a reasonable area ratio for the combustor. Parametric results based on the model is provided.

Emanuel, George↗

Maximizing oil production from water alternating gas (CO 2 ) injection into residual oil zones: The impact of oil saturation and heterogeneity

Residual oil zones (ROZs) are widespread reservoirs, characterized by oil at residual saturation, either underlying oil fields (brownfield) or lateral (greenfield) to such fields. These reservoirs have the potential to produce volumes of oil sufficiently significant to make appreciable impacts on the US’s oil reserves and associated incidental CO 2 sequestration. The objective of this study is to improve our understanding the impact of heterogeneous and low oil saturations, in brownfield ROZs, on the effectiveness of water alternating gas (WAG) injection strategies. ROZs occur in the Permian Basin and elsewhere, and operators are using CO 2 injection for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in these zones. The consensus model for the formation of ROZs is that they were formed by the effect of faster regional aquifer flow, acting over millions of years. Both the magnitude of oil saturation and the spatial distribution of oil differ from water-flooded main pay zones (MPZs). To explore the most effective injection strategies, we conducted simulations of CO 2 injection into synthetic geologic reservoirs. These simulations focused on injection into reservoirs subject to either man-made waterflooding or long-term natural waterflooding. By exploring the impact of varying: oil saturation; well patterns; reservoir heterogeneity; and permeability anisotropy, we attempt to quantify the factors that most influence the effectiveness of WAG injection. WAG ratios (the ratio of injected water and CO 2 , in reservoir volumes) of interest are those that either minimize the net CO 2 utilization ratios or maximize oil production rates. In general, the most effective WAG ratios for ROZs, are consistently less than those observed undergoing CO 2 injection in the same geologic reservoir models after traditional (man-made) waterflooding. This work demonstrates that most favorable WAG ratios for oil production in ROZs are different from those in traditional MPZs because of oil saturation differences. Therefore, CO 2 injection into both zones or directly copying WAG injection designs from MPZs to ROZs might not maximize oil production.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Quantifying the Opportunity Limits of Automatic Residential Electric Load Shaping

Electric utility residential demand response programs typically reduce load a few times a year during periods of peak energy use. In the future, utilities and consumers may monetarily and environmentally benefit from continuously shaping load by alternatively encouraging or discouraging the use of electricity. One way to shape load and introduce elasticity is to broadcast forecasts of dynamic electricity prices that orchestrate electricity supply and demand in order to maximize the efficiency of conventional generation and the use of renewable resources including wind and solar energy. A binary control algorithm that influences the on and off states of end uses was developed and applied to empirical time series data to estimate price-based instantaneous opportunities for shedding and adding electric load. To overcome the limitations of traditional stochastic methods in quantifying diverse, non-Gaussian, non-stationary distributions of observed appliance behaviour, recent developments in wavelet-based analysis were applied to capture and simulate time-frequency domain behaviour. The performance of autoregressive and spectral reconstruction methods was compared, with phase reconstruction providing the best simulation ensembles. Results show spatiotemporal differences in the amount of load that can be shed and added, which suggest further investigation is warranted in estimating the benefits anticipated from the wide-scale deployment of continuous automatic residential load shaping. Empirical data and documented software code are included to assist in reproducing and extending this work.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A synthetic co-culture for bioproduction of ammonia from methane and air

Abstract Fixed nitrogen fertilizers feed 50% of the global population, but most fixed nitrogen production occurs using energy-intensive Haber–Bosch-based chemistry combining nitrogen (N2) from air with gaseous hydrogen (H2) from methane (CH4) at high temperatures and pressures in large-scale facilities sensitive to supply chain disruptions. This work demonstrates the biological transformation of atmospheric N2 into ammonia (NH3) using CH4 as the sole carbon and energy source in a single vessel at ambient pressure and temperature, representing a biological “room-pressure and room-temperature” route to NH3 that could ultimately be developed to support compact, remote, NH3 production facilities amenable to distributed biomanufacturing. The synthetic microbial co-culture of engineered methanotroph Methylomicrobium buryatense (now Methylotuvimicrobium buryatense) and diazotroph Azotobacter vinelandii converted three CH4 molecules to l-lactate (C3H6O3) and powered gaseous N2 conversion to NH3. The design used division of labor and mutualistic metabolism strategies to address the oxygen sensitivity of nitrogenase and maximize CH4 oxidation efficiency. Media pH and salinity were central variables supporting co-cultivation. Carbon concentration heavily influenced NH3 production. Smaller-scale NH3 production near dispersed, abundant, and renewable CH4 sources could reduce disruption risks and capitalize on untapped energy resources. One-Sentence Summary Co-culture of engineered microorganisms Methylomicrobium buryatense and Azotobacter vinelandii facilitated the use of methane gas as a sole carbon feedstock to produce ammonia in an ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure, single-vessel system.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗

The influence of microstructure on the strength of reaction bonded silicon nitride /RBSN/

The effect of the microstructure of reaction bonded silicon nitride on strength is examined. The morphologies of the various microconstituents (alpha-matte, beta-spikes, residual silicon and porosity) each play a role in determining the strength of the material. While density and hence percent porosity greatly affect strength, it is shown that the pore size and pore size distribution affect strength with equal importance. By minimizing the pore size and distribution and maximizing the alpha-beta ratio, a reaction bonded material (2.4 kg/cu m) has been produced with a room temperature modulus of rupture (three-point bending) of 297 MPa from a low green density starting material (1.5 kg/cu m).

Danforth, S. C.↗

Pinatubo Aerosol Global-to-Micro-Scale Evolution: A Unified Picture From Space, Air, and Ground Measurements

We combine a variety of measurements to develop a composite picture of the post-Pinatubo aerosol and assess the consistency and uncertainties of the measurement and retrieval techniques Satellite infrared spectroscopy, particle morphology, and evaporation temperature measurements are in accord with theoretical calculations In showing a dominant particle composition of H2SO4-H2O mature with H2SO4 weight traction of 65-80% for most stratospheric temperatures and humidities. Important exceptions are: (1) the presence of volcanic ash at all attitudes initially and in a layer just above the tropopause until at least March 1992, and (2) much smaller H2SO4 weight fractions at the low temperatures attained In high latitude winters and at the tropical tropopause. Laboratory spectroscopy and theoretical calculations yield wavelength- and temperature-dependent refractive indices for the dominant H2SO4-H2O droplets. These in turn permit derivation of particle size spectra from measured optical depth spectra for comparison to direct measurements by impactors and optical counters, All three techniques paint a generally consistent picture of the evolution of R(sub eff) the effective, or area-weighted, particle radius. In the first month after the eruption, although particle numbers increased by orders of magnitude, R(sub eff) was similar to the pre-eruption value of 0.1 to 0.2 microns because both small (r less than 0.2 microns) and large (r greater than 0.6 microns) particles increased in number. Over the next 3-6 months, R(sub eff) increased to about 0.5 microns, reflecting particle growth through condensation and coagulation. In general, R(sub eff) continued to increase for about a year after the eruption. Extinction spectra computed from in situ size distribution measurements are consistent with optical depth measurements, which show spectra with maxima initially at wavelengths of 0.42 microns or less, and thereafter progressively increasing to between 0.78 and 1 micron. Not until 1993 does optical depth spectra begin to show a clear return to the preeruption signature of maximizing at the shortest visible wavelengths or in the near UV. This coupled evolution in particle size distribution and optical depth spectra helps explain the relationship between the global maps of 0.5- and 1.0-kilometer optical depth derived from the AVHRR and SAGE satellite measurements. It also sets a context for evaluating remaining uncertainties in each of these satellite data products. We also show how the effects of wavelength-dependent refractive index on backscatter spectra can influence particle sizes retrieved from multiwavelength lidar measurements.

Russell, Philip B.↗

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Utah FORGE 4-2492: Design and Implementation of Innovative Stimulation Treatments to Maximize Energy Recovery - Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Design and Implementation of Innovative Stimulation Treatments to Maximize Energy Recovery Efficiency at the Utah FORGE Site project by The University of Texas at Austin, presented by Professor Mukul M. Sharma. The project's objectives were to place fractures uniformly in a horizontal well (improve cluster efficiency) to ensure uniform distribution of flow into all hydraulic fractures, maximize the area of the created fracture network, ensure connectivity of the fractures from the injector to the producer, and optimize fracture size. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on September 7, 2023. The workshop provided a valuable opportunity to explore the progress made in each of the 17 Research and Development projects funded under Solicitation 2020-1 which aim to enhance our understanding of the crucial factors influencing the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) reservoirs and resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗